Neil Ferguson (epidemiologist)

{{short description|British epidemiologist and researcher}} {{Use British English|date=June 2022}} {{Use dmy dates|date=June 2022}} {{Infobox scientist | honorific_prefix =  | name = Neil Ferguson | honorific_suffix = {{postnom|country=GBR|size=100|OBE|FMedSci}} | image = 180515 ferguson neil sph 020.jpg | image_size = | alt = | caption = Ferguson in 2018 | native_name = | native_name_lang = | birth_name = Neil Morris Ferguson | birth_date = {{birth year and age|1968}} | birth_place = Whitehaven, Cumberland, England | death_date =  | death_place = | death_cause = | citizenship = | other_names = | field = Epidemiology | known_for = Mathematical modelling of the COVID-19 pandemic | home_town = | title = | boards =  | spouse = | partner = | children = | parents = | relatives = | awards = | education = Llanidloes High School<ref name=ft/> | alma_mater = {{ubl|Lady Margaret Hall, Oxford (MA)|Linacre College, Oxford (DPhil)}} | thesis_title = Continuous interpolations from crystalline to dynamically triangulated random surfaces | thesis_url = https://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.239308 | thesis_year = 1994 | doctoral_advisor = John Wheater<ref name=dphil/> | academic_advisors = | influences =  | workplaces = Jameel Institute<br />Imperial College London | doctoral_students =  | notable_students =  | main_interests = | notable_works = | notable_ideas = | influenced =  | signature = | signature_alt = | signature_size = | website = {{Official URL}} }}

'''Neil Morris Ferguson''' (born 1968) is a British epidemiologist<ref name=AMC>{{Cite web|url=https://acmedsci.ac.uk/fellows/fellows-directory/ordinary-fellows/fellow/Professor-Neil-Ferguson-0006236|title=Professor Neil Ferguson {{!}} The Academy of Medical Sciences|website=acmedsci.ac.uk|access-date=3 April 2020}}</ref> and professor of mathematical biology, who specialises in the patterns of spread of infectious disease in humans and animals. He is the director of the Jameel Institute and the School of Public Health at Imperial College London.

Ferguson has used mathematical modelling to provide data on several disease outbreaks including the 2001 United Kingdom foot-and-mouth outbreak, the swine flu outbreak in 2009 in the UK, the 2012 Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus outbreak and the ebola epidemic in Western Africa in 2016. His work has also included research on mosquito-borne diseases including zika fever, yellow fever, dengue fever and malaria.

In February 2020, during the COVID-19 pandemic, which was first detected in China, Ferguson and his team used statistical models to estimate that cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) were significantly under-detected in China. He is part of the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team.

==Early life and education== Ferguson was born in Whitehaven, Cumberland,<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.freebmd.org.uk/cgi/information.pl?cite=YL9GPS7EIbumLTGTtEixFw&scan=1|title=Index entry|access-date=9 September 2020|work=FreeBMD|publisher=ONS}}</ref> but grew up in Mid Wales, where he attended Llanidloes High School.<ref name="ft">{{Cite web|url=https://www.ft.com/content/7e56cf84-6a9e-11ea-a3c9-1fe6fedcca75|title=Neil Ferguson, a virus modeller, sounds the alarm|work=Financial Times|year=2020|url-access=subscription|access-date=29 March 2020|last1=Clark |first1=Pilita}}</ref> His father was an educational psychologist, while his mother was a librarian who later became an Anglican priest.<ref name=ft/>

He received his Bachelor of Arts degree in physics in 1990 at Lady Margaret Hall, Oxford, and his Doctor of Philosophy degree in theoretical physics in 1994 at Linacre College, Oxford.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.lmh.ox.ac.uk/alumni/prominent-alumni|title=Prominent alumni|website=Lady Margaret Hall, Oxford|access-date=23 March 2020}}</ref><ref>{{cite book|date=June 1997|isbn=9780521461672|page=347|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=T6fWst-KdoYC&q=%22Continuous+interpolations+from+crystalline+to+dynamically+triangulated+random+surfaces%22&pg=PA347|title=Quantum Geometry: A Statistical Field Theory Approach|last1=Ambjørn|first1=Jan|last2=Durhuus|first2=Bergfinnur|last3=Jonsson|first3=Thordur|last4=Jonsson|first4=Orur|publisher=Cambridge University Press }}</ref> His doctoral research investigated interpolations from crystalline to dynamically triangulated random surfaces and was supervised by John Wheater.<ref name=ft/><ref name=dphil>{{cite thesis|first=Neil Morris|last=Ferguson|degree=DPhil|title=Continuous interpolations from crystalline to dynamically triangulated random surfaces|url=http://solo.bodleian.ox.ac.uk/permalink/f/89vilt/oxfaleph015728374|id={{EThOS|uk.bl.ethos.239308}}|oclc=556755377|publisher=University of Oxford|year=1994|archive-date=12 April 2020|access-date=14 February 2020|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200412155150/http://solo.bodleian.ox.ac.uk/primo-explore/fulldisplay?docid=oxfaleph015728374&vid=SOLO&search_scope=LSCOP_ALL&tab=local&lang=en_US&context=L|url-status=dead}}</ref><ref>{{cite web |last1=Woo |first1=Gordon |title=Clues on the Coronavirus Contagion |url=https://www.rms.com/blog/2020/01/27/clues-on-the-coronavirus-contagion/ |publisher=Risk Management Solutions |date=27 January 2020}}</ref> It was there that he attended a lecture by Robert May on modelling the HIV epidemic, which together with the death of a friend's brother from AIDS, interested him in pursuing the mathematical modelling of infectious diseases.<ref>{{Cite AV media|title=Political Thinking with Nick Robinson – The Neil Ferguson One – BBC Sounds|url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/p08j3kcg|access-date=2020-06-27|publisher=BBC|language=en-GB|time=5:25}}</ref>

==Career and research== Using mathematical and statistical models he studies the processes that influence the development, evolution and transmission of infectious diseases. These have included SARS, pandemic influenza, BSE/vCJD, foot-and-mouth disease, HIV and smallpox, in addition to bioterrorism.<ref name=Montagne2005>{{Cite book|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=7MBVAgAAQBAJ&pg=PA179|title=John R. La Montagne Memorial Symposium on Pandemic Influenza Research: Meeting Proceedings. Board on Population Health and Public Health Practice|date=2005|publisher=National Academies Press|isbn=978-0-309-09731-4|location=Washington, DC|pages=179–80|language=en}}</ref>

Ferguson was part of Roy Anderson's group of infectious disease scientists who moved from the University of Oxford to Imperial College in November 2000, and started working on modelling the 2001 United Kingdom foot-and-mouth outbreak a few months later.<ref name=Highfield>{{cite news |last1=Highfield |first1=Roger |author-link1=Roger Highfield |title=Has the A-team defeated the virus? |url=https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/science/science-news/4762033/Has-the-A-team-defeated-the-virus.html |work=The Telegraph |date=11 April 2001}}</ref><ref name=imp>[https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/193489/vice-dean-recognised-international-fellow-national-academy/ Vice-Dean recognised as International Fellow of the National Academy of Medicine.] Jack Stewart, Imperial College London, 21 October 2019. Retrieved 14 February 2020.</ref>

Ferguson and colleagues founded the Medical Research Council (MRC) Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis in 2008.<ref name= londonntd /> He advises the World Health Organization (WHO), the European Union, and the governments of the UK and United States, on the dynamics of infectious disease.<ref name=LSHTM/> He is an international member of the National Academy of Medicine,<ref name=imp/> a fellow of the Royal Statistical Society, and is on the editorial boards of ''PLOS Computational Biology'' and ''Journal of the Royal Society Interface''. He is a founding editor of the journal ''Epidemics''.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.fields.utoronto.ca/programs/scientific/10-11/drugresistance/CLS/index.html|title=Thematic Program on the Foundations of Computational Mathematics|website=fields.utoronto.ca – Fields Institute |access-date=10 February 2020}}</ref>

Since 2014 he is the director of the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Protection Research Unit for Modelling Methodology.<ref>{{Cite web|title=NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Modelling and Health Economics|url=http://www.imperial.ac.uk/medicine/departments/school-public-health/infectious-disease-epidemiology/hpru-modelling-healtheconomics/|access-date=2022-02-10|website=Imperial College London|language=en-GB}}</ref> Together with a number of other persons, in 2016 he proposed a World Serum Bank as a means of helping combat epidemics.<ref name="metcalf">{{cite journal |doi=10.1016/S0140-6736(16)30164-7|title=Use of serological surveys to generate key insights into the changing global landscape of infectious disease|year=2016|last1=Metcalf|first1=C Jessica E.|last2=Farrar|first2=Jeremy|author-link2=Jeremy Farrar|last3=Cutts|first3=Felicity T.|last4=Basta|first4=Nicole E.|last5=Graham|first5=Andrea L.|author-link5=Andrea L. Graham|last6=Lessler|first6=Justin|last7=Ferguson|first7=Neil M.|author-link7=Neil Ferguson (epidemiologist)|last8=Burke|first8=Donald S.|author-link8=Donald Burke|last9=Grenfell|first9=Bryan T.|author-link9=Bryan Grenfell|journal=The Lancet|volume=388|issue=10045|pages=728–30|pmid=27059886|pmc=5678936}}</ref>

In October 2019, Ferguson was appointed inaugural director of the Jameel Institute, a research institute at Imperial College London in the fields of epidemiology, mathematical modelling of infectious diseases and emergencies, environmental health, and health economics.<ref name="ft" /><ref>{{Cite web|title=Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics|url=http://www.imperial.ac.uk/a-z-research/jameel-institute/|access-date=2020-11-18|website=Imperial College London|language=en-GB}}</ref> The Jameel Institute was part of the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team.<ref>{{Cite web|title=The global impact of Imperial's COVID-19 Response Team {{!}} Imperial News {{!}} Imperial College London|url=https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/198737/the-global-impact-imperials-covid-19-response/|access-date=2020-11-18|website=Imperial News|date=11 August 2020 |language=en}}</ref>

As of February 2020, at Imperial College, London, he was a professor of mathematical biology,<ref name="londonntd">{{Cite web|url=https://www.londonntd.org/research/researchers/professor-neil-ferguson|title=Professor Neil Ferguson {{!}} LCNTDR|website=londonntd.org|access-date=10 February 2020}}</ref><ref name="ImperialBio">{{Cite web|url=https://www.imperial.ac.uk/people/neil.ferguson|title= Professor Neil Ferguson|publisher=Imperial College London|access-date=10 February 2020}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web|url=http://www.csap.cam.ac.uk/network/neil-ferguson/|title=Professor Neil Ferguson – Networks of evidence and expertise for public policy|publisher=University of Cambridge|access-date=10 February 2020|archive-date=8 January 2021|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210108045341/http://www.csap.cam.ac.uk/network/neil-ferguson/|url-status=dead}}</ref> director of the Jameel Institute (J-IDEA), head of the Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology in the School of Public Health and Vice-Dean for Academic Development in the Faculty of Medicine.<ref name="imp" />

As of March 2020, Ferguson was a member of the UK Department of Health advisory body called the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (NERVTAG), which advises the CMOUK.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.gov.uk/government/groups/new-and-emerging-respiratory-virus-threats-advisory-group|title=New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group|website=GOV.UK|language=en|access-date=2020-03-20}}</ref>

===Foot-and-mouth disease – 2001=== During the 2001 United Kingdom foot-and-mouth outbreak Ferguson worked on the team, led by Roy M. Anderson of Imperial College, creating mathematical models used to inform the UK Government of the most effective methods of preventing the spread of foot-and-mouth-disease.<ref>{{cite news |url=https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/science/science-news/4762033/Has-the-A-team-defeated-the-virus.html |title=Has the A-team defeated the virus? |last=Highfield |first=Roger |date=12 April 2001 |website=The Daily Telegraph |access-date=5 May 2020 |quote=The Imperial team alone had much to offer. Dr Neil Ferguson, a mathematical epidemiologist, had already started to analyse the numbers. He was alarmed by what his computer seemed to be saying: the disease was out of control.}}</ref> Ferguson published a journal article in ''Science'' magazine in April 2001 describing the mathematical models that were relied upon by the UK government to recommend the mass slaughter of millions of cows, sheep and pigs in the UK in order to stop the spread of the disease;<ref>{{cite journal |title=The Foot-and-Mouth Epidemic in Great Britain: Pattern of Spread and Impact of Interventions |last=Ferguson |first=Neil |date=11 May 2001 |journal=Science |volume=292 |issue=5519 |pages=1155–1160 |publisher=American Association for the Advancement of Science |doi=10.1126/science.1061020 |pmid=11303090 |bibcode=2001Sci...292.1155F |s2cid=16914744 |quote=The quality of fit of the model to the data was good (Fig. 3, A through C), given the fluctuating nature of daily case reports. Incidence predictions are plotted (Fig. 3D) for the best fit model and for the parameter sets corresponding to the upper and lower 95% confidence bounds on predicted total epidemic size (measured by R 0). The 95% confidence bounds on the final size of the epidemic were estimated as 44 to 64% of the population at risk. Here we assume the population at risk to be the approximately 45,000 farms in the currently infected areas in Great Britain, under the presumption that infection is prevented from spreading further.|doi-access=free }}</ref> over a decade later, the BBC would remind its readers Ferguson "was among those advising government on how to control the epidemic a decade ago."<ref>{{cite news |last1=Pallab Ghosh |title=Mass culling for foot-and-mouth 'may be unnecessary' |url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-13299666 |access-date=7 May 2020 |publisher=BBC |date=6 May 2011 |language=en |quote=Professor Neil Ferguson, of Imperial College London, was among those advising government on how to control the epidemic a decade ago.}}</ref>

===Bird flu – 2005=== In August 2005, Neil Ferguson said in an interview that bird flu could kill as many as 200 million people worldwide. He stated that "Around 40 million people died in 1918 Spanish flu outbreak" and that "There are six times more people on the planet now so you could scale it [the death toll from bird flu] up to around 200 million people probably".<ref>{{cite news |last=Sturcke |first=James |date=30 September 2005 |title=Bird flu pandemic 'could kill 150m' |url=https://www.theguardian.com/world/2005/sep/30/birdflu.jamessturcke |work=The Guardian |access-date=}}</ref> In the interview, he warned that failure to take swift action would be catastrophic for the United Kingdom, saying that "If the virus got as far as Britain, it would effectively be too late".<ref>{{cite news |date=3 August 2005 |title=UK would be 'overwhelmed' by bird flu |url=https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2005/aug/03/birdflu.health |work=The Guardian |access-date=}}</ref> The virus did not reach Britain and 74 persons worldwide died of bird flu in 2005.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2006/01/year-end-review-avian-flu-emerged-high-profile-issue-2005|title = YEAR-END REVIEW: Avian flu emerged as high-profile issue in 2005| date=5 January 2006 }}</ref>

===Swine flu – 2009=== thumb|Swine flu UK 2009<ref name=HPApress>{{cite web|title=2009 Press Releases|date=24 December 2009|publisher=Health Protection Agency|access-date=24 December 2009|url=http://www.hpa.org.uk/HPA/NewsCentre/NationalPressReleases/2009PressReleases/|archive-url=http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20100303155122/http://www.hpa.org.uk/HPA/NewsCentre/NationalPressReleases/2009PressReleases/|archive-date=3 March 2010|url-status=dead}}</ref> During the swine flu outbreak in 2009 in the UK, in an article titled "Closure of schools during an influenza pandemic" published in the ''Lancet Infectious Diseases'', Ferguson and colleagues endorsed the closure of schools to interrupt the course of the infection, slow further spread and buy time to research and produce a vaccine.<ref name="CauchemezFerguson2009"/><ref name="Wardrop2009">{{Cite news|last=Wardrop|first=Murray|url=https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/health/swine-flu/5874683/Swine-flu-schools-should-close-to-halt-spread-of-virus-ministers-told.html |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160127221126/http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/health/swine-flu/5874683/Swine-flu-schools-should-close-to-halt-spread-of-virus-ministers-told.html |archive-date=2016-01-27 |url-status=live|title=Swine flu: schools should close to halt spread of virus, ministers told|date=21 July 2009|work=The Telegraph|access-date=16 February 2020|language=en-GB|issn=0307-1235|url-access=subscription}}</ref> Ferguson's team reported on the economic and workforce effect school closure would have, particularly with a large percentage of doctors and nurses being women, of whom half had children under the age of 16.

They studied previous influenza pandemics including the 1918 flu pandemic, the influenza pandemic of 1957 and the 1968 flu pandemic. They also looked at the dynamics of the spread of influenza in France during French school holidays and noted that cases of flu dropped when schools closed and re-emerged when they reopened. They noted that when teachers in Israel went on strike during the flu season of 1999–2000, visits to doctors and the number of respiratory infections, fell by more than a fifth and more than two-fifths respectively.<ref name="Reuters2009">{{Cite news|url=https://www.reuters.com/article/us-flu-schools-idUSTRE56J4OO20090720|title=Closing schools won't stop pandemics: study|date=20 July 2009|work=Reuters|access-date=16 February 2020|editor-last=Walsh|editor-first=Eric|language=en}}</ref>

In the House of Lords Science and Technology Committee's "follow-up" to the swine flu epidemic in 2009, Ferguson recommended that to halt transmission of swine flu, actions would need to include "treating isolated cases with antivirals, public health measures such as school closures, travel restrictions around the region, mass use of antiviral prophylaxis in the population and possible use of vaccines".<ref name="CommitteeLords2009">{{cite book|title=Pandemic influenza: follow-up, 3rd report of session 2008–09, report with evidence|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=JtlP5_FDRJYC&pg=PA24|year=2009|publisher=The Stationery Office|isbn=978-0-10-844484-5|pages=24–26}}</ref> He was also asked why there was not a policy for vaccinating frontline healthcare workers at that time.<ref name="CommitteeLords2009"/>

===MERS-CoV – 2013=== In 2013, he contributed to research on MERS-CoV during the first MERS outbreak in the Middle East, and its link with dromedary camels.<ref name=Roos2013>{{Cite web|url=http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2013/12/nearly-identical-mers-cov-strains-found-camels-humans|title=Nearly identical MERS-CoV strains found in camels, humans|last=Roos|first=Robert|date=16 December 2013|website=CIDRAP|language=en|access-date=29 March 2020}}</ref>

===Ebola – 2014=== In 2014, as the director of the UK Medical Research Council's centre for outbreak analysis and modelling at Imperial, Ferguson provided data analysis for the WHO, on Ebola during the ebola epidemic in Western Africa.<ref name=Gallagher2014>{{Cite news|last=Gallagher|first=James|url=https://www.bbc.com/news/health-29060239|title=Ebola: How bad can it get?|date=6 September 2014|work=BBC News|access-date=15 February 2020|language=en-GB}}</ref> In the same year, he co-wrote a paper with Christopher J. M. Whitty and Jeremy Farrar, published in ''Nature'', titled "Infectious disease: Tough choices to reduce Ebola transmission",<ref name="chnf">{{cite journal |doi=10.1038/515192a|title=Infectious disease: Tough choices to reduce Ebola transmission|year=2014|last1=Whitty|first1=Christopher J. M.|author-link1=Chris Whitty|last2=Farrar|first2=Jeremy|author-link2=Jeremy Farrar|last3=Ferguson|first3=Neil|author-link3=Neil Ferguson (epidemiologist)|last4=Edmunds|first4=W. John|last5=Piot|first5=Peter|last6=Leach|first6=Melissa|last7=Davies|first7=Sally C.|journal=Nature|volume=515|issue=7526|pages=192–94|pmid=25391946|bibcode=2014Natur.515..192W|doi-access=free}}</ref> explaining the UK government's response to ebola in Sierra Leone, including the proposal to build and support centres where people could self-isolate voluntarily if they suspected they had the disease.<ref>{{Cite web|url=http://www.ebola-anthropology.net/key_messages/infectious-disease-tough-choices-to-reduce-ebola-transmission/|title=Infectious disease: Tough choices to reduce Ebola transmission {{!}} Ebola Response Anthropology Platform|website=ebola-anthropology.net|access-date=15 February 2020}}</ref>

=== Mosquito-borne diseases === Ferguson's work has included research on several mosquito-borne diseases including zika fever, yellow fever, dengue fever and malaria.<ref name=LSHTM>{{Cite web|url=https://www.lshtm.ac.uk/newsevents/events/optimal-use-first-licensed-dengue-vaccine|title=Optimal use of the first licensed dengue vaccine|website=LSHTM|language=en|access-date=15 February 2020}}</ref><ref name="FergusonGog2014">{{cite journal|last1=Ferguson|first1=Neil M.|author-link1=Neil Ferguson (epidemiologist)|last2=Gog|first2=Julia R.|author-link2=Julia Gog|last3=Ballesteros|first3=Sébastien|last4=Viboud|first4=Cécile|last5=Simonsen|first5=Lone|last6=Bjornstad|first6=Ottar N.|author6-link=Ottar Nordal Bjørnstad|last7=Shaman|first7=Jeffrey|last8=Chao|first8=Dennis L.|last9=Khan|first9=Farid|last10=Grenfell|first10=Bryan T.|title=Spatial Transmission of 2009 Pandemic Influenza in the US|journal=PLOS Computational Biology|volume=10|issue=6|year=2014|article-number=e1003635|issn=1553-7358|doi=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1003635|pmid=24921923 |pmc=4055284|bibcode=2014PLSCB..10E3635G |doi-access=free }}</ref>

====Zika – 2016==== In 2016, he co-wrote a paper titled "Countering the Zika epidemic in Latin America", published in ''Science''. Although disputed by at least one other biostatistician,<ref name=Cohen2017>{{Cite web|url=https://www.science.org/content/article/zika-has-all-disappeared-americas-why|title=Zika has all but disappeared in the Americas. Why?|last1=Cohen|first1=Jon|date=16 August 2017|website=Science {{!}} AAAS|language=en|access-date=16 February 2020}}</ref> Ferguson and his team concluded that the age distribution of future outbreaks of zika will likely differ and that a new large epidemic would be delayed for "at least a decade".<ref name=Counotte2029>{{Cite journal|last1=Counotte|first1=Michel J.|last2=Althaus|first2=Christian L.|last3=Low|first3=Nicola|last4=Riou|first4=Julien|date=26 December 2019|title=Impact of age-specific immunity on the timing and burden of the next Zika virus outbreak|journal=PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases|volume=13|issue=12|article-number=e0007978|doi=10.1371/journal.pntd.0007978|issn=1935-2727|pmc=6948816|pmid=31877200 |doi-access=free }}</ref> Cases of zika dropped after 2016.<ref name=Cohen2017/> That year, he predicted that the zika outbreak in the Americas would be over within three years, and clarified that "viruses tend to return when there are enough susceptible people, such as children, to sustain a new outbreak".<ref name=Szabo2016>{{Cite web|url=https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2016/07/14/zika-outbreak-may-have-peaked-brazil-researchers-say/87078324/|title=Zika outbreak may have peaked in Brazil, researchers say|last=Szabo|first=Liz|website=USA Today|language=en-US|access-date=16 February 2020}}</ref>

====Dengue virus – 2015==== thumb|''Wolbachia''<ref>{{Cite journal|date=16 March 2004|title=Genome Sequence of the Intracellular Bacterium Wolbachia|journal=PLOS Biology|language=en|volume=2|issue=3|page=e76|doi=10.1371/journal.pbio.0020076|issn=1545-7885|pmc=368170 |doi-access=free }}</ref> ''Wolbachia'' is a bacterium frequently found in insects but not in the ''Aedes aegypti'' mosquito, which carries the ''dengue virus''. In 2015, Ferguson published a paper titled "Modeling the impact on virus transmission of ''Wolbachia''-mediated blocking of dengue virus infection of ''Aedes aegypti''", in which he and his team presented their experiments and used a mathematical model to show that one strain of ''Wolbachia'', could reduce the ability of the ''Aedes aegypti'' mosquito to transmit dengue, with a 66–75% reduction in the basic reproduction number.<ref name=ImperialBio/><ref name=Zhang2020>{{Cite journal|last1=Zhang|first1=Hong|last2=Lui|first2=Roger|date=7 January 2020|title=Releasing Wolbachia-infected ''Aedes aegypti'' to prevent the spread of dengue virus: A mathematical study|journal=Infectious Disease Modelling|volume=5|pages=142–60|doi=10.1016/j.idm.2019.12.004|issn=2468-2152|pmc=6962337|pmid=31956742}}</ref>

===COVID-19 – 2020=== {{see also|Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team}}

During the COVID-19 pandemic, Neil Ferguson headed the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team.<ref name="nfn">{{cite journal |doi=10.1038/d41586-020-01003-6|title=Special report: The simulations driving the world's response to COVID-19|year=2020|last1=Adam|first1=David|journal=Nature|volume=580|issue=7803|pages=316–18|pmid=32242115|bibcode=2020Natur.580..316A|s2cid=256820433 |doi-access=}}</ref>

In February 2020, during the COVID-19 pandemic, using statistical models that considered data on the number of deaths and recoveries inside China, travellers outside China and in those affected that had returned home, Ferguson, Azra Ghani and their team estimated that detected cases of COVID-19 had significantly underestimated the actual spread of the disease in China.<ref name="sgfp">{{cite news |last1=Palmer |first1=James |title=As Numbers Soar, Here's Everything We Don't Know About the Coronavirus |url=https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/12/coronavirus-wuhan-china-outbreak/ |work=Foreign Policy |publisher=The Slate Group |date=12 February 2020}}</ref><ref name=Imperial11Feb2020>{{Cite web|url=https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/195217/coronavirus-fatality-rate-estimated-imperial-scientists/|title=Coronavirus fatality rate estimated by Imperial scientists |date=11 February 2020|website=Imperial News, Imperial College|language=en|access-date=16 February 2020}}</ref><ref name=Singh2020>{{Cite web|url=https://www.ccn.com/professor-says-coronavirus-infecting-50000-day-he-may-be-right/|title=Professor Says Coronavirus is Infecting 50,000 a Day, and He May be Right|last=Singh|first=Ayush|date=8 February 2020|website=CCN.com|language=en-US|access-date=16 February 2020}}</ref><ref name=Yang13Feb2020>{{Cite web|url=https://www.ft.com/content/bb73bd9c-4d92-11ea-95a0-43d18ec715f5|title=China accused of under-reporting coronavirus outbreak|work= Financial Times|last1=Yang|first1=Yuan|last2=Liu|first2=Nian|date=13 February 2020|access-date=17 February 2020|url-access=subscription}}</ref><ref>[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ALQTdCYGISw Professor Neil Ferguson on the current 2019-nCoV coronavirus outbreak]. Video Interview (5 February 2020)</ref> That month he stated that only 10% of cases were being detected in China.<ref name=Yang13Feb2020/> At the same time, it was noted that the number of available testing kits had come into question,<ref name=Singh2020/> and Ferguson calculated that only one in three cases coming into the UK was being detected.<ref name=BBCNews12Feb2020>{{Cite news|url=https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51470342|title=More coronavirus cases 'highly likely' in UK|date=12 February 2020|work=BBC News|access-date=15 February 2020|language=en-GB}}</ref> He stated "that approximately two-thirds of cases in travellers from China have not yet been detected. It is highly likely that some of these undetected cases will have started chains of transmission within the countries they entered."<ref name=Imperial24Feb20>{{Cite web|url=https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/195564/two-thirds-covid-19-cases-exported-from-mainland/|title=Two thirds of COVID-19 cases exported from mainland China may be undetected |location=London|website=Imperial News – Imperial College|date=22 February 2020 |language=en|access-date=9 March 2020}}</ref><ref name=NewSci>{{Cite web|url=https://www.newscientist.com/article/2234967-covid-19-our-chance-to-contain-the-coronavirus-may-already-be-over/|title=Covid-19: Our chance to contain the coronavirus may already be over|last=MacKenzie|first=Debora|website=New Scientist|language=en-US|access-date=9 March 2020}}</ref><ref name=JapanTimes26Feb20>{{Cite news|url=https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/02/26/world/science-health-world/covid-19-global-monitoring/|title=COVID-19 strains global monitoring systems to the extreme|date=26 February 2020|work=The Japan Times|access-date=9 March 2020|language=en-US|issn=0447-5763}}</ref> He said that the new coronavirus could affect up to 60% of the UK's population, in the worst-case scenario,<ref name="Petter2020">{{Cite web|url=https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/health-and-families/coronavirus-valentines-day-hugging-kissing-symptoms-outbreak-a9332976.html |archive-url=https://ghostarchive.org/archive/20220618/https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/health-and-families/coronavirus-valentines-day-hugging-kissing-symptoms-outbreak-a9332976.html |archive-date=18 June 2022 |url-access=subscription |url-status=live|title=Prevent spread of coronavirus with 'less hugging and kissing', says virologist|last=Petter|first=Olivia|date=13 February 2020|website=The Independent|language=en|access-date=16 February 2020}}</ref> and "suggest(ed) that the impact of the unfolding epidemic may be comparable to the major influenza pandemics of the twentieth century."<ref name=Imperial11Feb2020/><ref name=MacKenzieFeb2020>{{Cite web|url=https://www.newscientist.com/article/2233269-how-bad-is-the-covid-19-coronavirus-outbreak-likely-to-get/|title=How bad is the Covid-19 coronavirus outbreak likely to get?|last=MacKenzie|first=Debora|website=New Scientist|language=en-US|access-date=16 February 2020}}</ref><ref name=Neville13Feb2020>{{Cite web|url=https://www.ft.com/content/24c25834-4e57-11ea-95a0-43d18ec715f5|title= Data experts battle to map path of coronavirus outbreak |last=Neville|first=Sarah|date=13 February 2020|website=Financial Times|access-date=16 February 2020|url-access=subscription}}</ref> His team's publication in mid-March of the projections that the UK could face hundreds of thousands of deaths from COVID-19 without strict social distancing measures, gained widespread media attention.<ref name=Eubank>{{Cite journal|last1=Eubank|first1=S.|last2=Eckstrand|first2=I.|last3=Lewis|first3=B.|last4=Venkatramanan|first4=S.|last5=Marathe|first5=M.|last6=Barrett|first6=C. L.|date=8 April 2020|title=Commentary on Ferguson, et al., 'Impact of Non-pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) to Reduce COVID-19 Mortality and Healthcare Demand'|journal=Bulletin of Mathematical Biology|volume=82|issue=4|page=52|doi=10.1007/s11538-020-00726-x|issn=1522-9602|pmc=7140590|pmid=32270376}}</ref><ref name=Ciminelli>{{Cite journal|title=COVID-19 in Italy: An analysis of death registry data|url=https://voxeu.org/article/covid-19-italy-analysis-death-registry-data|last1=Ciminelli|first1=Gabriele|last2=Garcia-Mandicó|first2=Sílvia|date=22 April 2020|journal=Journal of Public Health (Oxford, England)|volume=42|issue=4|pages=723–730|doi=10.1093/pubmed/fdaa165|pmid=32935849|pmc=7543414|access-date=3 May 2020}}</ref> In late March, he calculated that with "strict social distancing, testing and isolation of infected cases", deaths in the UK could fall to less than 20,000.<ref name=Nature2Apr2020>{{Cite journal|last=Adam|first=David|date=2 April 2020|title=Special report: The simulations driving the world's response to COVID-19|journal=Nature|language=en|volume=580|issue=7803|pages=316–18|doi=10.1038/d41586-020-01003-6|pmid=32242115|bibcode=2020Natur.580..316A|s2cid=256820433 |doi-access=}}</ref>

Ferguson's research has raised questions by virologist Hendrik Streeck. Ferguson is the corresponding author for a paper titled "Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand", which describes itself as having "informed policymaking in the UK and other countries in recent weeks".<ref name="nfnpi">{{cite report |doi=10.25561/77482 |url=https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf |last1=Ferguson |first1=N |last2=Laydon |first2=D |last3=Nedjati Gilani |first3=G |last4=Imai |first4=N |last5=Ainslie |first5=K |last6=Baguelin |first6=M |last7=Bhatia |first7=S |last8=Boonyasiri |first8=A |last9=Cucunuba Perez |first9=Zulma |last10=Cuomo-Dannenburg |first10=G |last11=Dighe |first11=A |last12=Dorigatti |first12=I |last13=Fu |first13=H |last14=Gaythorpe |first14=K |last15=Green |first15=W |last16=Hamlet |first16=A |last17=Hinsley |first17=W |last18=Okell |first18=L |last19=Van Elsland |first19=S |last20=Thompson |first20=H |last21=Verity |first21=R |last22=Volz |first22=E |last23=Wang |first23=H |last24=Wang |first24=Y |last25=Walker |first25=P |last26=Winskill |first26=P |last27=Whittaker |first27=C |last28=Donnelly |first28=C |last29=Riley |first29=S |last30=Ghani |first30=A |title=Report 9: Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID19 mortality and healthcare demand |date=16 March 2020 |access-date=27 April 2020}}</ref> Streeck stated in reference to the paper "In the – really good – model studies by the Imperial College about the progress of the epidemic, the authors assume, for example, that 50 percent of households in which there is a case do not comply with the voluntary quarantine. Where does such an assumption come from? I think we should establish more facts."<ref name="hszeit">{{cite news |title=Einzelne Übertragungen im Supermarkt sind nicht das Problem |url=https://www.zeit.de/wissen/gesundheit/2020-04/hendrik-streeck-covid-19-heinsberg-symptome-infektionsschutz-massnahmen-studie |work=Die Zeit|language=de |date=6 April 2020}}</ref> The COVID-19 computer model which Ferguson authored (see CovidSim) was initially criticised as "unreliable" and "a buggy mess,"<ref>{{cite news |last1=Hannah Boland |last2=Ellie Zolfagharifard |title=Coding that led to lockdown was 'totally unreliable' and a 'buggy mess', say experts |url=https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2020/05/16/coding-led-lockdown-totally-unreliable-buggy-mess-say-experts/ |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200516154538/https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2020/05/16/coding-led-lockdown-totally-unreliable-buggy-mess-say-experts/ |archive-date=2020-05-16 |url-access=subscription |url-status=live |access-date=17 May 2020 |work=The Telegraph |date=16 May 2020 |quote=Professor Neil Ferguson's computer coding was derided as “totally unreliable” by leading figures}}</ref><ref>{{cite news |first1=David |last1=Richards |first2=Konstantin |last2=Boudnik |title=Neil Ferguson's Imperial model could be the most devastating software mistake of all time |url=https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2020/05/16/neil-fergusons-imperial-model-could-devastating-software-mistake/ |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200516131542/https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2020/05/16/neil-fergusons-imperial-model-could-devastating-software-mistake/ |archive-date=2020-05-16 |url-access=subscription |url-status=live |access-date=17 May 2020 |work=The Telegraph |date=16 May 2020}}</ref> but subsequent efforts to reproduce the results were successful.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Singh Chawla |first1=Dalmeet |date=8 June 2020 |title=Critiqued coronavirus simulation gets thumbs up from code-checking efforts |journal=Nature |volume=582 |issue=7812 |pages=323–324 |doi=10.1038/d41586-020-01685-y |pmid=32546864 |bibcode=2020Natur.582..323S |s2cid=256819969 |doi-access= }}</ref>

Ferguson has been a regular guest on BBC Radio 4's morning programme ''Today'' during the pandemic.

====Resignation from SAGE====

On 5 May 2020, it emerged that Ferguson had resigned from his position as a government advisor on the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) committee after admitting to "undermining" the government's messages on social distancing by trysting with a married woman, Antonia Staats.<ref name="Mikhailova5May2020">{{Cite news|last1=Mikhailova|first1=Anna|last2=Hope|first2=Christopher|last3=Gillard|first3=Michael|last4=Wells|first4=Louisa|date=5 May 2020|title=Exclusive: Government scientist Neil Ferguson resigns after breaking lockdown rules to meet his married lover|language=en-GB|work=The Telegraph|url=https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/05/exclusive-government-scientist-neil-ferguson-resigns-breaking/ |archive-url=https://ghostarchive.org/archive/20220112/https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/05/exclusive-government-scientist-neil-ferguson-resigns-breaking/ |archive-date=12 January 2022 |url-access=subscription |url-status=live|access-date=6 May 2020|issn=0307-1235}}{{cbignore}}</ref><ref>{{cite news|last1=Wright|first1=Oliver|date=6 May 2020|title=Top government adviser quits after breaking lockdown with his mistress|language=en|page=1|work=The Times|quote=She lives with her husband and their children in another house.}}</ref><ref name="BBCNews6May2020">{{cite news|date=6 May 2020|title=Coronavirus: Prof Neil Ferguson quits government role after 'undermining' lockdown|work=BBC News|url=https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-52553229|access-date=7 May 2020}}</ref> ''The Telegraph'' reported that she had visited his home at least two times. After resigning, Ferguson said "I acted in the belief that I was immune, having tested positive for coronavirus and completely isolated myself for almost two weeks after developing symptoms", adding that he regretted undermining "clear messages" about the need for social distancing. The Secretary of State for Health and Social Care, Matt Hancock, said that he was right to resign from his advisory position.<ref>{{Cite news|last1=Veselinovic|first1=Milena|last2=Smith-Spark|first2=Laura|date=6 May 2020|title=UK coronavirus adviser resigns after reports his lover visited during lockdown|publisher=CNN|url=https://edition.cnn.com/2020/05/05/uk/neil-ferguson-imperial-coronavirus-sage-gbr-intl/index.html|access-date=7 May 2020}}</ref> Ferguson did not receive a fine or prosecution for his actions, as at the time it was not illegal as he had not left his home;<ref>{{Cite news|last1=Wright|first1=Oliver|last2=Hamilton|first2=Fiona|date=7 May 2020|title=Neil Ferguson avoids prosecution for meeting his married lover|work=The Times|url=https://www.thetimes.com/article/neil-ferguson-avoids-prosecution-for-meeting-his-married-lover-ckx56nnqw|access-date=7 May 2020}}</ref> this legal loophole was later closed.<ref>{{Cite web|date=1 June 2020|title=New lockdown laws in England make it illegal for couples living apart to have sex indoors|url=https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/coronavirus-sex-lockdown-law-couples-indoors-england-a9542171.html |archive-url=https://ghostarchive.org/archive/20220618/https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/coronavirus-sex-lockdown-law-couples-indoors-england-a9542171.html |archive-date=18 June 2022 |url-access=subscription |url-status=live|access-date=2020-06-27|website=The Independent|language=en}}</ref> It was subsequently revealed that Ferguson had remained a member of the SAGE sub-committee NERVTAG and continued to contribute to the advisory committee SPI-M.<ref>{{cite news |last=Mendick |first=Robert |date=21 December 2020 |title='Professor Lockdown' makes a return to advise on the new coronavirus wave |url=https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/12/21/professor-lockdown-makes-return-advise-new-coronavirus-wave/ |archive-url=https://ghostarchive.org/archive/20220112/https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/12/21/professor-lockdown-makes-return-advise-new-coronavirus-wave/ |archive-date=12 January 2022 |url-access=subscription |url-status=live |work=The Daily Telegraph |access-date=4 July 2021}}{{cbignore}}</ref>

====Later reactions==== In August 2022, after revelations by former Chancellor Rishi Sunak, retired Supreme Court judge and prominent libertarian critic of government COVID lockdowns, Jonathan Sumption blamed "Report 9" of Ferguson's Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team in 2020 for "one of the gravest governmental failures of modern times".<ref name=JS>Jonathan Sumption, [https://www.thetimes.com/article/7bd50604-2559-11ed-a44e-83ef2a2167ff "Little by little the truth of lockdown is being admitted: it was a disaster"], ''The Sunday Times'', 28 August 2022, accessed 29 August 2022</ref>

===Awards and honours=== Ferguson was appointed an Officer of the British Empire (OBE) in the 2002 New Year Honours for his work modelling the 2001 United Kingdom foot-and-mouth outbreak. He was elected a Fellow of the Academy of Medical Sciences (FMedSci) in 2005.<ref name=fmedsci>{{Cite web|url=https://acmedsci.ac.uk/fellows/fellows-directory/ordinary-fellows/fellow/Professor-Neil-Ferguson-0006236|title=Professor Neil Ferguson | The Academy of Medical Sciences|website=acmedsci.ac.uk}}</ref> He is also an International Member of the US National Academy of Medicine.<ref name="imp" />

In recognition of his policy work on non-pharmaceutical intervention measures to address the COVID-19 pandemic, Ferguson received an Emergent Ventures award and associated grant money from the Mercatus Center.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://www2.gmu.edu/news/2020-03/masons-tyler-cowen-leads-efforts-incentivize-coronavirus-response |title=Mason's Tyler Cowen leads efforts to incentivize coronavirus response |last=Hollis |first=John |date=23 March 2020 |website= |publisher=George Mason University |access-date=21 January 2021 }}</ref>

===Selected publications=== {{Scholia}} Ferguson's publications<ref name=epmc>{{EuropePMC}}</ref><ref name=scopus>{{Scopus id}}</ref><ref name=gs>{{Google scholar id}}</ref> include: *Closure of schools during an influenza pandemic<ref name="CauchemezFerguson2009">{{cite journal|pmid= 19628172| last1=Cauchemez|first1=Simon|last2=Ferguson|first2=Neil M|last3=Wachtel|first3=Claude|last4=Tegnell|first4=Anders|last5=Saour|first5=Guillaume|last6=Duncan|first6=Ben|last7=Nicoll|first7=Angus|title=Closure of schools during an influenza pandemic|journal=The Lancet Infectious Diseases|volume=9|issue=8|year=2009|pages=473–81|issn=1473-3099|doi=10.1016/S1473-3099(09)70176-8| pmc=7106429}}</ref> *"Travel patterns in China"<ref name="JonesGarske2011">{{cite journal|last1=Jones|first1=James|last2=Garske|first2=Tini|last3=Yu|first3=Hongjie|last4=Peng|first4=Zhibin|last5=Ye|first5=Min|last6=Zhou|first6=Hang|last7=Cheng|first7=Xiaowen|last8=Wu|first8=Jiabing|last9=Ferguson|first9=Neil|title=Travel Patterns in China|journal=PLOS ONE|volume=6|issue=2|year=2011|article-number=e16364|issn=1932-6203|doi=10.1371/journal.pone.0016364|pmid=21311745|pmc=3032737|bibcode=2011PLoSO...616364G|doi-access=free}}</ref> * Identification of MERS-CoV in dromedary camels<ref name="FergusonVan Kerkhove2014">{{cite journal|last1=Ferguson|first1=Neil M|last2=Van Kerkhove|first2=Maria D|title=Identification of MERS-CoV in dromedary camels|journal=The Lancet Infectious Diseases|volume=14|issue=2|year=2014|pages=93–94|issn=1473-3099|doi=10.1016/S1473-3099(13)70691-1|pmid= 24355867|pmc=7129298|doi-access=free}}</ref> *Infectious disease: Tough choices to reduce Ebola transmission<ref name="WhittyFarrar2014">{{cite journal|last1=Whitty|first1=Christopher J. M.|last2=Farrar|first2=Jeremy|last3=Ferguson|first3=Neil|last4=Edmunds|first4=W. John|last5=Piot|first5=Peter|last6=Leach|first6=Melissa|last7=Davies|first7=Sally C.|title=Infectious disease: Tough choices to reduce Ebola transmission|journal=Nature|volume=515|issue=7526|year=2014|pages=192–94|issn=0028-0836|doi=10.1038/515192a|pmid=25391946|bibcode=2014Natur.515..192W|doi-access=free}}</ref> * Modelling the impact on virus transmission of Wolbachia-mediated blocking of dengue virus infection of Aedes aegypti<ref name="FergusonHue Kien2015">{{cite journal |last1=Ferguson |first1=Neil M. |last2=Hue Kien |first2=Duong Thi |last3=Clapham |first3=Hannah |last4=Aguas |first4=Ricardo |last5=Trung |first5=Vu Tuan |last6=Bich Chau |first6=Tran Nguyen |last7=Popovici |first7=Jean |last8=Ryan |first8=Peter A. |last9=O’Neill |first9=Scott L. |last10=McGraw |first10=Elizabeth A. |author-link10=Elizabeth McGraw |last11=Long |first11=Vo Thi |last12=Dui |first12=Le Thi |last13=Nguyen |first13=Hoa L. |last14=Vinh Chau |first14=Nguyen Van |last15=Wills |first15=Bridget |year=2015 |title=Modeling the impact on virus transmission ofWolbachia-mediated blocking of dengue virus infection ofAedes aegypti |journal=Science Translational Medicine |volume=7 |issue=279 |page=279ra37 |doi=10.1126/scitranslmed.3010370 |issn=1946-6234 |pmc=4390297 |pmid=25787763 |last16=Simmons |first16=Cameron P.}}</ref> *Assessing the epidemiological effect of wolbachia for dengue control<ref name="LambrechtsFerguson2015">{{cite journal|last1=Lambrechts|first1=Louis|last2=Ferguson|first2=Neil M|last3=Harris|first3=Eva|last4=Holmes|first4=Edward C|last5=McGraw|first5=Elizabeth A|last6=O'Neill|first6=Scott L|last7=Ooi|first7=Eng E|last8=Ritchie|first8=Scott A|last9=Ryan|first9=Peter A|last10=Scott|first10=Thomas W|last11=Simmons|first11=Cameron P|last12=Weaver|first12=Scott C|title=Assessing the epidemiological effect of wolbachia for dengue control|journal=The Lancet Infectious Diseases|volume=15|issue=7|year=2015|pages=862–66|issn=1473-3099|doi=10.1016/S1473-3099(15)00091-2|pmid=26051887 |pmc=4824166 }}</ref> *Countering the Zika epidemic in Latin America<ref name="FergusonCucunuba2016">{{cite journal|last1=Ferguson|first1=N. M.|last2=Cucunuba|first2=Z. M.|last3=Dorigatti|first3=I.|last4=Nedjati-Gilani|first4=G. L.|last5=Donnelly|first5=C. A.|last6=Basanez|first6=M.-G.|last7=Nouvellet|first7=P.|last8=Lessler|first8=J.|title=Countering the Zika epidemic in Latin America|journal=Science|volume=353|issue=6297|year=2016|pages=353–54|issn=0036-8075|doi=10.1126/science.aag0219|pmid=27417493 |pmc=5475255 |bibcode=2016Sci...353..353F}}</ref> * Challenges and opportunities in controlling mosquito-borne infections<ref name="Ferguson2018">{{cite journal|last1=Ferguson|first1=Neil M.|title=Challenges and opportunities in controlling mosquito-borne infections|journal=Nature|volume=559|issue=7715|year=2018|pages=490–97|issn=0028-0836|doi=10.1038/s41586-018-0318-5|pmid=30046071|bibcode=2018Natur.559..490F|hdl=10044/1/61974|s2cid=50786145|hdl-access=free}} {{free access}}</ref> * All reports published on COVID-19<ref name=COVIDReports>{{Cite web|url=http://www.imperial.ac.uk/medicine/departments/school-public-health/infectious-disease-epidemiology/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/news--wuhan-coronavirus/|title=COVID-19 reports|website=Imperial College London|language=en-GB|access-date=29 March 2020}}</ref> **Report 9: Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand<ref name=":0">{{cite web|url=https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf|title=Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID19 mortality and healthcare demand|author=((Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team))|date=16 March 2020}}</ref> **Estimating the number of infections and the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in 11 European countries<ref name=":1">{{cite web|url=https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-Europe-estimates-and-NPI-impact-30-03-2020.pdf|title=Estimating the number of infections and the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in 11 European countries|author=((Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team))|date=30 March 2020|page=35}}</ref>

==Personal life== Ferguson reported on 18 March 2020 that he had developed the symptoms of COVID-19, and self-isolated. He recovered after a mild illness.<ref name=Nature2Apr2020/><ref name=Proctor>{{Cite news|last=Proctor|first=Kate|url=https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/27/covid-19-coronavirus-westminster-uk-pm-health-secretary|title='There is a lot of Covid-19 in Westminster': how politicians fell ill|date=27 March 2020|work=The Guardian|access-date=2020-03-28|language=en-GB|issn=0261-3077}}</ref> Ferguson is separated from his wife and has one son.<ref>{{cite news |last1=Abe Hawken |title=Coronavirus UK: Professor Neil Ferguson's mother-in-law defends scientist shamed for breaking coronavirus lockdown |url=https://www.news.com.au/world/europe/coronavirus-uk-professor-neil-fergusons-motherinlaw-defends-scientist-shamed-for-breaking-coronavirus-lockdown/news-story/cb006943d2dde280963d526057401206 |access-date=7 May 2020 |work=News Corp Australia |date=7 May 2020 |language=en |quote=defended by his wife’s mother, who said he and her daughter Kim Polgreen [...] Dr Ferguson and her daughter Kim – who have a 16-year-old son together}}</ref>

== References == {{Reflist}}

{{DEFAULTSORT:Ferguson, Neil}} Category:1968 births Category:Living people Category:Academics of Imperial College London Category:Alumni of Lady Margaret Hall, Oxford Category:Alumni of Linacre College, Oxford Category:British epidemiologists Category:Fellows of the Royal Statistical Society Category:Mathematical and theoretical biology Category:Members of the National Academy of Medicine Category:Members of the Order of the British Empire Category:People educated at Llanidloes High School Category:NIHR Senior Investigators Category:Coronavirus researchers