Wave elections in the United States

{{Short description|Elections in which a political party makes major gains}} '''Wave elections''' in the United States are elections in which a political party makes major gains. Based on the "red states and blue states" color coding convention in use since 2000, wave elections have often been described as either "blue waves" or "red waves" depending on which party makes significant gains, referring to a major increase in seats held by either the Democratic Party (associated with blue) in the former, or the Republican Party (associated with red) in the latter.

Wave elections usually happen during midterm elections.<ref name="Midterm" /> There is no consensus definition of what level of gains is necessary to constitute a wave election,<ref name=AAbramowitz>{{cite news|last1=Abramowitz|first1=Alan|title=The Anti-Incumbent Election Myth|url=http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-anti-incumbent-election-myth/|access-date=23 June 2014|publisher=University of Virginia Center for Politics|date=22 December 2011}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web|url=https://ballotpedia.org/Wave_elections_(1918-2016)/Full_report|title=Wave elections (1918-2016)/Full report|website=Ballotpedia|language=en|access-date=2019-01-15}}</ref><ref>{{Cite news|url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2018/11/13/was-it-a-blue-wave-or-not-that-depends-on-how-you-define-a-wave/|title=Was it a 'blue wave' or not? That depends on how you define a 'wave.'|last=Green|first=Matthew|date=2018|newspaper=The Washington Post}}</ref> but the most recent midterm election year widely described as a wave election was 2018's blue wave, when the Democratic Party regained control of the House of Representatives and made a net gain of seven seats in gubernatorial elections.<ref>{{Cite web|last=Enten|first= Harry|date=2018-12-06|title=Latest House results confirm 2018 wasn't a blue wave. It was a blue tsunami. {{!}} CNN Politics|url=https://www.cnn.com/2018/12/06/politics/latest-house-vote-blue-wave/index.html|access-date=2021-06-25|website=CNN|language=en}}</ref><ref>{{Cite news|title=Analysis {{!}} Democrats pinned their hopes on a 'blue wave' in the midterms. Is that what happened?|language=en-US|newspaper=Washington Post|url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2018/11/07/how-argue-about-whether-these-midterms-were-blue-wave/|access-date=2021-06-25|issn=0190-8286}}</ref>

==Terminology== Political analyst Charlie Cook describes wave elections as the result of an "overarching, nationwide dynamic," such as a high or low presidential approval rating, economic conditions, and scandals.<ref name=CCook/><ref name=Washedup/> Cook contrasts wave elections with "micro-elections" in which neither party makes significant gains, and candidates, local issues, and other factors not strictly related to party alignment have a stronger role than in wave elections.<ref name=CCook>{{cite news|last1=Cook|first1=Charlie|title=Midterm Elections Could Be a Wave, But Who's Going to Drown?|url=http://www.nationaljournal.com/columns/off-to-the-races/midterm-elections-could-be-a-wave-but-who-s-going-to-drown-20130729|access-date=20 June 2014|work=National Journal|date=29 July 2013|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130801051017/http://www.nationaljournal.com/columns/off-to-the-races/midterm-elections-could-be-a-wave-but-who-s-going-to-drown-20130729|archive-date=1 August 2013}}</ref> Although several wave elections may occur in a row, wave elections are usually considered to be the exception rather than the norm.<ref name=Washedup>{{cite news|last1=Cook|first1=Charlie|title=Wave Elections Might Be Washed Up for Now|url=http://www.nationaljournal.com/columns/off-to-the-races/charlie-cook-wave-elections-might-be-washed-up-for-now-20110419|access-date=20 June 2014|work=National Journal|date=19 April 2011|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110421190717/http://www.nationaljournal.com/columns/off-to-the-races/charlie-cook-wave-elections-might-be-washed-up-for-now-20110419|archive-date=21 April 2011}}</ref> A pick-up of 20 seats in the United States House of Representatives has been used as a cut-off point by analysts such as Stuart Rothenberg.<ref name=MBai/><ref name=TMurse>{{cite news|last1=Murse|first1=Tom|title=What is a Wave Election?|url=http://uspolitics.about.com/od/CampaignsElections/fl/What-is-a-Wave-Election.htm|access-date=20 June 2014|publisher=About.com|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140713140450/http://uspolitics.about.com/od/CampaignsElections/fl/What-is-a-Wave-Election.htm|archive-date=13 July 2014}}</ref><ref name=Four>{{cite news|last1=Rothenberg|first1=Stuart|title=Are We Headed for Four Wave Elections in a Row?|url=http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.com/news/article/are-we-headed-for-four-wave-elections-in-a-row|access-date=20 June 2014|publisher=Rothenberg Report|date=3 February 2011|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110209053211/http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.com/news/article/are-we-headed-for-four-wave-elections-in-a-row|archive-date=9 February 2011}}</ref> However, political scientist Dan Hopkins has argued that the term has little utility in understanding elections and that there is no clear cut-off point between a wave election and other elections.<ref name=DHopkins>{{cite news|last1=Hopkins|first1=Dan|title=Waves are for Surfing|url=http://themonkeycage.org/2010/09/09/waves_are_for_surfing/|access-date=23 June 2014|publisher=Monkey Cage|date=9 September 2010|archive-date=7 January 2023|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230107174642/https://themonkeycage.org/2010/09/09/waves_are_for_surfing/|url-status=dead}}</ref>

Congressional incumbents in the United States enjoy an electoral advantage over challengers, but a wave election often boosts challengers, resulting in many more incumbents losing than usual during wave elections.<ref name=AAbramowitz/> A wave election can put into play seats that would otherwise be considered safe for the party holding the seat, and help even flawed challengers defeat incumbents.<ref name=AAbramowitz/><ref name=MBai/> Since at least 1954, wave elections have always benefited one party at the expense of the other, but the term has also been used to describe a hypothetical scenario in which numerous incumbents from both parties lose their seats.<ref name=AAbramowitz/><ref name=Washedup/> The first election after redistricting is often a wave election, since many incumbents are less firmly rooted in their districts following redistricting, and many other incumbents retire or suffer primary defeats.<ref name=AAbramowitz/>

A wave election may also be concurrent with a landslide election, a term which usually refers to decisive victories in presidential contests. Many wave elections occur during midterm elections, with the party out of power picking up seats.<ref name=Midterm>{{cite news|last1=Murse|first1=Tim|title=5 Biggest Wave Elections|url=http://uspolitics.about.com/od/CampaignsElections/tp/5-Biggest-Wave-Elections.htm|access-date=20 June 2014|publisher=About.com|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140406030410/http://uspolitics.about.com/od/CampaignsElections/tp/5-Biggest-Wave-Elections.htm|archive-date=6 April 2014}}</ref> A common pattern involves a party with a victorious presidential candidate benefiting from a wave election, followed by the opposing party winning a wave election in the next midterm election.<ref name=MBai>{{cite news|last1=Bai|first1=Matt|title=Democrat in Chief?|url=https://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/13/magazine/13midterms-t.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0|access-date=24 June 2014|work=New York Times|date=8 June 2010}}</ref> Such occurred: * In 1872, with the re-election of President Ulysses S. Grant, followed by the Democratic wave of 1874, with the Democratic Party retaking control of the House. * In 1888, with the election of Benjamin Harrison as President, followed by the Democratic wave of 1890, with the Democratic Party retaking control of the House. * In 1892, with the election of former President Grover Cleveland, followed by the Republican wave of 1894, with the Republican Party retaking control of the House and the Senate.<ref group="Note">This was before the passage of the 17th amendment, so Senators were chosen by State Legislatures.</ref> * In 1916, with the re-election of President Woodrow Wilson, followed by the Republican wave of 1918, with the Republican Party retaking control of the House and the Senate. * In 1944, with the re-election of President Franklin D. Roosevelt, followed by the Republican wave of 1946, with the Republican Party retaking control of the House and the Senate.<ref group="Note">Although Harry S. Truman was president when the elections took place that year.</ref> * In 1952, with the election of Dwight D. Eisenhower as President, followed by the Democratic wave of 1954, with the Democratic Party retaking control of the House and the Senate. * In 1984, with the re-election of President Ronald Reagan, followed by Democratic wave of 1986, with the Democratic Party retaking control of the Senate. * In 1992, with the election of Bill Clinton as President, followed by the Republican wave of 1994, with the Republican Party retaking control of the House and the Senate. * In 2004, with the re-election of President George W. Bush, followed by the Democratic wave of 2006, with the Democratic Party retaking control of the House and the Senate. * In 2008, with the election of Barack Obama as President, followed by the Republican wave of 2010, with the Republican Party retaking control of the House. * In 2012, with the re-election of President Obama, followed by another Republican wave of 2014, with the Republican Party retaking control of the Senate. * In 2016, with the election of Donald Trump as President, followed by the Democratic wave of 2018, with the Democratic Party retaking control of the House.

==Examples in The House==

<gallery widths="180" heights="120"> File:1874 House Election Results.svg|1874, Democrats won 92 seats File:1890 US house election map.svg|1890, Democrats won 86 seats File:1894 US House of Representatives election results.svg|1894, Republicans won 110 seats File:1918 United States House Map.png|1918, Republicans won 24 seats File:1946 United States House elections.svg|1946, Republicans won 55 seats File:1954 United States House of Representatives elections map.svg|1954, Democrats won 19 seats File:1994 United States House of Representatives election by districts won (fixed).svg|1994, Republicans won 54 seats File:2006 House elections.svg|2006, Democrats won 31 seats File:2010 House elections.svg|2010, Republicans won 63 seats File:US House 2018.svg|2018, Democrats won 41 seats </gallery>

== Examples in The Senate == <gallery widths="180" heights="120"> File:1918 United States Senate elections results map.svg|1918, Republicans won 5 seats File:1946 United States Senate elections results map.svg|1946, Republicans won 12 seats File:1986 United States Senate elections results map.svg|1986, Democrats won 8 seats File:1994 United States Senate elections results map.svg|1994, Republicans won 8 seats File:2006 United States Senate elections results map.svg|2006, Democrats won 6 seats<ref group="Note">Though Joe Lieberman (CT) won on the Connecticut for Lieberman ticket, he referred to himself as an independent Democrat and was listed on the Senate website as ID-CT.</ref> File:2014 United States Senate elections results map.svg|2014, Republicans won 9 seats </gallery>

==References== {{reflist}}

== Notes == <references group="Note" />

==External links== *{{cite web|title=Party Division in the Senate, 1789-Present|url=https://www.senate.gov/pagelayout/history/one_item_and_teasers/partydiv.htm|website=US Senate|publisher=United States Senate|access-date=19 January 2015}} *{{cite web|title=Party Divisions of the House of Representatives|url=http://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/|website=History, Art & Archives|publisher=United States House of Representatives|access-date=19 January 2015}}

{{DEFAULTSORT:Wave Election}} Category:Elections in the United States Category:Elections terminology Category:Political science terminology