{{Short description|Military concept of achieving overwhelming advantage}} {{Distinguish|Overmatching|Overwatch (disambiguation){{!}}Overwatch}} {{war}} '''Overmatch''' is a concept in modern military thinking which prizes having overwhelming advantages over an adversary to a more significant margin than in traditional warfare. It is related to military superiority.<ref>{{cite web |last1=Button |first1=Robert W. |title=Thinking Constructively About Overmatch |url=https://www.rand.org/blog/2017/03/thinking-constructively-about-overmatch.html |website=www.rand.org |publisher=RAND |access-date=8 August 2020}}</ref> Overmatch uses a military force's "capabilities or unique tactics" to compel the opposing forces to stop using their own equipment or tactics, as doing so would lead to their own defeat or destruction.<ref name= overmatchCapability >[https://ndupress.ndu.edu/Publications/Article/1411615/multidomain-battle-time-for-a-campaign-of-joint-experimentation/ Kevin M. Woods and Thomas C. Greenwood (Jan. 9, 2018) ''Joint Force Quarterly'' '''88''' Multidomain Battle: Time for a Campaign of Joint Experimentation] Overmatch provides "capabilities for presenting an adversary with multiple, simultaneous dilemmas across domains".</ref> By fielding the right mix of capabilities, the commander can present multiple dilemmas to the enemy, thus compelling the enemy to withdraw.<ref name= multipleDilemmas >[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cejIOH-yjIE Gen. David G. Perkins (Nov 2, 2015) US Naval War College, Lecture of Opportunity: Gen. David G. Perkins: The Army Operating Concept]</ref>{{rp|57:00}} thumb|500px|right|DARPA AlphaDogfight Trials (ADTs), 20 August 2020
==Definition== According to the US Army, the definition of overmatch is "the concept where my (insert lethality system here) can willfully and without prejudice or luck defeat your (insert your protective system here)."<ref>{{cite web |last1=Horning |first1=Matthew A. |title=INFORMATION OVERMATCH: HOW INFORMATION DOMINANCE WILL WIN OUR NATION'S WARS |url=https://asc.army.mil/web/news-information-overmatch-how-information-dominance-will-win-our-nations-wars/ |website=asc.army.mil |publisher=US Army |access-date=8 August 2020 |archive-date=9 March 2021 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210309164554/https://asc.army.mil/web/news-information-overmatch-how-information-dominance-will-win-our-nations-wars/ |url-status=dead }}</ref>
According to Raytheon, overmatch is a verb which means "to defeat threats at every level – strategic, tactical and technological."<ref>{{cite web |title=Land Warfare Overmatch Solutions |url=https://www.raytheon.com/capabilities/products/overmatch |website=www.raytheon.com |publisher=Raytheon |access-date=8 August 2020}}</ref>
According to Ben Barry, "overmatch is a very polite, clinical way of saying could be defeated.”<ref>{{cite web |last1=Lye |first1=Harry |title=Russia would defeat British Division in 2025, MPs warned |url=https://www.army-technology.com/features/russia-would-defeat-british-division-in-2025-mps-warned/ |website=www.army-technology.com |date=4 November 2020 |publisher=Army-Technology.com |access-date=7 November 2020}}</ref>
===Example — AI versus human pilots=== AI agents are not subject to the physiological constraints of a human pilot, such as the danger of flying at low altitude, or the g-forces of the aircraft accelerations. Human pilots noted that the AI agents flew with fine motor control. In the 2020 AlphaDogfight Trials (see image to the right), the AI agents battled for the chance to dogfight an expert human pilot. The winning AI agent consistently defeated an expert human pilot.<ref name= aiHumanDogfight1 >[https://breakingdefense.com/2020/08/ai-slays-top-f-16-pilot-in-darpa-dogfight-simulation/ Theresa Hitchens (20 August 2020) AI Slays Top F-16 Pilot In DARPA Dogfight Simulation] The AI systems are eventually to serve as wingmen for human commanders. *[https://www.forbes.com/sites/erictegler/2020/08/20/ai-just-won-a-series-of-simulated-dogfights-against-a-human-f-16-pilot-5-to-nothing-what-does-that-mean/#48bf380b235d Eric Tegler (20 August 2020) AI Just Won A Series Of Simulated Dogfights Against A Human F-16 Pilot, 5-0. What Does That Mean?] *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NzdhIA2S35w DARPAtv (20 August 2020) AlphaDogfight Trials Final Event] 5 hour live stream.</ref> The technology will be installed in actual aircraft by 2024.<ref name= "aiToFlyAircraft, assistPilots" >[https://breakingdefense.com/2020/09/ai-will-dogfight-human-pilots-in-tests-by-2024-secdef/ SYDNEY J. FREEDBERG JR. (09 September 2020) AI To Fly In Dogfight Tests By 2024: SecDef] For "human-machine teaming". *[https://www.darpa.mil/program/air-combat-evolution ''Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency—Our Research'' Col. Daniel Javorsek, USAF: Air Combat Evolution (ACE) ] "This shifts the human role from single platform operator to mission commander".</ref><ref name= aiEthicsPrinciples >[https://breakingdefense.com/2020/02/dod-adopts-ai-ethics-principles-but-how-will-they-be-enforced/ Sydney J. Freedberg, Jr. (24 February 2020) DoD Adopts AI Ethics Principles — But How Will They Be Enforced?]</ref><ref name= airDominance >[https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/36509/the-air-forces-secret-next-gen-air-dominance-demonstrator-isnt-what-you-think-it-is Tyler Rogoway (21 Sep 2020) The Air Force's Secret Next Gen Air Dominance Demonstrator Isn't What You Think It Is]</ref>
{{anchor|jaicPartnershipForDefense}}Note: DoD's Joint AI Center (JAIC) has convened 100 online participants from 13 countries to discuss how to use AI in a way that is consonant with their national ethical principles, termed the 'AI Partnership for Defense' in 2020.<!--ref name=g357 /--><ref name=gOrJ9>[https://www.ausa.org/publications/expanding-multi-domain-operations-win-moral-competition Col. Christopher Holshek, USA Ret. (19 August 2020) Expanding Multi-Domain Operations to Win Moral Competition] A recommendation —"integrate military-civilian physical and informational power"</ref><ref name=aiEthicsPrinciples/><ref name= aiEthics13 >[https://breakingdefense.com/2020/09/13-nations-meet-on-ethics-for-military-ai/ Sydney J. Freedberg, Jr. (16 Sep 2020) Military AI Coalition Of 13 Countries Meets On Ethics]</ref>
One possible application is to elevate the role of human pilots to mission commanders, leaving AIs as wingmen to perform as high-skill operators of low-cost robotic craft.<ref name= airDominance /><ref name= aiHumanDogfight1 /><ref name= loyalWingman >Jordi Bou [https://www.graphicnews.com/en/pages/41103/military-boeing-loyal-wingman-drone (5 Mar 2021) Boeing's ‘“Loyal Wingman” makes maiden flight]</ref>
==History== From 2017, after the Annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation, and the dismissal of the need for counter-insurgency for a second time, the US Army emphasized overmatch in their modernization effort.<ref name= judson2017 >{{cite web |last1=Judson |first1=Jen |title=Modernization reborn: Army pushes for total overmatch |url=https://www.defensenews.com/digital-show-dailies/ausa/2017/10/11/modernization-reborn-army-pushes-for-total-overmatch/ |website=www.defensenews.com |date=11 October 2017 |publisher=Defense News |access-date=8 August 2020}}</ref>
In 2017 a task force was formed to modernize the Army. Its recommendation was to form the Army Futures Command, to engage in systematic development of capabilities to overmatch its adversaries.<ref name= overmatch2018 >[https://twitter.com/USArmy/status/1012863317088653318 When activated, the #USArmy Futures Command will have the overarching objective to achieve clear overmatch in future conflicts, making Soldiers and units more lethal to win the nation's wars, then return home safely.]</ref>
In 2021 the 40th Chief of Staff of the Army identified<ref name= suits2021 >[https://www.army.mil/article/246074/army_senior_leaders_seek_sustained_consistent_funding_in_new_budget Devon Suits (6 May 2021) Army senior leaders seek sustained, consistent funding in new budget]</ref>{{blockquote|"Overmatch will belong to the side that can make decisions faster. To meet emerging challenges, the Army is transforming to provide the joint force with speed, range, and convergence of cutting edge technologies that will generate the decision dominance and overmatch required to win the next fight.”}}
==Analysis== Overmatch has been criticized as unsustainable in the long term<ref>{{cite web |last1=Montgomery |first1=Evan |title=UNPACKING OVERMATCH: THREE CRUCIAL QUESTIONS ABOUT U.S. MILITARY SUPERIORITY |url=https://warontherocks.com/2018/07/unpacking-overmatch-three-crucial-questions-about-u-s-military-superiority/ |website=warontherocks.com |date=6 July 2018 |publisher=War on the Rocks |access-date=8 August 2020}}</ref> and requiring immense investments in the military and cutting-edge technologies.<ref>{{cite magazine |last1=T. Klare |first1=Michael |title=Why 'Overmatch' Is Overkill |url=https://www.thenation.com/article/archive/overmatch-pentagon-military-budget-strategy/ |website=www.thenation.com |date=20 December 2018 |publisher=The Nation |access-date=8 August 2020}}</ref>
==See also== * Air supremacy * Cauldron * Full-spectrum dominance * OODA loop
==References== {{Reflist}}
Category:Military theory