Potential superpower

{{Short description|Entity speculated to be or become a superpower}} {{Use Oxford spelling|date=May 2020}} [[File:Superpower.svg|thumb|300px| '''Extant superpowers''' {{legend|#ffff00|United States}} {{legend|#ff0000|China}}'''Potential superpowers'''—supported in varying degrees by academics{{legend|#000080|European Union}} {{legend|#ff6600|Russia}} {{legend|#00ff00|India}} ]]

A '''potential superpower''' is a sovereign state or other polity that is speculated to be or have the potential to become a superpower (a sovereign state or supranational union that holds a dominant position and can exert influence and project power on a global scale through economic, military, technological, political, or cultural means).<ref name="Munro1">{{cite web |last1=Munro |first1=André |title=superpower |url=https://www.britannica.com/topic/superpower |access-date=2 May 2023 |website=Encyclopedia Britannica}}</ref><ref name="Mark1">{{cite news |last=Leonard |first=Mark |date=18 February 2005 |title=Europe: the new superpower |work=Irish Times |url=http://www.cer.org.uk/articles/leonard_irish_times_18feb05.html |access-date=31 May 2015 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090327034443/http://www.cer.org.uk/articles/leonard_irish_times_18feb05.html |archive-date=27 March 2009}}</ref><ref>{{cite book |last=McCormick |first=John |title=The European Superpower |date=2007 |publisher=Palgrave Macmillan |author-link=John McCormick (Jean Monnet Chair)}}</ref>

The United States is currently the only country whose status as a superpower finds broad consensus,<ref>{{Cite web |last=Lee |first=Yen Nee |date=2020-09-17 |title=The U.S. is still a dominant power — but it's not clear if it remains the global leader |url=https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/17/us-is-still-a-dominant-power-but-it-may-not-be-the-global-leader.html |access-date=2024-07-15 |website=CNBC |language=en}}</ref><ref name="k270">{{cite book | last=Beckley | first=Michael | title=Unrivaled: why America will remain the world's sole superpower | publisher=Cornell University Press | publication-place=Ithaca | date=2018 | isbn=978-1-5017-2479-4 | page=}}</ref> with some accounts explicitly calling it the only one.<ref>{{Cite magazine |last=Bremmer |first=Ian |date=2015-05-28 |title=5 Reasons Why the US Remains the World's Only Superpower |url=https://time.com/3899972/us-superpower-status-military/ |access-date=2024-07-15 |magazine=TIME |language=en}}</ref><ref>{{Cite book |url=https://books.google.com/books?id=nTKBdY5HBeUC&q=Canada%2520Among%2520Nations%252C%25202004%253A%2520Setting%2520Priorities+Straight |title=Canada Among Nations, 2004: Setting Priorities Straight |date=17 January 2005 |publisher=McGill-Queen's Press – MQUP |isbn=978-0-7735-2836-9 |page=85 |quote=The United States is the sole world's superpower. |access-date=15 July 2024 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230116145100/https://books.google.com/books?id=nTKBdY5HBeUC&q=Canada%2520Among%2520Nations%252C%25202004%253A%2520Setting%2520Priorities+Straight |archive-date=16 January 2023 |url-status=live}}</ref><ref>{{Cite news |last=Dannatt |first=Richard |date=2024-04-14 |title=America has just reminded us there is only one world superpower |url=https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/04/14/america-has-just-reminded-us-who-is-the-worlds-superpower/ |access-date=2024-07-15 |work=The Telegraph |language=en-GB |issn=0307-1235}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |last=Herman |first=Arthur |date=2026-01-14 |title=America Is the Sole Superpower Again |url=https://www.wsj.com/opinion/america-is-the-sole-superpower-again-0a89e41a |access-date=2026-05-25 |website=The Wall Street Journal |language=en-US}}</ref> Since the mid-2020s, China has increasingly been referred to as a superpower in its own right. The European Union, Russia and India have been discussed as potential superpowers of the 21st century; Japan was a candidate in the 1980s. In spite of the perceived decline of the United States, it remains a superpower primarily due to its alliances, military capacity, soft power, and economic influence and heft.<ref>{{Cite journal|url=https://apcz.umk.pl/HiP/article/view/66714|title=Illusion of Multipolarity: Why the U.S. Remains the Global Superpower|first=Andrzej|last=Demczuk|date=November 18, 2025|journal=Historia i Polityka|issue=54 (61)|pages=35–53|via=apcz.umk.pl|doi=10.12775/HiP.2025.029|doi-access=free}}</ref>

== China == {{Further|Chinese Century|China's peaceful rise|}}

China's status as a superpower has been subject of great academic and geopolitical debate but has increasingly solidified around the idea that it is an established superpower in recent years,<ref name="x582">{{cite journal | last1=Baumann | first1=Max‐Otto | last2=Haug | first2=Sebastian | last3=Weinlich | first3=Silke | title=From developing country to superpower? China, power shifts and the United Nations development pillar | journal=Global Policy | volume=15 | issue=S2 | date=2024 | issn=1758-5880 | doi=10.1111/1758-5899.13260 | pages=51–61 | url=https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1758-5899.13260 | access-date=2026-02-13| doi-access=free }}</ref> with China often seen as the only entity that rivals the United States in the 21st century.<ref name="x582"/> While a 2012 Lund Critical Debate at Cornell University concluded that "China is not yet a superpower",<ref name="r983">{{cite web | last=Diec | first=Jacques | title=Scholars agree: China is not a superpower | website=Cornell Chronicle | date=2012-11-19 | url=https://news.cornell.edu/stories/2012/11/scholars-agree-china-not-superpower | access-date=2026-02-13}} ([https://www.cornell.edu/video/lund-critical-debate-is-china-the-new-superpower video])</ref> an increasing number of proponents have highlighted China's modern military, regional influence, cultural export, rapid advancements in artificial intelligence, and total economic and manufacturing volume as signs of global dominance in the 2020s. By the middle of the decade, prominent international figures such as US Secretary of State Marco Rubio have referred to China as a superpower.<ref>{{cite web | last=Cordesman | first=Anthony H. | title=China's Emergence as a Superpower | website=CSIS | date=2023-08-15 | url=https://www.csis.org/analysis/chinas-emergence-superpower | access-date=2026-02-13}} *{{cite web | last=Ross | first=Dennis | title=Here's Why the U.S. Is No Longer the World's Only Superpower | website=The Washington Institute | date=2025-03-04 | url=https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/heres-why-us-no-longer-worlds-only-superpower | access-date=2026-02-13}} *{{cite web | last=Ross | first=Dennis | title=The U.S. is No Longer the World's Only Superpower | website=TIME | date=2025-03-04 | url=https://time.com/7263996/the-u-s-no-longer-the-worlds-only-superpower/ | access-date=2026-02-13}} *{{cite web | last=Welsh | first=Jennifer | title=Opinion: The U.S. is no longer a superpower | website=The Globe and Mail | date=2025-04-15 | url=https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-the-us-is-no-longer-a-superpower/ | access-date=2026-02-13}} *{{cite web | title=The U.S. is no longer a superpower | website=Max Bell School of Public Policy | date=2025-04-16 | url=https://www.mcgill.ca/maxbellschool/max-policy/us-no-longer-superpower | ref={{sfnref|Max Bell School of Public Policy|2025}} | access-date=2026-02-13}} *Tandon, Shaun; AFP. "Marco Rubio, Secretary of State nominee, to argue that China 'cheated' and 'hacked' its way to 'global superpower status' at hearing". ''Fortune''. Retrieved 2026-05-06.</ref> However, opponents suggest that China's domestic challenges still persist: an ageing and shrinking population, lack of skilled immigration, and international concerns about its soft power status, human rights issues, lack of hard power capabilities through a global military alliance system, and the dominance of the U.S. dollar in global trade.<ref> * {{cite web |last=Herman |first=Arthur |date=2026-01-14 |title=America Is the Sole Superpower Again |url=https://www.wsj.com/opinion/america-is-the-sole-superpower-again-0a89e41a |access-date=2026-02-13 |website=The Wall Street Journal}} * {{cite web |last=Bekkevold |first=Jo Inge |date=2023-03-02 |title=Why China Is Not a Superpower |url=https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/03/02/china-superpower-us-new-cold-war-rivalry-geopolitics/ |website=Foreign Policy}} * {{cite web |date=2025-04-01 |title=Empire Of Illusion: Frank Dikötter On Why China Isn't A Superpower |url=https://www.hoover.org/research/empire-illusion-frank-dikotter-why-china-isnt-superpower |website=Hoover Institution}} * {{cite |author=Andrew Latham |title=China: A great power but not a superpower |date=2023-04-06 |url=https://thehill.com/opinion/international/3936751-china-a-great-power-but-not-a-superpower/ |language=en-US}} * {{cite web |date=2023-09-07 |title=Opinion: The 'rising superpower' myth about China |url=https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/07/opinions/rising-superpower-myth-china-rayburn-bergen |website=CNN}}</ref>

There has been great focus on China's growing economic activity on the global stage, in particular where it has been in competition with the United States: for example, the establishment and large-scale expansion in countries joining the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank in contrast to traditional western institutions, along with the Belt and Road Initiative and China's role in the worldwide groundings of the Boeing 737 MAX.<ref name="Foreign Policy-April-1-2015">{{cite magazine|author=Allen-Ebrahimian, Bethany |title=Obama Is Sitting Alone at a Bar Drinking a Consolation Beer|url=https://foreignpolicy.com/2015/04/01/obama-china-bank-aiib-policy/|magazine=Foreign Policy|date=April 1, 2015}}</ref><ref name="Boeing’s Crisis Strengthens Beijing’s Hand-March-20-2019">{{cite magazine|author=Aboulafia, Richard |title=Boeing's Crisis Strengthens Beijing's Hand|url=https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/03/20/boeings-crisis-strengthens-beijings-hand-737max-faa-caac-aviation-regulators-trade-war-china-xi-trump/|magazine=Foreign Policy|date=March 20, 2019}}</ref> It has also been argued that there is likely to be growing competition in future between two highly dominant countries, the United States and China, while others begin to lag behind economically.<ref name="Columbia University Press-February-2018">{{Cite book|author=Tunsjø, Øystein |title=The Return of Bipolarity in World Politics: China, the United States, and Geostructural Realism|url=https://cup.columbia.edu/book/the-return-of-bipolarity-in-world-politics/9780231176545|publisher=Columbia University Press|date=February 27, 2018|isbn=9780231546904}}</ref> It has also been predicted that China may overtake the United States as the world's largest economy in the 2020s.<ref>{{cite web|author=Thair Shaikh |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120311061413/http://articles.cnn.com/2011-06-10/world/china.military.superpower_1_superpower-military-spending-military-dominance/2?_s=PM%3AWORLD |url=http://articles.cnn.com/2011-06-10/world/china.military.superpower_1_superpower-military-spending-military-dominance/2?_s=PM:WORLD |title=When Will China Become a Global Superpower? |publisher=CNN |date=10 June 2011 |archive-date=11 March 2012 |access-date=28 June 2014 |url-status=dead }}</ref> Due to the country's rapidly developing AI industry, China has also been referred to as an "AI superpower".<ref>{{Cite book |last=Lee |first=Kai-Fu |title=AI Superpowers: China, Silicon Valley, and the New World Order |publisher=Houghton Mifflin Harcourt |date=September 25, 2018 |language=English}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |last=Westerheide |first=Fabian |title=China – The First Artificial Intelligence Superpower |url=https://www.forbes.com/sites/cognitiveworld/2020/01/14/china-artificial-intelligence-superpower/ |access-date=2024-07-19 |website=Forbes |language=en}}</ref><ref>{{Cite news |last1=Milmo |first1=Dan |work=Global technology |date=2021-12-08 |title=TechScape: how China became an AI superpower ready to take on the United States |url=https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2021/dec/08/techscape-china-ai-united-states |access-date=2024-07-19 |publisher=The Guardian |language=en-GB |issn=0261-3077}}</ref>

But some have questioned how long this pace of economic growth could continue, with emphasis placed not only on China's very large but ageing and shrinking population of over 1.4 billion, but also long-term effects of pollution within the country that have accumulated during its fast pace of industrialisation.<ref name="articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com">{{cite news |last=Beardson |first=Timothy |date=June 28, 2013 |title=I don't see China becoming a superpower in this century |url=http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2013-06-28/news/40234296_1_challenges-facing-china-foreign-companies-china-20-years |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160305034514/http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2013-06-28/news/40234296_1_challenges-facing-china-foreign-companies-china-20-years |archive-date=March 5, 2016 |work=The Times Of India}}</ref><ref>{{cite news |author=Timothy Beardson |date=24 May 2013 |title=Action Needed on the Environment |url=https://www.huffingtonpost.com/timothy-beardson/china-pollution_b_3331929.html |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210226075322/https://www.huffpost.com/entry/china-pollution_b_3331929 |archive-date=February 26, 2021 |access-date=26 July 2014 |work=Huffington Post}}</ref><ref>{{cite book |author=Susan Shirk |url=https://archive.org/details/chinafragilesupe00shir |title=China: Fragile Superpower |date=2008 |publisher=Oxford University Press |isbn=978-0-19-537319-6 |url-access=registration}}</ref> The damage to the country's environment has been extremely costly, mostly due to an inability of poor regions to afford environmental regulations,<ref>{{Cite book |last=Economy |first=Elizabeth C. |title=The River Runs Black: The Environmental Challenge to China's Future |date=2010 |publisher=Cornell University Press |isbn=978-0-8014-7613-6 |edition= |series=A Council on Foreign Relations Book |location=Ithaca}}</ref> but also a broader freshwater crisis stemming from inefficient management, pollution, and climate change.<ref>{{Cite web |last=Leung |first=Ka Ching |date=February 21, 2023 |title=Tackling China's Water Shortage Crisis |url=https://earth.org/tackling-chinas-water-shortage-crisis/ |access-date=2025-07-31 |website=Earth.Org |language=en}}</ref> China also has yet to prove attractive to skilled immigration from outside the country in the same way other countries like the United States have.<ref name="Chua, A 2007">{{cite book|author=Amy Chua|year=2007|title=Day of Empire: How Hyperpowers Rise to Global Dominance – and Why They Fall|publisher=Random House|isbn=978-0-385-51284-8|url=https://archive.org/details/dayofempirehowhy00chua_0}}</ref> A supposed lack of soft power is another aspect of contention to China's status as a potential superpower.<ref>{{Cite web |last=Swain |first=Ashok |date=2021-01-21 |title=China's economy and military can overtake US, but it still won't become global superpower |url=https://theprint.in/opinion/chinas-can-overtake-us-but-it-still-wont-become-global-superpower/588718/ |access-date=2024-07-12 |website=ThePrint |language=en-US}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |title=Today's China will never be a superpower |url=https://www.ft.com/content/233b101e-7d51-11e9-81d2-f785092ab560 |access-date=2024-07-12 |website=www.ft.com|date=27 May 2019 }}</ref>

The United States military considers China as the US' most capable and formidable adversary.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.army.mil/article/285395/how_china_fights_in_large_scale_combat_operations |title=How China Fights in Large-Scale Combat Operations |website=U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC) |date=8 May 2025 |first=Ian |last=Sullivan }}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.voanews.com/a/europe_us-labels-china-greatest-potential-adversary/6184312.html |title=US Labels China 'Greatest Potential Adversary' |website=Voice of America |first=Henry |last=Ridgwell |date=15 February 2020 }}</ref> There has been argument that its ties with Russia and Central Asia could see the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation become the "NATO of the East".<ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/27/magazine/27world-t.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0|newspaper=The New York Times|last=Khanna|first=Parag|title=Waving Goodbye to Hegemony|date=27 January 2008 |access-date=July 19, 2014}}</ref> It has also been argued that American absence from the Indo-Pacific region during the war on terror has allowed the Chinese to actively challenge the United States as the pre-eminent power in the region.<ref>{{cite report|author=Ashley Townshend, Brendan Thomas-Noone, Matilda Steward|url=https://www.ussc.edu.au/analysis/averting-crisis-american-strategy-military-spending-and-collective-defence-in-the-indo-pacific|work=United States Studies Centre|title=Averting Crisis: American strategy, military spending and collective defence in the Indo-Pacific|date= 19 August 2019}}</ref> But others have argued that China is still surrounded by potentially hostile nations, and lacks the friends or allies necessary for it to truly compete with the United States.<ref>{{cite magazine|author=Minxin Pei|url=https://foreignpolicy.com/2012/03/20/the-loneliest-superpower/|title=The Loneliest Superpower|magazine=Foreign Policy|date=20 March 2012|access-date=28 June 2014 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210505071234/https://foreignpolicy.com/2012/03/20/the-loneliest-superpower/ |archive-date=May 5, 2021 |url-status=live}}</ref>

== European Union == {{See also|Eurosphere|Paneuropean Union}}

The European Union (EU) has been called a potential superpower, mainly due to its economic power and global political influence. Factors highlighted include its large population, the size and global reach of its combined economy, and the comparative unpopularity of US foreign policy.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.cer.org.uk/in-the-press/europe-new-superpower|title=Europe: the new superpower|publisher=CER|date=18 February 2005|access-date=28 May 2014}}</ref><ref name="The European Superpower">{{cite book|author=John McCormick|title=The European Superpower|isbn=978-1-4039-9846-0|date=14 November 2006|publisher=Macmillan Education UK }}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |last=Calvino |first=Nadia |date=2026-03-01 |title=Europe is stronger than the world thinks |url=https://www.japantimes.co.jp/commentary/2026/03/01/world/europe-as-a-superpower/ |access-date=2026-06-01 |website=The Japan Times |language=en}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal |last=Moravcsik |first=Andrew |date=September 2009 |title=Europe: The quiet superpower |url=https://doi.org/10.1057/fp.2009.29 |journal=French Politics |volume=7 |issue=3-4 |pages=403–422 |doi=10.1057/fp.2009.29 |issn=1476-3419}}</ref><ref>{{Cite book |last=McCormick |first=John |title=The European superpower |date=2007 |publisher=Palgrave Macmillan |isbn=978-1-4039-9845-3 |location=Basingstoke, Hampshire ; New York, N.Y}}</ref>

Despite lacking a cohesive military of its own, with military capabilities still in the hands of individual member states, it has been argued that this is irrelevant when considering the status of the EU as a potential superpower.<ref>{{cite book|url=https://archive.org/details/europeinnewcentu00robe|url-access=registration|quote=Europe emerging superpower.|title=Europe in the New Century: Visions of an Emerging Superpower|publisher=Lynne Rienner Publishers|year=2001|isbn=9781555878528|access-date=10 February 2012}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|author=Trevor Williams|url=http://www.globalatlanta.com/danish-envoy-economic-strength-makes-eu-a-rising-superpower/|title=Danish Envoy: Economic Strength Makes EU a 'Rising Superpower'|work=Globalatlanta|date=29 October 2008|access-date=19 July 2014}}</ref> Others disagree, saying that its lack of a unified military structure compared to the United States undermines its claim to be a potential superpower.<ref>{{cite web|author=Robert Lane Greene|url=https://www.globalpolicy.org/component/content/article/173-sovereign/30500.html|title=EU Constitution: A 'Superpower Europe' It Won't Be|publisher=Globalpolicy.org|date=18 July 2003|access-date=10 February 2012}}</ref><ref>Colin S. Gray, "Document No. 1: The Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR), 2006, and the Perils of the Twenty-First Century," ''Comparative Strategy'', 25/2, (2006): p 143.</ref><ref>{{Cite web |last=Legrain |first=Philippe |title=Why the EU isn’t a superpower yet |url=https://www.brusselstimes.com/1834257/why-the-eu-isnt-a-superpower-yet |access-date=2026-06-01 |publisher=The Brussels Times |language=en}}</ref>

There have also been conflicting views about the EU's lack of political integration. Some have argued that its "lower profile" diplomacy and emphasis on the rule of law represent a new kind of geopolitical influence that fulfills the political requirements for consideration as a superpower, rather than simply failing to meet them.<ref name="The European Superpower" /><ref>{{cite web|author=Adrian Hyde-Price|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090326212441/http://www.arena.uio.no/cidel/WorkshopOsloSecurity/Hyde-Price.pdf|archive-date=26 March 2009|date=23 October 2004|url=http://www.arena.uio.no/cidel/WorkshopOsloSecurity/Hyde-Price.pdf|title=The EU, Power and Coercion: From 'Civilian' to 'Civilising' Power|publisher=ARENA Centre for European Studies}}</ref> Others however argue that its lack of a centralised foreign or defence policy leaves its effectiveness uncertain when compared to that of a more politically integrated union of states such as the United States,<ref>{{cite magazine|url=https://www.nybooks.com/articles/2005/02/10/europe-vs-america/|title=Europe vs. America by Tony Judt|magazine=The New York Review of Books|date=10 February 2005|access-date=10 February 2012}}</ref><ref name="The United States and the Great Powers">{{cite book |last=Buzan |first=Barry |title=The United States and the Great Powers |publisher=Polity Press |year=2004 |isbn=0-7456-3375-7 |location=Cambridge, United Kingdom |page=70}}</ref> and it has even been argued that the EU is little more than an extension of a Europe reliant on or dominated by the United States.<ref>Zbigniew Brzezinski, ''Strategic Vision: America and the Crisis of Global Power'', (New York: Basic Books, 2012), p 22, 126.</ref>

The European Union has been called a "regulatory superpower" due to the Brussels effect, which suggests that regulations and standards applicable in the EU will also be adopted by numerous countries outside the EU over time.<ref>{{Cite web |last=dmalloy |date=2023-06-15 |title=The world's regulatory superpower is taking on a regulatory nightmare: artificial intelligence |url=https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/the-worlds-regulatory-superpower-is-taking-on-a-regulatory-nightmare-artificial-intelligence/ |access-date=2023-09-15 |website=Atlantic Council |language=en-US}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |last=kdaponte |date=2023-05-24 |title=Meta fine shows EU is 'regulatory superpower,' Northeastern expert says |url=https://cssh.northeastern.edu/meta-fine-shows-eu-is-regulatory-superpower-northeastern-expert-says/ |access-date=2023-09-15 |website=College of Social Sciences and Humanities |language=en-us}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal |last=Bradford |first=Anu |date=2020-03-01 |title=The Brussels Effect: How the European Union Rules the World |url=https://scholarship.law.columbia.edu/books/232 |journal=Faculty Books|doi=10.1093/oso/9780190088583.001.0001 |isbn=978-0-19-008858-3 |url-access=subscription }}</ref>

== Russia == {{Further|Russia as an energy superpower|History of the Russian Federation}}

Russia, since its imperial times, has been considered both a great power and a regional power. Throughout most of the Soviet-era, the Soviet Union was one of the world's two superpowers. However, after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the Russian Federation as its successor state lost its superpower status.<ref>{{Cite journal |last=Minkina |first=Mirosław |date=2019-09-30 |title=Russia's return to the superpower status |url=https://securityanddefence.pl/Russia-s-return-to-the-superpower-status,110335,0,2.html |journal=Security and Defence Quarterly |volume=26 |issue=4 |pages=34–50 |doi=10.35467/sdq/110335 |issn=2300-8741|hdl=11331/2402 |hdl-access=free }}</ref> In his 2005 publication entitled ''Russia in the 21st Century: The Prodigal Superpower'', Steven Rosefielde, a professor of economics at University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, predicted that Russia would emerge as a superpower before 2010 and augur another arms race. However, Rosefielde noted that such an end would come with tremendous sacrifice to global security and the Russian people's freedom.<ref>{{cite book|author=Steven Rosefielde|author-link=Steven Rosefielde|url=http://www.cambridge.org/gb/academic/subjects/economics/international-economics/russia-21st-century-prodigal-superpower|title=Russia in the 21st Century|publisher=UNC Press|date=February 2005|isbn=978-0-521-54529-7}}</ref>{{Page needed|date=December 2023}}

Others however have put forward more pessimistic views towards Russia's ability to regain its superpower status. A mixed opinion has been offered by Matthew Fleischer of the ''Los Angeles Times'', contending that severe climate change would be necessary for much of Russia's inherent natural resources to become viable.<ref>{{cite news|author=Matthew Fleischer|url=https://www.latimes.com/opinion/opinion-la/la-ol-climate-change-russia-super-power-20140311-story.html|title=How curbing climate change can prevent Russia from becoming a superpower|newspaper=Los Angeles Times|date=12 March 2014|access-date=7 July 2014}}</ref>

Several analysts commented on the fact that Russia showed signs of an aging and shrinking population. Fred Weir said that this severely constricts and limits Russia's potential to re-emerge as a central world power.<ref>{{cite news|author=Fred Weir|url=http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/europe/russia/111102/russia-population-superpower-health-soviet-union|title=Despite huge cash bonuses to mothers, Russia's population is shrinking|work=GlobalPost|date=3 November 2011|access-date=8 July 2014}}</ref> In 2011, British historian and professor Niall Ferguson also highlighted the negative effects of Russia's declining population, and suggested that Russia is on its way to "global irrelevance".<ref>{{cite magazine|author=Niall Ferguson|url=https://www.newsweek.com/decline-putins-russia-its-way-global-irrelevance-65847|title=In Decline, Putin's Russia Is On Its Way to Global Irrelevance|magazine=Newsweek|date=12 December 2011|access-date=2 August 2014}}</ref> Russia has, however, shown a slight population growth since the late 2000s, partly due to immigration, quickly rising birth rates, slowly declining death rates.<ref>{{cite magazine|author=Mark Adomanis|url=https://www.forbes.com/sites/markadomanis/2013/05/11/russias-population-isnt-shrinking-its-growing-very-very-slowly/|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130609004205/http://www.forbes.com/sites/markadomanis/2013/05/11/russias-population-isnt-shrinking-its-growing-very-very-slowly/|url-status=dead|archive-date=June 9, 2013|title=Russia's Population Isn't Shrinking (It's Growing Very, Very Slowly)|magazine=Forbes|date=11 May 2013|access-date=8 July 2014}}</ref>

In the 2020s, many scholars view Russia's global influence as being in decline.<ref>{{cite book |last1=Taylor |first1=Brian D. |title=Russian Politics: A Very Short Introduction |publisher=Oxford University Press |year=2024 |isbn=978-0-19-751602-7 |pages=21–40 |chapter=Power, status, and greatness |doi=10.1093/actrade/9780197516027.003.0002 |quote=Although the lines sometimes can be blurry, there are only three countries in the world that international relations experts typically classify as having been a great power for the past 300 years: Britain, France, and Russia... Russia's geographic size, nuclear weapons, and permanent UN Security Council seat guarantee its continuing great power status... Yet the greater economic power of the United States, the European Union, and China, as well as rising countries... meant that Russia's future standing in the world remained in doubt even before the Russo-Ukraine War.}}</ref><ref name="f495">{{cite journal |last=Šćepanović |first=Janko |date=22 March 2023 |title=Still a great power? Russia's status dilemmas post-Ukraine war |journal=Journal of Contemporary European Studies |publisher=Informa UK Limited |volume=32 |issue=1 |pages=80–95 |doi=10.1080/14782804.2023.2193878 |issn=1478-2804 |quote=Drezner, as well as others like Dan Depetris, agrees that, on principle, Russia can still be counted among the great powers... At the same time, scholars rightly wonder what rank within the great power club Russia belongs to...}}</ref> Russia's ability to project hard power was also questioned following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, with the Russian military's poor performance prompting economist Paul Krugman to suggest Russia was little more than a "Potemkin Superpower".<ref>{{cite journal|author=Paul Krugman|url=https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/28/opinion/putin-military-sanctions-weakness.html|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220301041314/https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/28/opinion/putin-military-sanctions-weakness.html|url-status=live|archive-date=1 March 2022|title=Russia Is a Potemkin Superpower|journal=New York Times|date=28 February 2022|access-date=1 March 2022}}</ref>

== India == {{Further|Indian Century | Indianisation | Greater India | Indosphere | Indomania }}

India has seen considerable coverage of its potential of becoming a superpower. Multiple opinions have pointed towards India's rapid economic development as a reason for it to be considered a potential superpower, in particular during the 2010s when it was predicted to outpace China's growth into the future.{{efn|Attributed to multiple sources: <ref>{{cite news |date=2011-01-09|title=India 2025: What kind of superpower? |first=Michael |last=Dingman |work=The Economic Times |publisher=Bennett, Coleman & Co. Ltd. |url=https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/opinion/et-commentary/india-2025-what-kind-of-superpower/articleshow/7238752.cms|access-date=2012-02-10}}</ref><ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.rediff.com/money/2006/mar/29minter.htm |title=India will be the biggest superpower |work=Rediff |year=2006 |access-date=19 July 2014}}</ref><ref name="IBM India Century">{{cite journal |last=Subramanian |first=Samanth |title=The Outlier:The inscrutable politics of Subramanian Swamy |url=https://www.caravanmagazine.in/reportage/outlier |journal=The Caravan: A Journal of Politics & Culture |date=1 May 2012 |access-date=29 March 2018}}</ref><ref name="rising">{{cite magazine |last=Zakaria |first=Fareed |date=March 5, 2006 |title=India Rising |url=https://www.newsweek.com/india-rising-106259 |magazine=Newsweek |access-date=August 2, 2014}}</ref>}}

Some commentators made the prediction of India becoming a superpower by 2020, most notably based on A. P. J. Abdul Kalam's book ''India 2020''.<ref>{{Cite web |date=2020-12-10 |title=India and the World: Looking into 2021 |url=https://openaxis.in/2020/12/11/india-and-the-world-looking-into-2021/ |access-date=2025-05-09 |website=OpenAxis |language=en-GB}}</ref><ref>{{Cite news |last=Bhagat |first=Chetan |title=Let this be India’s goal for this decade — $5,000 per capita income by 2030 |url=https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/blogs/The-underage-optimist/let-this-be-indias-goal-for-this-decade-5000-per-capita-income-by-2030/ |access-date=2025-05-09 |work=The Times of India |issn=0971-8257}}</ref> In 2019, BJP politician Amit Shah claimed that India would emerge as a superpower in the next 5 years under the rule of Narendra Modi.<ref>{{Cite web |publisher=Business Standard |title=India will become 'superpower' if Modi becomes PM again: Shah |url=https://www.business-standard.com/article/pti-stories/india-will-become-superpower-if-modi-becomes-pm-again-shah-119050500673_1.html |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20241011084804/https://www.business-standard.com/article/pti-stories/india-will-become-superpower-if-modi-becomes-pm-again-shah-119050500673_1.html |archive-date=2024-10-11 |access-date=2025-05-09 |website=www.business-standard.com |language=en-US}}</ref>

Economists and researchers at Harvard University have projected India's 7% projected annual growth rate through 2024 would continue to put it ahead of China, making India the fastest growing economy in the world.<ref>{{cite news |title=New Growth Projections Predict the Rise of India, East Africa and Fall of Oil Economies |url=https://www.hks.harvard.edu/news-events/news/articles/new-growth-projections |website=Harvard Kennedy School |access-date=12 April 2016 |date=7 May 2015 |archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20160508145617/https://www.hks.harvard.edu/news-events/news/articles/new-growth-projections |archivedate=2016-05-08}}</ref><ref>{{cite news |title=India Will Be Fastest-Growing Economy for Coming Decade, Harvard Researchers Predict |work=The Wall Street Journal |first=Raymond |last=Zhong |url=https://blogs.wsj.com/indiarealtime/2016/01/01/india-will-be-fastest-growing-economy-for-coming-decade-harvard-researchers-predict/ |access-date=12 April 2016 |date=1 January 2016}}</ref> Over and above, India also has the advantage of having a very large and growing young population with a median age of 28, compared to China's median age of 40.<ref>{{Cite web |last1=Silver |first1=Laura |last2=Huang |first2=Christine |last3=Clancy |first3=Laura |title=Key facts as India surpasses China as the world's most populous country |url=https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/02/09/key-facts-as-india-surpasses-china-as-the-worlds-most-populous-country/ |access-date=2024-02-23 |website=Pew Research Center |date=9 February 2023 |language=en-US}}</ref> In 2003 Goldman Sachs predicted that India would become an economic superpower by 2050.<ref>{{Cite web |title=Dreaming with BRICs: The Path to 2050 |url=https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/goldman-sachs-research/brics-dream |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250214025506/https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/goldman-sachs-research/brics-dream |archive-date=2025-02-14 |access-date=2025-05-09 |website=www.goldmansachs.com}}</ref> In a 2024 interview with The Independent, former UK PM Tony Blair predicted that by 2050 India would be a 'global superpower' along with the United States and China.<ref>{{Cite web |date=2025-01-01 |title=Can India become the world’s third superpower? |url=https://www.independent.co.uk/asia/india/india-modi-economy-democracy-power-china-usa-b2665016.html |access-date=2025-05-09 |website=The Independent |language=en}}</ref> In 2025 Former UK PM Rishi Sunak suggested India is an 'economic superpower'.<ref>{{Cite web |date=2025-10-18 |title=‘India clearly an economic superpower’: Former UK PM Rishi Sunak on US tariffs, trade, and global power shifts |url=https://www.financialexpress.com/world-news/us-news/india-clearly-an-economic-superpower-former-uk-pm-rishi-sunak-on-us-tariffs-trade-and-global-power-shifts/4014564/ |access-date=2025-10-21 |website=The Financial Express |language=en}}</ref>

While India’s economic growth has continued, some analysts note that inequality remains high and that its trade potential is more limited compared to regional competitors such as China. Although India briefly became the world’s fastest-growing major economy in 2015, its growth rate has fallen below China’s since 2018.{{efn|Attributed to multiple sources: <ref>{{cite news |last=Khanna |first=Parag |authorlink=Parag Khanna |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/27/magazine/27world-t.html |title=Waving Goodbye to Hegemony |newspaper=The New York Times |date=2008-01-27 |access-date=2012-02-10}}</ref><ref>{{cite web |last=Khanna |first=Parag |authorlink=Parag Khanna |url=http://www.newamerica.net/node/8987 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110629133515/http://www.newamerica.net/node/8987 |archive-date=2011-06-29 |title=The Rise of Non-Americanism |publisher=New America Foundation |date=2008-05-18 |access-date=2012-02-10}}</ref><ref name="doi10.1257/jel.47.3.771">{{Cite journal |last=Pritchett |first=Lant |authorlink=Lant Pritchett |title=A Review of Edward Luce's 'In Spite of the Gods: The Strange Rise of Modern India' |doi=10.1257/jel.47.3.771 |journal=Journal of Economic Literature |volume=47 |issue=3 |pages=771–081 |year=2009}}</ref><ref>{{cite news|title=India to beat China again as fastest-growing economy in 2016: IMF |work=The Economic Times |publisher=Bennett, Coleman & Co. Ltd. |url=http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2015-07-09/news/64243978_1_growth-projection-world-economic-outlook-update-fastest-growing-economy |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150717151633/http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2015-07-09/news/64243978_1_growth-projection-world-economic-outlook-update-fastest-growing-economy |url-status=dead |archive-date=July 17, 2015 |access-date=20 November 2015 |date=9 July 2015}}</ref><ref>{{Cite news|date=2019-05-31|title=India loses place as world's fastest-growing economy |language=en-GB |work=BBC News |url=https://www.bbc.com/news/business-48478028 |access-date=2020-10-18}}</ref>}} Since 2021, India's economy has grown faster than China's and<ref>{{Cite web |title=https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDP_RPCH@WEO/IND/CHN |url=https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDP_RPCH@WEO/IND/CHN |access-date=2025-11-01 |website=www.imf.org}}</ref> remains the fastest growing major economy.<ref>{{Cite web |date=2025-07-16 |title=India vs. China: a growth perspective |url=https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/economics-markets/recent-developments/india-vs-china-growth-perspective |access-date=2025-12-14 |website=CaixaBank Research |language=en}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |title=India {{!}} World Bank Group |url=https://www.worldbank.org/ext/en/country/india |access-date=2025-12-14 |website=www.worldbank.org}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |title=Client Challenge |url=https://www.ft.com/content/c99a7605-dc0a-49d0-ade3-e1f4a17e6cad |access-date=2025-12-14 |website=www.ft.com}}</ref><ref>{{Cite news |title=India Remains The Fastest Growing Economy: Morgan Stanley |url=https://www.ndtv.com/business-news/india-remains-the-fastest-growing-economy-morgan-stanley-8806132 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250801022356/https://www.ndtv.com/business-news/india-remains-the-fastest-growing-economy-morgan-stanley-8806132 |archive-date=2025-08-01 |access-date=2025-12-14 |work=www.ndtv.com |language=en |url-status=live }}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |last=Hernandez-Vila |first=Ivan |date=2025-11-13 |title=India Will be World’s Fastest Growing Economy in 2026: Analysts |url=https://www.devere-group.com/india-will-be-worlds-fastest-growing-economy-in-2026-analysts/ |access-date=2025-12-14 |language=en-US}}</ref>

It has also been argued that India's government and bureaucracy is geared against emerging as a superpower, with it being argued that it "does very little collective thinking about its long-term foreign policy goals, since most of the strategic planning that takes place within the government happens on an individual level".<ref name="FA Miller 14">{{cite journal |last=Miller |first=Manjari Chatterjee |date=May–June 2013 |title=India's Feeble Foreign Policy |url=https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/india/2013-04-03/indias-feeble-foreign-policy |journal=Foreign Affairs |volume=92 |issue=3 |pages=14–18 |access-date=27 June 2013 |authorlink=Manjari Miller}}</ref>

== Comparative statistics of current candidates == {{Table alignment}} <div style="overflow:auto"> {| class="wikitable sortable col1left col10left" style="text-align: right" !rowspan=2|Country/Union !rowspan=2|Population<ref>[https://web.archive.org/web/20070613004507/https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2119rank.html Population by country on July 2017 Est.] ''The World Factbook — Central Intelligence Agency'', Retrieved 10 May 2018</ref><ref>[http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/tgm/table.do?tab=table&language=en&pcode=tps00001&tableSelection=1&footnotes=yes&labeling=labels&plugin=1 Population in EU (28) on 1 January 2017] ''Eurostat''</ref> !rowspan=2|Area<br />(km<sup>2</sup>) !colspan=2|GDP (nominal)<ref name=":0">{{Cite web|title=World Economic Outlook Database, April 2021|url=https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/weo-database/2021/April/weo-report?a=1&c=998,&s=NGDPD,PPPGDP,PPPPC,&sy=2019&ey=2026&ssm=0&scsm=1&scc=0&ssd=1&ssc=0&sic=0&sort=country&ds=.&br=1|access-date=23 July 2021|website=IMF|language=en}}</ref> !colspan=2|GDP (PPP)<ref name=":0"/> !rowspan=2|Military<br>expenditures<br/>(Int$ billion)<ref>{{Cite web|date=April 2023|title=Trends in world military expenditure-2022|url=https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2023-04/2304_fs_milex_2022.pdf|website=SIPRI}}</ref> !rowspan=2|HDI<ref>{{Cite report |url=https://hdr.undp.org/content/human-development-report-2025 |title=Human Development Report 2025 |author=United Nations |date=2025-05-06 |publisher=United Nations |language=en}}</ref> !rowspan=2|UN Security Council<br>veto power |- !(USD million) !Per capita ($) !(Int$ million) !Per capita (Int$) |---- | style="text-align: left" | {{flag|China}} | 1,411,778,724 | 9,596,961 | 19,231,705 | 13,687 | 39,440,000 | 21,291 | 314 | 0.797 (high) | Yes |---- | style="text-align: left" | {{nowrap|{{flag|European Union}}}} | 449,206,209 | 4,233,262 | 19,991,535 | 44,387 | 28,044,742 | 53,960 | 337.8<ref>{{Cite web|title=EU defence spending hits new records in 2023, 2024|url=https://eda.europa.eu/news-and-events/news/2024/12/04/eu-defence-spending-hits-new-records-in-2023-2024|access-date=2025-02-12|website=eda.europa.eu|language=en}}</ref> | 0.915 (very high) | (France) |- | style="text-align: left" | {{flag|Russia}} | 144,458,123 | 17,125,191 | 2,076,396 | 14,258 | 7,130,000 | 49,383 | 149 | 0.832 (very high) | Yes |---- | style="text-align: left" | {{flag|India}} | 1,456,604,163 | 3,287,263 | 4,187,017 | 2,878 | 17,360,000 | 10,475 | 86.1 | 0.685 (medium) | No |- | style="text-align: left" | {{flag|United States}} | 346,238,081 | 9,525,067 | 30,507,217 | 89,105 | 30,337,162 | 75,180 | 997 | 0.938 (very high) | Yes |}</div>

== Former candidates ==

=== Japan === In the 1980s, some political and economic analysts predicted that Japan would eventually accede to superpower status due to its large population, growing economic, military, industrial, technological and cultural influence, large gross domestic product, and high economic growth at that time.<ref>{{Citation |last=Smith |first=Dennis B. |title=The Emergence of the Economic Superpower: 1980 to the Present |date=1995 |work=Japan since 1945: The Rise of an Economic Superpower |pages=138–169 |editor-last=Smith |editor-first=Dennis B. |url=https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-24126-2_6 |access-date=2024-07-10 |place=London |publisher=Macmillan Education UK |language=en |doi=10.1007/978-1-349-24126-2_6 |isbn=978-1-349-24126-2|url-access=subscription }}</ref><ref name="Japan From Superrich To Superpower" /><ref>{{Cite web |last=Kreisberg |first=Paul |date=1988-12-11 |title=Japan: A Superpower Minus Military Power |url=https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1988-12-11-op-67-story.html |access-date=2024-07-10 |website=Los Angeles Times |language=en-US}}</ref> Japan's economy was expected to eventually surpass that of the United States.<ref name="Zakaria, F 2008">{{cite book |last=Zakaria |first=Fareed |author-link=Fareed Zakaria |url=https://archive.org/details/postamericanworl00zaka_199 |title=The Post-American World |date=2008 |publisher=W. W. Norton and Company |isbn=978-0-393-06235-9 |page=[https://archive.org/details/postamericanworl00zaka_199/page/n225 210] |url-access=limited}}</ref><ref name="Land of the setting sun">{{Cite news |date=November 12, 2009 |title=Land of the setting sun |url=https://www.economist.com/business/2009/11/12/land-of-the-setting-sun |newspaper=The Economist}}</ref><ref name="Japan From Superrich To Superpower">{{cite magazine |date=July 4, 1988 |title=Japan From Superrich To Superpower |url=https://content.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,967823,00.html |magazine=Time}}</ref> However, this prediction failed to materialise following a stock market crash and the resulting "Lost Decades", where Japan has suffered a flat to negative economic outlook,<ref name="Leika Kihara">{{cite news |author=Leika Kihara |date=17 August 2012 |title=Japan eyes end to decades long deflation |url=https://www.reuters.com/article/japan-economy-estimate-idUSL4E8JH1TC20120817#ySOkSfW3bZs8lVWK.97 |access-date=7 September 2012 |work=Reuters}}</ref> while its population has been aging since the late 1980s before suffering real decline in total population starting in 2011.<ref name=":1">{{cite web |url = https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jan/01/china-military-presence-superpower-collision-japan |title = China's military presence is growing. Does a superpower collision loom? |website = The Guardian |date=1 January 2014 |access-date=19 July 2014 }}</ref><ref>{{Cite news |date=2023-01-20 |title=Japan was the future but it's stuck in the past |url=https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-63830490 |access-date=2024-07-10 |language=en-GB}}</ref>

==Notes== {{notelist}}

== References == {{Reflist|30em}}

== External links == * [http://www.crp.polis.cam.ac.uk/ Centre for Rising Powers, University of Cambridge] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190504110212/http://www.crp.polis.cam.ac.uk/ |date=2019-05-04 }} * [https://repository.library.georgetown.edu/handle/10822/552652 China on the World Stage] from the [https://repository.library.georgetown.edu/handle/10822/552494 Dean Peter Krogh Foreign Affairs Digital Archives] * [https://www.thetimes.com/tto/news/world/asia/article3913602.ece Blast off: India hopes Mars rocket will enhance its superpower status] by The Times * [https://hbr.org/2007/12/china-india-the-power-of-two/ar/1 China and India: The Power of Two] by Harvard Business Review * [https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2012/04/the-end-of-pax-americana-how-western-decline-became-inevitable/256388/?single_page=true The End of Pax Americana: How Western Decline Became Inevitable] by The Atlantic * [https://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/2013/11/24/why-the-u-s-remains-the-worlds-unchallenged-superpower/ Why The U.S. Remains The World's Unchallenged Superpower]

{{International power}} {{DEFAULTSORT:Potential Superpowers}} Category:Emerging power Category:21st century Pot Category:Military terminology