Food prices

{{short description|Average price level for food across countries, regions and on a global scale}} thumb|upright=1.4|The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Food Price Index 1961–2021 in nominal and real terms. The Real Price Index is the Nominal Price Index deflated by the World Bank Manufactures Unit Value Index (MUV). Years 2014–2016 is 100. '''Food prices''' refer to the average price level for food across countries, regions and on a global scale.<ref>{{Cite journal|last1=Roser|first1=Max|author1-link=Max Roser |last2=Ritchie|first2=Hannah|author2-link=Hannah Ritchie |date=2013-10-08|title=Food Prices|url=https://ourworldindata.org/food-prices|journal=Our World in Data}}</ref> Food prices affect producers and consumers of food. Price levels depend on the food production process, including food marketing and food distribution. Fluctuation in food prices is determined by a number of compounding factors.<ref>{{Cite web|last=Amadeo|first=Kimberly|title=5 Causes of High Food Prices|url=https://www.thebalance.com/why-are-food-prices-rising-causes-of-food-price-inflation-3306099|access-date=2020-09-19|website=The Balance|language=en}}</ref> Geopolitical events, global demand, exchange rates,<ref>{{Cite book|url=https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/37951/|title=What's Driving Food Prices?|date=2008|editor-last=Abbott|editor-first=Philip C.|series=Issue Report|language=en|editor-last2=Hurt|editor-first2=Christopher|editor-last3=Tyner|editor-first3=Wallace E.}}</ref> government policy, diseases and crop yield, energy costs, availability of natural resources for agriculture,<ref>{{Cite journal|last1=Savary|first1=Serge|last2=Ficke|first2=Andrea|last3=Aubertot|first3=Jean-Noël|last4=Hollier|first4=Clayton|date=2012-12-01|title=Crop losses due to diseases and their implications for global food production losses and food security|url=https://doi.org/10.1007/s12571-012-0200-5|journal=Food Security|language=en|volume=4|issue=4|pages=519–537|doi=10.1007/s12571-012-0200-5|s2cid=3335739|issn=1876-4525|url-access=subscription}}</ref> food speculation,<ref>{{cite news|date=2010-07-18|title=Hedge funds accused of gambling with lives of the poorest as food prices soar|url=http://www.theguardian.com/business/2010/jul/19/speculators-commodities-food-price-rises|access-date=2020-09-19|work=The Guardian|language=en}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web|date=2014-12-09|title=Food speculation|url=https://www.globaljustice.org.uk/food-speculation|access-date=2020-09-19|website=Global Justice Now|language=en}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal|last=Spratt|first=S.|date=2013|title=Food price volatility and financial speculation|journal=FAC Working Paper 47|language=en|citeseerx=10.1.1.304.5228}}</ref> changes in the use of soil and weather events directly affect food prices.<ref>{{Cite web|title=Food Price Explained|url=https://futuresfundamentals.org/see-the-impact/agriculture-futures/food-prices-explained/|access-date=2020-09-19|website=Futures Fundamentals|language=en-US}}</ref> To a certain extent, adverse price trends can be counteracted by food politics.

The consequences of food price fluctuation are multiple. Increases in food prices, or agflation, endangers food security, particularly for developing countries, and can cause social unrest.<ref>{{Cite journal|last=Bellemare|first=Marc F.|date=2015|title=Rising Food Prices, Food Price Volatility, and Social Unrest|url=https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1093/ajae/aau038|journal=American Journal of Agricultural Economics|language=en|volume=97|issue=1|pages=1–21|doi=10.1093/ajae/aau038|s2cid=34238445|issn=1467-8276|hdl=10.1093/ajae/aau038|hdl-access=free|url-access=subscription}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web|last=Perez|first=Ines|title=Climate Change and Rising Food Prices Heightened Arab Spring|url=https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/climate-change-and-rising-food-prices-heightened-arab-spring/|access-date=2020-09-19|website=Scientific American|language=en}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web|last=Winecoff|first=Ore Koren, W. Kindred|title=Food Price Spikes and Social Unrest: The Dark Side of the Fed's Crisis-Fighting|url=https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/20/food-price-spikes-and-social-unrest-the-dark-side-of-the-feds-crisis-fighting/|access-date=2020-09-19|website=Foreign Policy|date=20 May 2020 |language=en-US}}</ref> Increases in food prices is related to disparities in diet quality and health,<ref>{{Cite journal|last1=Darmon|first1=Nicole|last2=Drewnowski|first2=Adam|date=2015-10-01|title=Contribution of food prices and diet cost to socioeconomic disparities in diet quality and health: a systematic review and analysis|url= |journal=Nutrition Reviews|language=en|volume=73|issue=10|pages=643–660|doi=10.1093/nutrit/nuv027|pmid=26307238|pmc=4586446|issn=0029-6643}}</ref> particularly among vulnerable populations, such as women and children.<ref>{{Cite journal|last1=Darnton-Hill|first1=Ian|last2=Cogill|first2=Bruce|date=2010-01-01|title=Maternal and Young Child Nutrition Adversely Affected by External Shocks Such As Increasing Global Food Prices|journal=The Journal of Nutrition|language=en|volume=140|issue=1|pages=162S–169S|doi=10.3945/jn.109.111682|pmid=19939995|issn=0022-3166|doi-access=free}}</ref>

Food prices will on average continue to rise due to a variety of reasons. Growing world population will put more pressure on the supply and demand. Climate change will increase extreme weather events, including droughts, storms and heavy rain, and overall increases in temperature will affect food production.<ref name=":1">{{cite web|date=2013|title=Climate Change: The Unseen Force Behind Rising Food Prices?|url=http://www.worldwatch.org/node/5434|url-status=dead|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180717075133/http://www.worldwatch.org/node/5434|archive-date=17 July 2018|access-date=7 June 2016|publisher=World Watch Institute}}</ref>

An intervention to reduce food loss or waste, if sufficiently large, will affect prices upstream and downstream in the supply chain relative to where the intervention occurred.<ref>{{Cite book|url=http://www.fao.org/documents/card/en/c/ca6122en|title=The State of Food and Agriculture 2019. Moving forward on food loss and waste reduction, In brief|publisher=FAO|year=2019|location=Rome|pages=18}}</ref> "The CPI (Consumer Price Index) for all food increased 0.8% from July 2022 to August 2022, and food prices were 11.4% higher than in August 2021."<ref>{{Cite web|url=http://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/food-price-outlook/summary-findings| title= Summary Findings Food Price Outlook, 2022 and 2023|publisher=USDA}}</ref>

== Factors == {{See also|World food crises (2022-present)#Causes}} === Energy costs === [[File:World population supported by synthetic nitrogen fertilizers, OWID.svg|thumb|World population supported with and without synthetic nitrogen fertilizers<ref>{{Cite web |title=World population with and without synthetic nitrogen fertilizers |url=https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/world-population-with-and-without-fertilizer |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200318062803/https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/world-population-with-and-without-fertilizer |archive-date=18 March 2020 |access-date=5 March 2020 |website=Our World in Data}}</ref>]] Food production is a very energy-intensive process. Energy is used in the raw materials for fertilizers to powering the facilities needed to process the food. Increases in the price of energy leads to an increase in the price of food.<ref>{{Cite web|title=USDA ERS - The Relationship Between Energy Prices and Food-Related Energy Use in the United States|url=http://www.ers.usda.gov/amber-waves/2017/june/the-relationship-between-energy-prices-and-food-related-energy-use-in-the-united-states|access-date=2020-09-19|website=www.ers.usda.gov}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web|title=As the Cost of Energy Goes Up, Food Prices Follow|url=https://blogs.worldbank.org/trade/cost-energy-goes-food-prices-follow|access-date=2020-09-19|website=blogs.worldbank.org|date=28 May 2013 |language=en}}</ref> Oil prices also affect the price of food.<ref>{{Cite web|last1=Canning|first1=Patrick|last2=Rehkamp|first2=Sarah|last3=Waters|first3=Arnold|last4=Etemadnia|first4=Hamideh|title=The Role of Fossil Fuels in the U.S. Food System and the American Diet|url=http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/pub-details?pubid=82193|access-date=2020-09-19|website=www.ers.usda.gov|language=en}}</ref> Food distribution is also affected by increases in oil prices,<ref>{{Cite web|title=How Oil Prices Affect the Price of Food|url=https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/How-Oil-Prices-Affect-The-Price-Of-Food.html|access-date=2020-09-19|website=OilPrice.com|language=en}}</ref> leading to increases in the price of food.

=== Weather events and climate change === {{Further|Effects of climate change on agriculture}} Adverse weather events such as droughts or heavy rain can cause harvest failure. There is evidence that extreme weather events and natural disasters cause increased food prices.{{Citation needed|date=September 2020}} Climate change will increase extreme weather events, including droughts, storms and heavy rain, and overall increases in temperature will affect food production.<ref name=":1" />

Water is a necessary natural resource for organic life making it an essential component in producing goods that sustains human life.<ref name=":0">{{Cite book |last1=Biswas |first1=Margaret R. |title=Food, Climate, and Man |last2=Biswas |first2=Asit K. |publisher=John Wiley & Sons |year=1979 |isbn=0471032409 |pages=52–53}}</ref> For example, a continuing drought in South Africa<ref>{{cite web |date=30 May 2016 |title=SA drought persists despite May rainfall |url=http://www.fin24.com/Economy/sa-drought-persists-despite-may-rainfall-20160530 |access-date=16 June 2016}}</ref> may - amongst other factors - have food inflation soar 11% until end of 2016 according to the South African Reserve Bank.<ref>{{cite news |author=Thandi Skade |date=29 March 2016 |title=SA's ticking food price bomb |journal=Destiny Man |url=http://www.destinyman.com/2016/03/29/sas-ticking-food-price-bomb/ |url-status=dead |access-date=9 June 2016 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170711050444/http://www.destinyman.com/2016/03/29/sas-ticking-food-price-bomb/ |archive-date=11 July 2017}}</ref> A drought turns fresh water into a rare commodity making it hard to come by in food production, thus inflating food prices.<ref name=":0" />

== Global differences == [[File:Tomatos Price Per Pound.jpg|thumb|Food pricing for tomatoes given in US dollars per pound]] thumb|Food price inflation was the highest in low-income countries, 2019–2024 The price of food has risen quite drastically during the 2007–08 and the 2010–2012 world food price crises. It has been most noticeable in developing countries while less so in the OECD countries and North America.<ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.economist.com/news/economic-and-financial-indicators/21607872-consumer-food-price-inflation|title=Consumer food-price inflation|newspaper=The Economist|date=19 July 2014}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.fao.org/economic/ess/ess-economic/cpi/en/|title=FAO Global and regional consumer food inflation monitoring|publisher=FAO}}</ref>

Consumer prices in the rich countries are massively influenced by the power of discount stores and constitute only a small part of the entire cost of living. In particular, Western pattern diet constituents like those that are processed by fast food chains are comparatively cheap in the Western hemisphere. Profits rely primarily on quantity (see mass production), less than high-price quality. For some product classes like dairy or meat, overproduction has twisted the price relations in a way utterly unknown in underdeveloped countries ("butter mountain"). The situation for poor societies is worsened by certain free trade agreements that allow easier export of food in the "southern" direction than vice versa.{{Clarify|date=September 2021|reason=What does Southern direction mean here?}} A striking example can be found in tomato exports from Italy to Ghana by virtue of the Economic Partnership Agreements where the artificially cheap vegetables play a significant role in the destruction of indigenous agriculture and a corresponding further decline in the already ailing economic power.<ref>{{cite news|url=http://www.zeit.de/2015/51/afrika-eu-handelspolitik-subventionen-armut-flucht|title=Afrika: Ein Mann pflückt gegen Europa|first1=Matthias|last1=Krupa|first2=Caterina|last2=Lobenstein|date=30 December 2015|access-date=16 June 2016|newspaper=Die Zeit}}</ref><ref>https://www.die-gdi.de/uploads/media/Economic_Partnership_Agreements_and_Food_Security.pdf {{Bare URL PDF|date=March 2022}}</ref>

While median global food price inflation rose from 2.3% in December 2020 to 13.6% in January 2023, low-income countries experienced significantly steeper increases, with inflation peaking at 30% in May 2023. This trend has undermined household purchasing power, with likely consequences for food security and nutrition. High food price inflation may worsen food security, particularly in low-income countries. A 10% increase in food prices is associated with a 3.5% rise in moderate to severe food insecurity, and a 1.8% increase in severe food insecurity. At the peak of inflation, 65% of low-income and 61% of lower-middle-income countries, home to 1.5 billion people, faced food price inflation above 10%, deepening inequalities.<ref name=":2">{{Cite book |last1=FAO |url=https://openknowledge.fao.org/handle/20.500.14283/cd6008en |title=The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2025 |last2=IFAD |last3=UNICEF |last4=WFP |last5=WHO |date=2025 |publisher=FAO ; IFAD ; UNICEF ; WFP ; WHO |isbn=978-92-5-139937-8 |language=English |doi=10.4060/cd6008en}}{{Creative Commons text attribution notice|cc=by4|from this source=yes}}</ref>

Year-on-year global average food price inflation increased from 5.8% in December 2020 to 23.3% in December 2022. These figures are heavily influenced by countries that experienced hyperinflation, such as the Sudan, Venezuela, and Zimbabwe, where year-on-year inflation peaks reached levels well above 350%. Using the median provides a more accurate reflection of global inflation levels: median food price inflation increased sharply from 2.3% in December 2020 to 13.6% in January 2023.<ref name=":2" />

Vulnerable groups, especially women and rural populations, are disproportionately affected due to limited resources, weaker social protection mechanisms, and fewer coping strategies. Child malnutrition can worsen with food price inflation. The 2021 to 2023 food price surge is associated with higher rates of wasting among children under five years of age. A 10% increase in food prices is associated with a 2.7% to 4.3% rise in overall wasting and a 4.8% to 6.1% increase in severe wasting among children under five years of age.<ref name=":2" />

Rising staple food prices have put additional pressure on the diets of low-income households. From 2019 to 2024, the steepest food price increase sin countries like Mexico, Nigeria and Pakistan were in starchy staple foods and oils. As starchy staple foods form the core of diets for the poorest households, such increases can undermine food security and nutrition; however, access to low-cost items in other food groups may help sustain dietary adequacy despite food price inflation.<ref name=":2" />

Relative food prices across food groups and processing levels remained fairly stable globally between 2011 and 2021. Nutrient-dense foods such as fruits and vegetables continue to be the most expensive per kilocalorie. In general, ultra-processed foods tend to have lower prices per kilocalorie compared to less processed alternatives. Ultra-processed foods are increasingly displacing more nutritious alternatives despite growing evidence of their adverse health impacts.<ref name=":2" />

Food price inflation has been particularly acute in Low Income Countries (LICs). Most households, even those dependent on agriculture for their livelihoods, rely on markets for their food supplies. Market-based food sourcing leaves households vulnerable to sharp price increases, exacerbating food insecurity, deepening poverty, and limiting access to and consumption of healthy diets. Smallholder farmers and agricultural labourers are often net food buyers, so rising food prices typically outweigh any income gains they receive from selling their produce.<ref name=":2" />

In more unequal countries, weaker social protection systems, limited fiscal space, and larger vulnerable populations leave disadvantaged groups, especially women and rural households, at greater risk. Gender-based constraints, such as lower earnings, caregiving responsibilities, and restricted access to resources, reduce women’s capacity to cope with inflation, often forcing them to cut back on food intake during crises.<ref name=":2" />

Controlling for access to essential services, including clean water, sanitation, and public health services, a 10% increase in food prices is associated with a 2.7% to 4.3% rise in wasting prevalence and a 4.8% to 6.1% increase in severe wasting among children under five years of age.<ref name=":2" />

== Monitoring == The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations has developed an "early warning tool" called the Food Price and Monitoring Analysis (FPMA).<ref>{{Cite web|title=Home {{!}} Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) {{!}} Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations|url=http://www.fao.org/giews/food-prices/home/en/|access-date=2020-09-19|website=www.fao.org}}</ref> After the food crisis of 2008 and 2011, FAO developed an "early warning indicator to detect abnormal growth in prices in consumer markets in the developing world".<ref>{{Cite web|title=Developing a price warning indicator as an early warning tool – a compound growth approach|url=http://www.fao.org/giews/food-prices/research/detail/en/c/235685/|access-date=2020-09-19|website=www.fao.org}}</ref> The FPMA uses a variety of data sources to feed their database.<ref>{{Cite web|title=Data Sources {{!}} Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA)|url=http://www.fao.org/giews/food-prices/data-partners/en/|access-date=2020-09-19|website=www.fao.org}}</ref>

Fluctuating food prices have led to some initiative in the industrialized world as well. In Canada, Dalhousie University and the University of Guelph publish Canada's Food Price Report every year, since 2010. Read by millions of people every year, the report monitors and forecasts food prices for the coming year.<ref>{{Cite web|title=Canada's Food Price Report 2019|url=https://www.dal.ca/faculty/management/news-events/canada-s-food-price-report.html|website=Dalhousie University}}</ref> The report was created by Canadian researchers Sylvain Charlebois and Francis Tapon.

==Measurements== ===Numbeo=== The Numbeo database "allows you to see, share and compare information about food prices worldwide and gives estimation of minimum money needed for food per person per day".<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.numbeo.com/food-prices/|title=Numbeo is the world's largest database about food prices worldwide|access-date=6 June 2016}}</ref>

=== FAO food price index === {{See also|FAO Food Price Index}}[[File:Annual real food price indices.svg|thumb|Food, meat, dairy, cereals, vegetable oil, and sugar price indices, deflated using the World Bank Manufactures Unit Value Index (MUV).<ref>{{cite web|title=Annual real food price indices|url=http://www.fao.org/fileadmin/templates/worldfood/Reports_and_docs/Food_price_indices_data.xls|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140401183726/http://www.fao.org/fileadmin/templates/worldfood/Reports_and_docs/Food_price_indices_data.xls|archive-date=1 April 2014|access-date=19 March 2014}}</ref> The peaks in 2008 and 2011 indicate global food crises. ]] The FAO food price index is a measure of the monthly change in international prices of a market basket of food commodities. It consists of the average of five commodity group price indices, weighted with the average export shares of each of the groups.<ref>{{cite web|title=FAO Food Price Index|url=http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/|access-date=6 June 2016|publisher=FAO}}</ref> # FAO Cereal price index # FAO Vegetable oil price index # FAO Dairy price index # FAO Meat price index # FAO Sugar Price index

{| class="wikitable sortable" |- !Year!!nominal price idx!!deflated price idx  |- |1990||107.2||100.4 |- |1991||105.0||98.7 |- |1992||109.2||101.1 |- |1993||105.5||97.1 |- |1994||110.3||101.3 |- |1995||125.3||105.3 |- |1996||131.1||113.7 |- |1997||120.3||111.3 |- |1998||108.6||105.6 |- |1999||93.2||92.6 |- |2000||91.1||92.4 |- |2001||94.6||101.0 |- |2002||89.6||96.2 |- |2003||97.7||98.1 |- |2004||112.7||105.0 |- |2005||118.0||106.8 |- |2006||127.2||112.7 |- |2007||161.4||134.6 |- |2008||'''201.4'''||'''155.7''' |- |2009||160.3||132.8 |- |2010||188.0||150.7 |- |2011||'''229.9'''||'''169.1''' |- |2012||213.3||158.8 |- |2013||209.8||158.5 |- |2014||201.8||152.0 |- |2015||164.0||123.2 |- |2016||151.6||112.3 |}

===World bank food price watch=== The World Bank releases the quarterly ''Food Price Watch report'' which highlights trends in domestic food prices in low- and middle-income countries, and outlines the (food) policy implications of food price fluctuations.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/poverty/publication/food-price-watch-home|title=Food Price Watch|access-date=16 June 2016}}</ref>

There are also some ways of measuring food prices that are more humorous. These include:

* The Big Mac Index, which compares the price of a McDonald's Big Mac hamburger across countries.<ref>{{cite news |date=9 April 1998 |title=Big MacCurrencies |url=https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/1998/04/09/big-maccurrencies |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20171227100228/http://www.economist.com/node/159859 |archive-date=27 December 2017 |access-date=27 November 2013 |newspaper=The Economist}}</ref> * The Jollof index, which calculates the price of food needed to make a Jollof rice, a popular African dish.<ref>{{Cite news |last=Erezi |first=Dennis |date=2022-04-28 |title=Jollof Index, Chicken Republic, inflation and changing food consumption patterns |url=https://guardian.ng/features/jollof-index-chicken-republic-inflation-and-changing-food-consumption-patterns/ |location=Lagos, Nigeria|access-date=2024-05-15 |newspaper=The Guardian|language=en-US}}</ref> * The Two Dishes One Soup Index, which calculates the price of food needed to cook one soup and two other dishes for a small family in Hong Kong.

==21st century price history== [[File:Food Price Index US.webp|thumb|300px|Food Price Index United States]] thumb|300x300px|Distinctive trajectories of food security and food price inflation, 2015–2023. thumb|300x300px|Relationship between food insecurity and food prices, 2014–2024. It is rare for price spikes to hit all major foods in most countries at once, but food prices suffered all-time peaks in 2008 and 2011, posting a 15% and 12% deflated increase year-over-year, representing prices higher than any data collected.<ref>{{cite web|title=FAO food prices index|url=http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180224070948/http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/|archive-date=24 February 2018|access-date=25 Feb 2018|website=FAO.org}}</ref> One reason for the increase in food prices may be the increase in oil prices at the same time.<ref>{{cite web|date=18 January 2008|title=The global grain bubble|url=https://www.csmonitor.com/2008/0118/p08s01-comv.html|work=Christian Science Monitor|access-date=24 October 2020|archive-date=30 November 2009|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20091130063759/http://www.csmonitor.com/2008/0118/p08s01-comv.html|url-status=dead}}</ref><ref>{{cite news|date=10 April 2008|title=The World Food Crisis|work=The New York Times|url=https://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/10/opinion/10thu1.html}}</ref>

It is rare for the spikes to hit all major foods in most countries at once. Food prices rose 4% in the United States in 2007, the highest increase since 1990, and are expected to climb as much again in 2008. As of December 2007, 37 countries faced food crises, and 20 had imposed some sort of food-price controls. In China, the price of pork jumped 58% in 2007. In the 1980s and 1990s, farm subsidies and support programs allowed major grain exporting countries to hold large surpluses which could be tapped during food shortages to keep prices down. However, new trade policies have made agricultural production much more responsive to market demands, putting global food reserves at their lowest since 1983.<ref name="cnn24march2008">"Food prices rising across the world", CNN. 24 March 2008</ref>

Food prices are rising, wealthier Asian consumers are westernizing their diets, and farmers and nations of the third world are struggling to keep up the pace. Asian nations have contributed at a more rapid growth rate in the past five years{{clarify|date=February 2026}} to the global fluid and powdered milk manufacturing industry. In 2008, this accounted for more than 30% of production with China accounting for more than 10% of both production and consumption in the global fruit and vegetable processing and preserving industry. The trend is similarly evident in industries such as soft drink and bottled water manufacturing, as well as global cocoa, chocolate, and sugar confectionery manufacturing.{{citation needed|date=February 2026}}

Rising food prices over recent years have been linked with social unrest around the world, including rioting in Bangladesh and Mexico,<ref name="Ind">{{cite news | url=https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/politics/the-real-hunger-games-how-banks-gamble-on-food-prices--and-the-poor-lose-out-7606263.html | title=The real hunger games: How banks gamble on food prices – and the poor lose out | newspaper=The Independent | access-date=1 April 2012}}</ref> and the Arab Spring.<ref>{{Cite news|url=https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2012/03/17/let-them-eat-baklava|title=Let them eat baklava|date=17 March 2012|newspaper=The Economist|access-date=21 December 2018|issn=0013-0613}}</ref>

In 2013, Overseas Development Institute researchers showed that rice has more than doubled in price since 2000, rising by 120% in real terms. This was as a result of shifts in trade policy and restocking by major producers. More fundamental drivers of increased prices are the higher costs of fertilizer, diesel and labor. Parts of Asia see rural wages rise with potentially large benefits for the 1.3 billion (2008 estimate) of Asia's poor in reducing the poverty they face. However, this harms more vulnerable groups who don't share in the economic boom, especially in Asian and African coastal cities. The researchers said the threat means social-protection policies are needed to guard against price shocks. The research proposed that in the longer run, the rises present opportunities to export for Western African farmers with a high potential for rice production to replace imports with domestic production.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.odi.org.uk/publications/7687-end-cheap-rice-prices-rural-labour-wages |title=The end of cheap rice: a cause for celebration? |publisher=Overseas Development Institute |access-date=6 March 2015 |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140619005820/http://www.odi.org.uk/publications/7687-end-cheap-rice-prices-rural-labour-wages |archive-date=19 June 2014 }}</ref>

During 2015–2020, global food prices were more stable and relatively low, after a sizable increase in late 2017, they are back under 75% of the nominal value seen during the all-time high in the 2011 food crisis. In the long term, prices are expected to stabilize.<ref name="cnn24march2008" /> Farmers will grow more grain for both fuel and food and eventually bring prices down.<ref name="cnn24march2008" /> This has already occurred with wheat,<ref>{{cite news|last=Kimball|first=Jack|date=7 August 2009|title=World food prices stabilize, no drop in sight: WFP|work=Reuters|url=https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE57652C20090807|access-date=6 March 2015}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|date=5 March 2010|title=Inflation slows in Feb. as food prices stabilize|url=http://www.gmanews.tv/story/185426/inflation-slows-in-feb-as-food-prices-stabilize|access-date=6 March 2015|publisher=GMA News}}</ref> with more crops planted in the United States, Canada, and Europe in 2009. However, the Food and Agriculture Organization projects that consumers still have to deal with more expensive food until at least 2018.<ref name="cnn24march2008" />

In 2021, global food prices rose significantly in larger part due to supply chain disruptions during the COVID pandemic ,<ref>{{cite news |title=Global food prices rose 'sharply' during 2021 |url=https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/01/1109212 |newspaper=UN News |date=6 January 2022}}</ref> and in 2022, the FAO reported that the world Food Price Index reached an all-time high in February, posting a 24% year-over-year increase. Most of the data for the February report was compiled before the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, but analysts said a prolonged conflict could have a major effect on grain exports catalyzing a further food crises.<ref>{{cite web |title=World Food Situation – FAO Food Price Index |url=https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/ |website=fao.org |access-date=5 March 2022}}</ref><ref>{{cite news |title=Food prices jump 24.1% yr/yr to hit record high in Feb, U.N. agency says |url=https://www.reuters.com/world/food-prices-hit-record-high-february-un-agency-says-2022-03-04/ |newspaper=Reuters |date=4 March 2022}}</ref><ref>{{cite news |title=Food Price Index hit record high in February, UN agency reports |url=https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/03/1113332 |newspaper=UN News |date=4 March 2022}}</ref>

In March 2024, Nigeria's food inflation rate reached 40.01% year-on-year, driven by currency depreciation, supply chain disruptions, and rising agricultural input costs. Essential food items like garri, millet, and yam tubers saw significant price hikes. This inflation exacerbates food insecurity and reduces household purchasing power.<ref>{{Cite web |date=2024-06-25 |title=Food Inflation and Its Impact on the Nigerian Market |url=https://naijaecho.com.ng/food-inflation-and-its-impact-on-nigerian-market/ |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240709150848/https://naijaecho.com.ng/food-inflation-and-its-impact-on-nigerian-market/ |archive-date=2024-07-09 |access-date=2024-07-09 |website=Naijaecho.com.ng |language=en-US}}</ref>

==See also== {{portal|Business and economics|Food}} {{div col|colwidth=30em}} *Global Hunger Index *Recent food crises: **2007–08 world food price crisis **2010–12 world food price crisis **2022–2023 food crises *Food riot *Agricultural marketing *Fast food, Junk food *Commodity risk *Subsistence crisis *Food inflation {{div col end}}

== Sources == {{Free-content attribution | title = The State of Food and Agriculture 2019. Moving forward on food loss and waste reduction, In brief | author = FAO | publisher = FAO | page numbers = 24 | source = | documentURL =http://www.fao.org/documents/card/en/c/ca6122en | license statement URL = https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:The_State_of_Food_and_Agriculture_2019._Moving_forward_on_food_loss_and_waste_reduction,_In_brief.pdf | license = CC BY-SA 3.0 }}

{{Free-content attribution | title = The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2025 | author = | publisher = Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations | documentURL = https://openknowledge.fao.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/de95e011-1af9-4b28-9a07-d8ce61f8aa6c/content/cd6008en.html | license statement URL = https://openknowledge.fao.org/items/4b1f7d26-267d-4a81-aed4-4f9de4d93f85 | license = CC BY 4.0 }}

==References== {{reflist|30em}}

==Literature== *{{cite book|title=Food Rebellions: Crisis and the Hunger for Justice|year=2009|editor=Eric Holt-Gimenez |editor2=Raj Patel|publisher= Food First Books |isbn=978-0935028348}} *{{cite book|title=Fast Food Nation: What The All-American Meal is Doing to the World|isbn=978-0141006871|year=2002|url-access=registration|url=https://archive.org/details/fastfoodnation00eric_2|last1=Schlosser|first1=Eric|publisher=Penguin Books Limited }}

==External links== *{{cite book|url=https://babel.hathitrust.org/cgi/pt?id=pur1.32754078079096;view=1up;seq=1|title=1975 food prize study, part 1|publisher=prepared by the staff of the Select Committee on Nutrition and Human Needs, United States Senate|year=1975}} *{{cite book|url=https://babel.hathitrust.org/cgi/pt?id=umn.31951d00829082m;view=1up;seq=2|title=1975 food prize study, part 2|publisher=prepared by the staff of the Select Committee on Nutrition and Human Needs, United States Senate|year=1975}} *{{cite web|url=http://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/food-price-outlook|title=Food price outlook 2016|publisher=Economic Research Service in the U.S. Department of Agriculture}} *{{cite web|url=http://www.ft.com/topics/themes/Food_prices|publisher=Financial Times|title=Food prices}} {{Authority control}}

Category:Price indices Category:Pricing Category:Food industry