{{Short description|Hypothetical future global conflict}} {{Redirect-several|World War III}} {{pp-move}} {{protection padlock|small=yes}} {{Use dmy dates|date=July 2025}} [[File:Castle Bravo Blast.jpg|thumb|Nuclear warfare is often the focus of a World War III scenario.]] '''World War III''',{{efn|Often abbreviated as '''WWIII''' or '''WW3'''}} also known as the '''Third World War''', is a hypothetical future global conflict subsequent to World War I (1914–1918) and World War II (1939–1945). It is widely predicted that such a war would involve all of the great powers, like its two predecessors, and the use of nuclear weapons or other weapons of mass destruction, thereby surpassing all prior conflicts in scale, devastation, and loss of life.
World War III was initially synonymous with the escalation of the Cold War (1947–1991) into conflict between the US-led Western Bloc and Soviet-led Eastern Bloc, though the United States and the Soviet Union never directly engaged. Since the United States' development and use of nuclear weapons in the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki at the end of World War II, the risk of a nuclear apocalypse causing widespread destruction and the potential collapse of modern civilization or human extinction has been central in speculation and fiction about World War III. The Soviet Union's development of nuclear weapons in 1949 spurred the nuclear arms race and was followed by several other countries.
Regional proxy wars, including the Korean War (1950–1953), Vietnam War (1955–1975), and Soviet–Afghan War (1979–1989), while significant, did not lead to a full-scale global conflict. Such a conflict was planned for by military and civil personnel around the world, with scenarios ranging from conventional warfare to limited or total nuclear warfare. The certainty of escalation from one stage to the next was extensively debated. For example, the Eisenhower administration promulgated a policy of massive retaliation with nuclear forces in response to a minor conventional attack. After the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962, which brought the U.S. and Soviet Union to the brink of war, the strategic doctrine of mutually assured destruction, which held that a full-scale nuclear war would annihilate all parties, became widely accepted. At the 1985 Geneva summit, U.S. and Soviet leaders first jointly stated "a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought". Advocates of deterrence theory hold that nuclear weapons prevent World War III–like great power conflict, while advocates of nuclear disarmament hold that their risks far outweigh this.<ref name="a365">{{cite web |date=4 February 2016 |title=Deterrence or Disarmament?: The Ethics of Nuclear Warfare |url=https://www.carnegiecouncil.org/media/article/deterrence-or-disarmament-the-ethics-of-nuclear-warfare |access-date=2 May 2025 |website=Carnegie Council for Ethics in International Affairs |archive-date=2 May 2025 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250502184043/https://www.carnegiecouncil.org/media/article/deterrence-or-disarmament-the-ethics-of-nuclear-warfare |url-status=live }}</ref>
Since the end of the Cold War in 1991, speculation about World War III has shifted toward emerging threats, including terrorism and cyberwarfare. Great power competition has been renewed between the United States, China, and Russia, sometimes termed a Second Cold War. Various conflicts, most significantly the current phase of the Russo-Ukrainian war (2022–present), the Middle Eastern crisis (2023–present) which includes the 2026 Iran war, and rising tensions over the status of Taiwan, have been perceived as flashpoints for World War III.<ref name="Singer-2015" /><ref>{{Citation |title=Is this the start of World War III? |date=10 May 2022 |url=https://www.dw.com/en/is-this-the-start-of-world-war-iii/av-63346517 |publisher=Deutsche Welle |access-date=11 October 2022 |archive-date=11 October 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20221011154239/https://www.dw.com/en/is-this-the-start-of-world-war-iii/av-63346517 |url-status=live }}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |date=2018-04-17 |title=Are we on the brink of World War Three? |url=https://theweek.com/92967/are-we-heading-towards-world-war-3 |access-date=2026-03-24 |website=The Week |language=en-GB}}</ref>
==Etymology== ===''Time'' magazine=== ''Time'' magazine was an early adopter, if not originator, of the term "World War{{nbsp}}III". The first usage appears in its 3 November 1941 issue (preceding the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor on 7 December 1941) under its "National Affairs" section and entitled "World War{{nbsp}}III?" about Nazi refugee Hermann Rauschning, who had just arrived in the United States and his belief that there would be a pause in fighting before Hitler would attempt to invade Great Britain.<ref name="Time-1941">{{cite magazine | title = Foreign News: World War III? | magazine = Time | url = https://content.time.com/time/subscriber/article/0,33009,772740,00.html | date = 3 November 1941 | access-date = 12 August 2017 | archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20171015160850/http://content.time.com/time/subscriber/article/0,33009,772740,00.html | archive-date = 15 October 2017 | url-status = live }}</ref> In its 22 March 1943, issue under its "Foreign News" section, ''Time'' reused the same title "World War{{nbsp}}III?" about statements by then–US Vice President Henry A. Wallace: "We shall decide sometime in 1943 or 1944{{nbsp}}... whether to plant the seeds of World War III" in reference to a potential war between the United State and the Soviet Union.<ref>{{cite magazine | title = Foreign News: World War III? | magazine = Time | url = https://content.time.com/time/subscriber/article/0,33009,796086,00.html | date = 22 March 1943 | access-date = 12 August 2017 | archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20171015162804/http://content.time.com/time/subscriber/article/0,33009,796086,00.html | archive-date = 15 October 2017 | url-status = live }}</ref><ref>{{cite magazine | title = International: Or Else? | magazine = Time | url = https://content.time.com/time/subscriber/article/0,33009,774258,00.html | date = 15 February 1943 | access-date = 12 August 2017 | archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20190520021907/http://content.time.com/time/subscriber/article/0,33009,774258,00.html | archive-date = 20 May 2019 | url-status = live }}</ref> ''Time'' continued to entitle with or mention in stories the term "World War{{nbsp}}III" for the rest of the decade and onwards: 1944,<ref>{{cite magazine | title = Germany: For World War III | magazine = Time | url = https://content.time.com/time/subscriber/article/0,33009,778177,00.html | date = 5 June 1944 | access-date = 12 August 2017 | archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20190518120449/http://content.time.com/time/subscriber/article/0,33009,778177,00.html | archive-date = 18 May 2019 | url-status = live }}</ref><ref>{{cite magazine | title = Science: World War III Preview? | magazine = Time | url = https://content.time.com/time/subscriber/article/0,33009,791497,00.html | date = 10 July 1944 | access-date = 12 August 2017 | archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20190520060617/http://content.time.com/time/subscriber/article/0,33009,791497,00.html | archive-date = 20 May 2019 | url-status = live }}</ref> 1945,<ref>{{cite magazine | title = Letters, Oct. 1, 1945 | magazine = Time | url = https://content.time.com/time/subscriber/article/0,33009,776125,00.html | date = 1 October 1945 | access-date = 12 August 2017 | archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20190520045344/http://content.time.com/time/subscriber/article/0,33009,776125,00.html | archive-date = 20 May 2019 | url-status = live }}</ref><ref>{{cite magazine | title = Policies & Principles: Morgenthau's Hope | magazine = Time | url = https://content.time.com/time/subscriber/article/0,33009,792411,00.html | date = 15 October 1945 | access-date = 12 August 2017 | archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20190519012246/http://content.time.com/time/subscriber/article/0,33009,792411,00.html | archive-date = 19 May 2019 | url-status = live }}</ref> 1946 ("bacterial warfare"),<ref>{{cite magazine | title = Science: World War III Preview | magazine = Time | url = https://content.time.com/time/subscriber/article/0,33009,888189,00.html | date = 25 March 1946 | access-date = 12 August 2017 | archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20190520071938/http://content.time.com/time/subscriber/article/0,33009,888189,00.html | archive-date = 20 May 2019 | url-status = live }}</ref> 1947,<ref>{{cite magazine | title = Medicine: Germs for World War III? | magazine = Time | url = https://content.time.com/time/subscriber/article/0,33009,804442,00.html | date = 29 December 1947 | access-date = 12 August 2017 | archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20190519190818/http://content.time.com/time/subscriber/article/0,33009,804442,00.html | archive-date = 19 May 2019 | url-status = live }}</ref> and 1948.<ref>{{cite magazine | title = The Nations: The Chances of World War III | magazine = Time | url = https://content.time.com/time/subscriber/article/0,33009,779694,00.html | date = 15 March 1948 | access-date = 12 August 2017 | archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20190520031510/http://content.time.com/time/subscriber/article/0,33009,779694,00.html | archive-date = 20 May 2019 | url-status = live }}</ref> ''Time'' persists in using this term, for example, in a 2015 book review entitled "This Is What World War III Will Look Like".<ref>{{cite magazine |date=30 June 2015 |title=Security: This Is What World War III Will Look Like |url=https://time.com/3934583/world-war-3/ |url-status=live |magazine=Time |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170813081754/http://time.com/3934583/world-war-3/ |archive-date=13 August 2017 |access-date=12 August 2017}}</ref>
==Military plans== <!--NOTE: the sources MUST mention WW3 or the content does not belong here, per WP:NOR--> Military strategists have used war games to prepare for various war scenarios and to determine the most appropriate strategies. War games were utilized for World War I and World War II.<ref>{{Cite book |last=Caffrey |first=Matthew B. |title=On wargaming: how wargames have shaped history and how they may shape the future |date=2019 |others=Naval War College. Press, Naval War College. Center for Naval Warfare Studies |isbn=978-1-935352-65-5 |location=Newport, Rhode Island |publisher=Naval War College Press |oclc=1083699795 }}</ref>
===Operation Unthinkable=== {{main|Operation Unthinkable}}
In April–May 1945, the British Armed Forces developed Operation Unthinkable, thought to be the first scenario of the Third World War.<ref>{{in lang|en}} {{cite book |author1=Jonathan Walker |title=Operation Unthinkable: The Third World War|date=2013 |publisher=The History Press |isbn=978-0-7524-8718-2 |page=192 }}</ref> Its primary goal was "to impose upon Russia the will of the United States and the British Empire".<ref>{{cite web| author1=((British War Cabinet)) |author2=((Joint Planning Staff)) |author3=((Public Record Office)) | date = 11 August 1945 | url = http://www.history.neu.edu/PRO2/| title = Operation Unthinkable: 'Russia: Threat to Western Civilization'| format = online photocopy| publisher = Department of History, Northeastern University| access-date = 28 June 2008| archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20080706093010/http://www.history.neu.edu/PRO2/ <!--Added by H3llBot-->| archive-date = 6 July 2008}}</ref> British prime minister Winston Churchill was concerned that, with the enormous size of Soviet Red Army forces deployed in Central and Eastern Europe at the end of World War II and the perceived unreliability of the Soviet leader Joseph Stalin, there was a serious threat to Western Europe. The plan was rejected by the British Chiefs of Staff Committee as militarily unfeasible.
===Operation Dropshot=== {{Main|Operation Dropshot}}
Operation Dropshot was the 1949 United States contingency plan for a possible nuclear and conventional war with the Soviet Union in the Western European and Asian theaters. Although the scenario made use of nuclear weapons, they were not expected to play a decisive role.
At the time, the US nuclear arsenal was limited in size, based mostly in the United States, and depended on bombers for delivery. Dropshot included mission profiles that would have used 300 nuclear bombs and 29,000 high-explosive bombs on 200 targets in 100 cities and towns to wipe out 85% of the Soviet Union's industrial potential in a single stroke. Between 75 and 100 of the 300 nuclear weapons were targeted to destroy Soviet combat aircraft on the ground.
The scenario was devised before the development of intercontinental ballistic missiles. It was also devised before US president John F. Kennedy and his Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara changed the US Nuclear War plan from the 'city killing' countervalue strike plan to a "counterforce" plan (targeted more at military forces). Nuclear weapons at this time were not accurate enough to hit a naval base without destroying the city adjacent to it, so the aim of using them was to destroy the enemy's industrial capacity to cripple their war economy.
=== British-Irish cooperation === Ireland started planning for a possible nuclear war in the late 1940s. Co-operation between the United Kingdom and Ireland would be formed in the event of WWIII, where they would share weather data, control aids to navigation, and coordinate the Wartime Broadcasting Service that would occur after a nuclear attack.<ref name="Kennedy-2017">{{Cite journal |last=Kennedy |first=Michael |date=2017 |title=ENVISAGING THE UNTHINKABLE: PLANNING FOR ARMAGEDDON IN 1950s IRELAND |url=https://www.jstor.org/stable/90005263 |journal=History Ireland |volume=25 |issue=1 |pages=36–39 |jstor=90005263 |issn=0791-8224 |access-date=2 May 2022 |archive-date=2 May 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220502180344/https://www.jstor.org/stable/90005263 |url-status=live }}</ref> Operation Sandstone in Ireland was a top-secret British-Irish military operation.<ref name="Kennedy-2017"/> The armed forces from both states began a coastal survey of Britain and Ireland cooperating from 1948 to 1955. This was a request from the United States to identify suitable landing grounds for the US in the event of a successful Soviet invasion.<ref name="Kennedy-2017"/><ref name="Archives-2020">{{Cite web |last=Archives |first=The National |date=3 April 2020 |title=The National Archives - Operation Sandstone: Surveying Britain's Cold War beaches |url=https://blog.nationalarchives.gov.uk/operation-sandstone-surveying-britains-cold-war-beaches/ |access-date=2 May 2022 |website=The National Archives blog |language=en-GB |archive-date=27 November 2020 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20201127004120/https://blog.nationalarchives.gov.uk/operation-sandstone-surveying-britains-cold-war-beaches/ |url-status=live }}</ref> By 1953, the co-operation agreed upon sharing information on wartime weather and the evacuation of civilian refugees from Britain to Ireland.<ref name="Kennedy-2017"/> Ireland's Operation Sandstone ended in 1966.<ref name="Archives-2020"/>
===Seven Days to the River Rhine=== {{Main|Seven Days to the River Rhine}}
thumb|A Warsaw Pact invasion would have come via three main paths through West Germany.
Seven Days to the River Rhine was a top-secret military simulation exercise developed in 1979 by the Warsaw Pact. It started with the assumption that NATO would launch a nuclear attack on the Vistula river valley in a first-strike scenario, which would result in as many as two million Polish civilian casualties.<ref>{{Cite news |author=Nicholas Watt in Warsaw |url=https://www.theguardian.com/world/2005/nov/26/russia.poland#article_continue |title=Poland risks Russia's wrath with Soviet nuclear attack map | World news |work=The Guardian |date=26 November 2005 |access-date=4 March 2015 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170205090700/https://www.theguardian.com/world/2005/nov/26/russia.poland#article_continue |archive-date=5 February 2017 |url-status=live }}</ref> In response, a Soviet counter-strike would be carried out against West Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands and Denmark, with Warsaw Pact forces invading West Germany and aiming to stop at the River Rhine by the seventh day. Other USSR plans stopped only upon reaching the French border on day nine. Individual Warsaw Pact states were only assigned their subpart of the strategic picture; in this case, the Polish forces were only expected to go as far as Germany. The Seven Days to the Rhine plan envisioned that Poland and Germany would be largely destroyed by nuclear exchanges and that large numbers of troops would die of radiation sickness. It was estimated that NATO would fire nuclear weapons behind the advancing Soviet lines to cut off their supply lines and thus blunt their advance. While this plan assumed that NATO would use nuclear weapons to push back any Warsaw Pact invasion, it did not include nuclear strikes on France or the United Kingdom. Newspapers speculated when this plan was declassified, that France and the UK were not to be hit to get them to withhold the use of their nuclear weapons.
===NATO nuclear sharing=== {{main|Nuclear sharing}}
thumb|An example of nuclear artillery power test in the US
NATO operational plans for a Third World War have involved NATO allies who do not have their nuclear weapons, using nuclear weapons supplied by the United States as part of a general NATO war plan, under the direction of NATO's Supreme Allied Commander.
[[File:Overzicht op Museumplein met spandoek The Dutch disease is better for peace o, Bestanddeelnr 253-8627.jpg|thumb|Protest in Amsterdam against the nuclear arms race between the US/NATO and the Soviet Union, 1981]]
Of the three nuclear powers in NATO (France, the United Kingdom, and the United States), only the United States has provided weapons for nuclear sharing. {{As of|2009|11}}, Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Turkey are still hosting US nuclear weapons as part of NATO's nuclear sharing policy.<ref name="Chalmers-2010">{{Citation|url=http://www.rusi.org/publications/occasionalpapers/ref:O4B991ABDC4148/|title=NATO's Tactical Nuclear Dilemma|author=Malcolm Chalmers|author2=Simon Lunn|name-list-style=amp|date=March 2010|publisher=Royal United Services Institute|access-date=16 March 2010|postscript=.|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140202224340/http://www.rusi.org/publications/occasionalpapers/ref:O4B991ABDC4148/|archive-date=2 February 2014|url-status=live}}</ref><ref>{{Cite news |url=http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,618550,00.html |title=Der Spiegel: ''Foreign Minister Wants US Nukes out of Germany'' (2009-04-10) |date=10 April 2009 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120214122303/http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0%2C1518%2C618550%2C00.html |archive-date=14 February 2012 |url-status=live |newspaper=Spiegel Online}}</ref> Canada hosted weapons until 1984,<ref name="Clearwater-1998">{{citation|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=5-R7EJ0r680C|title=Canadian Nuclear Weapons: The Untold Story of Canada's Cold War Arsenal|author=John Clearwater|date=1998|publisher=Dundurn Press Ltd.|isbn=978-1-55002-299-5|access-date=10 November 2008|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170322111958/https://books.google.com/books?id=5-R7EJ0r680C|archive-date=22 March 2017|url-status=live}}</ref> and Greece until 2001.<ref name="Chalmers-2010" /><ref>{{citation|page=26|url=http://www.nrdc.org/nuclear/euro/euro.pdf|title=U.S. Nuclear Weapons in Europe|author=Hans M. Kristensen|author-link=Hans M. Kristensen|date=February 2005|publisher=Natural Resources Defense Council|access-date=2 April 2009|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140723003003/http://www.nrdc.org/nuclear/euro/euro.pdf|archive-date=23 July 2014|url-status=live}}</ref> The United Kingdom also received US tactical nuclear weapons such as nuclear artillery and Lance missiles until 1992, despite the UK being a nuclear weapons state in its own right; these were mainly deployed in Germany.
In peacetime, the nuclear weapons stored in non-nuclear countries are guarded by US airmen though previously some artillery and missile systems were guarded by US Army soldiers; the codes required for detonating them are under American control. In case of war, the weapons are to be mounted on the participating countries' warplanes. The weapons are under custody and control of USAF Munitions Support Squadrons co-located on NATO main operating bases that work together with the host nation forces.<ref name="Chalmers-2010" />
{{As of|2005|post=,}} 180 tactical B61 nuclear bombs of the 480 US nuclear weapons believed to be deployed in Europe fall under the nuclear sharing arrangement.<ref>{{citation|url=http://www.nrdc.org/nuclear/euro/euro.pdf|title=U.S. Nuclear Weapons in Europe|author=Hans M. Kristensen|author-link=Hans M. Kristensen|date=February 2005|publisher=Natural Resources Defense Council|access-date=2 April 2009|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140723003003/http://www.nrdc.org/nuclear/euro/euro.pdf|archive-date=23 July 2014|url-status=live}}</ref> The weapons are stored within a vault in hardened aircraft shelters, using the USAF WS3 Weapon Storage and Security System. The delivery warplanes used are F-16 Fighting Falcons and Panavia Tornados.<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.nukestrat.com/pubs/Brief_Italy2007.pdf |title=U.S. Nuclear Weapons in Europe After the Cold War |author=Hans M. Kristensen |publisher=Federation of American Scientists |date=5 October 2007 |access-date=10 August 2013 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120202112109/http://www.nukestrat.com/pubs/Brief_Italy2007.pdf |archive-date=2 February 2012 |url-status=live }}</ref>
==Historical conflicts and incidents== {{main|Nuclear warfare}} <!--NOTE: the sources MUST mention WW3 or the content does not belong here, per WP:NOR-->{{see also|List of nuclear close calls}}
With the initiation of the Cold War arms race in the 1950s, an apocalyptic war between the United States and the Soviet Union became a real possibility. During the Cold War era (1947–1991), several military events have been described as having come close to potentially triggering World War{{nbsp}}III. Even after the end of the Cold War and the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, some incidents afterward have been described as close calls as well.
===Cold War=== {{Main|Cold War}}
[[File:World nuclear weapons.png|thumb|Large nuclear weapons stockpile with global range (dark blue), smaller stockpile with global range (medium blue), smaller stockpile with regional range (light blue)]]
As Soviet-American relations grew tense in the post–World War{{nbsp}}II period, the fear that the tension could escalate into World War{{nbsp}}III was ever-present. A Gallup poll in December 1950 found that more than half of Americans considered World War{{nbsp}}III to have already started.<ref>{{cite book |last1=Reed |first1=Thomas C. |author-link1=Thomas C. Reed |title=At the Abyss: An Insider's History of the Cold War |date=2004 |publisher=Presidio Press |isbn=0-89141-837-7 |page=41 |lccn=2004098248 |chapter=3. The Paparazzi Pilots|title-link=At the Abyss: An Insider's History of the Cold War }} (via [https://books.google.com/books?id=69Vvboox1JcC&pg=PA41 Google Books] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210418181819/https://books.google.com/books?id=69Vvboox1JcC&pg=PA41 |date=18 April 2021 }})</ref>
In 2004, commentator Norman Podhoretz proposed that the Cold War, lasting from the surrender of the Axis powers until the fall of the Berlin Wall, might rightly be called World War{{nbsp}}III. However, the majority of historians hold that World War{{nbsp}}III would have to be a worldwide "war in which large forces from many countries fought"<ref>[http://dictionary.cambridge.org/us/dictionary/english/world-war Definition of "World War": Cambridge Dictionary] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170422131655/http://dictionary.cambridge.org/us/dictionary/english/world-war |date=22 April 2017 }} Cambridge University Press. Downloaded 21 April 2017.</ref> and a war that "involves most of the principal nations of the world".<ref>[http://www.dictionary.com/browse/world-war Definition of "World War": Random House] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170422211923/http://www.dictionary.com/browse/world-war |date=22 April 2017 }} Random House/ Dictionary.com. 2017. Downloaded 21 April 2017.</ref> The Cold War was termed as such due to a lack of direct action by the two main belligerents, the United States and the Soviet Union, out of fear that a nuclear war would possibly destroy humanity.<ref>{{Cite web |title=American History: The Cold War |url=https://learningenglish.voanews.com/a/american-history-the-cold-war-130292758/116228.html |access-date=2 May 2022 |website=VOA |date=21 September 2011 |language=en |archive-date=1 February 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220201012146/https://learningenglish.voanews.com/a/american-history-the-cold-war-130292758/116228.html |url-status=live }}</ref> In his book ''Secret Weapons of the Cold War'', Bill Yenne concludes that the military superpower standoff from the 1940s through to 1991 was not World War{{nbsp}}III.<ref>Yenne, Bill (2005). ''Secret Weapons of the Cold War.'' Berkly Book, New York</ref>
=== Korean War: 25 June 1950 – 27 July 1953 === {{Main|Korean conflict|Korean War}}
The Korean War was a war between two coalitions fighting for control over the Korean Peninsula: a communist coalition including North Korea, the People's Republic of China, and the Soviet Union, and a capitalist coalition including South Korea, the United States and the United Nations Command. Many then believed that the conflict was likely to soon escalate into a full-scale war between the three countries, the U.S., the U.S.S.R., and China. CBS News war correspondent Bill Downs wrote in 1951, "To my mind, the answer is: Yes, Korea is the beginning of World War{{nbsp}}III. The brilliant landings at Inchon and the cooperative efforts of the American armed forces with the United Nations Allies have won us a victory in Korea. But this is only the first battle in a major international struggle which now is engulfing the Far East and the entire world."<ref>{{cite news|last=Downs|first=Bill|title=World War III in Asia?|newspaper=See Magazine|date=March 1951}}</ref> Downs afterwards repeated this belief on ''ABC Evening News'' while reporting on the USS ''Pueblo'' incident in 1968.<ref>{{cite web|last=Downs|first=Bill|title=The USS Pueblo incident|url=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-KBxiX_9_Kk|work=ABC Evening News|publisher=ABC |access-date=8 November 2013|date=25 January 1968|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140615095207/http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-KBxiX_9_Kk|archive-date=15 June 2014|url-status=live}}</ref> Secretary of State Dean Acheson later acknowledged that the Truman administration was concerned about the escalation of the conflict and that General Douglas MacArthur warned him that a U.S.-led intervention risked a Soviet response.<ref>Carson, Austin (31 December 2018), ''Secret Wars: Covert Conflict in International Politics'', Princeton University Press, p. 152, {{doi|10.1515/9780691184241-006}}, {{ISBN|978-0-691-18424-1}}, retrieved 16 February 2022.</ref>
=== Cuban Missile Crisis: 15–29 October 1962 === {{Main|Cuban Missile Crisis|Soviet submarine B-59}}
[[File:Soviet b-59 submarine.jpg|thumb|A US Navy HSS-1 Seabat helicopter hovers over Soviet submarine ''B-59'', forced to the surface by US Naval forces in the Caribbean near Cuba. B-59 had a nuclear torpedo on board, and three officer keys were required to use it. Only one dissent prevented the submarine from attacking the US fleet nearby, a spark that could have led to a Third World War (28–29 October 1962).]]
The Cuban Missile Crisis, a confrontation on the stationing of Soviet nuclear missiles in Cuba in response to the failed Bay of Pigs Invasion, is considered as having been the closest to a nuclear exchange, which could have precipitated a third World War.<ref>{{cite book|first1=Len|last1=Scott|first2=R. Gerald|last2=Hughes|title=The Cuban Missile Crisis: A Critical Reappraisal|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=UJEGCAAAQBAJ&pg=PT17|year=2015|publisher=Taylor & Francis|page=17|isbn=978-1-317-55541-4|access-date=13 September 2020|archive-date=29 July 2016|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160729014313/https://books.google.com/books?id=UJEGCAAAQBAJ&pg=PT17|url-status=live}}</ref> The crisis peaked on 27 October, with three separate major incidents occurring on the same day: * The most critical incident occurred when a Soviet submarine nearly launched a nuclear-tipped torpedo in response to having been targeted by American naval depth charges in international waters, with the Soviet nuclear launch response only having been prevented by Soviet Navy executive officer Vasily Arkhipov. * The shooting down of a Lockheed U-2 spy plane piloted by Rudolf Anderson while violating Cuban airspace. * The near interception of another U-2 that had strayed into Soviet airspace over Siberia, which airspace violation nearly caused the Soviets to believe that this might be the vanguard of a US aerial bombardment.
Despite what many believe to be the closest the world has come to a nuclear conflict, throughout the entire standoff, the Doomsday Clock, which is run by the ''Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists'' to estimate how close the end of the world, or doomsday, is, with midnight being the apocalypse, stayed at a relatively stable seven minutes to midnight. This has been explained as being due to the brevity of the crisis since the clock monitored more long-term factors such as the leadership of countries, conflicts, wars, and political upheavals, as well as societies' reactions to said factors.
The ''Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists'' now credits the political developments resulting from the Cuban Missile Crisis with having enhanced global stability. The ''Bulletin'' posits that future crises and occasions that might otherwise escalate, were rendered more stable due to two major factors: # A Washington to Moscow hotline resulted from the communication trouble between the White House and the Kremlin during the crisis. This gave the leaders of the two largest nuclear powers the ability to contact each other in real-time, vital when seconds could potentially prevent a nuclear exchange. # The second factor was caused in part due to the worldwide reaction to how close the US and USSR had come to the brink of World War{{nbsp}}III during the standoff. As the public began to more closely monitor topics involving nuclear weapons, and therefore to rally support for the cause of non-proliferation, the 1963 test ban treaty was signed. To date this treaty has been signed by 126 total nations, with the most notable exceptions being France and China. Both of these countries were still in the relative beginning stages of their nuclear programs at the time of the original treaty signing, and both sought nuclear capabilities independent of their allies. This Test Ban Treaty prevented the testing of nuclear ordnance that detonated in the atmosphere, limiting nuclear weapons testing to below ground and underwater, decreasing fallout and effects on the environment, and subsequently caused the Doomsday Clock to decrease by five minutes, to arrive at a total of twelve minutes to midnight.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://thebulletin.org/remembering-cuban-missile-crisis |title=Remembering the Cuban Missile Crisis |date=16 October 2012 |website=thebulletin.org |access-date=10 March 2018 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180201052807/https://thebulletin.org/remembering-cuban-missile-crisis |archive-date=1 February 2018 |url-status=live }}</ref> Up until this point, over 1000 nuclear bombs had been detonated, and concerns over both long and short term effects to the planet became increasingly more worrisome to scientists.
=== Yom Kippur War superpower tensions: 6–25 October 1973 === {{Main|Yom Kippur War}}
The Yom Kippur War, also known as the Ramadan War, or October War, began with a surprise invasion of Israeli-occupied territories by a coalition of Arab states, aided by the Soviet Union. Israel successfully counterattacked with the aid of the US. Tensions grew between the two superpowers: American and Soviet naval forces came close to firing upon each other in the Mediterranean Sea. Admiral Daniel J. Murphy of the US Sixth Fleet reckoned the chances of the Soviet squadron attempting a first strike against his fleet at 40 percent. The Pentagon moved Defcon status from 4{{nbsp}}to{{nbsp}}3.<ref>{{cite news|url=http://www.globalpost.com/dispatches/globalpost-blogs/commentary/the-little-known-us-soviet-confrontation-during-yom-kippur-wa|title=The little-known US-Soviet confrontation during Yom Kippur War|newspaper=The World from PRX|access-date=27 May 2014|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140422135143/http://www.globalpost.com/dispatches/globalpost-blogs/commentary/the-little-known-us-soviet-confrontation-during-yom-kippur-wa|archive-date=22 April 2014|url-status=live}}</ref> The superpowers had been pushed to the brink of war, but tensions eased with the ceasefire brought in under UNSC 339.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://nationalpost.com/opinion/erol-araf-incalculable-consequences|title=Erol Araf: 'Incalculable consequences'|date=7 October 2013|access-date=5 February 2017|archive-date=5 February 2017|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170205101243/http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/erol-araf-incalculable-consequences|url-status=live}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.psupress.org/books/titles/0-271-01489-X.html|title=Inside the Kremlin During the Yom Kippur War By Victor Israelyan|access-date=27 May 2014|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140706024838/http://www.psupress.org/books/titles/0-271-01489-X.html|archive-date=6 July 2014|url-status=live}}</ref>
=== NORAD computer error: 9 November 1979 === The United States made emergency retaliation preparations after NORAD systems indicated that a full-scale Soviet attack had been launched.<ref>{{cite web |date=20 November 2012 |title=Norad false alarm causes uproar |url=http://www.cbc.ca/archives/categories/war-conflict/defence/norad-watching-the-skies/norad-false-alarm-causes-uproar.html |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20141108204905/http://www.cbc.ca/archives/categories/war-conflict/defence/norad-watching-the-skies/norad-false-alarm-causes-uproar.html |archive-date=8 November 2014 |access-date=17 March 2015 |publisher=CBC Canada}}</ref> No attempt was made to use the Moscow–Washington hotline to clarify the situation with the USSR and it was not until early-warning radar systems confirmed no such launch had taken place that NORAD realized that a computer system test had caused the display errors. A senator inside the NORAD facility at the time described an atmosphere of absolute panic. A GAO investigation led to the construction of an off-site test facility to prevent similar mistakes.<ref>{{cite web|last1=Andrews|first1=Evan|title=5 Cold War Close Calls|url=http://www.history.com/news/history-lists/5-cold-war-close-calls|publisher=The History Channel|access-date=17 March 2015|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20141231010823/http://www.history.com/news/history-lists/5-cold-war-close-calls|archive-date=31 December 2014|url-status=live}}</ref>
=== Soviet radar malfunction: 26 September 1983 === {{Main|1983 Soviet nuclear false alarm incident}}
A false alarm occurred on the Soviet nuclear early warning system, showing the launch of American LGM-30 Minuteman intercontinental ballistic missiles from bases in the United States. A retaliatory attack was prevented by Stanislav Petrov, a Soviet Air Defence Forces officer, who realised the system had simply malfunctioned (which was borne out by later investigations).<ref name="Hoffman-1999">{{cite news | url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/inatl/longterm/coldwar/shatter021099b.htm | title=I Had A Funny Feeling in My Gut | first=David | last=Hoffman | newspaper=Washington Post | date=10 February 1999 | access-date=18 September 2017 | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20111130234943/http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/inatl/longterm/coldwar/shatter021099b.htm | archive-date=30 November 2011 | url-status=live }}</ref><ref name="Shane-2003">{{cite web|title=Cold War's Riskiest Moment |publisher=Baltimore Sun, 31 August 2003 (article reprinted as The Nuclear War That Almost Happened in 1983) |url=http://hnn.us/articles/1709.html#bombs9-5-03 |first=Scott |last=Shane |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20060819033034/http://hnn.us/articles/1709.html |archive-date=19 August 2006 }}</ref>
=== Able Archer 83 escalations: 2–11 November 1983 === {{main|Able Archer 83}}
Exercise Able Archer was an annual exercise by the U.S. European Command that practiced command and control procedures, with emphasis on the transition from solely conventional operations to chemical, nuclear, and conventional operations during a time of war.
During Able Archer 83, a NATO command post exercise simulating a period of conflict escalation that culminated in a DEFCON 1 nuclear strike, some members of the Soviet Politburo and armed forces treated the events as a ruse of war concealing a genuine first strike. In response, the military prepared for a coordinated counter-attack by readying nuclear forces and placing air units stationed in the Warsaw Pact states of East Germany and Poland under high alert. However, the state of Soviet preparation for retaliation ceased upon completion of the Able Archer exercises.<ref name="FischerBenj-2007">{{Cite web|url=https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/books-and-monographs/a-cold-war-conundrum/source.htm#HEADING1-12|publisher=Central Intelligence Agency|title=A Cold War Conundrum: The 1983 Soviet War Scare|author=Benjamin B. Fischer|access-date=13 January 2009|date=17 March 2007| archive-url= https://web.archive.org/web/20090114024850/https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/books-and-monographs/a-cold-war-conundrum/source.htm| archive-date= 14 January 2009 | url-status= dead}}</ref>
[[File:Reagan and Gordievsky.jpg|thumb|upright|U.S. president Ronald Reagan and Soviet double agent Oleg Gordievsky, who later told the West how close the Able Archer 83 exercise had brought the Soviets to ordering a First Strike.]]
Able Archer 83 began on 7 November 1983 and spanned Western Europe, centered on the Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe (SHAPE) Headquarters in Casteau, north of the city of Mons. Able Archer's exercises simulated a period of conflict escalation, culminating in a coordinated nuclear attack.<ref name="FischerBenj-2007" />
The realistic nature of the 1983 exercise, coupled with deteriorating relations between the United States and the Soviet Union and the anticipated arrival of strategic Pershing II nuclear missiles in Europe, led some members of the Soviet Politburo and military to believe that Able Archer 83 was a ruse of war, obscuring preparations for a genuine nuclear first strike.<ref name="FischerBenj-2007" /><ref>Andrew and Gordievsky, ''Comrade Kryucvcov's Instructions'', 85–7.</ref><ref name="FischerBeth">Beth Fischer, ''Reagan Reversal'', 123, 131.</ref><ref name="Pry Scare 37–9">Pry, ''War Scare'', 37–9.</ref> In response, the Soviets readied their nuclear forces and placed air units in East Germany and Poland on alert.<ref>Oberdorfer, ''A New Era'', 66.</ref><ref name="SNIE 84">''SNIE 11–10–84'' "Implications of Recent Soviet Military-Political Activities" Central Intelligence Agency, 18 May 1984.</ref>
This "1983 war scare" is considered by many historians to be the closest the world has come to nuclear war since the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962.<ref>{{cite news|author=John Lewis Gaddis |author-link=John Lewis Gaddis |author2=John Hashimoto |name-list-style=amp |title=COLD WAR Chat: Professor John Lewis Gaddis, Historian |url=http://www.cnn.com/SPECIALS/cold.war/guides/debate/chats/gaddis |access-date=29 December 2005 |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20050901185224/http://www.cnn.com/SPECIALS/cold.war/guides/debate/chats/gaddis/ |archive-date=1 September 2005 }}</ref> The threat of nuclear war ended with the conclusion of the exercise on 11 November.<ref>Andrew and Gordievsky, ''Comrade Kryucvcov's Instructions'', 87–8.</ref><ref name="Pry Scare 43–4">Pry, ''War Scare'', 43–4.</ref>
=== Norwegian rocket incident: 25 January 1995 === {{Main|Norwegian rocket incident}}
The Norwegian rocket incident was the first World War{{nbsp}}III close call to occur after the Cold War had ended. This incident occurred when Russia's Olenegorsk early warning station accidentally mistook the radar signature from a Black Brant XII research rocket (being jointly launched by Norwegian and US scientists from Andøya Rocket Range), as appearing to be the radar signature of the launch of a Trident SLBM missile. In response, Russian president Boris Yeltsin was summoned and the ''Cheget'' nuclear briefcase was activated for the first and only time. However, the high command was soon able to determine that the rocket was not entering Russian airspace, and promptly aborted plans for combat readiness and retaliation. It was retrospectively determined that, while the rocket scientists had informed thirty states including Russia about the test launch, the information had not reached Russian radar technicians.<ref>{{cite news|url=http://www.eucom.mil/article/23042/this-week-in-eucom-history-january-23-29-1995|title=The Norwegian Rocket Incident|publisher=United States European Command|date=23 January 2012|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120921003744/http://www.eucom.mil/article/23042/this-week-in-eucom-history-january-23-29-1995|archive-date=21 September 2012}}</ref><ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/inatl/longterm/coldwar/shatter031598a.htm|title=Cold-War Doctrines Refuse to Die|first=David|last=Hoffman|publisher=Washington Post Foreign Service|date=15 March 1998|access-date=18 September 2017|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120402042904/http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/inatl/longterm/coldwar/shatter031598a.htm|archive-date=2 April 2012|url-status=live}}</ref>
===Incident at Pristina airport: 12 June 1999=== {{main|Incident at Pristina airport|Mike Jackson (British Army officer)}}
On 12 June 1999, the day following the end of the Kosovo War, some 250 Russian peacekeepers occupied the Pristina International Airport ahead of the arrival of NATO troops and were to secure the arrival of reinforcements by air. American NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe General Wesley Clark ordered the use of force against the Russians.<ref name="Jackson-2007">{{cite book |title=Soldier |first=Mike |last=Jackson |publisher=Transworld Publishers |date=2007 |pages=[https://archive.org/details/soldierautobiogr00jack/page/255 255–275] |isbn=978-0-593-05907-4 |url-access=registration |url=https://archive.org/details/soldierautobiogr00jack/page/255 }}</ref> Mike Jackson, a British Army general who contacted the Russians during the incident, refused to enforce Clark's orders, famously telling him "I'm not going to start the Third World War for you".<ref name="BBC 2000">{{cite news |author=<!--Staff writer(s); no by-line.--> |title=Confrontation over Pristina airport |url=http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/671495.stm |work=BBC News |date=9 March 2000 |access-date=27 October 2010 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190519141123/http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/671495.stm |archive-date=19 May 2019 |url-status=live }}</ref> Captain James Blunt, the lead officer at the front of the NATO column in the direct armed stand-off against the Russians, received the "Destroy!" orders from Clark over the radio, but he followed Jackson's orders to encircle the airfield instead and later said in an interview that even without Jackson's intervention he would have refused to follow Clark's order.<ref name="Peck-2010">{{cite news |last=Peck |first=Tom |date=15 November 2010 |title=How James Blunt saved us from World War 3 |url=https://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/news/how-james-blunt-saved-us-from-world-war-3-2134203.html |newspaper=The Independent |location=London |access-date=2 March 2014 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20131214144653/http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/news/how-james-blunt-saved-us-from-world-war-3-2134203.html |archive-date=14 December 2013 |url-status=live }}</ref>
===War on terror=== {{Main|War on terror|List of modern conflicts in the Middle East}} {{Redirect|World War IV|the play-by-mail game|World War IV (play-by-mail game){{!}}''World War IV'' (play-by-mail game)|the 2003 film|The Fourth World War{{!}}''The Fourth World War''}}
[[File:WTC smoking on 9-11.jpeg|thumb|September 11 attacks]]
The "war on terror" that began with the September 11 attacks has been claimed by some to be World War{{nbsp}}III<ref>{{Cite web |last=Micallef |first=Joseph V. |date=24 January 2017 |title=Are We Already Fighting World War III? |url=http://www.military.com/daily-news/2017/01/24/are-we-already-fighting-world-war-iii.html |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170416051031/http://www.military.com/daily-news/2017/01/24/are-we-already-fighting-world-war-iii.html |archive-date=16 April 2017 |access-date=15 April 2017 |website=Military.com}}</ref> or sometimes World War{{nbsp}}IV<ref name="Podhoretz-2004"/><ref>{{cite news |author1=Charles Feldman |author2=Stan Wilson |name-list-style=amp |date=3 April 2003 |title=Ex-CIA director: U.S. faces 'World War IV' |url=http://www.cnn.com/2003/US/04/03/sprj.irq.woolsey.world.war/ |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240609132207/https://www.cnn.com/2003/US/04/03/sprj.irq.woolsey.world.war/ |archive-date=9 June 2024 |publisher=CNN |access-date=20 September 2024 |url-status=bot: unknown }}<br />{{cite news |last=Coman |first=Julian |date=13 April 2003 |title='We want them to be nervous' (That means you Ali, Bashar and Kim) |url=https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/1427428/We-want-them-to-be-nervous-That-means-you-Ali-Bashar-and-Kim.html |url-access=subscription |url-status=live |archive-url=https://ghostarchive.org/archive/20220110/https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/1427428/We-want-them-to-be-nervous-That-means-you-Ali-Bashar-and-Kim.html |archive-date=10 January 2022 |access-date=9 November 2009 |work=The Daily Telegraph |location=London}}{{cbignore}}<br />{{cite web |author=Elio A. Cohen |date=20 November 2001 |title=World War IV |url=http://www.opinionjournal.com/editorial/feature.html?id=95001493 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20040406043752/http://www.opinionjournal.com/editorial/feature.html?id=95001493 |archive-date=6 April 2004 |access-date=9 November 2009 |website=The Wall Street Journal }}</ref> (assuming the Cold War was World War{{nbsp}}III). Others have disparaged such claims as "distorting American history". While there is general agreement amongst historians regarding the definitions and extent of the first two world wars, namely due to the unmistakable global scale of aggression and self-destruction of these two wars, a few have claimed that a "World War" might now no longer require such worldwide and large-scale aggression and carnage. Still, such claims of a new "lower threshold of aggression", that might now be sufficient to qualify a war as a "World War" have not gained such widespread acceptance and support as the definitions of the first two world wars have received amongst historians.<ref>[http://www.latimes.com/opinion/la-op-beinart9dec09-story.html Is this really World War IV?] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170422135730/http://www.latimes.com/opinion/la-op-beinart9dec09-story.html |date=22 April 2017 }} Los Angeles Times. By Peter Beinart. 9 December 2007. Downloaded 21 April 2017.</ref> In 2004, commentator Norman Podhoretz argued that, if the Cold War was considered World War{{nbsp}}III, "World War{{nbsp}}IV" would be the global campaign against Islamofascism.<ref name="Podhoretz-2004">{{cite magazine |last1=Podhoretz |first1=Norman |author-link1=Norman Podhoretz |title=World War IV: How It Started, What It Means, and Why We Have to Win |url=https://www.commentarymagazine.com/articles/world-war-iv-how-it-started-what-it-means-and-why-we-have-to-win/ |magazine=Commentary |access-date=14 June 2019 |date=September 2004 |volume=118 |issue=2 |pages=17+ |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190520222750/https://www.commentarymagazine.com/articles/world-war-iv-how-it-started-what-it-means-and-why-we-have-to-win/ |archive-date=20 May 2019 |url-status=live}}</ref><ref>{{cite journal |last1=Buckley |first1=William F. Jr. |author-link1=William F. Buckley Jr. |title=World War IV? |journal=National Review |date=22 October 2007 |volume=59 |issue=19 |page=62 |url=https://www.nationalreview.com/2007/09/world-war-iv-william-f-buckley-jr/ |access-date=14 June 2019 |archive-date=6 August 2020 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200806022343/https://www.nationalreview.com/2007/09/world-war-iv-william-f-buckley-jr/ |url-status=live }} (published online 6 September 2007)</ref>
=== War on the Islamic State === {{Main|Islamic State|War against the Islamic State}} [[File:ISOF APC on the street of Mosul, Northern Iraq, Western Asia. 16 November, 2016.jpg | thumb | right | An Iraqi Special Operations Forces (ISOF) Humvee on the street of Mosul, Northern Iraq, 16 November 2016 during the Battle of Mosul]] On 1 February 2015, Iraqi Foreign Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari declared that the war against the Islamic State was effectively "World War{{nbsp}}III", due to the Islamic State's aims for a worldwide caliphate, and its success in spreading the conflict to multiple countries outside of the Levant region.<ref>[https://www.reuters.com/video/2015/02/01/fight-against-islamic-state-is-world-war?videoId=363066236 "Fight against Islamic State is World War 3 – Iraqi foreign minister"] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170620212733/http://www.reuters.com/video/2015/02/01/fight-against-islamic-state-is-world-war?videoId=363066236 |date=20 June 2017 }} Reuters, video</ref> In response to the November 2015 Paris attacks, King of Jordan Abdullah II stated "We are facing a Third World War against humanity".<ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/ISIS-Threat/Jordans-King-Abdullah-We-are-facing-a-Third-World-War-434408|title=Jordan's King Abdullah: We are facing a Third World War|date=17 November 2015|access-date=17 February 2016|newspaper=The Jerusalem Post|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160214091201/http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/ISIS-Threat/Jordans-King-Abdullah-We-are-facing-a-Third-World-War-434408|archive-date=14 February 2016|url-status=live}}</ref>
In his State of the Union Address on 12 January 2016, US president Barack Obama warned that news reports granting ISIL the supposed ability to foment a third World War might be excessive and irresponsible, stating that "as we focus on destroying ISIL, over-the-top claims that this is World War{{nbsp}}III just play into their hands. Masses of fighters on the back of pickup trucks and twisted souls plotting in apartments or garages pose an enormous danger to civilians and must be stopped. But they do not threaten our national existence."<ref>{{cite web|last1=Obama|first1=Barack|title=2016 State of the Union Address|url=https://medium.com/@WhiteHouse/president-obama-s-2016-state-of-the-union-address-7c06300f9726#.6rytyu7a2|website=The White House|publisher=government of the United States of America|access-date=9 February 2016|date=13 January 2016|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160209085124/https://medium.com/@WhiteHouse/president-obama-s-2016-state-of-the-union-address-7c06300f9726#.6rytyu7a2|archive-date=9 February 2016|url-status=live}}</ref>
Some have argued that a hypothetical World War III could be an event similar to a prophesied "Great War" in scripture, namely the Armageddon in Christianity<ref>{{Cite web |last=Akin |first=Jimmy |title=What Is the Battle of Armageddon? |url=https://www.catholic.com/magazine/online-edition/what-is-the-battle-of-armageddon |access-date=2026-03-04 |website=Catholic Answers |language=en}}</ref> and Malhama al Kubra in Islam.<ref>{{Cite web |date=2015-10-10 |title=Banu Asfar (Russians) and Armageddon (World War III) |url=https://naqshabandi.org/2015/10/10/banu-asfar-russians-and-armageddon-world-war-iii/ |access-date=2026-03-04 |website=Naqshabandi -Rabbani Way |language=en}}</ref>
===Shootdown of Sukhoi bomber: 24 November 2015=== {{main|2015 Russian Sukhoi Su-24 shootdown}}
On 24 November 2015, at the border between Turkey and Syria, the Turkish Air Force shot down a Russian Sukhoi attack aircraft. The Turks claimed that the aircraft violated Turkish airspace, a claim denied by the Russians; the plane was in the region as part of the Russian military intervention in the Syrian civil war, in which Turkey supported opposing forces. The incident was the first destruction of a Russian or Soviet Air Forces warplane by a NATO member state since the attack on the Sui-ho Dam during the Korean War in 1953.<ref name="Gibbons-Neff-2015">{{cite news|last1=Gibbons-Neff|first1=Thomas|title=The last time a Russian jet was shot down by a NATO jet was in 1952|url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint/wp/2015/11/24/the-last-time-a-russian-jet-was-shot-down-by-a-nato-jet-was-in-1952/|access-date=2 December 2015|newspaper=Washington Post|date=24 November 2015|archive-date=1 December 2015|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20151201221520/https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint/wp/2015/11/24/the-last-time-a-russian-jet-was-shot-down-by-a-nato-jet-was-in-1952/|url-status=live}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/11/24/turkey_downing_that_russian_fighter_jet_is_terrible_news_for_the_war_on.html|title=Turkey downing that Russian fighter jet is terrible news for the war on ISIS.|work=Slate Magazine|date=24 November 2015|access-date=25 November 2015|archive-date=24 November 2015|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20151124195329/http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/11/24/turkey_downing_that_russian_fighter_jet_is_terrible_news_for_the_war_on.html|url-status=live}}</ref> The incident led to numerous media and individuals commenting that it could have sparked and escalated into a world war.<ref>{{Cite web |title=Don't panic: Turkey shooting down a Russian warplane won't start World War 3 |url=https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/turkey/12013517/Dont-panic-Turkey-shooting-down-a-Russian-warplane-wont-start-World-War-3.html |access-date=18 July 2023 |website=www.telegraph.co.uk |date=24 November 2015 |archive-date=18 July 2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230718120546/https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/turkey/12013517/Dont-panic-Turkey-shooting-down-a-Russian-warplane-wont-start-World-War-3.html |url-status=live }}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |last=Bora |first=Birce |title='Which parts of Syria should be bombed?' |url=https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/11/26/which-parts-of-syria-should-be-bombed |access-date=18 July 2023 |website=www.aljazeera.com |language=en |archive-date=18 July 2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230718120546/https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/11/26/which-parts-of-syria-should-be-bombed |url-status=live }}</ref><ref>{{Cite news |last= |first= |date=26 November 2015 |title=Turkey risks sparking world war, says Iraq's Maliki |url=https://guardian.ng/news/turkey-risks-sparking-world-war-says-iraqs-maliki/ |location=Lagos, Nigeria|access-date=18 July 2023 |newspaper=The Guardian|language=en-US |archive-date=18 July 2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230718120546/https://guardian.ng/news/turkey-risks-sparking-world-war-says-iraqs-maliki/ |url-status=live }}</ref>
== Current potential flashpoints ==<!--NOTE: the sources MUST mention WW3 or the content does not belong here, per WP:NOR-->
=== China–Taiwan tensions=== {{main|Cross-strait relations|Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis}}
After the end of the Chinese Civil War, the communist People's Republic of China (PRC) claimed the mainland, while the Republic of China (ROC) government retreated to Taiwan. The PRC claims it is the only lawful government of China and that Taiwan is part of its territory.<ref name="PRCNorway">{{cite web |url=https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/ce/ceno/eng/ztxw/twwt/t110655.htm |title=White Paper—The One-China Principle and the Taiwan Issue |author=<!--Not stated--> |date=21 February 2000 |website=Embassy of the PRC in the Kingdom of Norway |publisher=The Taiwan Affairs Office and The Information Office of the State Council |access-date=27 November 2021 |quote=As we have already said, Taiwan is an inalienable part of Chinese territory and, after replacing the government of the Republic of China in 1949, the government of the PRC has become the sole legal government of China, enjoying and exercising sovereignty over the whole of China, including Taiwan. |archive-date=28 November 2021 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20211128012529/https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/ce/ceno/eng/ztxw/twwt/t110655.htm |url-status=live }}</ref>
Diplomacy was normalized in the 1990s, but the PRC's persistent opposition to Taiwan's ''de facto'' autonomy has stoked fears of a PRC invasion of Taiwan, to achieve its vision of Chinese unification. In the 2020s, the PRC has increasingly threatened a military intervention, and has built up forces and held provocative military exercises around Taiwan. In response, Taiwan has sought to enhance its defenses and has sought international help to resist an invasion.<ref name="al1">{{cite web |url=https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/8/10/china-reaffirms-threat-of-military-force-to-take-taiwan |title=China reaffirms threat of military force to take Taiwan |last= |first= |date=10 August 2022 |website=Aljazeera |publisher= |access-date=19 August 2023 |quote= |archive-date=19 August 2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230819035424/https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/8/10/china-reaffirms-threat-of-military-force-to-take-taiwan |url-status=live }}</ref><ref name="france1">{{cite web |url=https://www.france24.com/en/asia-pacific/20220807-china-s-military-threat-to-taiwan-is-much-more-credible-than-it-was-20-years-ago |title=China's 'military threat' to Taiwan 'is much more credible than it was 20 years ago' |last= |first= |date=7 August 2022 |website=France24 |publisher= |access-date=19 August 2023 |quote= |archive-date=19 August 2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230819181345/https://www.france24.com/en/asia-pacific/20220807-china-s-military-threat-to-taiwan-is-much-more-credible-than-it-was-20-years-ago |url-status=live }}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |date=2025-03-13 |title=Taiwan's leader says tougher measures needed to counter stepped-up Chinese infiltration and spying |url=https://apnews.com/article/taiwan-china-spying-president-lai-defenses-31be72adb44f826d265cdc17a6559cbd |access-date=2025-03-20 |website=AP News |language=en |archive-date=28 December 2025 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20251228023852/https://apnews.com/article/taiwan-china-spying-president-lai-defenses-31be72adb44f826d265cdc17a6559cbd |url-status=live }}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |date=2025-03-16 |title=Taiwan marathon organizers apologize after giving out prizes in the shape of a Chinese machine gun |url=https://apnews.com/article/taiwan-china-trophy-machine-gun-ab1fb784b9c450bc13f93d4e87b8415c |access-date=2025-03-20 |website=AP News |language=en}}</ref> US officials have warned that the PRC could be ready for military action against Taiwan by 2027. Beijing's large-scale exercises, including a simulated siege of the island, are seen as indicators of this readiness.<ref>{{Cite web |title=How China and Taiwan are Preparing for War |url=https://www.newsweek.com/how-china-taiwan-preparing-for-war-10969873 |access-date=2025-11-03 |website=Newsweek |language=en |archive-date=9 January 2026 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20260109202810/https://www.newsweek.com/how-china-taiwan-preparing-for-war-10969873 |url-status=live }}</ref>
=== Russo-Ukrainian War (2022–present) === {{main|Russo-Ukrainian war (2022–present)|Nuclear risk during the Russo-Ukrainian war (2022–present)}}
[[File:Borodianka after Russian bombing, 2022-03-02 (11).jpg|thumb|Buildings destroyed by the Russian bombing of Borodianka, March 2022]]
On 24 February 2022, Russia's president Vladimir Putin ordered a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, marking a major escalation of the Russo-Ukrainian war, which began in 2014. The Russian invasion started the largest war in Europe since World War II.<ref>{{cite news |last1=Karmanau |first1=Yuras |last2=Heintz |first2=Jim |last3=Isachenkov |first3=Vladimir |last4=Litvinova |first4=Dasha |others=Photograph by Evgeniy Maloletka (AP Photo) |date=24 February 2022 |title=Russia presses invasion to outskirts of Ukrainian capital |work=ABC News |publisher=American Broadcasting Company |agency=Associated Press |location=Kyiv |url=https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/russia-attacks-ukraine-defiant-putin-warns-us-nato-83078619 |url-status=live |access-date=26 February 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220225182137/https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/russia-attacks-ukraine-defiant-putin-warns-us-nato-83078619 |archive-date=25 February 2022 |quote=[a]mounts to the largest ground war in Europe since World War II.}}</ref> Various experts, analysts, and others have described the invasion as heightening the risk of a third world war,<ref>{{cite news |last1=Elliott |first1=Larry |title=Ukraine invasion maybe start of 'third world war', says George Soros |url=https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/may/24/ukraine-invasion-may-be-start-of-third-world-war-says-george-soros |access-date=25 May 2022 |work=The Guardian |date=24 May 2022 |language=en |archive-date=5 July 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220705182833/https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/may/24/ukraine-invasion-may-be-start-of-third-world-war-says-george-soros |url-status=live }}</ref><ref>{{cite news|url=https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-invasion-has-world-war-three-already-started-some-security-experts-believe-existential-global-conflict-has-begun-12559039|title=Ukraine invasion: Has World War Three already started? Some security experts believe existential global conflict has begun|publisher=Sky News|first1=Deborah|last1=Haynes|date=6 March 2022|access-date=6 March 2022|archive-date=6 March 2022|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220306124304/https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-invasion-has-world-war-three-already-started-some-security-experts-believe-existential-global-conflict-has-begun-12559039|url-status=live}}</ref><ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.politico.eu/article/fight-ukraine-russia-world-war-risk-real/|title=The fighting is in Ukraine, but risk of World War III is real|publisher=Politico|first1=David M.|last1=Herszenhorn|date=4 March 2022|access-date=4 March 2022|url-status=live|archive-date=4 March 2022|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220304213411/https://www.politico.eu/article/fight-ukraine-russia-world-war-risk-real/}}</ref><ref>{{Cite news |author1=Skomaskanda, Honderich |author2=Sumi, Holly |date=18 April 2024 |title=Ukraine warns of WW3 ahead of long-stalled Congress aid vote |url=https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68840261 |access-date=19 April 2024 |work=BBC News}}</ref> while others disagree.<ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.thedailybeast.com/ukraine-isnt-world-war-iii-its-not-even-close|title=Ukraine Isn't World War III. It's Not Even Close.|publisher=The Daily Beast|first1=Ryan|last1=Faith|date=11 March 2022|access-date=12 March 2022|url-status=live|archive-date=12 March 2022|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220312165320/https://www.thedailybeast.com/ukraine-isnt-world-war-iii-its-not-even-close}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |last=Simhony |first=Limor |title=NATO Intervention in Ukraine Won't Spark World War III |url=https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/04/01/nato-intervention-in-ukraine-wont-spark-world-war-iii/ |access-date=7 October 2022 |website=Foreign Policy |language=en-US |archive-date=7 October 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20221007025659/https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/04/01/nato-intervention-in-ukraine-wont-spark-world-war-iii/ |url-status=live }}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |last=Miller |first=Paul |title=Ukraine Is Not World War III |url=https://thedispatch.com/p/ukraine-is-not-world-war-iii |access-date=7 October 2022 |website=The Dispatch |date=8 March 2022 |archive-date=7 October 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20221007025701/https://thedispatch.com/p/ukraine-is-not-world-war-iii |url-status=live }}</ref> The NATO military alliance has supported Ukraine's defense. Several incidents have risked a direct conflict between Russia and NATO, such as Russian breaches of NATO airspace and a missile explosion in Poland.<ref>{{Cite news |date=15 November 2022 |title=Explosion kills two in Poland near Ukraine border, with US claiming Russia may not be responsible |language=en-AU |work=ABC News |url=https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-16/explosion-kills-two-in-poland-near-ukraine-border/101658264 |access-date=15 November 2022 |archive-date=15 November 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20221115195021/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-16/explosion-kills-two-in-poland-near-ukraine-border/101658264 |url-status=live }}</ref><ref>{{Cite news |date=15 November 2022 |title=Wybuch w miejscowości Przewodów. Nie żyją dwie osoby |trans-title=Explosion in Przewodów. Two people are dead |language=pl-PL |work=Radio Lublin |url=https://radio.lublin.pl/2022/11/wybuch-ciagnika-w-miejscowosci-przewodow-nie-zyja-dwie-osoby/ |access-date=15 November 2022 |archive-date=15 November 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20221115233613/https://radio.lublin.pl/2022/11/wybuch-ciagnika-w-miejscowosci-przewodow-nie-zyja-dwie-osoby/ |url-status=live }}</ref><ref name="Joffre-2022">{{Cite news |date=15 November 2022 |title=Polish PM convenes 'urgent' meeting of defense committee |newspaper=The Jerusalem Post |url=https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-722483 |access-date=15 November 2022 |archive-date=15 November 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20221115184400/https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-722483 |url-status=live }}</ref>
Because of the invasion, at least fifty countries have provided military aid to Ukraine, including all member states of NATO.<ref>{{cite news |title=Russia warns of World War III ahead of Western summit on arms to Ukraine |url=https://www.scmp.com/news/world/russia-central-asia/article/3175501/ukraine-invasion-russias-foreign-minister-sergey |work=South China Morning Post |date=26 April 2022 |access-date=5 May 2022 |archive-date=5 May 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220505103450/https://www.scmp.com/news/world/russia-central-asia/article/3175501/ukraine-invasion-russias-foreign-minister-sergey |url-status=live }}</ref><ref>{{cite news |title=Biden requests $33 billion for Ukraine fight as Congress passes 'lend-lease' arms authorization |url=https://theweek.com/nancy-pelosi/1013137/nancy-pelosi-meets-with-zelensky-in-kyiv |work=The Week |date=29 April 2022 |access-date=5 May 2022 |archive-date=5 May 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220505103451/https://theweek.com/nancy-pelosi/1013137/nancy-pelosi-meets-with-zelensky-in-kyiv |url-status=live }}</ref> The Russian government has threatened retaliation against these countries, and said it meant NATO was waging a "proxy war" against Russia.<ref>{{cite news |title=Russia accuses Nato of 'proxy war' in Ukraine as US hosts crucial defence summit |url=https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/26/russia-accuses-nato-of-proxy-war-in-ukraine-as-us-hosts-crucial-defence-summit |work=The Guardian |date=26 April 2022 |archive-date=3 May 2022 |access-date=19 November 2024 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220503185651/https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/26/russia-accuses-nato-of-proxy-war-in-ukraine-as-us-hosts-crucial-defence-summit |url-status=live }}</ref> Senior Russian officials—including president Putin, foreign minister Sergey Lavrov, and Dmitry Medvedev—have made statements widely seen as nuclear blackmail. They have implied that Russia may use nuclear weapons if certain "red lines" are crossed, such as countries helping Ukraine to strike back at mainland Russia.<ref>{{cite news |title=Putin's threat rekindles Cold War fears of nuclear war |publisher=PBS |url=https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/putin-waves-nuclear-sword-in-confrontation-with-the-west |url-status=live |access-date=27 February 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220227183156/https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/putin-waves-nuclear-sword-in-confrontation-with-the-west |archive-date=27 February 2022 |quote=As for military affairs, even after the dissolution of the USSR and losing a considerable part of its capabilities, today's Russia remains one of the most powerful nuclear states. ... Moreover, it has a certain advantage in several cutting-edge weapons. In this context, there should be no doubt for anyone that any potential aggressor will face defeat and ominous consequences should it directly attack our country.}}</ref><ref>{{cite news |title=Defiant Putin goes to war in Ukraine with a warning for U.S., NATO |publisher=NBC News |url=https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/russia-ukraine-invasion-putin-war-warning-us-nato-rcna17497 |url-status=live |access-date=27 February 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220227183152/https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/russia-ukraine-invasion-putin-war-warning-us-nato-rcna17497 |archive-date=27 February 2022}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |last=Sauer |first=Pjotr |date=21 September 2022 |title=Putin announces partial mobilisation and threatens nuclear retaliation in escalation of Ukraine war |url=https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/21/putin-announces-partial-mobilisation-in-russia-in-escalation-of-ukraine-war |access-date=21 September 2022 |website=The Guardian |language=en |archive-date=14 January 2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230114202406/https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/21/putin-announces-partial-mobilisation-in-russia-in-escalation-of-ukraine-war |url-status=live }}</ref> Then-US President Joe Biden and then-NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stressed the need to prevent the conflict escalating into a third world war, while also affirming that NATO members will defend each other.<ref>{{cite web |date=28 February 2022 |title=Biden says Americans should not worry about nuclear war after Russian actions |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/27/us/politics/putin-nuclear-alert-biden-deescalation.html |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220228011550/https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/27/us/politics/putin-nuclear-alert-biden-deescalation.html |archive-date=28 February 2022 |access-date=28 February 2022 |website=Reuters |language=en}}</ref><ref>{{cite web |last1=Samuels |first1=Brett |date=11 March 2022 |title=Biden: Direct conflict between NATO and Russia would be 'World War III' |url=https://thehill.com/policy/international/597842-biden-direct-conflict-between-nato-and-russia-would-be-world-war-iii |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220325032254/https://thehill.com/policy/international/597842-biden-direct-conflict-between-nato-and-russia-would-be-world-war-iii |archive-date=25 March 2022 |access-date=11 March 2022 |website=The Hill}}</ref><ref>{{cite news |last=Khaled |first=Fatma |date=13 March 2022 |title=Russia Hitting NATO Even Accidentally Will Spur 'Full' Response: Sullivan |work=Newsweek |url=https://www.newsweek.com/russia-hitting-nato-even-accidentally-will-spur-full-response-sullivan-1687559 |access-date=5 May 2022 |archive-date=12 September 2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230912152512/https://www.newsweek.com/russia-hitting-nato-even-accidentally-will-spur-full-response-sullivan-1687559 |url-status=live }}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |date=21 September 2022 |title=Biden denounces Putin's 'overt' nuclear threats, urges UN allies to reject Russia's invasion of Ukraine |url=https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/21/biden-denounces-putins-overt-nuclear-threats-urges-un-allies-to-reject-russias-invasion-of-ukraine.html |access-date=21 September 2022 |website=CNBC |language=en |archive-date=21 September 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220921194052/https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/21/biden-denounces-putins-overt-nuclear-threats-urges-un-allies-to-reject-russias-invasion-of-ukraine.html |url-status=live }}</ref> The US warned Russia's government that the country would suffer "catastrophic" consequences if it used nuclear weapons against Ukraine.<ref>{{cite news |title=U.S. warns Russia of 'catastrophic' consequences if it uses nuclear weapons |url=https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/russia-catastrophic-consequences-nuclear-weapons-ukraine-us-warns-rcna49365 |work=NBC News |date=26 September 2022 |archive-date=12 December 2022 |access-date=19 November 2024 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20221212035924/https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/russia-catastrophic-consequences-nuclear-weapons-ukraine-us-warns-rcna49365 |url-status=live }}</ref><ref>Natasha Turoc, "Biden warns of 'consequential' response from U.S. if Putin uses nuclear weapons". CNBC, 19 September 2022. [https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/19/russia-ukraine-live-updates.html]. {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220926223800/https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/19/russia-ukraine-live-updates.html |date=26 September 2022 }}.</ref>
Russian threats have been described as a way to intimidate Western countries, to deter them from helping Ukraine.<ref>{{cite web |last1=Giles |first1=Keir |title=Russian nuclear intimidation |url=https://www.chathamhouse.org/2023/03/russian-nuclear-intimidation/introduction-and-context |website=Chatham House |date=3 October 2023 |access-date=19 November 2024 |archive-date=20 January 2025 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250120025906/https://www.chathamhouse.org/2023/03/russian-nuclear-intimidation/introduction-and-context |url-status=live }}</ref> Fearing escalation, NATO countries held back from sending advanced weapons to Ukraine, and forbade Ukraine to fire NATO weapons into Russia.<ref>{{cite web |date=6 September 2023 |title=Fake of the week: Russia is waging war against NATO in Ukraine |url=https://www.euractiv.pl/section/demokracja/news/fake-of-the-week-russia-is-waging-war-against-nato-in-ukraine/ |website=Euractiv |access-date=18 November 2024 |archive-date=6 September 2024 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240906143232/https://www.euractiv.pl/section/demokracja/news/fake-of-the-week-russia-is-waging-war-against-nato-in-ukraine/ |url-status=live }}</ref> Since July 2024, they have allowed Ukraine to use NATO weapons to strike military targets in Russia, but only near the border in self-defense.<ref>{{cite news |title=The West finally allowed Ukraine to strike back at Russia — and it seems to be working |url=https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/14/europe/western-weapons-ukraine-russia-intl-cmd/ |work=CNN |date=15 July 2024 |archive-date=13 November 2024 |access-date=18 November 2024 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20241113025858/https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/14/europe/western-weapons-ukraine-russia-intl-cmd/ |url-status=live }}</ref> Russia's government has not followed through on its threats against NATO and has not used nuclear weapons, despite most of its "red lines" being crossed.<ref>{{cite news |last1=Dickinson |first1=Peter |title=Putin is becoming entangled in his own discredited red lines |url=https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/putin-is-becoming-entangled-in-his-own-discredited-red-lines/ |work=Atlantic Council |date=17 September 2024 |archive-date=5 November 2024 |access-date=19 November 2024 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20241105191628/https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/putin-is-becoming-entangled-in-his-own-discredited-red-lines/ |url-status=live }}</ref>
Iran and North Korea have provided weapons and ammunition to Russia during the invasion, including ballistic missiles.<ref>{{cite news |title=Exclusive: Iran sends Russia hundreds of ballistic missiles |url=https://www.reuters.com/world/iran-sends-russia-hundreds-ballistic-missiles-sources-say-2024-02-21/ |work=Reuters |date=21 February 2024 |archive-date=15 December 2024 |access-date=19 November 2024 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20241215083751/https://www.reuters.com/world/iran-sends-russia-hundreds-ballistic-missiles-sources-say-2024-02-21/ |url-status=live }}</ref> In 2024, Russia and North Korea signed a defense pact, and Russia further escalated the conflict by deploying 10,000 North Korean troops on its border to fight a Ukrainian incursion.<ref>{{cite news |title=North Korea ratifies mutual defence treaty with Russia |url=https://www.reuters.com/world/north-korea-ratifies-mutual-defence-treaty-with-russia-2024-11-11/ |work=Reuters |date=11 November 2024}}</ref> In November 2024, Putin said that the war "has acquired elements of a global character", adding that Russia was entitled to strike military facilities of those countries that allow their weapons to be used against it.<ref>[https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-says-russia-fired-hypersonic-ballistic-missile-ukraine-warning-west-2024-11-21/ Putin says Ukraine war is going global] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20241206040712/https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-says-russia-fired-hypersonic-ballistic-missile-ukraine-warning-west-2024-11-21/ |date=6 December 2024 }}. Reuters</ref>
In February 2025, during a controversial meeting between U.S. president Donald Trump and Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy, an argument erupted, and Trump accused Zelenskyy of "gambling with World War III".<ref>{{Cite web |date=1 March 2025 |title=Donald Trump accuses Zelensky of 'gambling with World War Three' |url=https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c9dejydynngo |access-date=20 March 2025 |website=www.bbc.com |language=en-GB |archive-date=5 March 2025 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250305202011/https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c9dejydynngo |url-status=live }}</ref> French president Emmanuel Macron responded "If anyone is gambling with World War III, his name is Vladimir Putin".<ref>{{cite news |title=Most European leaders back Zelenskyy as he joins crisis talks in London |url=https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-zelenskyy-london-bf158d8f9e10a7c049ea90f8fd917ab6 |work=Associated Press |date=1 March 2025}}</ref>
On 9 September 2025, about twenty Russian military drones entered Polish airspace. Some of them were shot down by NATO fighter jets and others crashed.<ref name="auto">{{Cite web |date=2025-09-10 |title=Poland calls NATO meeting after downing Russian drones |url=https://www.dw.com/en/poland-calls-nato-meeting-after-downing-russian-drones/live-73941525 |access-date=2025-09-10 |website=DW.com |archive-date=10 September 2025 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250910100530/https://www.dw.com/en/poland-calls-nato-meeting-after-downing-russian-drones/live-73941525 |url-status=live }}</ref> Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk stated that a large military conflict was closer than at any time since WWII.<ref>{{Cite news |last1=Yang |first1=Maya |last2=Krupa |first2=Jakub |last3=Sedghi |first3=Amy |last4=Livingstone |first4=Helen |date=2025-09-10 |title=Poland dismisses Russia's claim drone incursion was unintentional as Ukraine calls for joint European air defence system – as it happened |url=https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2025/sep/10/poland-pm-condemns-repeated-violation-of-airspace-amid-russian-attack-on-ukraine-follow-live |access-date=2025-12-11 |work=The Guardian |language=en-GB |issn=0261-3077}}</ref> Ahead of the invasion's fourth anniversary, on 23 February 2026, Zelenskyy said he believed Putin had "already started" World War III.<ref>{{cite news|last=Bowen|first=Jeremy|url=https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvgj9p15y87o|title=Zelensky tells BBC Putin has started WW3 and must be stopped|publisher=BBC|date=23 February 2026|access-date=23 February 2026|archive-date=23 February 2026|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20260223005011/https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvgj9p15y87o|url-status=live}}</ref>
=== 2026 Iran war ===<!--NOTE: the sources MUST mention WW3 or the content does not belong here, per WP:NOR--> {{main|2026 Iran war}}{{See also|Middle Eastern crisis (2023–present)}}[[File:Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group Conducts Photo Exercise.jpg|thumb|Carrier Strike Group 3 sails in formation in the Arabian Sea during the 2026 United States military build-up in the Middle East, 6 February 2026]] On 28 February 2026, the U.S. and Israel jointly carried out strikes on Iran with the stated goal of regime change. Numerous Iranian officials were killed, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, leading Iran to launch retaliatory strikes against both Israel, US military bases and US allies in the region.<ref>{{Cite web |date=2026-02-28 |title=Iran latest: US and Israel carry out joint attack on Iran as Tehran launches retaliatory strikes |url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cn5ge95q6y7t |access-date=2026-02-28 |website=BBC News |language=en-GB |archive-date=28 February 2026 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20260228081423/https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cn5ge95q6y7t |url-status=live }}</ref> This sparked a major regional conflict and raised fears of a third world war.<ref>{{Cite news |date=2026-02-28 |title=World War 3 started? Netizens debate over US-Israel attack on Iran, ask: 'Should we stop office work?' |url=https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/new-updates/world-war-3-buzz-should-we-stop-doing-office-work-netizens-ask-after-us-israel-attack-on-iran-and-middle-east-escalation/articleshow/128881986.cms |access-date=2026-03-04 |work=The Times of India |issn=0013-0389 |archive-date=2 March 2026 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20260302075330/https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/new-updates/world-war-3-buzz-should-we-stop-doing-office-work-netizens-ask-after-us-israel-attack-on-iran-and-middle-east-escalation/articleshow/128881986.cms |url-status=live }}</ref>
After an Iranian missile was shot down heading towards NATO-member Turkey, with the debris landing in Dörtyol,<ref name="TheHill2026">{{cite news |last=Mitchell|first=Ellen|date=2026-03-04|title=NATO shoots down Iranian missile headed toward Turkey's airspace|url=https://thehill.com/policy/defense/5766972-iranian-missile-shot-down-turkey/|access-date=2026-03-08|work=The Hill|language=en-US}}</ref> concerns were raised that the alliance would be drawn into the war.<ref name="reuters1">{{cite news |title=Turkey says NATO defences destroyed missile fired from Iran over Mediterranean |url=https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkey-says-nato-defences-destroyed-missile-fired-iran-over-mediterranean-2026-03-04/ |work=Reuters |date=4 March 2026 |access-date=6 March 2026 }}</ref> Military analysts told ''The Wall Street Journal'' that Iran's strategy was aimed at "internationaliz[ing] the conflict, imposing a higher cost on U.S. allies and disrupting global markets".<ref>{{cite web |last1=Malsin |first1=Jared |last2=Holliday |first2=Shelby |title=Broadening Mideast Conflict Risks Pulling In U.S.’s NATO Allies |url=https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/broadening-mideast-conflict-risks-pulling-in-u-s-s-nato-allies-a514b7a5 |website=The Wall Street Journal |access-date=4 March 2026 |date=4 March 2026 |archive-date=5 March 2026 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20260305020644/https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/broadening-mideast-conflict-risks-pulling-in-u-s-s-nato-allies-a514b7a5 |url-status=live }}</ref>
In an opinion piece for NJ.com, political strategists Julie Roginsky and Michael DuHaime stated that the Iran war was the beginning of World War III.<ref>{{Cite web |last=Roginsky |first=Julie |last2=DuHaime |first2=Mike |date=March 7, 2026 |title=We’re already in World War III...and Trump doesn’t care about our lives {{!}} Friendly Fire |url=https://www.nj.com/opinion/2026/03/were-already-in-world-war-iiiand-trump-doesnt-care-about-our-lives-friendly-fire.html |access-date=March 8, 2026 |website=NJ.com}}</ref> The conflict was also described in March 2026 as "the precipice of World War III" by former US Secretary of Labor Robert Reich,<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.eurasiareview.com/05032026-robert-reich-on-the-precipice-of-world-war-iii-oped/|title=Robert Reich: On The Precipice Of World War III? – OpEd|website=Eurasia Review via Substack|first=Robert|last=Reich|date=5 March 2026}}</ref> and "the final catalyst for a third world war" by former British Army officer Richard Shirreff.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://theweek.com/92967/are-we-heading-towards-world-war-3|title=Are we heading for World War Three?|work=The Week|date=March 2026|access-date=7 April 2026}}</ref>
On 29 March, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, speaker of the Parliament of Iran, referred to the conflict as a "a major world war".<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2026/mar/29/middle-east-crisis-live-explosions-tehran-yemen-houthis-iran-war-updates-trump-us-israel-strikes-lebanon?page=with%3Ablock-69c8e8988f084d6bedab6037#block-69c8e8988f084d6bedab6037|title=US secretly plotting ground attack despite message of diplomacy, Iran's parliament speaker says|date=29 March 2026|access-date=29 March 2026|website=The Guardian}}</ref>
==Hypothetical scenarios==<!--NOTE: the sources MUST mention WW3 or the content does not belong here, per WP:NOR--> In 1949, after the unleashing of nuclear weaponry at the end of World War II, physicist Albert Einstein suggested that any outcome of a possible World War III would be so catastrophic upon human civilization so as to revert mankind to the Stone Age. When asked by journalist Alfred Werner what types of weapons Einstein believed World War{{nbsp}}III might be fought with, Einstein warned, "I know not with what weapons World War{{nbsp}}III will be fought, but World War{{nbsp}}IV will be fought with sticks and stones."<ref name="einstein">''The New Quotable Einstein''. Alice Calaprice (2005), p. 173.</ref><ref>{{Cite web |url=https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna7406337 |title=The culture of Einstein |last=Johnson |first=M. Alex |date=18 April 2005 |website=MSNBC |language=en |access-date=27 January 2018 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180208205219/http://www.nbcnews.com/id/7406337#.WmyV55OdU3g |archive-date=8 February 2018 |url-status=live }}</ref>
As for the extermination of the human race as a consequence of atomic war, Leslie A. White challenged Einstein, "this too may be admitted as possibility, and all we can say is that if it is to come, it will come. Extravagant expressions of horror will not alter the course of events."<ref>{{Cite book |last= |first= |url=https://books.google.com/books?id=MgwAAAAAMBAJ&q=condon |title=Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists |date=15 March 1946 |publisher=Educational Foundation for Nuclear Science, Inc. |language=en |access-date=28 March 2023 |archive-date=4 June 2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230604144015/https://books.google.com/books?id=MgwAAAAAMBAJ&q=condon |url-status=live }}</ref> Crane Brinton also doubted the psychological pacification of Einstein: "Teachers, preachers, educators, even politicians are telling the growing generation that there must be no war and, therefore, there will be no war. I have doubts as to whether this is wise teaching..." In spite of the atomic bomb, there will be another general war and humanity will survive it, according to Brinton.<ref>Brinton, Crane, (1948). ''From Many to One: The Process of Political Integration, the Problem of World Government'', (Westport: Greenwood Press), p 4.</ref> James Burnham of the Office of Strategic Services (the precursor to the CIA), also believed in survival: The uniqueness of the atomic weapons is commonly found in that they can totally annihilate human life, including through climatic and geological chain reaction, but such is not the case. The great principles of military strategy stand unaltered. An atomic war will look different from older wars but it will be decided by the same combination of resources, morale and strategy.<ref>Burnham, James, (1947). ''Struggle for the World'', (New York: The John Day Company), pp 26, 28-29.</ref>
A 1998 ''New England Journal of Medicine'' overview found that "Although many people believe that the threat of a nuclear attack largely disappeared with the end of the Cold War, there is considerable evidence to the contrary".<ref name="Forrow-1998"/> In particular, the United States–Russia mutual detargeting agreement in 1994 was largely symbolic and did not change the amount of time required to launch an attack. The most likely "accidental-attack" scenario was believed to be a retaliatory launch due to a false warning, similar to the 1983 incident.<ref name="Forrow-1998">{{cite journal |last1=Forrow |first1=Lachlan |last2=Blair |first2=Bruce G. |last3=Helfand |first3=Ira |last4=Lewis |first4=George |last5=Postol |first5=Theodore |last6=Sidel |first6=Victor |last7=Levy |first7=Barry S. |last8=Abrams |first8=Herbert |last9=Cassel |first9=Christine |title=Accidental Nuclear War — A Post–Cold War Assessment |journal=New England Journal of Medicine |date=30 April 1998 |volume=338 |issue=18 |pages=1326–1332 |doi=10.1056/NEJM199804303381824|pmid=9562589 |doi-access=free |issn=0028-4793 }}</ref> Historically, World War I happened through an escalating crisis; World War II happened through deliberate action. Hypothesized flashpoints in the 2010s and the 2020s include the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Estonia-Russia tensions (see Narva scenario), Chinese expansion into adjacent islands and seas,<ref name="Singer-2015">{{cite news |title=This Is What World War III Will Look Like |url=https://time.com/3934583/world-war-3/ |date=2015 |access-date=22 March 2020 |magazine=Time |language=en |archive-date=29 March 2020 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200329011526/https://time.com/3934583/world-war-3/ |url-status=live }}</ref> Sino-Indian border dispute, Chinese threats of military operation against Taiwan, Indo-Pakistani border conflicts, and foreign involvement in the Syrian civil war. Other hypothesized risks are that a war involving or between Saudi Arabia and Iran, Israel and Iran, United States and Iran, Poland and Belarus, South Korea and North Korea, or Taiwan and China could escalate via alliances or intervention into a war between "great powers" such as the United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Russia, China, India, Japan or an all out war between military alliances NATO and CSTO, or even the possibility of a "rogue commander" under any nuclear power might launch an unauthorized strike that escalates into a full-blown war.<ref>{{cite book |last1=Rosenbaum |first1=Ron |author-link=Ron Rosenbaum| title=How the end begins: the road to a nuclear World War III |date=2011 |publisher=Simon & Schuster |isbn=978-1-4391-9007-4 |edition=1st Simon & Schuster hardcover}}</ref>
According to a peer-reviewed study published in the journal ''Nature Food'' in August 2022, a full-scale nuclear war between the United States and Russia, releasing over 150 Tg of stratospheric soot, could indirectly kill more than five billion people by starvation during a nuclear winter. More than two billion people could die of starvation from a smaller-scale (5–47 Tg) nuclear war between India and Pakistan.<ref>{{cite journal |title=Global food insecurity and famine from the reduced crop, marine fishery and livestock production due to climate disruption from nuclear war soot injection |journal=Nature Food |date=15 August 2022 |doi=10.1038/s43016-022-00573-0 |last1=Xia |first1=Lili |last2=Robock |first2=Alan |last3=Scherrer |first3=Kim |last4=Harrison |first4=Cheryl S. |last5=Bodirsky |first5=Benjamin Leon |last6=Weindl |first6=Isabelle |last7=Jägermeyr |first7=Jonas |last8=Bardeen |first8=Charles G. |last9=Toon |first9=Owen B. |last10=Heneghan |first10=Ryan |volume=3 |issue=8 |pages=586–596 |pmid=37118594 |s2cid=251601831 |doi-access=free |bibcode=2022NatFd...3..586X |hdl=11250/3039288 |hdl-access=free }}</ref><ref>{{cite news |title=World Nuclear war between the U.S. and Russia would kill more than 5 billion people – just from starvation, study finds |url=https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nuclear-war-5-billion-people-starvation-deaths-study/ |work=CBS News |date=16 August 2022 |access-date=7 November 2022 |archive-date=26 October 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20221026190805/https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nuclear-war-5-billion-people-starvation-deaths-study/ |url-status=live }}</ref> In the event of a nuclear war between Russia and the United States, 99% of the population in the belligerent countries, as well as Europe and China, would die.<ref name="Tegmark-2023">{{cite magazine |last=Tegmark |first=Max |date=29 June 2023 |title=Here's How Bad a Nuclear War Would Actually Be |magazine=Time |url=https://time.com/6290977/nuclear-war-impact-essay/ |access-date=10 August 2023 |archive-date=22 January 2024 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240122053620/https://time.com/6290977/nuclear-war-impact-essay/ |url-status=live }}</ref>
Some scenarios involve risks due to upcoming changes from the known status quo. In the 1980s the Strategic Defense Initiative made an effort at nullifying the USSR's nuclear arsenal; some analysts believe the initiative was "destabilizing".<ref>{{cite news |last1=Rosen |first1=Armin |title=A Newly Declassified CIA Paper Details A Tense Subplot In The Cold War Arms Race |url=https://www.businessinsider.com/why-missile-defense-terrified-the-soviets-2014-10 |access-date=22 March 2020 |work=Business Insider |date=2014 |archive-date=22 March 2020 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200322204517/https://www.businessinsider.com/why-missile-defense-terrified-the-soviets-2014-10 |url-status=live }}</ref><ref>{{cite news |last1=Lepore |first1=Jill |title=The Atomic Origins of Climate Science |url=https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/01/30/the-atomic-origins-of-climate-science |access-date=22 March 2020 |magazine=The New Yorker |date=2017 |language=en |archive-date=15 July 2020 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200715163218/https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/01/30/the-atomic-origins-of-climate-science |url-status=live }}</ref> In his book ''Destined for War'', Graham Allison views the global rivalry between the established power, the US, and the rising power, China, as an example of the Thucydides Trap. Allison states that historically, "12 of 16 past cases where a rising power has confronted a ruling power" have led to fighting.<ref>Graham Allison (2017). ''Destined for War'', Scribe, p. 215</ref> In 2020 and 2023, the ''Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists'' advanced its Doomsday Clock, citing among other factors a predicted destabilizing effect from upcoming hypersonic weapons.<ref>{{cite news |title=Pentagon successfully tests nuclear-capable hypersonic missile |url=https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/03/21/world/us-military-tests-nuclear-hypersonic-missile/ |access-date=22 March 2020 |work=The Japan Times Online |agency=AFP-JIJI |date=21 March 2020 |archive-date=21 March 2020 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200321134929/https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/03/21/world/us-military-tests-nuclear-hypersonic-missile/ |url-status=live }}</ref>
Emerging technologies, such as artificial intelligence, could hypothetically generate risk in the decades ahead. A 2018 RAND Corporation report has argued that AI and associated information technology "will have a large effect on nuclear-security issues in the next quarter century". A hypothetical future AI could provide a destabilizing ability to track "second-launch" launchers. Incorporating AI into decision support systems used to decide whether to launch, could also generate new risks, including the risk of an adversarial exploitation of such an AI's algorithms by a third party to trigger a launch recommendation.<ref>{{cite news |last1=Browne |first1=Ryan |title=A.I. could lead to a nuclear war by 2040, think tank warns |url=https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/25/ai-could-lead-to-a-nuclear-war-by-2040-rand-corporation-warns.html |access-date=22 March 2020 |work=CNBC |date=25 April 2018 |language=en |archive-date=22 March 2020 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200322204500/https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/25/ai-could-lead-to-a-nuclear-war-by-2040-rand-corporation-warns.html |url-status=live }}</ref><ref>Geist, Edward and Andrew J. Lohn, How Might Artificial Intelligence Affect the Risk of Nuclear War?. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2018. [https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PE296.html] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200322204503/https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PE296.html|date=22 March 2020}}.</ref> A perception that some sort of emerging technology would lead to "world domination" might also be destabilizing, for example by leading to fear of a pre-emptive strike.<ref>{{Cite journal|last1=Sotala|first1=Kaj|last2=Yampolskiy|first2=Roman V|date=19 December 2014|title=Responses to catastrophic AGI risk: a survey|journal=Physica Scripta|volume=90|issue=1|page=12|doi=10.1088/0031-8949/90/1/018001|issn=0031-8949|doi-access=free}}</ref>
Cyberwarfare is the exploitation of technology by a nation-state or international organization to attack and destroy the opposing nation's information networks and computers. The damage can be caused by computer viruses or denial-of-service attacks (DoS). Cyberattacks are becoming increasingly common, threatening cybersecurity and making it a global priority.<ref>{{Cite web |title=Cyber Warfare |url=https://www.rand.org/topics/cyber-warfare.html |access-date=2 May 2022 |website=www.rand.org |language=en |archive-date=22 April 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220422105046/https://www.rand.org/topics/cyber-warfare.html |url-status=live }}</ref><ref name="Garon-2018">{{Cite journal |last=Garon |first=Jon M. |date=2018 |title=Cyber-World War III: Origins |url=https://www.jstor.org/stable/26777962 |journal=Journal of Law & Cyber Warfare |volume=7 |issue=1 |pages=1–60 |jstor=26777962 |issn=2578-6245 |access-date=2 May 2022 |archive-date=2 May 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220502040218/https://www.jstor.org/stable/26777962 |url-status=live }}</ref> There has been a proliferation of state-sponsored attacks. The trends of these attacks suggest the potential of a cyber World War III.<ref name="Garon-2018"/> The world's leading militaries are developing cyber strategies, including ways to alter the enemy's command and control systems, early warning systems, logistics, and transportation.<ref name="Garon-2018"/> The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine has sparked concerns about a large-scale cyberattack, with Russia having previously launched cyberattacks to compromise organizations across Ukraine. Nearly 40 discrete attacks were launched by Russia which permanently destroyed files in hundreds of systems across dozens of organizations, with 40% aimed at critical infrastructure sectors in Ukraine.<ref name=overview>{{Cite web |date=27 April 2022 |title=An overview of Russia's cyberattack activity in Ukraine Special Report: Ukraine Digital Security Unit |url=https://query.prod.cms.rt.microsoft.com/cms/api/am/binary/RE4Vwwd |website=Microsoft |access-date=2 May 2022 |archive-date=2 May 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220502132256/https://query.prod.cms.rt.microsoft.com/cms/api/am/binary/RE4Vwwd |url-status=live }}</ref> Russia's use of cyberwarfare has turned the war into a large-scale "hybrid" war in Ukraine.<ref name=overview/>
According to CIA original founder, Miles Copeland, a War hypothetical scenario described in his memoir ''The Game Player'' envisioned a wider conflict emerging through crises in the developing world rather than through an immediate direct superpower confrontation, involving the United States and Soviet-aligned forces acting largely through regional actors in the Third World.<ref name="Copeland276277282">{{cite book |last=Copeland |first=Miles |title=The Game Player: The Confessions of the CIA's Original Political Operative |publisher=Aurum Press |year=1989 |isbn=9780948149870 |pages=276–277, 282 |quote=We’ve bumbled through many times in the past, but there are signs that we may be losing what we need to concentrate our strengths and our capacity to counteract the forces that undermine them. Moreover, there are reasons to suspect that our strengths may be of the wrong kind for imminent dangers, the strengths of a lion or an elephant attacked by swarms of killer bees. We could take on a war with another great power tomorrow, and probably win. But, even with the help of the Israelis — especially with the help of the Israelis! — we couldn’t defeat the Iranian (Page 276), the ‘Arabs’, the world of Islam or the whole Third World if it should turn against us. We have reason to believe that Soviet strategists well understand this, and that the Third World War that they envision will be one of our adversaries against shapeless forces of the Third World, with Soviet Russia ostensibly aloof from it. (Page 277) By the second or third year of the Reagan administration, Washington was awash with misinformation and disinformation on terrorism, urban terrorism, international terrorism, ‘state terrorism’ and something called ‘institutional terrorism’, but it was the drama of the whole thing that interested the Soviets. The US Government was sinking into exactly the dilemma that best suited the purposes of Moscow’s Leninists as they’ve begun to blossom under Gorbachev. In materials easily available to the US Government without recourse to espionage, they had made it clear enough that in their version of the Third World War the United States would be forced into a variety of situations in which it would feel compelled to play the role of a powerful nation but, for all the world to see on its television sets, it would in fact, be powerless (Page 282).}}</ref>
== Multiple wars as a third world war == In multiple recorded interviews under somewhat casual circumstances, comparing the conflagrations of World War{{nbsp}}I and{{nbsp}}II to the ongoing lower-intensity wars of the 21st century, Pope Francis has said, "The world is at war because it has lost the peace", and "perhaps one can speak of a third war, one fought piecemeal".<ref>[http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2016/07/28/world/social-issues-world/pope-says-world-war-lost-peace-religion-not-blame/#.WJeFnes76rU Pope says 'world at war because it has lost peace' but religion not to blame] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170206190926/http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2016/07/28/world/social-issues-world/pope-says-world-war-lost-peace-religion-not-blame/#.WJeFnes76rU |date=6 February 2017 }} Japan Times. 28 July 2016. Downloaded 5 Feb.. 2017.</ref><ref>[https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-29190890 Pope Francis warns on 'piecemeal World War III] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20181023121520/https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-29190890 |date=23 October 2018 }} BBC, 13 September 2014. Downloaded 15 January 2017.</ref> His successor, Pope Leo XIV, reiterated the description during a visit to Turkey in 2025.<ref>{{Cite news|title=Pope Leo warns of risk from 'piecemeal' world war in first overseas trip|url=https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/nov/27/pope-leo-to-visit-turkey-and-lebanon-on-first-overseas-trip-as-pontiff|work=The Guardian|date=2025-11-27|access-date=2025-11-29|issn=0261-3077|language=en-GB|first1=Angela|last1=Giuffrida|first2=Ruth|last2=Michaelson}}</ref> Additionally, Fiona Hill, has argued that the combination of multiple major conflicts, including in Ukraine and in the Middle East, constitutes a third world war.<ref>{{Cite news |last=Wintour |first=Patrick |date=2025-05-10 |title=Are we heading for another world war – or has it already started? |url=https://www.theguardian.com/news/ng-interactive/2025/may/10/are-we-heading-for-another-world-war-or-has-it-already-started |access-date=2026-03-05 |work=The Guardian |language=en-GB |issn=0261-3077|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250527154213/https://www.theguardian.com/news/ng-interactive/2025/may/10/are-we-heading-for-another-world-war-or-has-it-already-started|archive-date=27 May 2025}}</ref> Polling by ''Politico'' found that a majority of American, Canadian, French and British respondents considered it more likely than not that World War 3 was likely to break out within the next five years. ''Politico'' cited Russia's invasion of Ukraine and US military action in Iran, Syria, Venezuela and Africa as potential contributing factors.<ref>{{Cite web |last=Ross |first=Tim |date=2026-02-13 |title=Western countries see World War III coming |url=https://www.politico.eu/article/world-war-iii-defense-spending-europe-poll/ |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20260227213917/https://www.politico.eu/article/world-war-iii-defense-spending-europe-poll/ |archive-date=27 February 2026 |access-date=2026-03-06 |website=POLITICO |language=en-GB}}</ref>
== In fiction == {{main|World War III in popular culture}}
The concept of World War III is a common theme in science fiction and popular culture.<ref>{{Cite web |title=SFE: World War Three |url=https://sf-encyclopedia.com/entry/world_war_three |access-date=23 May 2025 |website=sf-encyclopedia.com}}</ref>
==See also== {{Commons category}} {{Wikiquote}} {{Wiktionary}} * Anti-nuclear movement * Artificial intelligence arms race * Artificial Intelligence Cold War * Global catastrophe scenarios * Nuclear arms race * Nuclear holocaust * Nuclear terrorism * Second Cold War {{Clear}}
==Notes== {{Reflist|group=lower-alpha}}
==References== {{Reflist}} {{Reflist|group=BBC NEWS}}
==Further reading== {{Library resources box}} * Huntington, Samuel (1996). ''The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order'' Simon & Schuster, New York. {{ISBN|978-0-684-84441-1}}. * {{cite book |last=Langford |first=David |title=War in 2080 The Future of Military Technology |date=1981 |publisher=Sphere Books |location=London |isbn=978-0-7221-5393-2}} * Mearsheimer, John (2001). ''The Tragedy of Great Power Politics''. W. W. Norton, New York. {{ISBN|978-0-393-34927-6}}. * {{cite book |last=Pamidi |first=G.G. |title=Possibility of a Nuclear War in Asia: An Indian Perspective |date=2012 |location=New Delhi, India |publisher=United Service Institution of India – Vij Books India |isbn=978-93-81411-51-3}} * Piepers, Ingo (2016). ''[https://global4cast.org 2020: WARning]''. Conijn Advies. {{ISBN|978-90-824118-1-2}}.
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Category:Articles containing video clips Category:Political terminology Category:World War III speculative fiction Category:Doomsday scenarios Category:Nuclear warfare Category:1940s neologisms Category:Theories of history Category:War Category:War scare Category:World wars