{{Short description|Political scenario exercises in United States}} {{Promotional|date=June 2021}} {{use mdy dates|date=February 2020}} {{Infobox organization | name = Transition Integrity Project | native_name = | native_name_lang = | image = | image_size = | image_alt = | caption = | logo = | logo_size = | logo_alt = | logo_caption = | map = | map_size = | map_alt = | map_caption = | map2 = | map2_size = | map2_alt = | map2_caption = | abbreviation = | named_after = | predecessor = | merged_into = | successor = | formation = 2019 | founder = | founding_location = | extinction = <!-- use {{end date and age|YYYY|MM|DD}} --> | merger = | type = Series of June 2020 political scenario exercises | tax_id = <!-- or | vat_id = (for European organizations) --> | registration_id = <!-- for non-profit org --> | status = | purpose = To identify risks to a free, fair and peaceful 2020 election | headquarters = | location = United States | coordinates = <!-- {{coord|LAT|LON|display=inline, title}} --> | region_served = | products = | services = | methods = Simulation exercises | fields = | num_members = | num_members_year = | language = | owner = <!-- or | owners = --> | secretary_general = | leader_title = | leader_name = | leader_title2 = | leader_name2 = | leader_title3 = | leader_name3 = | leader_title4 = | leader_name4 = | board_of_directors = | key_people = {{plainlist| *[[Rosa Brooks]] *[[Nils Gilman]] *[[Jennifer Granholm]] *[[Michael Steele]] *[[John Podesta]] *[[William Kristol]] *[[David Frum]] *[[Trey Grayson]]}} | main_organ = | parent_organization = | subsidiaries = | secessions = | affiliations = | budget = | budget_year = | revenue = | revenue_year = | disbursements = | expenses = | expenses_year = | endowment = | num_staff = | num_staff_year = | num_volunteers = | num_volunteers_year = | website = {{URL|transitionintegrityproject.net/}} | remarks = | former_name = | footnotes = | mission = }}
'''Transition Integrity Project''' ('''TIP''') was a series of political scenario exercises in the [[United States]] at the beginning of June 2020, involving over 100 current and former senior government and campaign leaders, [[Academic degree|academics]], [[journalist]]s, polling experts and former federal and state government officials. The exercises examined potential disruptions to the [[2020 United States presidential election|2020 presidential election]] and [[United States presidential transition|transition]].<ref name="newsweek">{{Cite news|title=Bipartisan Group Predicts 'Violence' When Trump Loses Election and Refuses to Leave His House|language=en-US|work=newsweek.com|url=https://www.newsweek.com/bipartisan-group-predicts-violence-if-trump-loses-election-refuses-leave-white-house-1520561|access-date=2020-02-09}}</ref><ref name=":BG">{{Cite news|title=A Bipartisan group secretly gathered to game out a contested Trump–Biden election. It wasn't pretty|language=en-US|work=BostonGlobe.com|url=https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/07/25/nation/bipartisan-group-secretly-gathered-game-out-contested-trump-biden-election-it-wasnt-pretty/|access-date=2020-02-09}}</ref><ref name="Frum">{{Cite web |last=Frum |first=David |date=2020-07-31 |title=Where the System May Break |url=https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/07/how-2020-election-could-go-wrong/614842/ |url-status=live |archive-url=https://archive.today/20200806035413/https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/07/how-2020-election-could-go-wrong/614842/ |archive-date=2020-08-06 |access-date=2020-08-09 |website=[[The Atlantic]] |language=en-US}}</ref><ref name="npr._HowT">{{Cite web |title=How The 2020 Election Is A 'Stress Test' Of American Democracy : Fresh Air : NPR |author= |work=npr.org |date= |access-date=5 November 2020 |url= https://www.npr.org/2020/11/02/930381314/how-the-2020-election-is-a-stress-test-of-american-democracy}}</ref> TIP is not an organization, but rather a short-term project run under the auspices of the organization [[Protect Democracy]].<ref>{{Cite web |date=2020-07-31 |title=Transition Integrity Project Member Talks about this Initiative; Coronavirus Pandemic Update from Around the World; Unity as Trump Threatens Democracy |url=https://transcripts.cnn.com/show/nday/date/2020-07-31/segment/06 |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240516001744/http://edition.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/2007/31/nday.06.html |archive-date=2024-05-16 |access-date=2024-07-11 |website=[[CNN]]}}</ref>
==Background== The Transition Integrity Project was initially organized in late 2019<ref name="documentcloud.org">{{Cite web|date=2020-08-04|title=Transition Integrity Project: Preventing a disrupted presidential election and transition|url=https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/7013152-Preventing-a-Disrupted-Presidential-Election-and.html#document/p1|access-date=2020-08-09|website=Documentcloud|language=en}}</ref> by [[Rosa Brooks]], a law professor at Georgetown and former Pentagon senior official, and Nils Gilman, a former vice chancellor of the [[University of California, Berkeley]] and historian at the [[Berggruen Institute]]. Other participants in the Transition Integrity Project's exercises included:<ref name="Frum"/><ref>{{Cite web|last=Beauchamp|first=Zack|date=2020-08-19|title=How to avert a post-election nightmare|url=https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/8/18/21371964/2020-transition-integrity-project-simulation-trump|access-date=2020-08-24|website=Vox|language=en}}</ref><ref>{{Cite news|last=Goldberg|first=Michelle|date=2020-08-17|title=Opinion {{!}} Trump Might Cheat. Activists Are Getting Ready.|language=en-US|work=The New York Times|url=https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/17/opinion/trump-contested-election-protests.html|access-date=2020-08-24|issn=0362-4331}}</ref> * [[Michael Steele]] — former chair of the [[Republican National Committee]] * [[John Podesta]] — former [[White House Chief of Staff]] to former [[President of the United States]], [[Bill Clinton]] * [[Jennifer Granholm]] — former [[Governor of Michigan]] * [[Trey Grayson]] — former [[Secretary of State of Kentucky]] * [[Donna Brazile]] — former [[Democratic National Committee]] Acting Chair * [[Bill Kristol|William Kristol ]]— journalist * [[Edward Luce]] — journalist<ref>{{Cite web |last=Luce |first=Edward |author-link=Edward Lucas (journalist) |date=2020-07-02 |title=How America could fail its democracy test |url=https://www.ft.com/content/250c79f3-f1e8-4251-a224-ee819c6a1f6b |url-status=live |archive-url=https://archive.today/20200803032238/https://www.ft.com/content/250c79f3-f1e8-4251-a224-ee819c6a1f6b |archive-date=2020-08-03 |access-date=2024-07-12 |website=[[Financial Times]]}}</ref> * [[Max Boot]] — journalist * [[David Frum]] — journalist
The Transition Integrity Project (TIP) was launched "out of concern that the Trump Administration may seek to manipulate, ignore, undermine or disrupt the 2020 presidential election and transition process."<ref name="documentcloud.org" />
===History and context===
Peaceful [[United States presidential transition|presidential transitions]] are seen as a hallmark of republican democracy in the United States.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.whitehousehistory.org/presidential-inaugurations-traditions-transitions |title=Presidential Inaugurations: Traditions & Transitions |author=<!--Not stated--> |date= |website=WhiteHouseHistory.org |publisher=The White House Historical Association |access-date=2020-09-15 |quote="The peaceful transfer of presidential power from one administration to the next is a hallmark of American democracy. This transition, both peaceful and symbolic of continuity and change, continues to amaze the world and represents the best of American democracy."}}</ref> Even when there have been rancorous differences between the political parties and their presidential nominees, the defeated party nominee has always conceded the presidency to the electoral winner.
TIP was motivated to do a short term project by their assessment that the November elections would "be marked by a chaotic legal and political landscape. We also assess that President Trump is likely to contest the result by both legal and extra-legal means, in an attempt to hold onto power."<ref name="documentcloud.org" />
Trump's own statements have fueled concerns about the [[peaceful transition of power]].<ref name="thea_TheE">{{Cite web |title=The Election That Could Break America |last=Gellman |first=Barton |work=The Atlantic |date=September 23, 2020 |access-date=September 24, 2020 |url= https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/11/what-if-trump-refuses-concede/616424/?fbclid=IwAR0_DdlIx-GQvHMK3JLIFBEiE-hA5gmrFhQse_hIvi_aKzWMQf5UNOxGPl4}}</ref> In an interview with [[Chris Wallace]] in July, 2020, Donald Trump refused to say whether or not he would accept the results of the 2020 election.<ref>{{Cite news|last=Goldberg|first=Michelle|date=2020-07-19|title=Transcript: 'Fox News Sunday' interview with President Trump|language=en-US|work=Fox News Sunday|url=https://www.foxnews.com/politics/transcript-fox-news-sunday-interview-with-president-trump|access-date=2020-09-21|quote="No, I'm not going to just say yes. I'm not going to say no, and I didn't last time either. What I'm saying is that I will tell you at the time. I'll keep you in suspense. OK?"}}</ref>
A day later, Trump tweeted about postponing the 2020 election, spurring concerns that he might attempt to delay the election due to unspecified and unsubstantiated voter fraud. "With Universal Mail-In Voting (not Absentee Voting, which is good), 2020 will be the most INACCURATE & FRAUDULENT Election in history. It will be a great embarrassment to the USA. Delay the Election until people can properly, securely and safely vote???"<ref>{{cite tweet |author=Donald J Trump|author-link=Donald_Trump |user=realDonaldTrump |number=1288818160389558273|date=July 30, 2020 |title=With Universal Mail-In Voting (not Absentee Voting, which is good), 2020 will be the most INACCURATE & FRAUDULENT Election in history. It will be a great embarrassment to the USA. Delay the Election until people can properly, securely and safely vote??? |script-title=|link=https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1288818160389558273 |access-date=September 1, 2020 |url-status=dead|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200730124635/https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1288818160389558273|archive-date=July 30, 2020}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web|title=Trump floats delaying election despite lack of authority to do so|date=July 30, 2020 |url=https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/30/politics/trump-delay-election-no-authority/index.html|access-date=2020-07-30|publisher=CNN}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web|title=Trump Suggests Unprecedented Delay to November Election — But Congress Sets the Date|url=https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/politics/trump-suggests-unprecedented-delay-to-november-election/2542252/|access-date=2020-07-30|website=www.nbcnewyork.com|date=July 30, 2020 }}</ref><ref>{{Cite web|title=Trump floats idea of delaying election, congressional Republicans reject idea|url=https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-trump/trump-floats-idea-of-delaying-election-congressional-republicans-reject-idea-idUSKCN24V2DL|access-date=2020-07-30|publisher=Reuters}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web|title=Trump floats delaying 2020 election|url=https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/30/trump-suggests-delaying-2020-election-387902|access-date=2020-07-30|website=Politico}}</ref>
In the history of the United States, the presidential election has never been postponed, and the president does not have the legal power to delay an election, whose date is set by an 1845 law.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.loc.gov/law/help/statutes-at-large/28th-congress/session-2/c28s2ch1.pdf|title=An act to establish a uniform time for holding elections for electors of Presidents and Vice Presidents|date=January 23, 1845|work=Acts of the Twenty-Eighth Congress of the United States|accessdate=27 September 2020}}</ref><ref name="bloo_CanT">{{Cite news |title=Can Trump Delay the 2020 Election? Here's What the Constitution Says |author= |work=Bloomberg.com |date= April 13, 2020|access-date=25 September 2020 |url= https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-04-13/can-trump-postpone-2020-election-here-s-what-constitution-says}}</ref><ref name="nyti_WhyT">{{Cite web |title=Why Trump Has No Power to Delay the 2020 Election |author= |work=[[The New York Times]] |date= |access-date=25 September 2020 |url= https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/30/us/politics/trump-postpone-election.html}}</ref><ref name="lati_Coul">{{Cite web |title=Could Trump delay the November election? Not without risking forfeit to a Democrat |author= |work=Los Angeles Times |date= March 17, 2020|access-date=25 September 2020 |url= https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2020-03-17/no-trump-cant-postpone-the-november-election-but-thats-the-first-question}}</ref> Representative [[Jerry Nadler]], chairman of the [[United States House Committee on the Judiciary|House Judiciary Committee]], noted that only the Congress has the authority to change laws that deal with the date of the election.<ref>{{cite tweet |author=Rep Jerry Nadler|author-link=Jerry Nadler |user=RepJerryNadler |number=1288835363109326848|date=July 30, 2020 |title=Let's be clear: Trump does not have the ability to delay the election. Our elections are enshrined in the Constitution. The Constitution also says that if the date of the election is to be changed, it must be changed by Congress.|script-title=|link=https://twitter.com/RepJerryNadler/status/1288835363109326848 |access-date=September 29, 2020 }}</ref>
Trump also claimed that mail balloting leads to widespread fraud, making a distinction between universal mail-in Voting and absentee voting. "Absentee Ballots are a great way to vote for the many senior citizens, military, and others who can't get to the polls on Election Day. These ballots are very different from 100% Mail-In Voting, which is 'RIPE for FRAUD,' and shouldn't be allowed!"<ref name="Donald J Trump">{{cite tweet |author="Donald J Trump"|author-link=Donald_Trump |user=realDonaldTrump |number=1248031484532928514|date=April 8, 2020 |title=Absentee Ballots are a great way to vote for the many senior citizens, military, and others who can't get to the polls on Election Day. These ballots are very different from 100% Mail-In Voting, which is 'RIPE for FRAUD,' and shouldn't be allowed!|script-title=|link=https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1248031484532928514 |access-date=September 3, 2020 }}</ref> Fact checkers say there is no evidence of substantial fraud associated with mail voting.<ref name="pbs._Trum">{{Cite web |title=Trump says voting by mail isn't reliable. What does the evidence show? |author= |work=PBS NewsHour |date= September 24, 2020|access-date=25 September 2020 |url= https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/trump-says-voting-by-mail-isnt-reliable-what-does-the-evidence-show}}</ref><ref name="factcheck">{{Cite news|last=Farley|first=Robert|date=2020-04-10|title=Trump's Latest Voter Fraud Misinformation|language=en-US|url=https://www.factcheck.org/2020/04/trumps-latest-voter-fraud-misinformation/|access-date=2020-06-12}}</ref><ref>{{cite news|url=https://apnews.com/c751ee2efb2b84d66c56ff4109db9751|title=AP FACT CHECK: Trump misleads on mail ballots, virus vaccine|last=Yen|first=Hope|date=August 8, 2020|work=AP News|accessdate=17 August 2020}}</ref> Many studies show that postal voting has an extremely small risk of [[Voter fraud in the United States|fraud]]. Known instances of such fraud are very rare,<ref name="nprav">{{Cite news |last=Young |first=Ashley |date=2016-09-23 |title=A Complete Guide To Early And Absentee Voting |language=en |url=https://www.npr.org/2016/09/23/491999689/a-complete-guide-to-early-and-absentee-voting |access-date=2020-06-15}}</ref> with one database finding 491 cases of absentee ballot fraud from 2000 to 2012, a period in which billions of votes were cast.<ref>{{Cite web|last=Farley|first=Robert|date=2020-04-10|title=Trump's Latest Voter Fraud Misinformation |url=https://www.factcheck.org/2020/04/trumps-latest-voter-fraud-misinformation/ |website=FactCheck.org |language=en-US |access-date=2020-06-19}}</ref> A Washington Post analysis found that officials identified just 372 possible cases of double voting or voting on behalf of deceased people out of about 14.6 million votes cast by mail in the 2016 and 2018 general elections, or 0.0025 percent.<ref name="wash_Minu">{{Cite news |title=Minuscule number of potentially fraudulent ballots in states with universal mail voting undercuts Trump claims about election risks |author= |newspaper=Washington Post |date= |access-date=8 November 2020 |url= https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/minuscule-number-of-potentially-fraudulent-ballots-in-states-with-universal-mail-voting-undercuts-trump-claims-about-election-risks/2020/06/08/1e78aa26-a5c5-11ea-bb20-ebf0921f3bbd_story.html}}</ref> All mailed-in ballots in all states are verified before they are counted, regardless of whether they are cast in an all-mail state, said Wendy Underhill, direction of elections and redistricting at the NCSL.<ref name="wash_What">{{Cite news |title=What's the difference between absentee and mail-in voting? |author= |newspaper=Washington Post |date= |access-date=8 November 2020 |url= https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/08/18/whats-difference-between-absentee-mail-in-voting/}}</ref>
Trump has also claimed that Democrats' efforts to expand the availability of [[Postal voting in the United States|mail-in voting]] and [[ballot collection]] will result in widespread voter fraud.<ref name="Donald J Trump"/> Democrats see this as Trump laying the groundwork for a contested election. This outcome could be especially likely in the event of a so-called "[[Blue shift (politics)|Red Mirage]]", where Trump appears to have won on election night but actually loses after all of the mail-in ballots have been tallied.<ref>{{cite news |last=Talev |first=Margaret |date=2020-09-01 |title=Dem group warns of apparent Trump Election Day landslide |url=https://www.axios.com/bloomberg-group-trump-election-night-scenarios-a554e8f5-9702-437e-ae75-d2be478d42bb.html |work=Axios |access-date=2020-09-15}}</ref> Democrats also became concerned that Trump might [[2020 United States Postal Service crisis|interfere with the ability of the United States Postal Service to deliver ballots]].<ref>{{cite news |last1=Shear |first1=Michael D. |last2=Fuchs |first2=Hailey |last3=Vogel |first3=Kenneth |date=2020-07-31 |title=Mail Delays Fuel Concern Trump Is Undercutting Postal System Ahead of Voting |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/31/us/politics/trump-usps-mail-delays.html |work=The New York Times |access-date=2020-09-15}}</ref>
In September 2020, a federal judge issued an injunction against the [[2020 United States Postal Service crisis|recent USPS actions]], ruling that Trump and Postmaster [[Louis DeJoy]] were "involved in a politically motivated attack on the efficiency of the Postal Service," adding that the 14 states requesting the injunction "demonstrated that this attack on the Postal Service is likely to irreparably harm the states' ability to administer the 2020 general election."<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://lawandcrime.com/2020-election/federal-judge-rules-trump-and-louis-dejoy-waged-politically-motivated-attack-against-usps-will-rescind-recent-changes/|title=Federal Judge Rules Trump and Louis DeJoy Waged 'Politically Motivated Attack' Against USPS, Will Rescind Recent Changes|date=September 17, 2020 }}</ref>
On September 25, 2020, Donald Trump repeated his concerns that "ballots were a disaster" and he refused to commit to a peaceful transfer of power, insisting on a "continuation of power" instead.<ref name="msn._Trum">{{Cite web |title=Trump declines to commit to peaceful transfer of power: 'There won't be a transfer' |author= |work=MSN |date= |access-date=6 October 2020 |url= https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-declines-to-commit-to-peaceful-transfer-of-power-there-wont-be-a-transfer/ar-BB19muLU |quote=MORE }}</ref>
==War games==
===Methodology=== In the summer of 2020, TIP conducted a series of [[Wargame|war-gaming]] exercises.<ref>{{Cite news |last=Brooks |first=Rosa |title=What's the worst that could happen? |url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/09/03/trump-stay-in-office/ |access-date=2020-09-03 |newspaper=Washington Post}}</ref> The scenarios<ref name="documentcloud.org"/><ref name="npr.org">{{Cite web|title=Experts Game Out What Might Happen If The Election Goes Off The Rails|url=https://www.npr.org/2020/07/30/897345056/experts-game-out-what-might-happen-if-the-election-goes-off-the-rails|website=NPR.org|language=en}}</ref> examined by TIP included: # ''Game One: Ambiguous''. The first game investigated a scenario in which the outcome of the election remained unclear from election night and throughout gameplay. The results from three states are in contention and ballots are destroyed in one of the states, making it unclear who should have won that state. Neither campaign is willing to concede. # ''Game Two: Clear Biden Win''. Biden wins both the Electoral College and the popular vote. Trump alleges fraud and takes steps to benefit himself and his family but ultimately hands the White House over to Biden. # ''Game Three: Clear Trump Win.'' The third scenario started with an Electoral College victory for President Trump (286 to 252), but a popular vote win (52% to 47%) for former Vice President Biden. In this scenario Biden refused to concede, convinced the Democratic governors of two states that Trump won to send separate slates of electors to the Electoral College, encouraged three states to threaten secession, and convinced the House of Representatives to refuse to certify the election and declare Biden the victor. # ''Game Four: Narrow Biden Win''. The final scenario explored a narrow Biden win where he leads with less than 1% of the popular vote and has a slim lead at 278 electoral votes. The Trump campaign sows chaos but Senate Republicans and the [[Joint Chiefs of Staff]] eventually signal that they accept Biden's win. Trump refuses to leave and is removed by the Secret Service.
===Conclusions=== In August 2020, TIP released a report<ref name="documentcloud.org" /> outlining its findings and recommendations. The report stated, "We […] assess that the [''sic''] President Trump is likely to contest the result by both legal and extra-legal means, in an attempt to hold onto power. Recent events, including the President's own unwillingness to commit to abiding by the results of the election, the Attorney General's embrace of the President's groundless electoral fraud claims, and the unprecedented deployment of federal agents to put down leftwing protests, underscore the extreme lengths to which President Trump may be willing to go in order to stay in office."<ref name="documentcloud.org"/> The report's intention was to inspire the necessary changes to ensure a fair election in 2020. "These risks can be mitigated; the worst outcomes of the exercises are far from a certainty. The purpose of this report is not to frighten, but to spur all stakeholders to action."
==Analysis== The TIP report sparked a national conversation about risks to the 2020 election and transition and means of mitigating those risks.<ref>{{Cite news|last=Blow|first=Charles M.|date=2020-08-23|title=Trump's Campaign of Chaos|language=en-US|work=The New York Times|url=https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/23/opinion/trump-2020.html|access-date=2020-08-30|issn=1542-667X}}</ref><ref>{{Cite magazine |last=Lach |first=Eric |title=What Happens if Donald Trump Fights the Election Results? |url=https://www.newyorker.com/news/campaign-chronicles/what-happens-if-donald-trump-fights-the-election-results |access-date=2020-08-30 |magazine=The New Yorker}}</ref><ref>{{Cite news |last=Beauchamp |first=Zack |date=2020-08-18 |title=How to avert a post-election nightmare |url=https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/8/18/21371964/2020-transition-integrity-project-simulation-trump |access-date=2020-08-30 |work=Vox}}</ref><ref>{{Cite news |last=Bouie |first=Jamelle |date=2020-08-11 |title=How to Foil Trump's Election Night Strategy |language=en-US |work=The New York Times |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/11/opinion/trump-election-day.html |access-date=2020-08-30 |issn=0362-4331}}</ref><ref>{{Cite news |last=Tolliver |first=Sandy |date=2020-08-11 |title=Will Pence choose partisanship over statesmanship in counting ballots? |url=https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/511308-will-harris-choose-partisanship-over-statesmanship-in-counting-ballots |access-date=2020-08-30 |work=The Hill}}</ref><ref>{{Citation|title=Will Americans Trust the Election Process?|date=August 3, 2020 |url=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2020-08-03/will-americans-trust-the-election-process-video|language=en|access-date=2020-08-30}}</ref><ref>{{Cite news |last=Smith |first=Ben |date=2020-08-02 |title=How the DNC Could Get the Election Story Wrong |work=The New York Times |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/02/business/media/election-coverage.html |access-date=2020-08-30 |issn=0362-4331}}</ref> The TIP team admitted that they didn't game out two areas of interest: post-election legal actions and media, including social media, actions after the election. These shortcomings were simulated in another post-election simulation run in October.<ref>{{cite news |last=Fund |first=John |date=2020-10-19 |title=Election Day: What If We Have No Winner for Months?|url=https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/10/election-day-what-if-we-have-no-winner-for-months/ |work=National Review |access-date=2020-10-28}}</ref>
==Similar efforts by conservative groups== Two [[American conservative]] [[think tank]]s, the [[Texas Public Policy Foundation]] and the [[Claremont Institute]], assembled a team of constitutional scholars and experts in other relevant fields (election law, foreign affairs, law enforcement, and media) and performed a similar set of exercises.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.texaspolicy.com/we-gamed-out-the-2020-election-and-found-our-constitution-can-handle-the-madness/ |title=We Gamed Out The 2020 Election And Found Our Constitution Can Handle The Madness |vauthors=Roberts K, Williams R |date=October 19, 2020 |website=Texas Public Policy Foundation |access-date=November 12, 2020}}</ref> They gamed out three scenarios: # ''Game One: Clear Trump Win''. Trump eventually wins 32 states and 322 Electoral College votes, but the announcement is delayed for days or weeks to allow time for counting mail-in ballots. # ''Game Two: Clear Biden Win''. Biden eventually wins 26 states and Washington, D.C., which gives him 342 Electoral College votes, but the announcement is delayed for days or weeks to allow time for counting mail-in ballots. # ''Game Three: Ambiguous''. The final election results of several states are the subject of intense court fights that disrupt voting by the Electoral College and certification of the election by Congress. Eventually these fights end up being argued before the Supreme Court. They concluded that even in the face of public unrest and attempted interference by [[Russia]] and [[PRC|China]], the constitutional order would prevail.
==Aftermath== Donald Trump lost the popular vote by a wide margin (over 7 million votes nationally)<ref name="poli_Bide">{{Cite web |title=Biden's Popular Vote Lead is Now Over 7 Million Votes As States Continue Their Counts |author= |work=POLITICUSUSA |date= |access-date=8 December 2020 |url= https://www.politicususa.com/2020/12/04/bidens-popular-vote-lead-is-now-over-7-million-votes-as-states-continue-their-counts.html}}</ref><ref name="cnn._Bide">{{Cite web |title=Biden's popular vote margin over Trump tops 7 million |last1=Sullivan |first1=Kate |last2=Agiesta |first2=Jennifer |work=CNN |date=4 December 2020 |access-date=8 December 2020 |url= https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/04/politics/biden-popular-vote-margin-7-million/index.html}}</ref> and the electoral college by the same margin as Trump won the White House in 2016: 306/232 in Biden's favor.<ref name="poli_Live">{{Cite web |title=Live 2020 election results: Presidency, Senate and House |author= |work=politico.com |date= |access-date=20 November 2020 |url= https://www.politico.com/2020-election/results/}}</ref><ref name="grap_U.S.">{{Cite news |title=U.S. 2020 live election results |author= |work=Reuters |date= |access-date=20 November 2020 |url= https://graphics.reuters.com/USA-ELECTION/RESULTS-LIVE-US/jbyprxelqpe/}}</ref>
Having lost the popular vote and failing to secure the 270 electoral college votes required to win the Presidency, Trump claimed widespread fraud. He ordered his legal team to [[Post-election lawsuits related to the 2020 United States presidential election|file dozens of court cases]] throughout the country. To date, they won one case and 59 were dropped by his own attorneys, dismissed by courts before evidence was presented, or had rulings against Trump's efforts.<ref name="theg_Trum">{{Cite news |title=Trump's election legal challenges: where do things stand? |author= |work=the Guardian |date= November 19, 2020|access-date=20 November 2020 |url= https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/nov/19/trump-election-result-biden-legal-challenges}}</ref><ref name="fast_Here">{{Cite web |title=Here's how Donald Trump's election court battles have fared so far. (Not good!) |author= |work=Fast Company |date= |access-date=20 November 2020 |url= https://www.fastcompany.com/90578151/heres-how-donald-trumps-election-court-battles-have-fared-so-far-not-good}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |title=Trump's election lawsuits plagued by elementary errors |author= |work=AP NEWS |date= November 19, 2020|access-date=20 November 2020 |url= https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-donald-trump-politics-lawsuits-elections-a508ebaafae82286c69eb091b75abdfc}}</ref><ref name="apne_Trum">{{Cite web |title=Trump thought courts were key to winning. Judges disagreed. |author= |work=AP NEWS |date= December 8, 2020|access-date=8 December 2020 |url= https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-courts-election-results-e1297d874f45d2b14bc99c403abd0457}}</ref><ref name="fact_TheF">{{Cite web |title=The Facts on Trump's Post-Election Legal Challenges |author= |work=FactCheck.org |date= November 20, 2020|access-date=8 December 2020 |url= https://www.factcheck.org/2020/11/the-facts-on-trumps-post-election-legal-challenges/}}</ref><ref name="nbcn_Trum">{{Cite web |title=Trump's election fight includes over 50 lawsuits. It's not going well. |author= |work=NBC News |date=23 November 2020 |access-date=10 December 2020 |url= https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/trump-s-election-fight-includes-over-30-lawsuits-it-s-n1248289}}</ref><ref name="buzz_Trum">{{Cite web |title=Trump And His Allies Have Lost Nearly 60 Election Fights In Court (And Counting) |author= |work=BuzzFeed News |date= December 14, 2020|access-date=16 December 2020 |url= https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/zoetillman/trump-election-court-losses-electoral-college}}</ref>
The day after Trump's lawyers abandoned their court case in Michigan courts, Trump summoned Michigan state Senate Majority Leader [[Mike Shirkey]] and House Speaker [[Lee Chatfield]] to the White House to discuss having the legislature ignore the loss at the ballot box and certify electors favorable to him. Biden won Michigan by 150,000 votes. Such a move would be unprecedented and may be illegal according to Michigan law.<ref>{{Cite web |title=Trump summons Michigan GOP leaders for extraordinary meeting |author= |work=AP NEWS |date= November 19, 2020|access-date=20 November 2020 |url= https://apnews.com/article/trump-invites-michigan-gop-white-house-6ab95edd3373ecc9607381175d6f3328}}</ref><ref name="wash_Trum">{{Cite news |title=Trump invites Michigan Republican leaders to meet him at White House as he escalates attempts to overturn election results |author= |newspaper=Washington Post |date= |access-date=9 December 2020 |url= https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/11/19/wayne-county-rescind-certifying-election/}}</ref> <ref name="voan_Trum">{{Cite web |title=Trump Invites Michigan Lawmakers to White House |author= |work=Voice of America |date= November 19, 2020|access-date=9 December 2020 |url= https://www.voanews.com/a/2020-usa-votes_trump-invites-michigan-lawmakers-white-house/6198602.html}}</ref><ref name="wash_20da">{{Cite news |title=20 days of fantasy and failure: Inside Trump's quest to overturn the election |author= |newspaper=Washington Post |date= |access-date=29 November 2020 |url= https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-election-overturn/2020/11/28/34f45226-2f47-11eb-96c2-aac3f162215d_story.html}}</ref>
Trump also unsuccessfully personally pressured the Governor of Georgia, Republican [[Brian Kemp]], to overturn the election.<ref name="cnn._Trum">{{Cite web |title=Trump pressured Georgia governor in call to help overturn Biden's win in state |last1=Holmes |first1=Kristen |last2=Stracqualursi |first2=Veronica |work=CNN |date=5 December 2020 |access-date=8 December 2020 |url= https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/05/politics/trump-georgia-brian-kemp-phone-call/index.html |quote=Georgia Gov. Brian Kem }}</ref><ref name="nyti_Trum">{{Cite web |title=Trump's Pressure Campaign in Georgia |author= |work=[[The New York Times]] |date= |access-date=8 December 2020 |url= https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/07/us/politics/trump-biden-vaccine.html}}</ref><ref name="bloo_Geor">{{Cite news |title=Georgia Officials Rebuff Trump's Call to Help Overturn Election |author= |work=Bloomberg.com |date= December 5, 2020|access-date=8 December 2020 |url= https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-05/trump-attacks-ally-in-georgia-ahead-of-senate-campaign-trip}}</ref>
Since the election, Trump raised money allegedly for legal costs related to overturning the election. Trump sources claim hundreds of millions in donations to date. However, the fund raising materials spell out that the vast majority of donations are not going toward funding litigation to overturn the election, but rather, to his new [[Leadership PAC]], "[[Save America]]," which allows the money to be spent on virtually anything including direct payments to Trump himself.<ref name="cbsn_Trum">{{Cite web |title=Trump's Save America PAC is raking in donations — what can that money be spent on? |author= |work=cbsnews.com |date= December 5, 2020|access-date=8 December 2020 |url= https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trumps-save-america-pac-is-raking-in-donations-what-can-that-money-be-spent-on/ |quote=$207.5 million in donations }}</ref><ref name="wash_Trum495">{{Cite news |title=Trump raises $495 million since mid-October, including a massive haul fueled by misleading appeals about election fraud |author= |newspaper=Washington Post |date= |access-date=8 December 2020 |url= https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-fundraising/2020/12/03/3aa1091a-35b6-11eb-8d38-6aea1adb3839_story.html}}</ref><ref name="reut_Trum">{{Cite web |title=Trump unveils $207 million fundraising haul after election in effort to overturn result |last=Lewis |first=Simon |work=U.S. |date= |access-date=8 December 2020 |url= https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-trump-fundraising/trump-unveils-207-million-fundraising-haul-after-election-in-effort-to-overturn-result-idUSKBN28E012}}</ref>
Thus, much of scenario two of the war games has played out.
In addition, on January 6, 2021, the day Congress met to certify the votes of the Electoral College, Donald Trump held a rally in front of the White House<ref name="yout_WATC">{{Cite web |title=WATCH {{!}} President Trump speaks at 'Save America' rally - YouTube |author= |work=youtube.com |date= |access-date=10 January 2021 |url= https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ru0LbdU1oOQ}}</ref> calling for a march on the Capital which resulted in a [[January 6 United States Capitol attack|riot]]. This was the first such attack on the U.S. Capitol since [[1954 United States Capitol shooting|Puerto Rican Nationalists attacked Congress in 1954]]. Violence was also one of the possible outcomes that the TIP report suggested.
In response, [[Nancy Pelosi]], The Speaker of the House, and many Democrats called for one article of Impeachment<ref name="nbcn_Full">{{Cite web |title=Full text: Draft of articles of impeachment against Trump for 'incitement of insurrection' |author= |work=NBC News |date=8 January 2021 |access-date=10 January 2021 |url= https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/full-text-draft-articles-impeachment-against-trump-incitement-insurrection-n1253562}}</ref> against Donald J. Trump for, "Incitement of Insurrection".<ref name="msn._Pelo">{{Cite web |title=Pelosi urges lawmakers to 'return to Washington this week' as calls for impeachment grow |author= |work=MSN |date= |access-date=10 January 2021 |url= https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/pelosi-urges-lawmakers-to-return-to-washington-this-week-as-calls-for-impeachment-grow/ar-BB1cCOjt}}</ref><ref name="forb_Hous">{{Cite web |title=House Republicans Ask For Biden To Help Stop Trump Impeachment |last=Reimann |first=Nicholas |work=Forbes |date=9 January 2021 |access-date=10 January 2021 |url= https://www.forbes.com/sites/nicholasreimann/2021/01/09/house-republicans-ask-for-biden-to-help-stop-trump-impeachment/?sh=73c69a8a835a}}</ref><ref name="nyti_Demo">{{Cite web |title=Democrats Ready Impeachment Charge Against Trump for Inciting Capitol Mob |author= |work=[[The New York Times]] |date= |access-date=10 January 2021 |url= https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/08/us/politics/democrats-trump-impeachment.html}}</ref> Donald Trump was impeached by the House of Representatives [[Second impeachment of Donald Trump|for a second time]] on January 13, 2021.
Shortly before Twitter disabled Trump's account on January 8, 2021, he finally conceded the election in a tweet, saying, "To all of those who have asked, I will not be going to the Inauguration on January 20th," and "new administration will be inaugurated on January 20"<ref name="cnn._Trum1">{{Cite web |title=Trump tweets he is skipping Biden's inauguration |last1=Collins |first1=Kaitlan |last2=Liptak |first2=Kevin |work=CNN |date=8 January 2021 |access-date=10 January 2021 |url= https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/08/politics/donald-trump-next-steps/index.html}}</ref>
==References== {{reflist}}
[[Category:Politics of the United States]] [[Category:United States-centric]] [[Category:Political campaigns]]