{{Short description|American political pollster (born 1956)}} {{Use mdy dates|date=November 2024}} {{Infobox person | name = Ann Selzer | image = | website = [http://selzerco.com selzerco.com] | birth_date = {{birth year and age|1956}} | birth_place = Rochester, Minnesota, U.S. | occupation = Pollster | years_active = 1987–2024 (election polling) | education = University of Kansas (BA)<br>University of Iowa (PhD) }} '''Jane Ann Selzer''' (born 1956) is an American political pollster and the president of the Des Moines, Iowa-based polling firm Selzer & Company, which she founded in 1996.<ref>{{Cite news |first=John|last=Whitesides|url=https://www.reuters.com/article/world/biden-still-leads-in-2020-iowa-poll-three-others-fight-for-second-idUSKCN1TA021/ |title=Biden Still Leads in 2020 Iowa Poll, Three Others Fight for Second |work=Reuters |date=June 8, 2019 |access-date=June 9, 2019 |language=en-US |issn=0362-4331}}</ref><ref name="grinnell">{{Cite web|title=Grinnell College National Poll Leadership|url=https://www.grinnell.edu/poll/leadership|access-date=June 9, 2019|website=Grinnell College}}</ref> She was described as "the best pollster in politics" by Clare Malone of ''FiveThirtyEight'', which also gave Selzer & Company a rare A+ grade for accuracy.<ref name="grinnell" /><ref name="fivethirtyeight">{{Cite news|last=Malone|first=Clare|date=January 27, 2016|title=Ann Selzer Is The Best Pollster In Politics|language=en-US|work=FiveThirtyEight|url=https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/selzer/|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160127212411/http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/selzer/|url-status=dead|archive-date=January 27, 2016|access-date=June 9, 2019}}</ref>
Her polls of Iowa voters had a reputation for being highly accurate, based on their performance in elections from 2008 through 2020. However, Selzer's polls incorrectly predicted Democratic victories in Iowa for the presidential elections of 2004 and 2024, with the latter underestimating Republican Donald Trump by sixteen points. She announced her retirement from the election polling part of her practice shortly after the 2024 election, announcing that she will focus on future endeavors in other parts of her business.
== Early life== Selzer was born in Rochester, Minnesota, in 1956, the middle child in a family of five.<ref name="wallstreetjournal">{{Cite news|url=https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-pollster-who-figured-out-iowas-quirky-caucuses-11578074387|title=J. Ann Selzer: The Pollster to Follow as Iowa Looms|last=Winkler|first=Elizabeth|date=January 4, 2020|work=Wall Street Journal|access-date=January 4, 2020}}</ref> She was raised in Topeka, Kansas. Selzer attended the University of Kansas, initially as a pre-med student, but eventually lost interest in medicine.<ref name="fivethirtyeight" /> She graduated with a Bachelor of Arts in Speech and Dramatics Arts in 1978.<ref>{{Cite web|url=http://blog.college.ku.edu/alumni-qa-with-j-ann-selzer-political-pollster/|title=Alumni Q&A with J. Ann Selzer, political pollster – KU College Stories|language=en|access-date=February 3, 2020}}</ref> She then earned a Ph.D. in Communication Theory and Research from the University of Iowa in 1984.<ref>{{Cite thesis|last=Selzer|first=J. Ann|title=The gender gap: Social evolution and social revolution|date=1984|degree=Ph.D.|publisher=University of Iowa}}</ref>
==Career== After graduation, Selzer worked for ''The Des Moines Register''. She established her own polling firm, Selzer & Company, in 1996. She worked as the pollster for the ''Register'' for many years, and oversaw nearly all of the ''Register''{{'}}s Iowa Polls from 1987 to 2024, according to ''FiveThirtyEight''. She has also done polling work for numerous other news organizations, including the ''Detroit Free Press'' and the ''Indianapolis Star''.<ref name="atlantic" /><ref name="fivethirtyeight" /> Recently, Selzer has partnered with Grinnell College as a part of the Grinnell College National Poll program.<ref>{{Cite web|title=Grinnell College National Poll {{!}} Grinnell College|url=https://www.grinnell.edu/poll|access-date=April 10, 2021|website=www.grinnell.edu}}</ref>
===Polling methodology=== Selzer's polls utilize random sampling through random digit dialing in a dual-frame design with both landlines and cell phones. The sampling frame for her political polls of likely caucusgoers typically consist of lists of registered voters.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.realclearpolling.com/stories/analysis/what-to-make-of-the-selzer-poll|title=What To Make of the Selzer Poll? |date=4 November 2024|website=RealClearPolling}}</ref><ref name="fivethirtyeight"/> Likely voters for relevant elections being polled are determined through self-reported responses on intention to vote or participate in caucuses. Selzer states that she uses minimal weighting in her polling, adjusting for demographic variables such as age, race, and sex with U.S. census data and declining to adjust for variables like recalled voting history.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.grinnell.edu/poll/methodology|title=Data and Methodology|website=Grinnell}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.bleedingheartland.com/2018/06/22/interview-ann-selzer-stands-by-sampling-method-for-primary-polls/|title=Interview: Ann Selzer stands by sampling method for primary polls|website=Bleeding Heartland|date = 22 June 2018}}</ref><ref name="fivethirtyeight"/>
===Results=== In the 2004 presidential election, Selzer's polling inaccurately predicted that John Kerry would win Iowa against George W. Bush. Selzer was the only pollster to correctly predict Barack Obama's comfortable victory in the 2008 Iowa Democratic caucuses,<ref name="atlantic">{{Cite news |url=https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2011/11/friday-interview-the-polling-guru-of-the-iowa-caucuses/249036/ |title=Friday Interview: The Polling Guru of the Iowa Caucuses |last=Ball |first=Molly |date=November 25, 2011 |work=The Atlantic |access-date=June 9, 2019 |language=en-US}}</ref> and her poll of the 2014 United States Senate election in Iowa also mirrored the actual result exceptionally closely.<ref>{{Cite news |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/31/upshot/why-this-is-the-iowa-poll-that-everyones-waiting-for.html |title=Why This Is the Iowa Poll That Everyone Was Waiting For |last=Cohn |first=Nate |authorlink=Nate Cohn |date=January 30, 2016 |work=The New York Times |access-date=June 9, 2019 |language=en-US |issn=0362-4331}}</ref>
Selzer & Co. conducted their final 2016 presidential poll in Iowa in early November, showing Donald Trump ahead of Hillary Clinton by seven percentage points.<ref>{{cite news |last1=Noble |first1=Jason |title=Iowa Poll: Trump opens 7-point lead over Clinton |url=https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2016/11/05/iowa-poll-trump-opens-7-point-lead-over-clinton/93347134/?hootPostID=244ad51ae6af519614281eb8c6904b90 |access-date=December 19, 2020 |website=Des Moines Register |date=November 5, 2016}}</ref> Most other polls at the time showed a much closer race.<ref>{{cite web |title=2016 Presidential forecast summary for Iowa |url=https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/iowa/ |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160702060658/http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/iowa/ |url-status=dead |archive-date=July 2, 2016 |website=FiveThirtyEight |date=June 29, 2016 |access-date=December 19, 2020}}</ref> Trump won Iowa by 9.4 percentage points. Selzer's final Iowa poll ahead of the 2020 presidential election showed Trump ahead of Joe Biden by seven percentage points, and Republican Senator Joni Ernst ahead of Democratic challenger Theresa Greenfield by four percentage points.<ref>{{Cite web|last=Pfannenstiel|first=Brianne|title=Iowa Poll: Donald Trump takes over lead in Iowa as Joe Biden fades|url=https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2020/10/31/election-2020-iowa-poll-president-donald-trump-leads-joe-biden/6061937002/|date=October 31, 2020|access-date=December 19, 2020|website=Des Moines Register|language=en-US}}</ref> This was the only poll conducted in fall 2020 to show Trump ahead by more than two points, while Ernst's race was considered a toss-up.<ref>{{Cite web|first1=Aaron|last1=Bycoffe|first2=Ritchie|last2=King|first3=Dhrumil|last3=Mehta|date=June 28, 2018|title=Iowa President: general election Polls|url=https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/|archive-url=https://archive.today/20190411104052/https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/|url-status=dead|archive-date=April 11, 2019|access-date=December 19, 2020|website=FiveThirtyEight|language=en}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web|last=Silver|first=Nate|authorlink=Nate Silver|date=August 12, 2020|title=2020 Senate Election Forecast|url=https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/senate/|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200918120501/https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/senate/|url-status=dead|archive-date=September 18, 2020|access-date=December 19, 2020|website=FiveThirtyEight|language=en}}</ref> Trump won Iowa by 8.2 percentage points, while Ernst was re-elected by 6.6 points. In a post-election interview with ''Bloomberg'', Selzer suggested that her polls' consistently high performance may be related to making fewer assumptions about the electorate, saying "I assumed nothing. My data told me."<ref>{{Cite news|date=November 15, 2020|title=The Big Question: How Do You Make Polls More Accurate?|language=en|work=Bloomberg.com|url=https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-11-15/iowa-poll-got-it-right-in-2020-how-did-pollster-j-ann-selzer-do-it|access-date=December 19, 2020}}</ref>
====2024 presidential election==== Prior to the 2024 United States presidential election, Selzer & Co. released their final Iowa poll that had Kamala Harris leading Trump 47% to 44% in the state, markedly different from other polls that showed Trump with a significant lead.<ref>{{Cite news |last=Pfannenstiel |first=Brianne |date=November 2, 2024 |title=Iowa Poll: Kamala Harris leapfrogs Donald Trump to take lead near Election Day. Here's how |url=https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/02/iowa-poll-kamala-harris-leads-donald-trump-2024-presidential-race/75354033007/ |access-date=November 2, 2024 |work=Des Moines Register}}</ref> The poll was leaked ahead of its embargo, with Governor J. B. Pritzker of Illinois publicly discussing its results less than an hour before its scheduled release.<ref>{{Cite web |last=Talcott |first=Shelby |date=10 November 2024 |title=Gannett probes possible leak of bombshell Iowa poll |url=https://www.semafor.com/article/11/10/2024/gannett-probes-possible-leak-of-bombshell-iowa-poll |website=Semafor |language=en-US}}</ref> Trump criticized the accuracy of the poll. Selzer responded by saying the poll used the same methodology as in 2016 and 2020, and that, "It would not be in my best interest, or that of my clients—The ''Des Moines Register'' and Mediacom—to conjure fake numbers."<ref>{{Cite web |last=Reporter |first=Jasmine Laws Live News |date=2024-11-03 |title=Ann Selzer Responds to Iowa Poll Backlash |url=https://www.newsweek.com/ann-selzer-poll-iowa-trump-response-1979252 |access-date=2024-11-03 |website=Newsweek |language=en}}</ref>
Contrary to the poll, Trump won Iowa by a 13-point margin; the error of roughly 16 percentage points was by far the largest of any of Selzer's polls.<ref name = Reilly>{{Cite news|date=November 17, 2024|title=Top pollster Ann Selzer to retire after bombshell Iowa poll ended in huge miss|language=en|work=CNN|url=https://edition.cnn.com/2024/11/17/media/iowa-pollster-ann-selzer-retire-trump-harris/index.html|access-date=November 17, 2024|last = Reilly|first = Liam}}</ref> She pledged to review the data to see if she could explain the significant polling error.<ref name=":0">{{Cite web |last=Pfannenstiel |first=Brianne |date=November 5, 2024 |title=Pollster J. Ann Selzer: 'I'll be reviewing data' after Iowa Poll misses big Trump win |url=https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/05/pollster-j-ann-selzer-to-review-data-after-iowa-poll-misses-trump-win/76085598007/ |access-date=2024-11-08 |website=The Des Moines Register |language=en-US}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |last=Samuels |first=Brett |date=2024-11-06 |title=Donald Trump wins Iowa in 2024 presidential election |url=https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4959212-trump-wins-iowa-2024/ |access-date=2024-11-08 |website=The Hill |language=en-US}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |last=Fink |first=Jenni |date=November 6, 2024 |title=Donald Trump To Win Iowa, Networks Project |url=https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-wins-iowa-nbc-news-projects-1981032 |access-date=November 8, 2024 |website=Newsweek}}</ref> ''FiveThirtyEight'' hypothesized that Selzer's methodology, which declines to weight for educational attainment and partisan identification, may have led to the divergent result.<ref>{{Cite news|date=8 November 2024|title=2024 polls were accurate but still underestimated Trump|language=en|work=FiveThirtyEight|url=https://abcnews.go.com/538/2024-polls-accurate-underestimated-trump/story?id=115652118|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20241108212331/https://abcnews.go.com/538/2024-polls-accurate-underestimated-trump/story?id=115652118|url-status=dead|archive-date=November 8, 2024}}</ref> On November 17, 2024, Selzer announced her retirement from electoral polling, saying she had planned to do so before the 2024 election.<ref name = Reilly/>
Trump publicly accused her of "possible election fraud" and called for "an investigation" of her.<ref>{{Cite web |last=Morrison |first=Dan |date=2024-11-18 |title=Trump demands investigation of pollster who showed Iowa lead for Kamala Harris |url=https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/11/17/trump-investigation-ann-selzer-iowa-poll-kamala-harris/76389559007/ |website=USA TODAY |language=en-US}}</ref> On December 16, Trump said he would sue Selzer and the ''Des Moines Register'', saying their poll "was fraud, and it was election interference."<ref>{{Cite web |last=Kilgore |first=Ed |date=2024-12-16 |title=Trump Threatens to Sue Iowa Pollster Who Annoyed Him |url=https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/trump-threatens-to-sue-iowa-pollster-who-annoyed-him.html |access-date=2024-12-17 |website=Intelligencer |language=en}}</ref> Trump filed the threatened lawsuit against Selzer on December 16, 2024 in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Iowa.<ref>{{Cite web|last1=Impelli|first1=Matthew|last2=Jackson|first2=Jon|date=2024-12-17 |title=Donald Trump Sues Iowa Pollster Who Said He Trailed Harris: What We Know |url=https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-sues-iowa-pollster-who-had-him-trailing-what-we-know-2002212 |access-date=2024-12-17 |website=Newsweek |language=en}}</ref><ref>{{cite web |title=Trump v. Selzer, et al. |url=https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/25460096/president-trump-vs-dsm-registergannettann-selzer.pdf |website=E-File |publisher=Polk County Iowa District Court Filings |access-date=18 December 2024}}</ref><ref name=":1">{{Cite news |last=Vazquez |first=Maegan |date=22 February 2025 |title=Trump's lawsuit barred by the First Amendment, pollster's team argues |url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/02/22/ann-selzer-poll-trump/ |access-date=24 February 2025 |newspaper=The Washington Post}}</ref> On January 7, 2025, the Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression (FIRE) announced that it would defend Selzer in the lawsuit, calling the lawsuit "the very definition of a 'SLAPP' suit — a Strategic Lawsuit Against Public Participation."<ref>{{cite web |last=Fields |first=Ashleigh |date=2025-01-07 |title=Free speech legal group to defend Iowa pollster Selzer in Trump lawsuit |url=https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/5072101-free-speech-legal-group-to-defend-iowa-pollster-selzer-in-trump-lawsuit/ |access-date=2025-01-08 |website=The Hill |archive-url=https://archive.today/20250108051820/https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/5072101-free-speech-legal-group-to-defend-iowa-pollster-selzer-in-trump-lawsuit/ |archive-date=2025-01-08 |url-status=live}}</ref> On February 21, FIRE asked the Court to dismiss the suit, writing "'allegations about polls and news stories [the plaintiffs] dislike have nothing to do with fraud' and that Selzer's polling was protected under the First Amendment.<ref name=":1" /> After Iowa passed Anti-SLAPP legislation for federal cases in May, Trump asked the District Court to transfer the case to an Iowa state court in June but was refused. On June 30, Trump dropped the federal lawsuit and immediately refiled it in a state court.<ref>{{cite web |date=30 June 2025 |title=Trump drops lawsuit against Iowa pollster Ann Selzer and Des Moines Register newspaper|url=https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-lawsuit-iowa-poll-ann-selzer-des-moines-register-kamala-harris-rcna216078|website= NBC}}</ref>
On January 8, 2025, the Center for American Rights, filed a class action lawsuit in Polk County District Court on behalf of West Des Moines resident Dennis Donnelly and other ''Des Moines Register'' subscribers. The lawsuit alleges that Selzer and the paper defrauded the readers under Iowa’s Consumer Fraud Act by knowingly publishing inaccurate poll results.<ref>{{Cite web |last=Opsahl |first=Robin |date=2025-01-08 |title=Second lawsuit filed against Des Moines Register, Selzer over Iowa Poll • Iowa Capital Dispatch |url=https://iowacapitaldispatch.com/2025/01/08/second-lawsuit-filed-against-des-moines-register-selzer-over-iowa-poll/ |access-date=2025-01-30 |website=Iowa Capital Dispatch |language=en-US}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |last=Morris |first=William |title=Des Moines Register poll showing Harris leading Trump draws another suit alleging fraud |url=https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2025/01/08/second-suit-claims-fraud-des-moines-register-poll-showing-kamala-harris-leading-donald-trump/77515618007/ |access-date=2025-01-30 |website=The Des Moines Register |language=en-US}}</ref>
== Final pre-election Selzer & Company polls == {| class="wikitable sortable" ! Election || Democratic<br/ >candidate || Poll<br />D % || Actual<br />D % || Republican<br/ >candidate || Poll<br />R % || Actual<br />R % || Poll<br />margin{{efn|Calculated after rounding}} || Actual<br />margin{{efn|Calculated after rounding; excludes invalid write-in votes}} || Error || {{Refh}} |- | 1996 IA president || Bill Clinton || 46 || 50.3 || Bob Dole || 35 || 40.0 || {{party shading/Democratic}} data-sort-value="11"| D+11 || {{party shading/Democratic}} data-sort-value="10.4"| D+10.4 || {{party shading/Democratic}} data-sort-value="0.6"| D+0.6 || <ref name="DMR1996">{{cite news |last1=Glover |first1=Mike |title=Voter turnout key as Iowa races tighten |url=https://dailyiowan.lib.uiowa.edu/DI/1996/di1996-11-04.pdf |work=The Daily Iowan |agency=Associated Press |date=November 4, 1996}}</ref> |- | 1996 IA U.S. Senate || Tom Harkin || 46 || 51.8 || Jim Lightfoot || 38 || 46.7 || {{party shading/Democratic}} data-sort-value="8"| D+8 || {{party shading/Democratic}} data-sort-value="5.1"| D+5.1 || {{party shading/Democratic}} data-sort-value="2.9"| D+2.9 || <ref name="DMR1996"/> |- | 1998 IA governor || Tom Vilsack || 43 || 52.3 || Jim Lightfoot || 47 || 46.5 || {{party shading/Republican}} data-sort-value="-4"| R+4 || {{party shading/Democratic}} data-sort-value="5.8"| D+5.8 || {{party shading/Republican}} data-sort-value="-9.8"| R+9.8 || <ref name="FTE">{{cite web |title=FiveThirtyEight's Pollster Ratings Raw Polls File |url=https://raw.githubusercontent.com/fivethirtyeight/data/refs/heads/master/pollster-ratings/2023/raw-polls.csv |website=GitHub |publisher=FiveThirtyEight |access-date=November 4, 2024}}</ref> |- | 2000 IA president || Al Gore || 44 || 48.6 || George W. Bush || 42 || 48.3 || {{party shading/Democratic}} data-sort-value="2"| D+2 || {{party shading/Democratic}} data-sort-value="0.3"| D+0.3 || {{party shading/Democratic}} data-sort-value="1.7"| D+1.7 || <ref name="FTE"/> |- | 2002 IA U.S. Senate || Tom Harkin || 50 || 54.2 || Greg Ganske || 41 || 43.8 || {{party shading/Democratic}} data-sort-value="9"| D+9 || {{party shading/Democratic}} data-sort-value="10.4"| D+10.4 || {{party shading/Republican}} data-sort-value="-1.4"| R+1.4 || <ref name="FTE"/> |- | 2002 IA governor || Tom Vilsack || 52 || 52.7 || Doug Gross || 40 || 44.6 || {{party shading/Democratic}} data-sort-value="12"| D+12 || {{party shading/Democratic}} data-sort-value="8.2"| D+8.2 || {{party shading/Democratic}} data-sort-value="3.8"| D+3.8 || <ref name="FTE"/> |- | 2004 IA president || John Kerry || 48 || 49.3 || George W. Bush || 45 || 49.9 || {{party shading/Democratic}} data-sort-value="3"| D+3 || {{party shading/Republican}} data-sort-value="-0.7"| R+0.7 || {{party shading/Democratic}} data-sort-value="3.7"| D+3.7 || <ref name="FTE"/><ref name="pastDMR"/> |- | 2004 IN president || John Kerry || 37 || 39.3 || George W. Bush || 57 || 60.0 || {{party shading/Republican}} data-sort-value="-20"| R+20 || {{party shading/Republican}} data-sort-value="-20.7"| R+20.7 || {{party shading/Democratic}} data-sort-value="0.7"| D+0.7 || <ref name="FTE"/> |- | 2004 IN governor || Joseph Kernan || 42 || 45.5 || Mitch Daniels || 48 || 53.2 || {{party shading/Republican}} data-sort-value="-6"| R+6 || {{party shading/Republican}} data-sort-value="-7.7"| R+7.7 || {{party shading/Democratic}} data-sort-value="1.7"| D+1.7 || <ref name="FTE"/> |- | 2006 IA governor || Chet Culver || 52 || 54.1 || Jim Nussle || 43 || 44.4 || {{party shading/Democratic}} data-sort-value="9"| D+9 || {{party shading/Democratic}} data-sort-value="9.7"| D+9.7 || {{party shading/Republican}} data-sort-value="-0.7"| R+0.7 || <ref name="FTE"/> |- | 2006 IA-01 U.S. House || Bruce Braley || 56 || 55.1 || Mike Whalen || 35 || 43.3 || {{party shading/Democratic}} data-sort-value="21"| D+21 || {{party shading/Democratic}} data-sort-value="11.9"| D+11.9 || {{party shading/Democratic}} data-sort-value="9.2"| D+9.2 || <ref name="FTE"/> |- | 2006 IN-07 U.S. House || Julia Carson || 42 || 53.8 || Eric Dickerson || 45 || 46.2 || {{party shading/Republican}} data-sort-value="-3"| R+3 || {{party shading/Democratic}} data-sort-value="7.5"| D+7.5 || {{party shading/Republican}} data-sort-value="-10.5"| R+10.5 || <ref name="FTE"/> |- | 2006 MI U.S. Senate || Debbie Stabenow || 53 || 56.9 || Mike Bouchard || 34 || 41.3 || {{party shading/Democratic}} data-sort-value="19"| D+19 || {{party shading/Democratic}} data-sort-value="15.7"| D+15.7 || {{party shading/Democratic}} data-sort-value="3.4"| D+3.4 || <ref name="FTE"/> |- | 2006 MI governor || Jennifer Granholm || 54 || 56.4 || Dick DeVos || 41 || 42.3 || {{party shading/Democratic}} data-sort-value="13"| D+13 || {{party shading/Democratic}} data-sort-value="14.1"| D+14.1 || {{party shading/Republican}} data-sort-value="-1.1"| R+1.1 || <ref name="FTE"/> |- | 2008 IA president || Barack Obama || 54 || 54.2 || John McCain || 37 || 44.6 || {{party shading/Democratic}} data-sort-value="17"| D+17 || {{party shading/Democratic}} data-sort-value="9.6"| D+9.6 || {{party shading/Democratic}} data-sort-value="7.4"| D+7.4 || <ref name="FTE"/><ref name="pastDMR"/> |- | 2008 IA U.S. Senate || Tom Harkin || 57 || 62.7 || Christopher Reed || 31 || 37.3 || {{party shading/Democratic}} data-sort-value="26"| D+26 || {{party shading/Democratic}} data-sort-value="25.4"| D+25.4 || {{party shading/Democratic}} data-sort-value="0.6"| D+0.6 || <ref name="FTE"/> |- | 2008 IN president || Barack Obama || 46 || 50.0 || John McCain || 45 || 48.9 || {{party shading/Democratic}} data-sort-value="1"| D+1.0 || {{party shading/Democratic}} data-sort-value="1.0"| D+1.0 || {{party shading/Democratic}} data-sort-value="0.0"| D+0.0 ||<ref name="FTE"/> |- | 2008 IN governor || Jill Long Thompson || 36 || 40.0 || Mitch Daniels || 54 || 57.8 || {{party shading/Republican}} data-sort-value="-18"| R+18 || {{party shading/Republican}} data-sort-value="-17.8"| R+17.8 || {{party shading/Republican}} data-sort-value="-0.2"| R+0.2 || <ref name="FTE"/> |- | 2008 MI president || Barack Obama || 53 || 57.4 || John McCain || 37 || 41.0 || {{party shading/Democratic}} data-sort-value="16"| D+16 || {{party shading/Democratic}} data-sort-value="16.5"| D+16.5 || {{party shading/Republican}} data-sort-value="-0.5"| R+0.5 || <ref name="FTE"/><ref>{{cite news |title=Poll: Obama up by 16 points in Michigan |url=https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/2008/11/02/poll-obama-up-by-16-points-in-michigan/ |access-date=November 4, 2024 |work=San Diego Union-Tribune |date=November 2, 2008}}</ref> |- | 2008 MI U.S. Senate || Carl Levin || 53 || 62.7 || Jack Hoogendyk || 32 || 33.9 || {{party shading/Democratic}} data-sort-value="21"| D+21 || {{party shading/Democratic}} data-sort-value="28.8"| D+28.8 || {{party shading/Republican}} data-sort-value="-7.8"| R+7.8 || <ref name="FTE"/> |- | 2010 IA U.S. Senate || Roxanne Conlin || 30 || 33.3 || Chuck Grassley || 61 || 64.4 || {{party shading/Republican}} data-sort-value="-31"| R+31 || {{party shading/Republican}} data-sort-value="-31.1"| R+31.1 || {{party shading/Democratic}} data-sort-value="0.1"| D+0.1 || <ref name="FTE"/><ref name="DMR2010"/> |- | 2010 IA governor || Chet Culver || 38 || 43.3 || Terry Branstad || 50 || 52.9 || {{party shading/Republican}} data-sort-value="-12"| R+12 || {{party shading/Republican}} data-sort-value="-9.6"| R+9.6 || {{party shading/Republican}} data-sort-value="-2.4"| R+2.4 || <ref name="FTE"/><ref name="DMR2010">{{cite news |title=Register poll shows voters split over Supreme Court judges |url=https://www.ottumwacourier.com/centerville/register-poll-shows-voters-split-over-supreme-court-judges/article_42d11406-c7d9-50da-af98-f1660d1d9978.html |access-date=November 4, 2024 |work=Ottumwa Courier |agency=Associated Press |date=November 2, 2010}}</ref> |- | 2012 IA president || Barack Obama || 47 || 52.2 || Mitt Romney || 42 || 46.4 || {{party shading/Democratic}} data-sort-value="5"| D+5 || {{party shading/Democratic}} data-sort-value="5.8"| D+5.8 || {{party shading/Republican}} data-sort-value="-0.8"| R+0.8 || <ref name="FTE"/><ref name="pastDMR">{{cite news |last1=Smith |first1=Brian |title=How do past Iowa Poll results compare with presidential election results in Iowa? |url=https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/02/how-do-past-iowa-poll-results-compare-to-iowa-election-results/76018755007/ |access-date=November 4, 2024 |work=Des Moines Register |date=November 2, 2024}}</ref> |- | 2014 IA U.S. Senate || Bruce Braley || 44 || 43.8 || Joni Ernst || 51 || 52.2 || {{party shading/Republican}} data-sort-value="-7"| R+7 || {{party shading/Republican}} data-sort-value="-8.4"| R+8.4 || {{party shading/Democratic}} data-sort-value="1.4"| D+1.4 || <ref name="FTE"/><ref>{{cite news |last1=Jacobs |first1=Jennifer |title=Iowa Poll: Ernst takes 7-point lead |url=https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2014/11/01/iowa-poll-joni-ernst-leads-bruce-braley/18345157/ |access-date=November 4, 2024 |work=Des Moines Register |date=November 1, 2014}}</ref> |- | 2014 IA governor || Jack Hatch || 35 || 37.3 || Terry Branstad || 59 || 59.1 || {{party shading/Republican}} data-sort-value="-24"| R+24 || {{party shading/Republican}} data-sort-value="-21.7"| R+21.7 || {{party shading/Republican}} data-sort-value="-2.3"| R+2.3 || <ref name="FTE"/><ref>{{cite news |last1=Noble |first1=Jason |title=Iowa Poll: Branstad widens lead over Hatch |url=https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2014/11/01/iowa-poll-big-branstad-lead/18345321/ |access-date=November 4, 2024 |work=Des Moines Register |date=November 1, 2014}}</ref> |- | 2016 U.S. president || Hillary Clinton || 46 || 48.5 || Donald Trump || 43 || 46.4 || {{party shading/Democratic}} data-sort-value="3"| D+3 || {{party shading/Democratic}} data-sort-value="2.1"| D+2.1 || {{party shading/Democratic}} data-sort-value="0.9"| D+0.9 || <ref>{{cite web |title=Bloomberg Politics National Poll |url=https://assets.bwbx.io/documents/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/rklCDpOEK78Q/v0 |publisher=Bloomberg |access-date=November 4, 2024}}</ref> |- | 2016 FL president || Hillary Clinton || 45 || 47.8 || Donald Trump || 46 || 49.0 || {{party shading/Republican}} data-sort-value="-1"| R+1 || {{party shading/Republican}} data-sort-value="-1.2"| R+1.2 || {{party shading/Democratic}} data-sort-value="0.2"| D+0.2 || <ref name="BPFL">{{cite web |title=Bloomberg Politics Florida Poll |url=https://assets.bwbx.io/documents/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/rLiMdBxU.ddw/v0 |publisher=Bloomberg |access-date=November 4, 2024}}</ref> |- | 2016 FL U.S. Senate || Patrick Murphy || 41 || 44.3 || Marco Rubio || 51 || 52.0 || {{party shading/Republican}} data-sort-value="-10"| R+10 || {{party shading/Republican}} data-sort-value="-7.7"| R+7.7 || {{party shading/Republican}} data-sort-value="-2.3"| R+2.3 || <ref name="FTE"/><ref name="BPFL"/> |- | 2016 IA president || Hillary Clinton || 39 || 42.2 || Donald Trump || 46 || 51.8 || {{party shading/Republican}} data-sort-value="-7"| R+7 || {{party shading/Republican}} data-sort-value="-9.5"| R+9.5 || {{party shading/Democratic}} data-sort-value="2.5"| D+2.5 || <ref name="FTE"/><ref>{{cite news |last1=Noble |first1=Jason |title=Iowa Poll: Trump opens 7-point lead over Clinton |url=https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2016/11/05/iowa-poll-trump-opens-7-point-lead-over-clinton/93347134/ |access-date=November 4, 2024 |work=Des Moines Register |date=November 5, 2016}}</ref> |- | 2016 IA U.S. Senate || Patty Judge || 33 || 35.7 || Chuck Grassley || 56 || 60.2 || {{party shading/Republican}} data-sort-value="-23"| R+23 || {{party shading/Republican}} data-sort-value="-24.5"| R+24.5 || {{party shading/Democratic}} data-sort-value="1.5"| D+1.5 || <ref name="FTE"/><ref>{{cite news |last1=Petroski |first1=William |title=Iowa Poll: Grassley maintains double-digit lead over Judge |url=https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2016/11/05/chuck-grassley-patty-judge-iowa-poll/93293288/ |access-date=November 4, 2024 |work=Des Moines Register |date=November 5, 2016}}</ref> |- | 2018 IA governor || Fred Hubbell || 46 || 47.5 || Kim Reynolds || 44 || 50.3 || {{party shading/Democratic}} data-sort-value="2"| D+2 || {{party shading/Republican}} data-sort-value="-2.7"| R+2.7 || {{party shading/Democratic}} data-sort-value="4.7"| D+4.7 || <ref name="FTE"/><ref>{{cite news |last1=Pfannenstiel |first1=Brianne |title=Just days before election, Iowa Poll shows Fred Hubbell with 2-point lead over Kim Reynolds |url=https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2018/11/03/iowa-poll-governor-race-kim-reynolds-fred-hubbell-jake-porter-selzer-iowa-election-2018-medicaid/1871874002/ |access-date=November 4, 2024 |work=Des Moines Register |date=November 3, 2018}}</ref> |- | 2020 IA president || Joe Biden || 41 || 45.0 || Donald Trump || 48 || 53.2 || {{party shading/Republican}} data-sort-value="-7"| R+7 || {{party shading/Republican}} data-sort-value="-8.2"| R+8.2 || {{party shading/Democratic}} data-sort-value="1.2"| D+1.2 || <ref name="FTE"/><ref>{{cite news |last1=Pfannenstiel |first1=Brianne |title=Iowa Poll: Donald Trump takes over lead in Iowa as Joe Biden fades |url=https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2020/10/31/election-2020-iowa-poll-president-donald-trump-leads-joe-biden/6061937002/ |access-date=November 4, 2024 |work=Des Moines Register |date=October 31, 2020}}</ref> |- | 2020 IA U.S. Senate || Theresa Greenfield || 42 || 45.2 || Joni Ernst || 46 || 51.8 || {{party shading/Republican}} data-sort-value="-4"| R+4 || {{party shading/Republican}} data-sort-value="-6.6"| R+6.6 || {{party shading/Democratic}} data-sort-value="2.6"| D+2.6 || <ref name="FTE"/><ref>{{cite news |last1=Pfannenstiel |first1=Brianne |title=Iowa Poll: Republican Joni Ernst pulls ahead of Democrat Theresa Greenfield in closing days of U.S. Senate race |url=https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2020/10/31/election-2020-iowa-poll-greenfield-ernst-us-senate-race-voters/6055545002/ |access-date=November 4, 2024 |work=Des Moines Register |date=October 31, 2020}}</ref> |- | 2022 IA U.S. Senate || Michael Franken || 41 || 43.9 || Chuck Grassley || 53 || 56.1 || {{party shading/Republican}} data-sort-value="-12"| R+12 || {{party shading/Republican}} data-sort-value="-12.2"| R+12.2 || {{party shading/Democratic}} data-sort-value="0.2"| D+0.2 || <ref name="FTE"/><ref>{{cite news |last1=Pfannenstiel |first1=Brianne |last2=Gruber-Miller |first2=Stephen |title=Iowa Poll: Chuck Grassley widens lead over Mike Franken in US Senate race |url=https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2022/11/05/iowa-poll-senate-race-chuck-grassley-leads-mike-franken-election/69616642007/ |access-date=November 4, 2024 |work=Des Moines Register |date=November 5, 2022}}</ref> |- | 2022 IA governor || Deidre DeJear || 37 || 39.6 || Kim Reynolds || 54 || 58.1 || {{party shading/Republican}} data-sort-value="-17"| R+17 || {{party shading/Republican}} data-sort-value="-18.5"| R+18.5 || {{party shading/Democratic}} data-sort-value="1.5"| D+1.5 || <ref name="FTE"/><ref>{{cite news |last1=Richardson |first1=Ian |title=Iowa Poll: Gov. Kim Reynolds has a 17-point lead over Deidre DeJear in governor's race |url=https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2022/11/05/iowa-poll-governor-race-kim-reynolds-leads-deidre-dejear-election/69616814007/ |access-date=November 4, 2024 |work=Des Moines Register |date=November 5, 2022}}</ref> |- | 2024 IA president || Kamala Harris || 47 || 42.7 || Donald Trump || 44 || 55.9 || {{party shading/Democratic}} data-sort-value="3" | D+3 || {{party shading/Republican}} data-sort-value="13.2"| R+13.2 || {{party shading/Democratic}} data-sort-value="16.2"| D+16.2 || <ref>{{cite news |last1=Pfannenstiel |first1=Brianne |title=Iowa Poll: Kamala Harris leapfrogs Donald Trump to take lead near Election Day. Here's how |url=https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/02/iowa-poll-kamala-harris-leads-donald-trump-2024-presidential-race/75354033007/ |access-date=November 4, 2024 |work=The Des Moines Register |date=November 2, 2024}}</ref> |}
== Notes == {{notelist}}
==References== {{Reflist}}
== Further reading ==
{{refbegin}}
* {{Cite web |title=2011 Women Business Owner of the Year: J. Ann Selzer |work=Business Record |date=July 29, 2011 |url=https://businessrecord.com/Content/OUR-EVENTS/Upcoming-Business-Record-Events/Article/2011-Women-Business-Owner-of-the-Year-J-Ann-Selzer/153/758/53853 |language=en-us |access-date=August 4, 2019 }} * {{Cite web |last1=Chalian |first1=David |title=Ann Selzer, queen of the Iowa caucuses: For a day, the most powerful woman in American politics |work=The Ticket |date=December 31, 2011 |url=https://www.yahoo.com/news/blogs/ticket/ann-selzer-queen-iowa-caucuses-today-she-most-143004814.html |language=en-US |access-date=August 4, 2019 }} * {{Cite web |last1=Lee |first1=Deron |title=Iowa's Ann Selzer on what journalists need to know about polling |work=Columbia Journalism Review |date=November 17, 2015 |url=https://www.cjr.org/united_states_project/ann_selzer_iowa_poll_interview.php |language=en |access-date=August 4, 2019 }} * {{Cite web |last1=Prokop |first1=Andrew |title=The most respected Iowa pollster's final caucus poll is out. Here's what it says. |work=Vox |date=January 30, 2016 |url=https://www.vox.com/2016/1/30/10875956/iowa-caucus-polls-2016 |access-date=August 4, 2019 }} {{refend}}
==External links== *{{C-SPAN|1026690}} *[https://www.newsweek.com/who-ann-selzer-iowa-poll-kamala-harris-1979294 Who Is Ann Selzer? Pollster's Record as Iowa Poll Shows Kamala Harris Ahead]
{{Authority control}}
{{DEFAULTSORT:Selzer, Ann}} Category:1956 births Category:20th-century American women scientists Category:21st-century American women scientists Category:American political women Category:American women statisticians Category:Living people Category:People from Des Moines, Iowa Category:People from Topeka, Kansas Category:Pollsters Category:University of Iowa alumni Category:University of Kansas alumni Category:People from Rochester, Minnesota Category:Controversies of the 2024 United States presidential election Category:People associated with the 2024 United States presidential election Category:Women in Iowa politics Category:American women founders Category:American founders