{{Short description|Political movement for Scotland leaving the UK}} {{Use British English|date=February 2013}} {{Use dmy dates|date=April 2021}} [[File:Scotland Independence March, 28 March 2026 (23).jpg|thumb|Pro-Scottish independence march in [[Edinburgh]] in 2026|270x270px]] [[File:Scotland in the UK and Europe.svg|thumb|270x270px|Location of Scotland (dark green) – in Europe (green & dark grey) – in the United Kingdom (green)]]{{Politics of Scotland}}
'''Scottish independence''' ({{langx|gd|Neo-eisimeileachd na h-Alba}}; {{langx|sco|Scots unthirldom}})<ref>{{cite web |date=31 August 1993 |title=Inside Information |url=http://www.heraldscotland.com/sport/spl/aberdeen/inside-information-1.744230 |access-date=8 September 2014 |work=The Herald}}</ref> is a political movement which advocates for the restoration of [[Scotland]]'s status as a [[sovereign state]] [[Independence|independent]] from the [[United Kingdom]].<ref>{{cite web |date=9 December 2018 |title=Brexit: Scots prefer independence to no-deal, poll finds |url=https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/brexit-scots-prefer-independence-to-no-deal-poll-finds-192453 |access-date=12 December 2018 |work=The Scotsman}}</ref><ref>{{cite news|title=Sturgeon: Brexit chaos makes independence case stronger every day|url=https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/15/sturgeon-brexit-chaos-makes-independence-case-stronger-every-day|access-date=12 December 2018|newspaper=The Guardian|date=15 November 2018|last1=Brooks |first1=Libby}}</ref><ref>{{Cite news |date=11 October 2018 |title=Scottish nationalists want to take back control |url=https://www.economist.com/britain/2018/10/11/scottish-nationalists-want-to-take-back-control |url-access=subscription |url-status=live |archive-url=https://archive.today/20210430190610/https://www.economist.com/britain/2018/10/11/scottish-nationalists-want-to-take-back-control |archive-date=30 April 2021 |newspaper=The Economist}}</ref><ref>{{Cite news |last=Massie |first=Alex |date=15 December 2019 |title=Never mind Brexit – Boris Johnson's biggest battle is Scotland trying to take back control |url=https://www.thetimes.com/uk/scotland/article/never-mind-brexit-boris-johnsons-biggest-battle-is-scotland-trying-to-take-back-control-dvfhmsmbg |url-access=subscription |url-status=live |archive-url=https://archive.today/20211204044617/https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/never-mind-brexit-boris-johnsons-biggest-battle-is-scotland-trying-to-take-back-control-dvfhmsmbg |archive-date=4 December 2021 |work=The Times }}</ref>
Scotland [[Kingdom of Scotland|was an independent kingdom]] through the [[Middle Ages]], and fought [[Wars of Scottish Independence|wars to maintain its independence]] from the [[Kingdom of England]]. The two kingdoms were united in [[personal union]] in 1603 when, upon the death of [[Queen Elizabeth I]] of England, [[King James VI]] of Scotland also became James I of England. The kingdoms were united politically into one kingdom called [[Kingdom of Great Britain|Great Britain]] by the [[Acts of Union 1707]] during the reign of [[Anne, Queen of Great Britain|Queen Anne]].<ref>{{cite web |title=Union with England Act 1707 |url=https://www.legislation.gov.uk/aosp/1707/7/contents |website=British Government |access-date=12 August 2021}}</ref> This united the countries, ended the wars of independence and created relative peace. Political campaigns for Scottish self-government began in the 19th century, initially in the form of demands for [[home rule]] within the United Kingdom. Two referendums on [[devolution in the United Kingdom|devolution]] were held [[1979 Scottish devolution referendum|in 1979]] and [[1997 Scottish devolution referendum|in 1997]], and a devolved [[Scottish Parliament]] was established on 1 July 1999.
The pro-independence [[Scottish National Party]] (SNP) first became the governing party of the devolved parliament following the [[2007 Scottish Parliament election]], and it won an outright majority of seats at the [[2011 Scottish Parliament election]]. This led to [[Edinburgh Agreement (2012)|an agreement]] between the [[Scottish Government|Scottish]] and [[British government]]s to hold the [[2014 Scottish independence referendum]]. Voters were asked: "Should Scotland be an independent country?"<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.scotreferendum.com/information/|title=Scotland's Referendum 2014 - Background|access-date=8 September 2014}}</ref> 44.7 percent answered "Yes" and 55.3 per cent answered "No". There was a record [[voter turnout]] of 85 per cent.<ref name="No"/><ref name="Now">{{cite news|title=Referendum results: Turnout a record high as Scots vote No to independence|url=http://www.scotlandnow.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/referendum-results-turnout-record-high-4286461|access-date=20 September 2014|work=Scotland Now|date=19 September 2014|archive-date=11 April 2020|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200411043734/http://www.scotlandnow.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/referendum-results-turnout-record-high-4286461|url-status=dead}}</ref>
A [[Proposed second Scottish independence referendum|second referendum on independence]] has been proposed, particularly since the UK [[Brexit|voted to leave]] the [[European Union]] in the [[2016 United Kingdom European Union membership referendum|June 2016 membership referendum]] and since pro-independence parties increased their majority at the [[2021 Scottish Parliament election]]. In June 2022, [[Nicola Sturgeon]], the [[First Minister of Scotland|first minister of Scotland]] and the [[leader of the SNP]], proposed the date of 19 October 2023 for a new independence referendum, subject to confirmation of its legality and [[constitutionality]].<ref>{{Cite web |last=Sturgeon |first=Nicola |date=2022-06-28 |title=Nicola Sturgeon's full statement announcing the 2023 independence referendum |url=https://www.snp.org/nicola-sturgeons-full-statement-announcing-the-2023-independence-referendum/ |access-date=2022-06-28 |website=Scottish National Party |language=en-US}}</ref> In November 2022 the [[Supreme Court of the United Kingdom]] ruled that the Scottish Parliament did not have the power to legislate for a second referendum.<ref>{{Cite news |date=23 November 2022 |title=Scottish independence: Will there be a second referendum? |work=[[BBC]] |url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-50813510 |access-date=27 November 2022}}</ref>
==History== ===Kingdom of Scotland=== {{Main|Kingdom of Scotland}}
Scotland emerged as an independent [[polity]] during the [[Early Middle Ages]] with some historians dating its foundation from the reign of [[Kenneth MacAlpin]] in 843.<ref name = "Marr10">{{harv|Marr|2013|p=10}}</ref>{{efn|Writing in 1992, [[Andrew Marr]] dated the formation of the Kingdom of Scotland at 1034, with the reign of [[Duncan I of Scotland|Duncan I]].}} The level of independence of the Scottish kingdom was fought over by the [[List of Scottish monarchs|Scottish kings]] and by the [[Normans|Norman]] and [[Angevin Empire|Angevin]] rulers of England who petitioned the [[Bishop of Rome|pope]] in Rome and other foreign rulers.<ref name = "Marr10" />
A watershed in the Scottish kingdom's history was a succession crisis that erupted in 1290 when [[Edward I of England]] claimed the right of appointment to the Scottish throne. The [[Auld Alliance]] of Scotland and France against English interests was first invoked at that time and remained active through to the 16th century. The [[Wars of Scottish Independence]] ended in a renewed kingdom under [[Robert the Bruce]] (crowned 1306), whose grandson [[Robert II of Scotland]] was the first Scottish king of the [[House of Stuart]].
===Union=== [[File:Houghton STC 13011 - Hayward, Treatise.jpg|thumb|''A treatise of union of the two realmes of England and Scotland'' by the English historian [[John Hayward (historian)|Sir John Hayward]], 1604]]
From 1603 Scotland and England shared the same monarch in a [[personal union]] when [[James VI and I|James VI of Scotland]] was declared King of England and Scotland in what was known as the [[Union of the Crowns]]. After [[James II of England|James II and VII]] was [[Glorious Revolution|deposed in 1688]] amid Catholic-Protestant disputes, and as the line of Protestant Stuarts showed signs of failing (as indeed occurred in 1714), English fears that Scotland would select a different monarch, potentially causing conflict within Great Britain, and the bankruptcy of many Scottish nobles through the [[Darien scheme]] led to the formal union of the two kingdoms in 1707, with the [[Treaty of Union]] and subsequent [[Act of Union 1707|Acts of Union]], to form the [[Kingdom of Great Britain]]. Scottish [[Jacobitism|Jacobite]] resistance to the union, led by descendants of James II and VII including [[Bonnie Prince Charlie]], continued until 1746.
The [[United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland]] was formed by the [[Acts of Union 1800]], which united the Kingdom of Great Britain and the [[Kingdom of Ireland]]. Following the [[Irish War of Independence]] (1919–21) and the [[Anglo-Irish Treaty]] that ended the war, Ireland was [[Partition of Ireland|partitioned]] into two states: [[Southern Ireland (1921–22)|Southern Ireland]], which opted to become independent (and is now known as Republic of Ireland), and [[Northern Ireland]], which – given its geographical extent which tended to ensure a Unionist majority – chose to remain within the United Kingdom.
===Home rule movement=== {{Main|Scottish Assembly}}
The "Home Rule" movement for a Scottish Assembly was first taken up in 1853 by the [[National Association for the Vindication of Scottish Rights]], a body close to the [[Conservative Party (UK)|Conservative Party]]. A key element in this movement was the comparison with Ireland. The original movement broadened its political appeal and soon began to receive [[Liberal Party (UK)|Liberal Party]] backing.<ref name=bbchistory>{{cite web |url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/special/politics97/devolution/scotland/briefing/history.shtml |title=Scottish Referendums |publisher=BBC |access-date=11 June 2007}}</ref>{{failed verification|date=May 2016}} In 1885, the post of [[Secretary for Scotland]] and the [[Scottish Office]] were re-established to promote Scotland's interests and express its concerns to the UK Parliament. In 1886, however, Liberal Prime Minister [[William Ewart Gladstone]] introduced the [[Irish Government Bill 1886|Irish Home Rule Bill]]. It was not regarded as an immediate constitutional priority however, particularly when the Irish Home Rule Bill was defeated in the [[House of Commons of the United Kingdom|House of Commons]].
Immediately before the [[First World War]], the [[Liberal Government 1905–15|Liberal Government]] led by [[H. H. Asquith]] supported the concept of "Home Rule all round", whereby Scottish home rule would follow the Irish home rule proposed in the [[Government of Ireland Act 1914]].<ref name = "Marr1">{{harv|Marr|2013|p=1}}</ref> Asquith believed that there was an iniquity in that the component parts of the United Kingdom could come together to act together in common purposes, but those components could not deal with internal matters that did not require consent across the UK.<ref name = "Marr1"/> This was not a nationalist philosophy, but instead Asquith was acting in the belief that federalism was the "true basis of union" and that centralising power in Westminster was a political blunder.<ref name = "Marr2">{{harv|Marr|2013|p=2}}</ref> A Scottish Home Rule bill was first presented to Parliament in 1913, but its progress was soon ended as Parliament focused on emergency measures necessitated by the First World War.<ref name = "Marr2"/>
Unlike Ireland, which rebelled in the [[Easter Rising]] and fought a [[Irish War of Independence|War of Independence]], Scotland did not resist central rule.<ref name = "Marr2"/> There was, however, a persistent demand for Scottish home rule.<ref name = "Marr2"/> The Scottish Office was relocated to [[St Andrew's House]] in Edinburgh during the 1930s.<ref name=bbchistory /><ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.skyminds.net/politics/scottish-politics/scottish-home-rule/ |title=Scottish Home Rule |publisher=Skyminds.net |access-date=6 April 2009|date=6 July 2007 }}</ref> The [[Scottish Covenant]] was a petition to the UK Government asking for home rule. It was first proposed in 1930 by [[John MacCormick]] and formally written in 1949. The petition "was eventually signed by two million people"<ref name="1999BBC">{{cite news| url=https://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/events/scotland_99/the_scottish_parliament/306850.stm |publisher=BBC |work=BBC News |title=Devolution's swings and roundabouts |date=7 April 1999 |access-date=7 January 2014}}</ref> (the population of Scotland was recorded as 5,100,000 in the [[Census in the United Kingdom|1951 UK Census]]<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.visionofbritain.org.uk/text/chap_page.jsp?t_id=SRC_P&c_id=3&cpub_id=S1951PRE&show=DB |title=1951 Census: Preliminary Report | |publisher=Vision of Britain |date=8 April 1951 |access-date=18 October 2013}}</ref>). The covenant was ignored by the main political parties.<ref name="1999BBC" /> In 1950 the [[Stone of Scone|Stone of Destiny]] was removed from Westminster Abbey by a group of Scottish nationalist students.
The question of full independence, or the less controversial [[home rule]], did not re-enter the political mainstream until 1960, after the famous [[Wind of Change (speech)|Wind of Change]] speech by Conservative Prime Minister [[Harold Macmillan]]. This speech marked the start of a rapid [[decolonisation]] in Africa and the end of the [[British Empire]]. The UK had already suffered the international humiliation of the 1956 [[Suez Crisis]], which showed that it was no longer the superpower it had been before [[World War II]]. For many in Scotland, this served to undermine one of the principal [[wikt:raison d'être|raisons d'être]] for the United Kingdom and also symbolised the end of popular [[imperialism]] and the Imperial unity that had united the then-prominent [[Unionist Party (Scotland)|Scottish Unionist Party]]. The Unionist Party subsequently suffered a steady decline in support.<ref>{{cite news|last=Gilson |first=Mike |url=http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/come-and-join-great-debate-on-nation-s-past-present-and-future-1-678357 |title=Come and join great debate on nation's past, present and future |work=The Scotsman |date=16 January 2007|access-date=17 October 2015 |location=Edinburgh}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web|url=http://www.tomorrowproject.net/pub/1__GLIMPSES/Individuals__identity_and_values/-138.html|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20070127214434/http://www.tomorrowproject.net/pub/1__GLIMPSES/Individuals__identity_and_values/-138.html|url-status=dead|title=National identities > The story so far|archive-date=27 January 2007}}</ref>
===1979 First devolution referendum=== {{main|1979 Scottish devolution referendum}}
The [[Scottish National Party]] (SNP) won their second-ever seat in the House of Commons in 1967, when [[Winnie Ewing]] was the unexpected winner of the [[1967 Hamilton by-election]]. The seat was previously a safe Labour Party seat, and this victory brought the SNP to national prominence, leading to [[Edward Heath]]'s 1968 [[Declaration of Perth]] and the establishment of the [[Royal Commission on the Constitution (United Kingdom)|Kilbrandon Commission]].<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/special/politics97/devolution/scotland/briefing/c20scot.shtml |title=Scottish Referendums |publisher=BBC |date=30 November 1990 |access-date=6 April 2009}}</ref> The discovery of [[North Sea oil]] off the east coast of Scotland in 1970 further invigorated the debate over Scottish independence.<ref name=bbchistory2>{{cite web |url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/special/politics97/devolution/scotland/briefing/c20scot.shtml |title= The Devolution Debate This Century |publisher=BBC |access-date=11 June 2007}}</ref> The SNP organised a hugely successful campaign entitled "[[It's Scotland's oil]]", emphasising how the discovery of oil could benefit Scotland's struggling [[Deindustrialization|deindustrialising]] economy and its populace.<ref name=McCrone>{{cite news |url=https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/this-britain/how-black-gold-was-hijacked-north-sea-oil-and-the-betrayal-of-scotland-518697.html |title=How black gold was hijacked: North sea oil and the betrayal of Scotland |work=The Independent |date= 10 June 2007|access-date=17 October 2015 | location=London | first1=Ben | last1=Russell | first2=Paul | last2=Kelbie}}</ref> At the [[February 1974 United Kingdom general election|February 1974 general election]], seven SNP MPs were elected. The general election resulted in a hung parliament, so Prime Minister [[Harold Wilson]] called a second election for [[October 1974 United Kingdom general election|October 1974]], when the SNP performed even better than in February, winning 11 seats and obtaining over 30% of the total vote in Scotland.<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.psr.keele.ac.uk/area/uk/ge74b/seats74b.htm |title= Regional distribution of seats and percentage vote |publisher=psr.keele.ac.uk |access-date=21 June 2007}}</ref>
In January 1974, the Conservative government had commissioned the [[McCrone report]], written by Professor Gavin McCrone, a leading government economist, to report on the viability of an independent Scotland. He concluded that oil would have given an independent Scotland one of the strongest currencies in Europe. The report went on to say that officials advised government ministers on how to take "the wind out of the SNP sails". A common myth regarding the report is that when handed over to the incoming Labour government and classified as secret because of Labour fears over the surge in Scottish National Party popularity, the document came to light only in 2005, when the SNP obtained the report under the [[Freedom of Information Act 2000]].<ref>{{cite news|url=https://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/4238744.stm|title=Papers reveal oil fears over SNP|publisher=BBC|date=12 September 2005|access-date=9 December 2009}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web|url=http://www.oilofscotland.org/mccronereport.pdf|title=Scottish Economic Planning Department}}</ref> McCrone himself has rejected this claim.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/columnists/brian-wilson-heres-the-real-story-about-the-mccrone-report-84854|title=Brian Wilson: Here's the real story about the McCrone 'report'|date=9 March 2019|website=The Scotsman}}</ref>
The [[Labour Party (UK)|Labour Party]], led by Harold Wilson, won the October 1974 general election with the very narrow majority of only three seats. Following their election to Parliament, the SNP MPs pressed for the creation of a Scottish Assembly: a viewpoint which was given added credibility by the conclusions of the Kilbrandon Commission. However, opponents demanded that a referendum be held on the issue. Although the Labour Party and the Scottish National Party both officially supported [[Devolution in the United Kingdom|devolution]], support was split in both parties. Labour was divided between those who favoured devolution and those who wanted to maintain a full central Westminster government. In the SNP, there was division between those who saw devolution as a stepping stone to independence and those who feared it might detract from that ultimate goal.<ref name=bbchistory2 /> The resignation of Harold Wilson from office in 1976 brought [[James Callaghan]] to power, but his small majority was eroded by several by-election losses, and the government became increasingly unpopular. Deals were made with the SNP and [[Plaid Cymru]] to hold referendums on devolution in exchange for their support, helping to prolong the government's life.
The result of the referendum in Scotland was a narrow majority in favour of devolution (52% to 48%),<ref name=bbchistory2 /> but a condition of the referendum was that 40% of the total electorate should vote in favour in order to make it valid. But the turnout was only 63.6%, so only 32.9% of the electorate voted "Yes". The [[Scotland Act 1978]] was consequently repealed in March 1979 by a vote of 301–206 in Parliament. In the wake of the referendum, the supporters of the bill conducted a protest campaign under the slogan "Scotland said yes". They said that the 40% rule was undemocratic and that the referendum results justified the establishment of the assembly. Campaigners for a "No" vote countered that voters had been told before the referendum that failing to vote was as good as a "No".<ref>{{cite web |work=[[House of Commons of the United Kingdom]] |url=https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm199596/cmhansrd/vo960426/debtext/60426-18.htm |title=Hansard record of 26 April 1996 : Column 735 |publisher=[[Hansard]] |date=26 April 1996 |access-date=6 April 2009}}</ref> It was therefore incorrect to conclude that the relatively low turnout was entirely due to [[Voter fatigue|voter apathy]].
In protest, the SNP withdrew their support from the government. A [[motion of no confidence]] was then tabled by the Conservatives and supported by the SNP, the Liberals and [[Ulster Unionist Party|Ulster Unionists]]. It passed by one vote on 28 March 1979, forcing the [[1979 United Kingdom general election|May 1979 general election]], which was won by the Conservatives led by [[Margaret Thatcher]]. Prime Minister Callaghan described the decision of the SNP to bring down the Labour government as "[[turkeys voting for Christmas]]".<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/election97/background/pastelec/ge79.htm |title=BBC report on 1979 election |publisher=BBC |date=3 May 1979 |access-date=6 April 2009 |archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20050515202157/http://www.bbc.co.uk/election97/background/pastelec/ge79.htm |archive-date = 15 May 2005}}</ref><ref>''Hansard'', House of Commons, 5th series, vol. 965, col. 471.</ref> The SNP group was reduced from 11 MPs to 2 at the 1979 general election, while devolution was opposed by the Conservative governments led by Margaret Thatcher and [[John Major]].
===1997 Second devolution referendum=== {{main|1997 Scottish devolution referendum}}
{{stack|[[File:Debating chamber, Scottish Parliament (31-05-2006).jpg|thumb|upright=1.3|The [[Debating]] chamber of the [[Scottish Parliament]], commonly known as Holyrood.]]}} Supporters of Scottish independence continued to hold mixed views on the [[Scottish Assembly|Home Rule]] movement, which included many supporters of union who wanted [[devolution]] within the framework of the United Kingdom. Some saw it as a stepping stone to independence, while others wanted to go straight for independence.<ref>{{cite news |url=http://www.scotsman.com/news/snp-should-return-to-the-honest-argument-on-independence-1-662274 |title= SNP should return to the honest argument on independence |work=The Scotsman |date= 23 August 2003|access-date=17 October 2015 |location=Edinburgh |first=Campbell |last=Martin}}</ref>
In the years of the Conservative government after 1979, the [[Campaign for a Scottish Assembly]] was established, eventually publishing the [[Claim of Right 1989]]. This led to the [[Scottish Constitutional Convention]]. The convention promoted consensus on devolution on a cross-party basis, though the Conservative Party refused to co-operate and the Scottish National Party withdrew from the discussions when it became clear that the convention was unwilling to discuss Scottish independence as a constitutional option.<ref name=bbchistory2 /> Arguments against devolution and the Scottish Parliament, levelled mainly by the Conservative Party, were that the Parliament would create a "slippery slope" to Scottish independence and provide the pro-independence Scottish National Party with a route to government.<ref name="Devolution">{{cite news |url=http://www.economist.com/research/backgrounders/displaystory.cfm?story_id=326221 |title=Breaking the Old Place up |newspaper=The Economist|date=4 November 1999 |access-date=14 October 2006}}</ref> Prime Minister [[John Major]] campaigned during the [[1997 United Kingdom general election|1997 general election]] on the slogan "72 hours to save the union". His party ultimately suffered the worst electoral defeat in 91 years.<ref name="Major">{{cite web |url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/special/politics97/background/pastelec/ge97.shtml |title=Politics 97 | date=September 1997 |publisher=BBC |access-date=14 October 2006}}</ref>
The Labour Party won the 1997 general election in a landslide, and [[Donald Dewar]] as [[Secretary of State for Scotland]] agreed to the proposals for a [[Scottish Parliament]]. A referendum was held in September and 74.3% of those who voted approved the devolution plan (44.87% of the electorate).<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/electoral_commission_pdf_file/0015/13272/TheScottishParliament_18312-6142__S__.pdf |title=Scottish Parliament Factsheet 2003 |publisher=The Electoral Commission |access-date=16 December 2009 |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120806181555/http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/electoral_commission_pdf_file/0015/13272/TheScottishParliament_18312-6142__S__.pdf |archive-date=6 August 2012}}</ref> The [[Parliament of the United Kingdom]] subsequently approved the [[Scotland Act 1998]] which created an elected Scottish Parliament with control over most domestic policy.<ref name=bbchistory2 /> In May 1999, Scotland held its [[1999 Scottish Parliament election|first election]] for a devolved parliament, and in July 1999, the Scottish Parliament held session for the first time since the previous parliament had been adjourned in 1707, after a gap of 292 years. Donald Dewar of the Labour Party subsequently became the [[First Minister of Scotland]], while the Scottish National Party became the main opposition party. The egalitarian song "[[A Man's A Man for A' That]]", by [[Robert Burns]], was performed at the opening ceremony.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/special_report/1999/06/99/scottish_parliament_opening/376512.stm |title=In tune with the people |website=BBC News |date=1 July 1999 |access-date=31 January 2021}}</ref>
The Scottish Parliament is a [[unicameral]] legislature comprising 129 [[Member of the Scottish Parliament|members]]. 73 members (57 pc) represent individual [[Scottish Parliament constituencies and electoral regions|constituencies]] and are elected on a [[first past the post]] system. 56 members (43 pc) are elected in eight different electoral regions by the [[Additional-member system]]. Members serve for a four-year term. The monarch appoints one [[Member of the Scottish Parliament]], on the nomination of the Parliament, to be [[First Minister of Scotland|First Minister]], with the convention being that the leader of the party with the largest number of seats is appointed First Minister, although any member who can command the confidence of a majority of the chamber could conceivably be appointed First Minister. All other Ministers are appointed and dismissed by the First Minister, and together they make up the [[Scottish Government]], the executive arm of government.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.scotland.gov.uk/About/Ministers|title=About Scottish Ministers|access-date=8 September 2014|archive-date=19 November 2013|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20131119081340/http://www.scotland.gov.uk/About/Ministers|url-status=dead}}</ref>
The Scottish Parliament has [[legislative]] authority for all non-[[Devolved, reserved and excepted matters|reserved matters]] relating to Scotland, and has a limited power to vary income tax, nicknamed the [[Tartan Tax]], a power it did not exercise and which was later replaced by wider tax-varying powers. The Scottish Parliament can refer devolved matters back to Westminster to be considered as part of United Kingdom-wide legislation by passing a [[Legislative consent motion]] if United Kingdom-wide legislation is considered to be more appropriate for certain issues. The programmes of legislation enacted by the Scottish Parliament since 1999 have seen a divergence in the provision of [[public services]] compared to the rest of the United Kingdom. For instance, the costs of a university education, and care services for the elderly are free at point of use in Scotland, while fees are paid in the rest of the UK. Scotland was the first country in the UK to ban smoking in enclosed public places in March 2006.<ref>BBC Scotland News Online "[https://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/4845260.stm Scotland begins pub smoking ban]", ''BBC Scotland News'', 26 March 2006. Retrieved 17 July 2006.</ref>
===2014 independence referendum=== {{main|2014 Scottish independence referendum}}
[[File:Scottish independence importance graph 2011.png|thumb|right|300px|Survey of the importance of holding a referendum, carried out by the [[BBC]] in April 2011.]] [[File:Scotland Independence Referendum Result 2014.png|thumb|300px|Referendum result]]
In its manifesto for the [[2007 Scottish Parliament election]], the [[Scottish National Party]] (SNP) pledged to hold an independence [[referendum]] by 2010.<ref>{{cite news |url=https://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/6548717.stm |title=At-a-glance: SNP manifesto |work=BBC News |publisher=BBC |date=12 April 2007 }}</ref><ref>{{cite news|url=https://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/12_04_07_snpmanifesto.pdf |title=SNP Manifesto (PDF)|access-date=19 January 2012 |work=BBC News}}</ref> After winning the election,<ref>{{cite news |url=https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2007/may/04/scotland.devolution |title= SNP wins historic victory |work=The Guardian |date= 4 May 2007|access-date=20 June 2007 | location=London | first=Patrick | last=Wintour}}</ref> the SNP-controlled Scottish Government published a [[white paper]] entitled "[[Choosing Scotland's Future]]", which outlined options for the future of Scotland, including independence.<ref>{{cite news |url=https://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/6944934.stm |title=SNP outlines independence plans |work=[[BBC News]] |publisher=BBC |date=14 August 2007 }}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.scotland.gov.uk/topics/a-national-conversation|title=Scotland's Future: A National Conversation|access-date=8 September 2014|date=14 August 2008}}</ref> Scottish Labour, the [[Scottish Conservatives]] and [[Scottish Liberal Democrats]] opposed a referendum offering independence as an option. Prime Minister [[Gordon Brown]] also publicly attacked the independence option.<ref>{{cite news|url=https://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/6182762.stm |title=Scots split would harm UK – Brown |work=BBC News |date=25 November 2006 |access-date=6 April 2009}}</ref> The three main parties opposed to independence instead formed a [[Commission on Scottish Devolution]], chaired by [[Kenneth Calman]].<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.commissiononscottishdevolution.org.uk/ |title=Commission on Scottish Devolution |publisher=Commission on Scottish Devolution |access-date=6 April 2009}}</ref><ref>{{cite news|url=https://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/7371693.stm |title=Scotland | Devolution body members announced |work=BBC News |date=28 April 2008 |access-date=6 April 2009}}</ref> This reviewed devolution and considered all constitutional options apart from independence.<ref>[http://www.theherald.co.uk/news/news/display.var.2231446.0.Calman_devolution_commission_revealed.php Calman devolution commission revealed] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080720151006/http://www.theherald.co.uk/news/news/display.var.2231446.0.Calman_devolution_commission_revealed.php |date=20 July 2008 }}, ''[[The Herald (Glasgow)|The Herald]]'', 28 April 2008.</ref> In August 2009, the Scottish Government announced that the [[Referendum (Scotland) Bill, 2010]], which would detail the question and conduct of a possible referendum on the issue of independence, would be part of its legislative programme for 2009–10. The Bill was not expected to be passed, because of the SNP's status as a minority government and the opposition of all other major parties in Parliament.<ref name=ReferendumBill2010>{{cite web |url=http://www.scotland.gov.uk/About/programme-for-government/2009-10/summary-of-bills/referendum-bill |title=Referendum Bill |publisher=[[Scottish Government]] |work=Official website, About > Programme for Government > 2009–10 > Summaries of Bills > Referendum Bill |date=2 September 2009 |access-date=10 September 2009 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110607203632/http://www.scotland.gov.uk/About/programme-for-government/2009-10/summary-of-bills/referendum-bill |archive-date=7 June 2011 |url-status=dead}}</ref><ref name=Times3Sep09>{{cite news |url=http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/scotland/article6820542.ece |title=Salmond to push ahead with referendum Bill |work=The Times |date=3 September 2009 |access-date=10 September 2009 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100531170941/http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/scotland/article6820542.ece |archive-date=31 May 2010 |location=London |first=Angus |last=MacLeod |url-status=dead}}</ref> In September 2010, the Scottish Government announced that no referendum would occur before the 2011 Scottish Parliament election.<ref>{{cite news| url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-11196967 | work=BBC News | title=Scottish independence plan 'an election issue' | date=6 September 2010}}</ref>
The SNP won an overall majority in the Scottish Parliament at the [[2011 Scottish Parliament election|2011 Scottish election]].<ref>{{cite news| url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-13305522 | work=BBC News | title=Scottish election: SNP wins election | date=6 May 2011}}</ref><ref>{{cite news |last=Black |first=Andrew |title=Scotland's 129 MSPs sworn in after SNP win|url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-13351212|work=BBC News |publisher=BBC |access-date=26 June 2011|date=11 May 2011}}</ref> First Minister [[Alex Salmond]] stated his desire to hold a referendum "in the second half of the parliament", which would place it in 2014 or 2015.<ref>{{cite news|last=Gardham|first=Magnus|title=Holyrood election 2011: Alex Salmond: Referendum on Scottish independence by 2015|url=http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics-news/2011/05/02/alex-salmond-referendum-on-scottish-independence-by-2015-86908-23102061/|access-date=3 August 2011|newspaper=Daily Record|date=2 May 2011}}</ref> In January 2012, the UK Government offered to provide the Scottish Parliament with the specific powers to hold a referendum, providing it was "fair, legal and decisive".<ref name = "contrary">{{cite news|url=http://www.thecourier.co.uk/news/politics/advocate-general-says-snp-s-referendum-plans-would-be-contrary-to-the-rule-of-law-1.49938|title=Advocate General says SNP's referendum plans would be 'contrary to the rule of law'|work=The Courier|publisher=DC Thomson|first=David|last=Clegg|date=17 January 2012|access-date=9 January 2014}}</ref><ref name = "chaos">{{cite news|url=http://www.thecourier.co.uk/news/politics/independence-referendum-scotland-facing-constitutional-chaos-1.49754|title=Independence referendum: Scotland facing constitutional chaos|work=The Courier|publisher=DC Thomson |first=David |last=Clegg |date=11 January 2012|access-date=9 January 2014}}</ref> Negotiations continued between the two governments until October 2012, when the [[Edinburgh Agreement (2012)|Edinburgh Agreement]] was reached.<ref name = "timeline">{{cite news |url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-19907675 |title=Timeline: Scottish independence referendum |work=BBC News |publisher=BBC |date=15 October 2012 |access-date=15 October 2012}}</ref> The Scottish Independence Referendum (Franchise) Act 2013 was passed by the Scottish Parliament on 27 June 2013 and received Royal Assent on 7 August 2013.<ref>{{UK-LEG|title=Scottish Independence Referendum (Franchise) Act 2013}}</ref> On 15 November 2013, the Scottish Government published ''[[Scotland's Future]]'', a 670-page white paper laying out the case for independence and the means through which Scotland might become an independent country.<ref name="SF Reaction">{{cite news|url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-25088251|title=Scottish independence: Referendum White Paper unveiled|date=26 November 2013|access-date=5 January 2014|work=BBC News}}</ref>
[[File:David Cameron in Edinburgh (16342998225).jpg|thumb|right|UK Prime Minister David Cameron in Edinburgh to discuss the new powers that Scotland would obtain through the [[Scotland Act 2016]]]]
Following a protracted period of negotiation, a public debate between Salmond and [[Better Together (campaign)|Better Together]] leader [[Alistair Darling]] was arranged.<ref>{{cite news |url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-28238151 |title=Scottish independence: STV confirm Darling and Salmond TV debate date |work=BBC News |publisher=BBC |date=9 July 2014 |access-date=9 July 2014}}</ref> On the morning before the televised debate, a joint statement, pledging greater devolved powers to Scotland in the event of a "No" vote, was signed by Prime Minister [[David Cameron]] (Leader of the Conservative Party), Deputy Prime Minister [[Nick Clegg]] (Leader of the Liberal Democrats), and Leader of the Opposition [[Ed Miliband]] (Leader of the Labour Party).<ref name="Sev">{{cite news|author1=Severin Carrell|title=Scotland promised extra tax and legal powers for referendum no vote|url=https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/aug/05/scotland-promised-new-powers-no-vote-referendum?CMP=EMCNEWEML6619I2|access-date=5 August 2014|work=The Guardian|date=5 August 2014}}</ref>
The BBC website announced the final result of the referendum at 06:24 on 19 September 2014: the "No" vote prevailed with 55% (2,001,926) of the votes from an overall voter turnout of 84.5%. Chief counting officer Mary Pitcaithly stated: "It is clear that the majority of people voting have voted No to the referendum question." The "Yes" vote received 45% (1,617,989) support—the winning total needed was 1,852,828. Results were compiled from 32 council areas, with Glasgow backing independence—voting 53.5% "Yes" to 46.5% "No" (turnout in the area was 75%)—and Edinburgh voting against independence by 61% to 39% (turnout in the area was 84%). Darling stated in his post-result speech, "The silent have spoken", while Salmond stated, "I accept the verdict of the people, and I call on all of Scotland to follow suit in accepting the democratic verdict".<ref name="No">{{cite news|title=Scottish referendum: Scotland votes 'No' to independence|url=https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-29270441|access-date=19 September 2014|work=BBC News|date=19 September 2014}}</ref><ref name="Wit">{{cite news|author1=Griff Witte|title=Scotland votes to remain part of United Kingdom|url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/scots-turn-out-to-vote-in-independence-referendum/2014/09/18/85cf9278-5c90-4cbb-ab29-4f4c0d4ef949_story.html|access-date=19 September 2014|newspaper=The Washington Post|date=19 September 2014}}</ref><ref>{{cite news|title=Scottish independence: Edinburgh rejects independence|url=https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-29271147|access-date=19 September 2014|work=BBC News|date=19 September 2014}}</ref><ref>{{cite news|title=Scottish independence: Glasgow votes Yes to independence|url=https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-29269201|access-date=19 September 2014|work=BBC News|date=19 September 2014}}</ref><ref>{{cite news|title=Scottish referendum: Scotland votes no to independence|url=https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-29271333|access-date=19 September 2014|work=BBC News|date=19 September 2014}}</ref>
===UK withdrawal from the European Union=== {{See also|Proposed second Scottish independence referendum|Brexit|2016 United Kingdom European Union membership referendum}} [[File:UK and Scottish ministers in Brexit talks (36067878280).jpg|thumb|left|Ministers from the Scottish and UK Governments meet to discuss Brexit, 2017]]
In 2016, the UK voted to leave the EU in the Brexit referendum, however Scotland voted to remain by 62% to 38%.<ref name="BBCUKEUREF">{{cite news|url=https://www.bbc.com/news/politics/eu_referendum/results|title=UK votes to leave the EU|access-date=24 June 2016|agency=BBC News|date=24 June 2016}}</ref> Leading pro-independence figures suggested a second independence referendum.<ref>{{cite web|title=Nicola Sturgeon Denies She Has 'Machiavellian' Wish For Brexit|url=http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2016/01/24/nicola-sturgeon-denies-she-has-machiavellian-wish-for-brexit_n_9063372.html|website=The Huffington Post UK|access-date=3 February 2016|date=24 January 2016}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.salon.com/2016/06/22/the_end_of_the_united_kingdom_what_brexit_means_for_the_future_of_britain_partner/|title=The end of the United Kingdom: What Brexit means for the future of Britain|last=Jolly|first=Seth|date=22 June 2016|work=[[Salon (magazine)|Salon]]|access-date=23 June 2016}}</ref> For example, [[First Minister of Scotland]] [[Nicola Sturgeon]] said that she was looking at all options to "secure our place in the EU", and that a second referendum was "highly likely".<ref name="BBC2462016">{{cite news|title=Brexit: Nicola Sturgeon says second Scottish independence vote 'highly likely'|url=https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-36621030|access-date=24 June 2016|agency=BBC News|date=24 June 2016}}</ref> However, a spokesperson for Prime Minister [[Theresa May]] said that "The prime minister and the government does not believe that there is a mandate for [a second referendum]. There was one only two years ago. There was an extremely high turnout and there was a resounding result in favour of Scotland remaining in the UK".<ref>{{Cite news|url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-37708545|title=New Scottish independence bill published|date=20 October 2016|work=BBC News|access-date=28 February 2017|language=en-GB}}</ref><ref>{{Cite news | url=https://www.thetimes.com/article/may-stands-firm-against-second-scottish-referendum-96bqx2khx | title=May stands firm against second Scottish referendum| newspaper=The Times| date=27 March 2017| last1=Macdonell| first1=Hamish}}</ref>
At the [[2019 United Kingdom general election]], the SNP won 48 out of 59 Scottish seats. Sturgeon asked Prime Minister [[Boris Johnson]] for his consent to hold another referendum.<ref>{{Cite news|url=https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/19/nicola-sturgeon-requests-independence-referendum-powers|title=Sturgeon demands independence referendum powers be devolved|last=Brooks|first=Libby|date=19 December 2019|work=The Guardian|access-date=22 December 2019|language=en-GB|issn=0261-3077}}</ref> However, Johnson declined her request. He said that Sturgeon and her predecessor Alex Salmond had promised that the 2014 referendum would be a "once in a generation" vote.<ref>{{cite news |url=https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jan/14/boris-johnson-refuses-to-grant-scotland-powers-to-hold-independence-vote |title=Boris Johnson refuses to grant Scotland powers to hold independence vote |first=Libby |last=Brooks |newspaper=The Guardian |date=14 January 2020 |access-date=6 March 2020}}</ref>
Shortly before the UK left the [[European single market]], the Boris Johnson regime sought through the [[United Kingdom Internal Market Act 2020]] to restrict the legislative competence of the Scottish Parliament. The primary purpose of the act is to constrain the capacity of the devolved institutions to use their regulatory autonomy.<ref name=DouHu22>{{cite journal |last1=Dougan |first1=Michael |last2=Hunt |first2=Jo |last3=McEwen |first3=Nicola |last4=McHarg |first4=Aileen|author-link1=Michael Dougan|author-link3=Nicola McEwen|title=Sleeping with an Elephant: Devolution and the United Kingdom Internal Market Act 2020 |journal=[[Law Quarterly Review]] |date=2022|volume=138|issue=Oct|pages=650–676 |url=https://livrepository.liverpool.ac.uk/3143668/|location=London|publisher=[[Sweet & Maxwell]]|ssrn=4018581|via=[[University of Liverpool|University of Liverpool Repository]]|access-date=4 March 2022|quote=The Act has restrictive – and potentially damaging – consequences for the regulatory capacity of the devolved legislatures...This was not the first time since the Brexit referendum that the Convention had been set aside, but it was especially notable given that the primary purpose of the legislation was to constrain the capacity of the devolved institutions to use their regulatory autonomy...in practice, it constrains the ability of the devolved institutions to make effective regulatory choices for their territories in ways that do not apply to the choices made by the UK government and parliament for the English market.|issn=0023-933X}}</ref> The legislation undermines the capability of the Scottish legislature to make different economic or social choices from those made in Westminster.{{refn|name=UKIM|<ref name=DouHu22/><ref name=Keating21>{{cite journal |last1=Keating |first1=Michael |title=Taking back control? Brexit and the territorial constitution of the United Kingdom |journal=[[Journal of European Public Policy]]|publisher=[[Taylor & Francis]]|location=Abingdon|date=2 February 2021 |volume=28 |issue=4 |pages=6–7 |doi=10.1080/13501763.2021.1876156|quote=The UK Internal Market Act gives ministers sweeping powers to enforce mutual recognition and non-discrimination across the four jurisdictions. Existing differences and some social and health matters are exempted but these are much less extensive than the exemptions permitted under the EU Internal Market provisions. Only after an amendment in the House of Lords, the Bill was amended to provide a weak and non-binding consent mechanism for amendments (equivalent to the Sewel Convention) to the list of exemptions. The result is that, while the devolved governments retain regulatory competences, these are undermined by the fact that goods and services originating in, or imported into, England can be marketed anywhere.|hdl=1814/70296 |s2cid=234066376 |hdl-access=free }}</ref><ref name=KenMcEw21>{{cite journal |last1=Kenny |first1=Michael |author-link1=Michael Kenny (political scientist)|last2=McEwen |first2=Nicola |title=Intergovernmental Relations and the Crisis of the Union |publisher=[[SAGE Publishing]]|journal=Political Insight |date=1 March 2021 |volume=12 |issue=1 |pages=12–15 |doi=10.1177/20419058211000996|quote=That phase of joint working was significantly damaged by the UK Internal Market Act, pushed through by the Johnson government in December 2020...the Act diminishes the authority of the devolved institutions, and was vehemently opposed by them.|doi-access=free }}</ref><ref name=WolffeDevol>{{cite journal |last1=Wolffe |first1=W James |title=Devolution and the Statute Book |journal=[[Statute Law Review]] |date=7 April 2021 |doi=10.1093/slr/hmab003 |author-link=James Wolffe|location=Oxford|publisher=[[Oxford University Press]]|quote=the Internal Market Bill—a Bill that contains provisions which, if enacted, would significantly constrain, both legally and as a matter of practicality, the exercise by the devolved legislatures of their legislative competence; provisions that would be significantly more restrictive of the powers of the Scottish Parliament than either EU law or Articles 4 and 6 of the Acts of the Union...The UK Parliament passed the European Union (Withdrawal Agreement) Act 2020 and the Internal Market Act 2020 notwithstanding that, in each case, all three of the devolved legislatures had withheld consent.|doi-access=free }}</ref><ref name=Wincott21>{{cite journal |last1=Wincott |first1=Daniel |last2=Murray |first2=C. R. G. |last3=Davies |first3=Gregory |title=The Anglo-British imaginary and the rebuilding of the UK's territorial constitution after Brexit: unitary state or union state? |journal=Territory, Politics, Governance|author-link1=Daniel Wincott|location=Abingdon/Brighton|publisher=[[Taylor & Francis]]; [[Regional Studies Association]]|date=17 May 2021|volume=10 |issue=5 |pages=696–713 |doi-access=free|quote=Taken as a whole, the Internal Market Act imposes greater restrictions upon the competences of the devolved institutions than the provisions of the EU Single Market which it replaced, in spite of pledges to use common frameworks to address these issues. [[David Hope, Baron Hope of Craighead|Lord Hope]], responsible for many of the leading judgments relating to the first two decades of devolution, regarded the legislation's terms as deliberately confrontational: 'this Parliament can do what it likes, but a different approach is essential if the union is to hold together'.|doi=10.1080/21622671.2021.1921613}}</ref><ref name=DougEvi20>{{cite report |last=Dougan |first=Michael |author-link=Michael Dougan |title=Professor Michael Dougan: Evidence on the UK internal market bill |department=Finance and Constitution Committee |date=23 September 2020 |url=https://www.parliament.scot/parliamentarybusiness/report.aspx?r=12840 |publisher=[[Scottish Parliamentary Corporate Body]] |id=21st Meeting 2020, Session 5 |location=Edinburgh |quote=By imposing widespread obligations of non-discrimination and, more important, mutual recognition, the bill seeks to restrict the way that devolved competences operate in practice. |access-date=15 October 2020}}</ref><ref name=DouganMcEwen20>{{cite report |last1=Dougan |first1=Michael |last2=Hayward |first2=Katy |author-link2=Katy Hayward |last3=Hunt |first3=Jo |last4=McEwen |first4=Nicola |last5=McHarg |first5=Aileen |last6=Wincott |first6=Daniel |date=2020 |title=UK and the Internal Market, Devolution and the Union |url=https://www.centreonconstitutionalchange.ac.uk/publications/uk-and-internal-market-devolution-and-union |department=Centre on Constitutional Change |publisher=[[University of Edinburgh]], [[University of Aberdeen]] |pages=2–3 |access-date=16 October 2020}}</ref><ref name=LydgateEvi20>{{cite report |last=Lydgate |first=Emily|title=Dr Emily Lydgate, University of Sussex: Evidence on the UK internal market bill |department=Finance and Constitution Committee |date=23 September 2020 |url=https://www.parliament.scot/parliamentarybusiness/report.aspx?r=12840 |publisher=[[Scottish Parliamentary Corporate Body]] |id=21st Meeting 2020, Session 5 |location=Edinburgh |quote=In that context, even though the new powers might not be used, I expect that the UK Government wants the legislation to be in place before those statutory instruments come into force, in case the common frameworks fall apart. What we are seeing is the UK Government responding to a threat by trying to centralise power or create a system that will function in case there is a problem...For example, England might authorise a new active substance for pesticides, or a new GMO, and would then be able to freely export those products to devolved nations, even if they had controls domestically. In so doing, England could competitively undercut producers and in effect undermine permitted divergence. |access-date=15 October 2020}}</ref><ref name=Dougan20Brief>{{cite report |last=Dougan |first=Michael |author-link=Michael Dougan |date=2020 |title=Briefing Paper. United Kingdom Internal Market Bill: Implications for Devolution |url=https://www.liverpool.ac.uk/media/livacuk/law/2-research/eull/UKIM,Briefing,Paper,-,Prof,Michael,Dougan,15,September,2020.pdf |publisher=[[University of Liverpool]] |pages=4–5, 9–10 |location=Liverpool |access-date=15 October 2020 |archive-date=26 October 2020 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20201026161836/https://www.liverpool.ac.uk/media/livacuk/law/2-research/eull/UKIM,Briefing,Paper,-,Prof,Michael,Dougan,15,September,2020.pdf |url-status=dead }}</ref>}} In a January 2021 editorial concerning rising support for independence and its [[Potential breakup of the United Kingdom|potential to break up the union]], the ''[[Financial Times]]'' indicates that the Internal Market Act may serve to further the cause of independence:<ref name=BattleFT21>{{cite news |title=The battle is under way to save the UK union |url=https://www.ft.com/content/5d0ed494-4fca-4732-872c-85bb89d78721 |archive-url=https://ghostarchive.org/archive/20221210/https://www.ft.com/content/5d0ed494-4fca-4732-872c-85bb89d78721 |archive-date=10 December 2022 |url-access=subscription |url-status=live |access-date=6 February 2021 |work=[[Financial Times]]|location=London |date=28 January 2021}}</ref> {{blockquote|An example of what not to do was the government’s Internal Market Act, in which London retook control of structural funds previously disbursed by the EU.}} This view was mirrored by the Scottish Government in a report published in March 2021, which states that the act is "radically undermining the powers and democratic accountability of the Scottish Parliament."<ref name=AfterBr21>{{cite report|date=8 March 2021 |title=After Brexit: The UK Internal Market Act and devolution |chapter=Introduction |chapter-url=https://www.gov.scot/publications/brexit-uk-internal-market-act-devolution/pages/2/ |publisher=[[Scottish Government]]|location=Edinburgh |page=4 |access-date=15 March 2021 }}</ref>
=== 2021 Scottish elections === [[File:Agreement with Scottish Green Party at Bute.jpg|thumb|right|Following the 2021 election, the SNP and [[Scottish Greens]] agreed a power sharing agreement known as the [[Bute House Agreement]], giving the SNP government a majority in the Scottish Parliament]] In January 2021, Nicola Sturgeon said that another referendum would be held if pro-independence parties won a majority of seats at the [[2021 Scottish Parliament election]]. Opposition parties criticised the SNP, stating that they were putting independence ahead of the ongoing [[COVID-19 pandemic in Scotland|COVID-19 pandemic]].<ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/snp-independence-referendum-roadmap-b1791799.html|title=SNP lays out 'roadmap to independence'|last=Pooran|first=Neil|date=23 January 2021|website=The Independent|access-date=1 February 2021}}</ref> Although the SNP fell one seat short of winning outright, the eight seats won by the Scottish Greens meant that pro-independence parties had won a majority of seats in the election.<ref>{{Cite web|date=8 May 2021|title=Scottish nationalists vow independence vote after election win|url=https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/scotlands-crucial-election-knife-edge-pro-independence-party-heads-win-2021-05-08/|access-date=13 May 2021|website=Reuters}}</ref> Speaking after the election, both SNP and Conservative representatives said that a referendum would not occur during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.<ref>{{Cite web|title=Conservatives and SNP agree on one thing - indyref2 won't happen any time soon|url=https://news.sky.com/story/conservatives-and-snp-agree-on-one-thing-indyref2-wont-happen-any-time-soon-12300228|last=Coates|first=Sam|date=8 May 2021|access-date=9 May 2021|website=Sky News|language=en}}</ref>
The Scottish Government plans to hold a second independence referendum before the end of the current Scottish Parliament.<ref name=":4">{{cite news|last=Bol|first=David|date=27 January 2022|title=SNP paying £700k-a -year civil servants team to update independence 'prospectus'|url=https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/19879846.snp-government-paying-700k-a--year-civil-servants-team-update-independence-prospectus/|access-date=28 January 2022|website=The Herald|language=en}}</ref> Nicola Sturgeon has indicated the vote would be held by 2023. Boris Johnson has stated that he would not grant authorisation for a referendum, but the SNP has indicated it is prepared to hold a referendum regardless. According to a poll of 1000 voters conducted for ''[[Politico Europe]]'', 43% said they agreed that Scotland should only hold a second independence referendum if the U.K. government agrees to it.<ref>{{Cite web|date=2021-09-20|title=Poll: Scots don't back Nicola Sturgeon's push for 2023 independence vote|url=https://www.politico.eu/article/poll-scots-nicola-sturgeon-2023-independence-vote/|access-date=2022-01-28|website=Politico|language=en-US}}</ref>
In January 2022, ''[[The Herald (Glasgow)|The Herald]]'' reported that the Scottish Government were paying eleven civil servants a total of £700,000 per year to plan for Scottish independence. In its response to the newspaper, the government stated "As set out in the 2021/22 Programme for Government (PfG), the Scottish Government will work to ensure that a legitimate and constitutional referendum can be held within this Parliament, and if the Covid crisis is over, within the first half of this Parliament." The [[Scottish Conservatives]] constitution spokesperson [[Donald Cameron (Scottish politician)|Donald Cameron]] and [[Scottish Liberal Democrats]] leader [[Alex Cole-Hamilton]] opposed the spending. Cole-Hamilton said "to spend more than £500,000 on a fool's errand of another prospectus for independence makes it less of a white paper and more of a white elephant" and suggested the SNP and Green Party are "off their rockers". SNP President Michael Russell remarked that the SNP and Green Party's victory in the election indicated they have a mandate to hold a second referendum to make Scotland an independent country.<ref name=":4"/>
=== Proposed 2023 independence referendum === {{Main|Proposed second Scottish independence referendum}}
[[File:Scottish Government Press Conference - Renewing Democracy through Independence - 14th July 2022 (52215837243).jpg|thumb|right|The Scottish Government began publishing independence prospectus papers, ''[[Building a New Scotland]]'', under First Minister Nicola Sturgeon in 2022]]
On 28 June 2022, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon proposed to hold a second Scottish independence referendum on 19 October 2023, provided that the legality and constitutionality of the referendum is guaranteed.<ref name="19 october">{{Cite web |date=28 June 2022 |title=Scottish independence: 19 October 2023 proposed as date for referendum |url=https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-61968607 |access-date=28 June 2022 |website=[[BBC News]]}}</ref> She set out a three-stage process, starting with the Scottish Government making a request for a Section 30 order (parliamentary powers) to hold a referendum.<ref name="19 october" /> If that was rejected, it would ask the UK Supreme Court to adjudicate whether the Scottish Parliament could legislate for a referendum without that transfer of powers.<ref name="19 october" /> If that was also rejected, she wished to turn the next UK general election into a "de facto" referendum.<ref name="19 october" />
A week later, Prime Minister Boris Johnson rejected the request for a Section 30 transfer of powers.<ref>{{Cite web |title=Beleaguered Boris Johnson rejects Nicola Sturgeon's indyref2 call |website=BBC News |url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-62071426 |access-date=6 July 2022 |date=6 July 2022 |language=en}}</ref> The Scottish Government lodged a case with the Supreme Court to determine whether the powers to hold a referendum are within the competence of the Scottish Parliament. A hearing took place on 11 and 12 October 2022,<ref name=":5">{{Cite news |date=2022-07-21 |title=Supreme Court date for indyref2 case set for 11 October |language=en-GB |work=BBC News |url=https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-62250988 |access-date=2022-08-01}}</ref><ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/scottish-independence-could-there-be-another-referendum-2022-10-11/|title=Scottish independence: could there be another referendum?|date=11 October 2022 |work=Reuters|last1=Holden |first1=Michael }}</ref> and a month later the Supreme Court ruled that the Scottish Parliament does not have the power to legislate for an independence referendum.<ref name=":11"/>
Before the Supreme Court hearing Nicola Sturgeon said that, in the eventuality of the Court ruling that the Scottish Parliament did not have the authority to act unilaterally, the SNP would contest the next UK general election as a ''de facto'' referendum on independence.<ref name="19 october" /> This tactic has been previously used by [[1918 United Kingdom general election in Ireland|Irish]] and [[2015 Catalan regional election|Catalan]] nationalists.<ref name=Torr22/> It has been criticised on the grounds that "elections and [...] referendums [...] are quite distinct" and that general elections "[are] often about a range of issues" and "it's not for a political party to dictate the terms of an election".<ref name=Torr22/>{{Rp|page=97}} Prof Jim Gallagher, chair of Our Scottish Future, said that "whatever UK government emerges won't treat it as having been an independence referendum".<ref name=Torr22/>{{Rp|page=97}}
Ahead of the [[2026 Scottish Parliament election]], First Minister [[John Swinney]] said in September 2025 that the UK Government should commit to granting a second referendum on independence should the SNP win a majority at the election.<ref name="Swinney sets out latest plan for an independence referendum">{{cite web |title=Swinney sets out latest plan for an independence referendum |url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy4rlxz2kz0o |website=BBC News |access-date=13 September 2025 |date=4 September 2025}}</ref> Speaking at an event in Edinburgh, Swinney urged the population of Scotland to "come together and demand a say over our future".<ref name="Swinney sets out latest plan for an independence referendum"/> UK Prime Minister Starmer claimed that he does not foresee the SNP winning a majority at the Scottish Parliament election, and accused Swinney of engaging in "distraction politics".<ref name="Swinney sets out latest plan for an independence referendum"/> Since the 2014 referendum, unionist politicians have argued against a second referendum on the basis that the vote in 2014 was billed as a "once in a generation" opportunity, which Swinney disputes. In an interview with the [[BBC]], he claimed that "by 2030 there would be one million young Scots eligible to vote who were too young to participate in the 2014 referendum", further commenting "that seems like a generation to me".<ref name="Swinney sets out latest plan for an independence referendum"/>
On 4 September 2025, the Scottish Government published the ''Your Right to Decide'' paper, which sets out the governments prospectus on Scottish independence following a second referendum and establishes the view that "it is for the people of Scotland to decide on their constitutional future".<ref name="Your Right to Decide">{{cite web |title=Your Right to Decide |url=https://www.gov.scot/publications/right-decide/# |website=www.gov.scot |access-date=13 September 2025 |language=en}}</ref> In the paper, the Scottish Government establishes the United Kingdom as a "voluntary union of nations", and therefore argues that Scotland should have the ability to decide whether to leave the voluntary union arrangement which established the [[United Kingdom of Great Britain]] following the signing of the [[Treaty of Union 1707]] by the [[Parliament of Scotland]] and its [[Parliament of England|English counterpart]].<ref name="Your Right to Decide"/>
=== Foreign interference in the independence debate === On 21 July 2020, the [[Intelligence and Security Committee of Parliament]] published [[Intelligence and Security Committee Russia report|a report]] documenting [[Russian interference in British politics]], which referred to "credible open source commentary" regarding Russian influence operations in relation to the 2014 referendum.<ref>{{Cite web |url=https://isc.independent.gov.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/20200721_HC632_CCS001_CCS1019402408-001_ISC_Russia_Report_Web_Accessible.pdf |title=Russia |date=21 July 2020 |access-date=13 April 2026 |publisher=Intelligence and Security Committee of Parliament |page=13}}</ref><ref>{{Cite news |url=https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/politics/uk-politics/2352770/russia-report-call-for-inquiry-after-isc-finds-credible-evidence-of-attempt-to-influence-2014-scottish-independence-referendum/ |title=Russia report: Call for inquiry after ISC finds 'credible' evidence of attempt to influence 2014 Scottish independence referendum |last=O'Donoghue |first=Daniel |date=21 July 2020 |access-date=13 April 2026 |work=The Press and Journal |location=Aberdeen}}</ref><ref>{{Cite news |url=https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/21/just-what-does-the-uk-russia-report-say-key-points-explained |title=UK report on Russian interference: key points explained |last=Murphy |first=Simon |date=21 July 2020 |access-date=13 April 2026 |work=The Guardian}}</ref> During the 2014 referendum, Russian election observers cast doubt on the result by claiming that ballots had been improperly handled and that the referendum count took place in rooms that were too big. [[Russia Today]] alleged that the referendum had been rigged and expressed disbelief at "[[North Korea]]n" levels of turnout. The Russian-backed [[Donetsk People's Republic]], a separatist enclave in eastern [[Ukraine]], also issued a statement claiming that the results had been falsified.<ref>{{Cite news |url=https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/19/russia-calls-foul-scottish-referendum |title=Russia cries foul over Scottish independence vote |last=Harding |first=Luke |date=19 September 2014 |access-date=28 April 2026 |work=The Guardian}}</ref> Russian online activists further attempted to cast doubt on the result by spreading fake videos and amplifying allegations that ballots were interfered with.<ref>{{Cite news |url=https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/13/russian-cyber-activists-tried-to-discredit-scottish-independence-vote-says-analyst |title=Russian cyber-activists 'tried to discredit Scottish independence vote' |last=Carrell |first=Severin |date=13 December 2017 |access-date=28 April 2026 |work=The Guardian}}</ref>
The [[Islamic Republic of Iran]] has also offered support to Scottish independence through both overt and covert means. [[Press TV]], the Iranian regime's English-language propaganda outlet, has presented the Scottish independence campaign as an anti-colonial struggle, and has presented false stories claiming that the British Government has militarised Scottish territory to suppress support for independence.<ref name="Iran">{{cite news |title=Dozens of pro-Indy accounts go dark after Israeli strikes |url=https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/dozens-of-pro-indy-accounts-go-dark-after-israeli-strikes/ |first=George |last=Allison |date=24 June 2025 |website=ukdefencejournal.org.uk }}</ref>
In 2025, ''[[The Times]]'' reported that Iran's [[Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps|Revolutionary Guard Corps]] had a network of fake accounts on [[X (social network)|X]] which were used to cause tension and disunity within the United Kingdom and the [[United States]]. It was found that Iranian linked accounts demonstrate support for Scottish independence and for the Scottish National Party.<ref>{{Cite web |last=Baruchin |first=Rotem |date=2025-07-10 |title=The Bot Network Collapse That Exposed Iran's Influence Operation |url=https://cyabra.com/blog/the-bot-network-collapse-that-exposed-irans-influence-operation/ |website=Cyabra |language=en-US}}</ref> In August 2025, the anti-disinformation firm Cyabra presented evidence that up to 26% of profiles on [[X (social network)|X]] discussing Scottish independence were fake and linked to an Iranian state-backed disinformation campaign: Cyabra analysed conversations on X between May and June 2025, and found that over 1,300 of the more than 5,000 pro-independence users it examined were fake. These fictitious profiles posted more than 3,000 posts in a period of six weeks, generating over 224 million potential views and more than 126,000 user engagements.<ref name="Iran"/><ref>{{cite news |title=Iranian bots behind thousands of Scottish independence posts |url=https://www.holyrood.com/news/view,iranian-bots-behind-thousands-of-scottish-independence-posts |first=Sofia |last=Villegas |date=25 August 2025 |website=holyrood.com }}</ref><ref>{{cite news |title=Figures claim 26% of recent Scot independence posts by Iran |url=https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/figures-claim-26-of-recent-scot-independence-posts-by-iran/ |first=Bryan |last=Davis |date=23 August 2025 |website=ukdefencejournal.org.uk }}</ref> [[Clemson University]] researchers discovered at least 80 accounts pretending to be left-wing British citizens.<ref name="Blakely-2024">{{Cite web |last=Blakely |first=Rhys |date=2024-10-02 |title=Iran 'among biggest backers of Scottish independence on X' |url=https://www.thetimes.com/uk/science/article/bogus-tweets-paint-iranian-military-as-scottish-independence-fans-7thbt7vc3 |website=www.thetimes.com |language=en}}</ref> The network had at least a quarter million followers according to the researchers.<ref>{{Cite web |last=Baruchin |first=Rotem |date=2025-07-10 |title=The Bot Network Collapse That Exposed Iran's Influence Operation |url=https://cyabra.com/blog/the-bot-network-collapse-that-exposed-irans-influence-operation/ |website=Cyabra |language=en-US}}</ref> The campaign was exposed after dozens of accounts ceased to post during the [[Iran–Israel conflict]] of 13-24 June 2025, where Israel extensively targeted Iranian military, electrical, and communications infrastructure. When they returned to posting, their narratives had shifted to emphasising Iranian resilience against Israeli attacks. One of these profiles presented itself as a [[Glasgow]]-based socialist, while another purported to be a former [[National Health Service|NHS]] nurse. The [[UK Defence Journal]] documented the case of "@fiona175161", an X account using an [[Generative artificial intelligence|AI-generated]] profile image whose biography said she was as a "Proud Scottish lass" advocating for independence. The account fell silent during Iran's 13-25 June blackout, then resumed with pro-Iran messaging before reverting to Scottish independence content.<ref>{{Cite web |last=Allison |first=George |date=2025-08-23 |title=Fiona and Iran’s role in the Scottish independence debate |url=https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/fiona-and-irans-role-in-the-scottish-independence-debate/ |language=en-GB}}</ref> Their posts pushed pro-Scottish independence and anti-[[Brexit]] narratives, as well as accusing institutions like the BBC or [[Scottish Labour]] Party of bias or betrayal.<ref name="Iran"/>
In November 2025, X began displaying transparency data such as location, history, and username changes on user accounts. This further confirmed suspicions of a major Iranian influence campaign in support of Scottish independence: transparency data for a cluster of accounts confirmed that they connected via the Iranian [[Cafe Bazaar]] app store and simultaneously routed through [[VPN]] servers in the [[Netherlands]]. The posting rhythms for these accounts followed each other closely, including fabricated AI-generated photos and videos and amplifying each others' posts in a short period of time. Scottish Labour MP [[Graeme Downie]] said, "This confirms what we already knew that Iran, as well as countries such as Russia and our other enemies, are actively seeking to subvert our democracy and discourse in Scotland and the UK. We are already in a grey war with our enemies and this is further proof of that."<ref>{{cite news |title=Proof Scottish pro-Indy account network operated from Iran |url=https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/proof-scottish-pro-indy-account-network-operated-from-iran/ |first=George |last=Allison |date=23 August 2025 |website=ukdefencejournal.org.uk }}</ref>
==Legal position== {{see also|2014 Scottish independence referendum#Legality of a referendum}}
=== Power to declare independence === While in Northern Ireland, the system of devolution includes a provision for independence referendums, under the [[Scottish devolution]] framework, there is no equivalent provision. Therefore, Scottish independence would need to be enacted exceptionally by a competent authority. Due to the UK having no [[Uncodified constitution|codified constitution]], there is dispute over which authorities have competence to enact Scottish independence.<ref name=Torr22>{{Cite report |url=https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-9104/CBP-9104.pdf |title=Scottish Independence Referendum: Legal Issues |last=Torrance |first=David|id=CBP9104|author-link=David Torrance (journalist)|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220711162858/https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-9104/CBP-9104.pdf|archive-date=11 July 2022|url-status=live|date=19 October 2022|website=UK Parliament|publisher=House of Commons Library}}</ref>
The UK Parliament retains [[parliamentary sovereignty]] over the United Kingdom as a whole.<ref>[http://www.parliament.uk/commons/lib/research/rp2003/rp03-084.pdf An introduction to devolution in the UK] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080910042038/http://www.parliament.uk/commons/lib/research/rp2003/rp03-084.pdf |date=10 September 2008 }} House of Commons Library, Research Paper 03/84, 17 November 2003.</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.parliament.uk/about/how/laws/sovereignty.cfm |title=UK Parliament – Parliamentary sovereignty |publisher=Parliament.uk |date=21 November 2007 |access-date=6 April 2009 |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090717060941/http://www.parliament.uk/about/how/laws/sovereignty.cfm |archive-date=17 July 2009 }}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal | doi=10.1111/1468-2230.00203|title = Unfinished Business: The Scotland Act 1998| journal=Modern Law Review| volume=62| issue=2| pages=241–260|year = 1999|last1 = Burrows|first1 = Noreen}}</ref> Under this principle, the UK Parliament could enact Scottish independence without the need for a referendum.<ref name="Torr22" /> In ''AXA General Insurance Ltd and others v HM Advocate and others'', the Deputy President of the Supreme Court, [[Lord Hope of Craighead]], stated that "the sovereignty of the Crown in Parliament [...] is the bedrock of the British constitution. Sovereignty remains with the United Kingdom Parliament."<ref>''AXA General Insurance Ltd and others v HM Advocate and others'' [2011] 3 WLR 871 at p 895</ref> However, the application of the principle of parliamentary sovereignty to Scotland has been disputed. In ''[[MacCormick v Lord Advocate]]'', the [[Lord President of the Court of Session]], [[Lord Cooper of Culross]] stated ''[[Obiter dictum|obiter dicta]]'' that "the principle of the unlimited sovereignty of Parliament is a distinctively English principle which has no counterpart in Scottish Constitutional Law."<ref>''MacCormick v Lord Advocate'' 1953 SC 396 at p 411</ref> It has been suggested that the doctrine of [[popular sovereignty]],<ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/special/politics97/devolution/scotland/people/wright.shtml|title=Yes/Yes – Reverend Kenyon Wright|work=Scottish referendum|publisher=BBC|access-date=10 January 2012}}</ref> proclaimed in the 1320 [[Declaration of Arbroath]] {{Citation needed|date=November 2023}}, articulated by Scottish political thinkers like [[George Buchanan]] and reasserted by the [[Claim of Right 1989]] (signed by nearly every Labour and Liberal Democrat MP in Scotland at the time),<ref>{{cite news|url=http://www.newstatesman.com/uk-politics/2009/02/scottish-scotland-thatcher|quote=The poll-tax row finally persuaded Labour's ultra-cautious shadow Scottish secretary, [[Donald Dewar]], to join the cross-party Scottish Constitutional Convention in 1988 and sign its "Claim of Right" document, which called for a repatriation of Scottish sovereignty.|title=That Bloody Woman|first=Iain|last=MacWhirter|date=26 February 2009|work=New Statesman|access-date=10 January 2012}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web|url=https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld199899/ldhansrd/vo990427/text/90427-14.htm|title=Lords Hansard text for 27 Apr 1999 (190427-14)|website=publications.parliament.uk}}</ref> is of greater relevance to Scotland.
Some lawyers have said that Parliament cannot repeal the Acts of Union because the ''Treaty of Union'' is a [[treaty]] in international law, made by two no longer existing, independent states.<ref name="Torr22" /> The law scholar David Walker wrote that regardless of any amendment or repeal of the Acts, the ''Treaty'' would remain in force because Parliament cannot alter the terms of international treaties.<ref name=":6">{{Cite web |title=The Union and the law |url=https://www.lawscot.org.uk/members/journal/issues/vol-52-issue-06/the-union-and-the-law/ |access-date=2023-01-12 |website=Law Society of Scotland |language=en}}</ref> Professors James Crawford and Alan Boyle write that it is unlikely the ''Treaty of Union'' can be considered a treaty, but rather, as Smith<ref>Smith, ‘The Union of 1707 as fundamental law’ (1957) Public Law 99.</ref> wrote, it was a 'record of negotiations' and that the UK could not 'be bound by a treaty to which it was not party'.<ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Boyle |first1=Alan |last2=Crawford |first2=James |date={{date|2013|2}} |title=Annex A Opinion: Referendum on the Independence of Scotland - International Law Aspects |url=https://www.research.ed.ac.uk/en/publications/annex-a-opinion-referendum-on-the-independence-of-scotland-intern |journal=Scotland Analysis: Devolution and the Implications of Scottish Independence |language=English}}</ref> This notion that Parliament cannot amend the terms of the Union's creation is challenged by the fact that the Acts have been successfully amended by the Parliament several times.<ref name="Torr22" /> David Walker writes that simply because Parliament purports to amend an Act does not mean it has done so.<ref name=":6" /> When HM Government ratifies a treaty, it does not however bring it into domestic law, it only creates certain rights or duties for the Government. An Act is only brought into domestic law by Parliament legislating thus. According to a 2017 Supreme Court ruling, ministers cannot make changes to UK constitutional arrangements without an Act of Parliament. There is no legal role for the Scottish Parliament or Government in treaties and under devolution, treaty-making is the sole responsibility of the UK Government.<ref>Lang, A. (2021). [https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9247/ How Parliament treats treaties] (Research Briefing), 1 June 2021, House of Commons Library. Retrieved 12 January 2023.</ref>
The legality of any UK constituent country attaining ''de facto'' independence or declaring unilateral independence outside the framework of British [[Constitutional conventions of the United Kingdom|constitutional convention]] is debatable. Under [[international law]], a unilateral declaration might satisfy the principle of the "[[declarative theory of statehood]]", but not the "[[constitutive theory of statehood]]". Some legal opinion following the [[Supreme Court of Canada]]'s [[Reference re Secession of Quebec|decision]] on what steps [[Quebec]] would need to take to secede is that Scotland would be unable to unilaterally declare independence under international law if the UK Government permitted a referendum on an unambiguous question on secession.<ref>{{cite journal|jstor=1096974|title=Nationalism and the Pathology of Legal Systems: Considering the Quebec Secession Reference and Its Lessons for the United Kingdom|last1=Walters|first1=Mark D.|journal=The Modern Law Review|year=1999|volume=62|issue=3|pages=371–396|doi=10.1111/1468-2230.00212}}</ref><ref>{{cite news|url=http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/letters/article1293929.ece |title=Scotland and the thorny road to independence |work=The Times |date=18 January 2007|access-date=6 April 2009 |location=London |first1=Philippe |last1=Naughton |first2=Adam |last2=Sage}}{{dead link|date=September 2024|bot=medic}}{{cbignore|bot=medic}}</ref> The SNP have not sought a unilateral act, but rather state that a positive vote for independence in a referendum would have "enormous moral and political force... impossible for a future [Westminster] government to ignore",<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/a-national-conversation/Your-Questions-Answered|title=Your Questions Answered|publisher=Scottish Government|access-date=12 January 2012|date=14 August 2008}}</ref> and hence would give the Scottish Government a mandate to negotiate for the passage of an act of the UK Parliament providing for Scotland's secession, in which Westminster renounces its sovereignty over Scotland.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-13326310 |title=Q&A: Scottish independence referendum|publisher=BBC |work=BBC News|date=10 January 2012|access-date=12 January 2012}}</ref>
The [[Charter of the United Nations]] enshrines the right of peoples to self-determination, and the [[Universal Declaration of Human Rights]] also guarantees peoples' right to change nationality; the UK is a signatory to both documents. Politicians in both the Scottish and UK parliaments have endorsed the right of the Scottish people to [[self-determination]], including former UK Prime Ministers [[John Major]] and [[Margaret Thatcher]].<ref>Hazell, Robert. [https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2008/jul/29/snp.scotland Rites of secession], ''[[The Guardian]]'', 29 July 2008.</ref>
=== Power to hold an independence referendum === [[File:Official Portrait of Dorothy Bain QC.png|thumb|right|190px|The [[Lord Advocate]], [[Dorothy Bain]], argued the Scottish Government's case for the granting of a Section 30 order before the [[Supreme Court of the United Kingdom|Supreme Court]] in October 2022]] The issue of the Scottish Government's power to hold and the Scottish Parliament's competence to legislate for an independence referendum is a subject of intense debate both inside and outside Scotland. In November 2022 the UK Supreme Court gave a judgment that the Scottish Parliament does not have the power to legislate for an independence referendum.<ref name=":11"/> The [[Scotland Act 1998]] reserved powers over "the Union of the Kingdoms of Scotland and England" to the UK Parliament. Any provision is outwith the competence of the Scottish Parliament if "it relates to reserved matters" under Section 29(2) of the Act. This formed the basis of the UK Supreme Court's judgment on the Scottish Parliament's competence to legislate on the matter.<ref name=":11" />
To ensure the undisputed constitutional legality of the [[2014 Scottish independence referendum]], the Scottish and UK Governments signed the [[Edinburgh Agreement (2012)|Edinburgh Agreement]] stating that both would accept and "continue to work together constructively in the light of the outcome [of the referendum], whatever it is, in the best interests of the people of Scotland and of the rest of the United Kingdom".<ref name="edin ag">{{cite web |title=Agreement between the Scottish Government and the United Kingdom Government on the referendum on independence for Scotland |date=12 October 2012 |url=http://www.scotland.gov.uk/About/Government/concordats/Referendum-on-independence |access-date=8 September 2014 |publisher=Scottish Government}}</ref> The agreement, with the subsequent approval of the UK Parliament, gave the Scottish Parliament special legal authority to hold an independence referendum before the end of 2014.<ref name="edin ag" /><ref>{{cite web |date=2013 |title=The Scotland Act 1998 (Modification of Schedule 5) Order 2013 |url=http://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2013/242/pdfs/uksi_20130242_en.pdf |website=[[legislation.gov.uk]]}}</ref>
No such agreement has been reached in respect of a [[second Scottish independence referendum|second referendum]], throwing doubt over its legal status. In December 2019, Martin Keatings, a pro-independence independent candidate, sought a declarator to the Court of Session. However Lady Carmichael said the case lacked standing due to its hypothetical nature. Nevertheless, Mr Keatings brought an appeal forward in April 2021 as the Scottish Government had now published a bill,<ref name=Torr22/> however this appeal was lost.<ref>{{cite news |date=4 May 2021 |title=Independence campaigner loses appeal on Scottish Parliament's competence to independently legislate for indyref2 |language=en |website=Scottish Legal News |url=https://www.scottishlegal.com/article/independence-campaigner-loses-appeal-on-scottish-parliament-s-competence-to-independently-legislate-for-indyref2 |access-date=9 May 2021}}</ref>
With the publication of the draft [[Proposed second Scottish independence referendum|Independence Referendum Bill]]<ref>{{cite news |url=https://www.irishlegal.com/article/independence-referendum-bill-published-by-scottish-government|title=Independence referendum bill published by Scottish government|work=Irish Legal News|date=23 March 2021}}</ref> on 22 March 2021<ref>{{cite web|title=Draft Independence Referendum Bill|url=https://www.gov.scot/publications/draft-independence-referendum-bill/ |website=Scot.gov|publisher=Scottish Government|date=22 March 2021}}</ref> the question of legality was raised again. On 28 June 2022, Sturgeon proposed to hold a referendum in 2023, provided that the legality and constitutionality of the referendum is guaranteed.<ref name="19 october" /> The Scottish Government stated that their proposed referendum is "consultative, not self-executing". In UK law, a referendum can be consultative (such as the [[Brexit referendum]]) or determinative (such as the [[2011 United Kingdom Alternative Vote referendum|AV referendum]], which, if passed, would have automatically brought in provisions for the [[Instant-runoff voting|Alternative Vote]]).<ref name="Torr22" /> The Scotland Act does not explicitly state whether non-binding referendums on reserve powers were reserved.<ref name="Torr22" /> In the Scottish Government's written case published in July 2022, the Lord Advocate observed that "the Union of the Kingdoms of Scotland and England has been superseded as a matter of law and exists only as an historical fact. The [Scotland Act] would therefore reserve something that no longer exists."<ref name="Torr22" />
The Scottish Government lodged a case with the Supreme Court to determine whether the powers to hold a referendum are within the competence of the Scottish Parliament, and a hearing took place on 11 and 12 October 2022.<ref name=":5" /> A month later, the UK Supreme Court gave a judgment that the Scottish Parliament does not have the power to hold an independence referendum because it relates to the Union of England and Scotland and the sovereignty of the UK Parliament, which are matters reserved to the UK Parliament.<ref name=":11">Decision by the Supreme Court of the United Kingdom, 23 November 2022. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-63727562</ref>
==Issues==
=== Culture === In 2014, the Scottish Government wrote that "[Scotland's] approach [to culture] has been, and will continue to be, distinct from that of Westminster". The Scottish Government position was that Scottish independence would give the Scottish Government more powers to encourage culture and creative sectors. In the event of independence, the Scottish Government planned to increase domestic creative production opportunities, such as by setting up a new [[national broadcaster]], while maintaining access to current TV channels and with no additional cost to viewers and listeners.<ref name="scotland.gov.uk" />
=== Democracy === The concept of a democratic deficit is the most frequently invoked argument in favour of independence. England has a majority (84%) of the UK population. Thus, constituency results for Scotland rarely affect the outcome of general elections. From the 1960s onwards, average voting patterns in Scotland and England have diverged.<ref name=":0">{{Cite web |last=McHarg |first=Aileen |date=2016 |title=The constitutional case for independence |url=https://academic.oup.com/book/7361/chapter/152165507 |access-date=2022-12-04 |website=academic.oup.com |pages=101–126 |doi=10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198755517.003.0005|isbn=978-0-19-875551-7 }}</ref> Scotland has only elected a majority of governing MPs in three of the 11 UK general elections since [[1979 United Kingdom general election|1979]].<ref name="21election2">{{cite web |last=Cook |first=James |date=3 May 2021 |title=Scottish election 2021: Does Scotland's future lie in or out of the Union? |url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-56970549 |access-date=27 May 2021 |website=BBC News |quote=There is no doubt that the UK's 2016 vote to leave the European Union despite the opposition of 62% of voters in Scotland has breathed new life into the old constitutional debate"; "Many nationalists say Brexit is just one example of a "democratic deficit" — in the 11 general elections since the Conservative Margaret Thatcher became prime minister in 1979, Scotland has returned a majority of MPs from the party which formed or led a government on just three occasions.}}</ref> Devolution was intended to close this deficit,<ref>{{cite web |last=Buchanan |first=Raymond |date=8 April 2013 |title=Margaret Thatcher: The woman who changed Scotland |url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-22068402 |access-date=27 May 2021 |website=BBC News}}</ref> but [[Brexit]], which happened despite 62% of voters in Scotland voting against it,<ref>{{cite web |title=Results |url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/eu_referendum/results |access-date=30 November 2020 |website=BBC News |publisher=BBC}}</ref> has highlighted this concern.<ref name="21election2"/> The [[Conservative Party (UK)|Conservative Party]], which often forms the UK Government by winning general elections, has not won a plurality of seats in Scotland [[1955 United Kingdom general election|since 1955]].
Underpinning the democratic deficit argument is an assumption that Scotland is a nation with a right to [[self-determination]].<ref name=":0" /> Were Scotland independent, Scotland's population would possess full decision-making power in regard to the political affairs of its nation. [[Alex Salmond]] stated in a May 2012 launch that "the people who live in Scotland are best placed to make the decisions that affect Scotland."<ref>{{cite news |date=26 May 2012 |title='Scotland's future will be in Scotland's hands' |work=Herald Scotland |url=http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/political-news/scotlands-future-will-be-in-scotlands-hands.17666615 |access-date=13 June 2014}}</ref>
In January 2023, the UK Government blocked the [[Gender Recognition Reform (Scotland) Bill]] from going to [[royal assent]] after it passed the Scottish Parliament 86 to 39. The UK Government overruled the bill by using for the first ever time Section 35 powers under the Scotland Act; the justification for the move was that they believed it would impact equalities legislation, which is reserved to Westminster.<ref>{{cite web |date=16 January 2023 |title=UK government blocks Scotland's new gender recognition law |url=https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/16/europe/scottish-gender-law-uk-constitution-intl-gbr |website=[[CNN]]}}</ref> Nicola Sturgeon responded, arguing that the block had 'no grounds' and constituted a 'full-frontal attack on democracy'.<ref>{{Cite web |date=2023-01-16 |title='Attack on democracy' as London overrules Scottish gender law |url=https://www.euronews.com/2023/01/16/full-frontal-attack-on-democracy-as-london-overrules-scottish-parliament-for-the-first-tim |access-date=2023-02-15 |website=euronews |language=en}}</ref>
=== Nationality and citizenship === The United Kingdom is a plurinational, rather than multinational, state, where overlapping national identities exist. According to Keating, both Scottishness and Britishness can be understood as a national identity and one can hold one of them alone or both at the same time.<ref>{{cite book |last=Keating |first=Michael |title=Plurinational Democracy: Stateless Nations in a Post-Sovereignty Era |chapter=Plurinational Democracy |date=2001-11-15 |chapter-url=http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/0199240760.003.0006 |pages=160–172 |publisher=Oxford University Press |location=Oxford |doi=10.1093/0199240760.003.0006 |isbn=0199240760 |access-date=2022-12-04}}</ref><ref name=":0" /> Many people in Scotland have multiple national identities. 59% in Scotland surveyed by the BBC in 2018 said they felt strongly British, though the figure is lower than the equivalent in Wales (79%) and England (82%).<ref>{{Cite news |date=2018-06-05 |title=Ten things we learned about Scottishness |language=en-GB |work=BBC News |url=https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-44208691 |access-date=2021-05-16}}</ref> However, the majority of Scots feel closer affinity to a Scottish, rather than a British national identity. In a 2021 survey, when asked about their national identity and only allowed to pick one option, 64% of Scottish residents identify as Scottish and 29% as British.<ref>{{Cite web |last1=Clarke |first1=Harold D. |last2=Whiteley |first2=Paul |title=Scots less likely to identify as 'European' than others in the UK, survey reveals |url=http://theconversation.com/scots-less-likely-to-identify-as-european-than-others-in-the-uk-survey-reveals-160818 |access-date=2022-12-04 |website=The Conversation |date=14 May 2021 |language=en}}</ref> Furthermore, many in Scotland do not feel a national affinity to the UK at all. In a poll taken in early 2021 by Panelbase, a third of respondents in Scotland said they felt Scottish but not British.<ref name=":3">{{Cite news |date=2021-01-26 |title=How Brexit shapes people's views on Scottish independence |language=en-GB |work=BBC News |url=https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-55803103 |access-date=2021-05-28}}</ref>
A category of 'Scottish citizenship' does not currently exist, as [[nationality law]] is reserved to Westminster. In the event of independence, Scotland and the rest of the UK would need to set new citizenship laws to allocate [[British nationality law|British]] and/or Scottish citizenship to existing British citizens and set out Scotland's new nationality laws. For the 2014 referendum, the Yes side said Scotland would tolerate dual citizenship. British citizens habitually resident in Scotland and Scottish-born British citizens elsewhere would have been able to become Scottish citizens automatically.<ref>{{Cite web |title=Citizenship in Scotland's Future |url=https://www.centreonconstitutionalchange.ac.uk/news-and-opinion/citizenship-scotlands-future |access-date=2023-02-15 |website=Centre on Constitutional Change |language=en}}</ref> SNP MP [[Pete Wishart]] said in 2013 that Scots would 'of course' be able to keep a UK passport, but [[Theresa May as Home Secretary|Home Secretary Theresa May]] said Scots may not have that option.<ref>{{Cite news |last=Maddox |first=David |date=11 Jun 2013 |title=Scottish independence: UK passport loss indication |work=The Scotsman |url=https://www.scotsman.com/news/uk-news/scottish-independence-uk-passport-loss-indication-1571851}}</ref>
=== Economy === [[File:Evening view across Carlton Hill towards the Castle (13164472813).jpg|thumb|right|[[Edinburgh]], Scotland's capital city and [[financial centre]], the fourth largest financial hub in Europe<ref>{{cite web |title=Edinburgh 4th in Europe in new Financial Centres index – Scottish Financial Review |url=https://scottishfinancialreview.com/2020/09/25/edinburgh-4th-in-europe-in-new-financial-centres-index/ |website=scottishfinancialreview.com |access-date=3 April 2024}}</ref>]] Independence would mean a much greater change for business than devolution.<ref name=":10">{{Citation |last=Jones |first=Peter |title=CHAPTER 12 A State of Uncertainty |date=2019-08-06 |url=https://www.degruyter.com/document/doi/10.1515/9781474471190-015/html |work=Scottish Independence |pages=219–235 |publisher=Edinburgh University Press |doi=10.1515/9781474471190-015 |isbn=978-1-4744-7119-0 |s2cid=246908893 |access-date=2022-11-13|url-access=subscription }}</ref>{{Rp|page=219}} While Scottish nationalists generally assert that independence would not be economically disruptive, unionists and the UK government tend to assert the opposite.<ref name=":10" />{{Rp|page=231}} Journalist Peter Jones writes that calculating the real economic impacts of independence (i.e. whether Scotland would be richer or poorer outwith the UK) is "an extremely hazard, if not impossible, task".<ref>{{Citation |last=Jones |first=Peter |title=CHAPTER 10 Scotland at the Starting Line |date=2019-08-06 |url=https://www.degruyter.com/document/doi/10.1515/9781474471190-013/html |work=Scottish Independence |pages=179–199 |publisher=Edinburgh University Press |doi=10.1515/9781474471190-013 |isbn=978-1-4744-7119-0 |s2cid=246924762 |access-date=2022-11-13|url-access=subscription }}</ref>
If businesses concluded that independence would yield benefits, there could be positive economic effects. However, if businesses do not, they could postpone spending or investment plans or even leave Scotland entirely.<ref name=":10" />{{Rp|page=219}} Uncertainty caused by independence referendums can also have negative implications for financial markets and the wider economy, depending on the likelihood that separation wins. This uncertainty has impacts not only in Scotland, but in the whole of the UK. Due to the relative size of Scotland in the UK, any negative economic effects would be felt worse in Scotland.<ref name=":10" />{{Rp|page=232}}
Economic modelling by the [[Centre for Economic Performance]] found that independence would hit Scotland's economy ‘two to three times’ harder than Brexit. According to their model, leaving the UK after Brexit could reduce Scottish income per capita between 6.5 per cent and 8.7 per cent, depending on trade barriers. Rejoining the EU would do little to mitigate the costs of Brexit, because the cost of removing trade barriers with the EU is outweighed by the cost of erecting trade barriers with the UK.<ref>{{Cite report |work=[[Centre for Economic Performance]] |publisher=[[London School of Economics]] |last1=Huang |first1=Hanwei |last2=Sampson |first2=Thomas |last3=Schneider |first3=Patrick |date=2021-01-29 |title=Disunited Kingdom? Brexit, trade and Scottish independence |url=https://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/publications/abstract.asp?index=7714 |language=en}}</ref> Scotland's largest trading partner is the rest of the UK, which accounts for £51.2 billion in exported goods and services, compared to only £16.1 billion to EU countries.<ref>{{Cite web |title=Scotland's biggest trading partner continues to be the UK |url=https://www.gov.uk/government/news/scotlands-biggest-trading-partner-continues-to-be-the-uk |access-date=2021-05-16 |website=GOV.UK |language=en}}</ref> According to Nicola Sturgeon, a customs border with the rest of the UK would be needed.<ref>{{Cite web |date=2021-04-25 |title=Independent Scotland would need border with England, Nicola Sturgeon concedes |url=https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/nicola-sturgeon-independent-scotland-border-b1837159.html |access-date=2021-05-16 |website=The Independent |language=en}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |date=2022-06-14 |title=Sturgeon admits border checks will be among post-independence 'issues' |url=https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/nicola-sturgeon-border-independence-scotland-b2100721.html |access-date=2022-11-13 |website=The Independent |language=en}}</ref> 42% of those in Scotland think it would be financially worse off outside the Union (compared to 36% who think it would be better).<ref name=":3" />
==== Natural resources ==== [[File:North Sea oil rig.jpg|thumb|right|An [[Oil platform|oil rig]] in the [[North Sea]]. Oil production is centred in the waters off the Scottish northeast coast]]
The nationalist position is that only an independent Scotland can fully utilise and exploit its national resources, including North Sea oil and gas, for the benefit of its population.<ref>{{cite web |title=What are the benefits of Scotland being independent? - Yes Scotland |url=http://www.yesscotland.net/answers/what-are-benefits-scotland-being-independent |access-date=8 September 2014 |archive-date=5 January 2016 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160105074713/http://www.yesscotland.net/answers/what-are-benefits-scotland-being-independent |url-status=dead }}</ref> According to the Scottish Government led by Alex Salmond in 2014, 64% of the EU's oil reserves existed in Scottish waters,<ref>{{cite web |date=8 April 2014 |title=First Minister: Scotland can be "intellectual powerhouse of green energy" |url=http://news.scotland.gov.uk/News/First-Minister-Scotland-can-be-intellectual-powerhouse-of-green-energy-b42.aspx |access-date=13 June 2014 |website=The Scottish Government |publisher=Crown copyright}}</ref> while the David Hume Institute think tank<ref>{{Cite web |title=The David Hume Institute |url=https://www.davidhumeinstitute.com/ |access-date=2021-06-02 |website=David Hume Institute |language=en-US}}</ref> estimated that "Scotland is sitting on oil and gas reserves worth up to £4 trillion".<ref>{{cite news |author1=Martin Kelly |date=5 May 2013 |title=Scottish oil revenues massively underestimated according to new report |work=Newsnet Scotland |url=http://newsnetscotland.com/index.php/scottish-economy/7320-scottish-oil-revenues-massively-underestimated-according-to-new-report |access-date=13 June 2014}}</ref> Investment in and production from the North Sea oilfields dropped sharply after Conservative chancellor [[George Osborne]] imposed punitive taxes, undercutting the projected revenue an independent Scotland could claim.<ref>{{cite news |date=19 September 2014 |title=Who torpedoed independence? |newspaper=The Economist |url=https://www.economist.com/blogs/blighty/2014/09/scotlands-referendum-0 |access-date=19 September 2014}}</ref>
David Maddox, writing for ''[[The Scotsman]]'' in 2008, pointed to a future [[Peak oil]] decline in [[North Sea oil]] revenue,<ref name="Maddox">{{cite news |last=Maddox |first=David |date=21 June 2008 |title=Oil price fuels fresh row on Scots 'deficit' |work=The Scotsman |location=Edinburgh |url=http://news.scotsman.com/latestnews/Oil-price-fuels-fresh-row.4209389.jp |access-date=25 June 2008}}</ref> within ten years oil revenue had fallen to 10% of the 2008 peak.<ref>{{cite news |date=26 August 2020 |title=Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland (GERS) 2019-2020 |publisher=gov.scot |url=https://www.gov.scot/publications/government-expenditure-revenue-scotland-gers-2019-20/pages/4/}}</ref> Some, such as [[Ruth Davidson]] of the [[Scottish Conservatives]],<ref>{{cite news |last=Carrell |first=Severin |date=26 March 2013 |title=Scottish Tories reverse anti-devolution stance with call for greater powers |work=The Guardian |location=London |url=https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/mar/26/scottish-tories-call-greater-powers |access-date=3 April 2013}}</ref> wish to reduce public spending and devolve more fiscal powers to the Scottish Parliament in order to address this issue within the broader framework of the Union.<ref>{{cite news |last=Gray |first=Louise |date=26 January 2007 |title=Study finds no benefit in fiscal autonomy as McCrone calls time on Barnett |work=The Scotsman |location=Edinburgh |url=http://www.scotsman.com/news/uk/study-finds-no-benefit-in-fiscal-autonomy-as-mccrone-calls-time-on-barnett-1-679580 |access-date=5 January 2016}}</ref><ref>{{cite news |date=14 March 2006 |title='Billions needed' to boost growth |work=BBC News |url=https://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/4803758.stm |access-date=18 August 2007}}</ref><ref>{{cite news |date=15 March 2006 |title=Public/private sectors in economy need to be rebalanced |work=The Scotsman |location=Edinburgh |url=http://www.scotsman.com/news/public-private-sectors-in-economy-need-to-be-rebalanced-1-486122 |access-date=5 January 2016}}</ref> Outlying regions such as [[Constitutional status of Orkney, Shetland and the Western Isles|Orkney, Shetland and the Western Isles]] would be disadvantaged or deserve a greater share of oil revenue.<ref>Tallack, Malachy (2 April 2007) [http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/malachy-tallack/2007/04/shetland-scotland-independence Fair Isle: Independence thinking]. London. ''New Statesman''.</ref><ref>{{cite news |last=Riley-Smith |first=Ben |date=18 March 2014 |title=Shetland and Orkney should get vote on whether to leave Scotland |newspaper=The Daily Telegraph |url=https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/10705477/Shetland-and-Orkney-should-get-vote-on-whether-to-leave-Scotland.html |url-status=live |url-access=subscription |access-date=26 March 2014 |archive-url=https://ghostarchive.org/archive/20220112/https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/10705477/Shetland-and-Orkney-should-get-vote-on-whether-to-leave-Scotland.html |archive-date=12 January 2022}}{{cbignore}}</ref><ref>{{cite news |last=Lawless |first=Jill |date=23 March 2014 |title=Scotland's Vikings go own way in independence vote |work=Associated Press News |url=https://apnews.com/df9487dfda21429c8fe71bdbf5cdcf87 |access-date=9 May 2014}}</ref><ref>{{cite news |date=24 March 2014 |title=Scottish islanders seek votes for own independence |work=Reuters |url=http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-scotland-independence-islands-idUKBREA2N1FV20140324 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160305143906/http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-scotland-independence-islands-idUKBREA2N1FV20140324 |url-status=dead |archive-date=5 March 2016 |access-date=26 March 2014}}</ref><ref name="petition">{{cite web |date=18 March 2014 |title=Island referendum petition launched |url=http://www.shetnews.co.uk/features/scottish-independence-debate/8175-island-referendum-petition-launched |access-date=26 March 2014 |work=[[Shetland Times]] |archive-date=26 March 2014 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140326181036/http://www.shetnews.co.uk/features/scottish-independence-debate/8175-island-referendum-petition-launched |url-status=dead }}</ref><ref>{{cite web |date=19 March 2014 |title=Petition for independence in the Western Isles, Shetland and Orkney |url=http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/petition-for-independence-in-the-western-isles-shetland-and-orkney.23732164 |access-date=26 March 2014 |work=The Herald |publisher=Herald & Times Group}}</ref>{{Excessive citations inline|date=September 2025}}
==== Public finances ==== An independent Scotland would have full autonomy over decisions on tax, spending and borrowing. Scotland would be able to issue [[Government debt|sovereign debt]] and set fiscal limits.<ref name=":9">Scottish Government (2022). [https://www.gov.scot/binaries/content/documents/govscot/publications/research-and-analysis/2022/10/building-new-scotland-stronger-economy-independence/documents/building-new-scotland-stronger-economy-independence/building-new-scotland-stronger-economy-independence/govscot%3Adocument/building-new-scotland-stronger-economy-independence.pdf A stronger economy with independence]. Edinburgh, October 2022. Retrieved 12 November 2022.</ref> According to the Scottish Government, it is clear that Scotland currently pays its way within the UK.<ref name="scotland.gov.uk" /> The Scottish Government has proposed setting up a 'New Scotland Fund' to provide capital investment and boost growth. According to the charity ''[[Institute for Fiscal Studies]]'', this fund would likely need to be funded by additional borrowing.<ref>{{Cite web |title=An immediate response to the Scottish Government's paper on independence and the Scottish economy |url=https://ifs.org.uk/news/immediate-response-scottish-governments-paper-independence-and-scottish-economy |access-date=2022-11-12 |website=Institute for Fiscal Studies |language=en}}</ref>
In 2012, the Scottish Government's Finance Secretary [[John Swinney]] prepared a [[John Swinney#Report into economic effects of Scottish independence|confidential cabinet briefing paper]] on the financial impact of Scottish independence. The report warned that an independent Scotland would face public spending cuts, lower pensions and welfare spending, and high levels of debt. The paper indicated that an independent Scotland would face a significant budget deficit of £28 billion, and would inherit a higher proportion of the UK national debt than ministers had publicly acknowledged, with debt interest payments potentially costing taxpayers in Scotland £5.2 billion in 2016-17. The report warned that Scotland's public finances would be heavily dependent on volatile and declining oil revenues, and suggested that the affordability of the state pension in an independent Scotland would be at risk. The report further warned that the SNP's plans for an oil fund under independence would "require some downward revision in current spending."<ref>{{cite news |url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-21679760 |title=Scottish independence: SNP's Swinney admits to economic challenges |work=BBC News |date=6 March 2013 |access-date=28 April 2026}}</ref><ref name="Leaked paper shows SNP fears over cost of benefits">{{cite news |url=https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/13094979.leaked-paper-shows-snp-fears-cost-benefits/ |title=Leaked paper shows SNP fears over cost of benefits |work=The Herald |date=7 March 2013 |access-date=28 April 2026}}</ref><ref>{{cite news |last1=Clegg |first1=David |url=https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/snp-dossier-reveals-pensions-could-1748133 |title=SNP dossier reveals pensions could be cut to plug £28bn oil black hole in independent Scotland |work=Daily Record |date=7 March 2013 |access-date=28 April 2026}}</ref><ref>{{cite news |last1=Jones |first1=Peter |last2=McIntosh |first2=Lindsay |url=https://www.thetimes.com/travel/destinations/uk-travel/scotland-travel/swinneys-secret-report-reveals-a-nation-in-debt-vvgjhbv793h |title=Swinney's secret report reveals a nation in debt |work=The Times |date=7 March 2013 |access-date=28 April 2026}}</ref> Swinney's cabinet paper was kept secret before being leaked to the press in 2013, a year after it was drafted. In her 2025 memoir ''[[Frankly]]'', [[Nicola Sturgeon]], who had served as Deputy First Minister at the time, acknowledged that Swinney's leaked briefing paper had encouraged the Scottish Government to "cast the opening finances of an independent Scotland in as positive a light as possible", and admitted that government economists had been pressured to push their projections of oil revenues higher.<ref>{{cite book |last=Sturgeon |first=Nicola |date=19 August 2025 |title=Frankly |publisher=Pan Macmillan |location= United Kingdom |isbn=9781035040247 |url=https://www.google.co.uk/books/edition/Frankly/-4TPEAAAQBAJ?hl=en&gbpv=1&dq=Nevertheless,+the+leak+made+us+determined+to+cast+the+opening+finances+of+an+independent+Scotland+in+as+positive+a+light+as+possible.+Crucial+to+that+were+the+projections+we+would+make+for+future+oil+revenues.+Back+then,+oil+prices+were+high,+but,+even+so+Alex+spent+a+lot+of+time+persuading+the+government+economists+to+push+their+projections+higher,+taking+them+to+the+outer+edges+of+credibility.&pg=RA1-PT124&printsec=frontcover |quote= Nevertheless, the leak made us determined to cast the opening finances of an independent Scotland in as positive a light as possible. Crucial to that were the projections we would make for future oil revenues. Back then, oil prices were high, but, even so Alex [Salmond] spent a lot of time persuading the government economists to push their projections higher, taking them to the outer edges of credibility.|access-date=28 April 2026}}</ref>
According to an analysis by the ''Financial Times'', an independent Scotland would have a large hole in its public finances. The paper's analysis suggests this would be due to the combined effect of lower than expected tax revenues, Brexit and the [[COVID-19 pandemic]], which have increased the country's budget deficit.<ref name=":1">{{Cite news |last1=Giles |first1=Chris |last2=Dickie |first2=Mure |date=2 April 2021 |title=Independent Scotland would face a large hole in its public finances |website=Financial Times |location=London and Edinburgh |url=https://www.ft.com/content/ff6c0f6b-2d65-4a4e-bbba-878e2260cf3e |archive-url=https://ghostarchive.org/archive/20221210/https://www.ft.com/content/ff6c0f6b-2d65-4a4e-bbba-878e2260cf3e |archive-date=10 December 2022 |url-access=subscription |url-status=live |access-date=2021-05-23}}</ref> A publication by the charity ''Institute for Fiscal Studies'' claims that in 2020-21 (during the COVID-19 pandemic), the national deficit of Scotland was between 22% and 25% of national income, though this is predicted to fall after the pandemic.<ref name=Phi21>{{Cite web |last=Phillips |first=David |date=2021-04-29 |title=Updated projections of Scotland's fiscal position - and their implications |url=https://www.ifs.org.uk/publications/15418 |access-date=2021-05-23 |website=www.ifs.org.uk}}</ref> The same publication claims that if it leaves the UK by the middle of the decade, Scotland would have a deficit of almost 10 per cent of GDP. If correct, this would mean Scotland would need to raise taxes or cut public spending<ref name=Phi21/> by the equivalent of £1765 per person after independence to make the deficit sustainable.<ref name=":1" /> Short-term forecasts of public spending are inherently uncertain, but can still provide useful predictions.<ref>{{Cite web |title=What might the public finances of an independent Scotland look like? |url=https://www.economicsobservatory.com/what-might-the-public-finances-of-an-independent-scotland-look-like |access-date=2022-11-12 |website=Economics Observatory |language=en}}</ref> A report published by the [[Sustainable Growth Commission]] set up by the SNP to make recommendations on the economy of an independent Scotland stated that the deficit would need to be cut to 3 per cent of GDP.<ref>{{Cite report |url=https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5afc0bbbf79392ced8b73dbf/t/5b0a988c352f53c0a5132a23/1527421195436/SGC+Full+Report.pdf |title=Scotland - the new case for optimism |date=May 2018 |publisher=Sustainable Growth Commission (Scotland) |archive-date=5 March 2021 |access-date=23 May 2021 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210305083414/https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5afc0bbbf79392ced8b73dbf/t/5b0a988c352f53c0a5132a23/1527421195436/SGC+Full+Report.pdf |url-status=dead }}</ref>
==== Currency ==== {{see also|Irish pound#Second pound}} [[File:Museum on the mound, Edinburgh (41404375864).jpg|thumb|right|The [[Bank of Scotland]], one of the world's oldest banks]] Before the 2014 referendum, there were questions over the currency of an independent Scotland and whether it would continue to use the [[Pound sterling]], adopt the [[Euro]], or introduce a Scottish currency (often referred to as the "Scottish pound"<ref name="Green">{{Cite web |last=Green |first=Chris |date=2022-10-07 |title=Plan for 'Scottish pound' to be announced next week, Nicola Sturgeon reveals |url=https://inews.co.uk/news/scotland/scottish-independence-plan-pound-announced-next-week-1899398 |access-date=2022-10-08 |website=inews.co.uk |language=en}}</ref>). Uncertainty could be brought in the immediate aftermath of independence, particularly disagreement as to how Scotland would be treated in relation to the [[European Union]], and the unlikelihood of the Bank of England accepting a [[currency union]] with an independent Scotland.<ref>{{cite web |title=The European Union and the United Kingdom Union |url=http://bettertogether.net/blog/entry/the-european-union-and-the-united-kingdom-union |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20131024091614/http://bettertogether.net/blog/entry/the-european-union-and-the-united-kingdom-union |archive-date=24 October 2013 |access-date=18 October 2013 |publisher=Better Together}}</ref><ref>{{cite web |title=Nationalist plans on currency and tax are falling apart |url=http://bettertogether.net/blog/entry/nationalist-plans-on-currency-and-tax-are-falling-apart |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20131024091617/http://bettertogether.net/blog/entry/nationalist-plans-on-currency-and-tax-are-falling-apart |archive-date=24 October 2013 |access-date=18 October 2013 |publisher=Better Together}}</ref> The chairman of [[HSBC]], [[Douglas Flint]], warned in August 2014 of uncertainty if there was an independent Scottish currency, or if Scotland joined the [[Eurozone]], which could result in [[capital flight]].<ref name="ScotlandHSBC">{{cite news |date=23 August 2014 |title=Weak Scottish currency will cause capital flight after independence says HSBC boss |publisher=Scotland News.Net |url=http://www.scotlandnews.net/index.php/sid/225040621 |access-date=23 August 2014}}</ref> In 2018, the SNP suggested keeping the pound for a period after Scottish independence. Dame [[DeAnne Julius]], a founding member of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee, has called this a "hugely risky experiment for Scotland".<ref>{{Cite web |title=SNP's independence currency plan branded 'a hugely risky experiment' |url=https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/19074877.snps-independence-currency-plan-branded-a-hugely-risky-experiment/ |access-date=2021-05-16 |website=HeraldScotland |date=8 February 2021 |language=en}}</ref>
Nicola Sturgeon announced in October 2022 her intention for Scotland to continue using the pound sterling after independence. Monetary policy in this period would be set by the [[Bank of England]]. Scotland would subsequently develop a central Scottish bank and would move to a Scottish pound "when the economic conditions were right".<ref name="Green"/><ref>{{Cite web |last1=Murden |first1=Terry |date=October 8, 2022 |title=Sturgeon confirms plan for Scottish pound |url=http://dailybusinessgroup.co.uk/2022/10/sturgeon-confirms-plan-for-scottish-pound/ |access-date=2022-10-08 |website=Daily Business |language=en-GB}}</ref> The establishment of a Scottish pound would be at the decision of the Scottish Parliament, once the Scottish Central Bank has established credibility, foreign exchange reserves are sufficient and Scotland is fiscally sustainable. The Scottish pound could run on a fixed or floating exchange rate.<ref name=":9" />
=== Defence === {{See also|Armed forces in Scotland}} [[File:Soldiers Patrolling in Afghanistan MOD 45154539.jpg|thumb|right|Soldiers of the [[Royal Regiment of Scotland]], the senior and only current Scottish line infantry regiment of the British Army Infantry]] With control over defence and foreign policy, an independent Scotland could demand the removal of [[Trident (UK nuclear programme)|Trident]] nuclear weapons, which are based in the [[Firth of Clyde]]. Nuclear disarmament is an issue long associated with the campaign for an independent Scotland, as outlined in the House of Commons Defence Committee's white paper "The future of the UK's strategic nuclear deterrent: the White Paper" of 2006–2007.<ref name="Committee2007">{{cite book |author=Great Britain: Parliament: House of Commons: Defence Committee |url=https://books.google.com/books?id=XKMfYAUzOWgC&pg=PA167 |title=The future of the UK's strategic nuclear deterrent: the White Paper, ninth report of session 2006-07, Vol. 2: Oral and written evidence |date=7 March 2007 |publisher=The Stationery Office |isbn=978-0-215-03280-5 |pages=167–}}</ref><ref>"The Modern SNP: From Protest to Power", edited by [[Gerry Hassan]], Edinburgh University Press: Edinburgh, p. 29 and p. 156</ref> The [[Scottish Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament]] supports independence on this basis.<ref>{{cite news |date=19 November 2012 |title=Scots CND backs Yes campaign |work=Herald Scotland |agency=Herald & Times Group |url=http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/scots-cnd-backs-yes-campaign.19448929 |access-date=13 June 2014}}</ref>
Scottish voters are in favour of the Trident nuclear deterrent being in Scotland. Even in the event of a vote for independence, 45 per cent of Scots polled in 2022 think the nuclear deterrent should be maintained in Scotland, compared to 34 percent against.<ref>{{Cite web |title=Voters in favour of an independent Scotland keeping Trident - poll |url=https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/20166814.scots-favour-keeping-trident-country-goes-independent---poll/ |access-date=2022-11-04 |website=HeraldScotland |date=26 May 2022 |language=en}}</ref> While in the Union, 58% of Scots believe in the retention of the nuclear deterrent and only 20% definitely want it axed.<ref name=":7">{{Cite web |last=Allison |first=George |date=2022-05-10 |title=Majority of Scots back keeping Trident according to poll |url=https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/majority-of-scots-back-keeping-trident-according-to-poll/ |access-date=2022-11-04 |language=en-GB}}</ref> In the event that Scottish independence meant the nuclear deterrent could no longer be in Scotland, there is a risk that the costs of relocation would make keeping a nuclear deterrent in the British Isles unfeasible.<ref name="lowyinstitute.org">{{Cite web |title=Scottish independence and the implications for British defence {{!}} Lowy Institute |url=https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/scottish-independence-and-implications-british-defence |access-date=2022-11-04 |website=www.lowyinstitute.org |language=en}}</ref> In 2019, the NATO Secretary General said the maintenance of a British nuclear deterrent is important to NATO.<ref>{{Cite web |date=2019-12-01 |title=Nicola Sturgeon warned: Trident is important to Nato |url=https://www.scotsman.com/news/uk-news/nicola-sturgeon-warned-trident-important-nato-1400971 |access-date=2022-11-04 |website=www.scotsman.com |language=en}}</ref> In 2022, 73% of Scots wanted an independent Scotland to be part of NATO and only 8% did not.<ref>{{Cite web |last=Allison |first=George |date=2022-05-26 |title=Second poll this month claims most Scots support Trident |url=https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/second-poll-this-month-claims-most-scots-support-trident/ |access-date=2022-11-04 |language=en-GB}}</ref>
Scotland is said to benefit from a collective defence force and an independent Scotland would weaken the UK's defence posture.<ref name="lowyinstitute.org"/> There are many UK defence installations in Scotland other than Trident and many Scottish people serve in the British Armed Forces. There are 12,000 service personnel in Scotland and a further 18,500 civilian jobs in the armed forces defence industry. It is expected Scotland would lose defence jobs. For example, [[Alan West, Baron West of Spithead|Lord West]] said Scotland could lose 20,000 or 25,000 jobs.<ref>{{Cite web |last=Economic Affairs Committee Contents |title=Chapter 6: Scottish independence and defence: the economic impact - Economic Implications for the United Kingdom of Scottish Independence |url=https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201213/ldselect/ldeconaf/152/15208.htm |access-date=4 November 2022 |website=parliament.uk}}</ref>
In 2014, a UK Government report stated that Scotland "plays an integral part in all aspects of the UK's defence". The report said the new Scottish Government would need to set up much defence infrastructure and services from scratch, and that existing defence assets in Scotland are well integrated into a UK-wide defence structure. According to the UK Government, it would be difficult for an independent Scotland to co-opt existing UK armed force units based or recruited in Scotland.<ref>{{Cite report |url=https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/248654/Scotland_analysis_Defence_paper-FINAL.pdf |title=Scotland analysis: Defence |last=HM Government |date=October 2013}}</ref>
=== Foreign affairs === {{See also|International relations of Scotland}}[[File:Scotland (independent) in Europe.png|thumb|right|Scotland in [[Europe]]]] Under the Scottish Government's 2014 plans for independence, Scotland would have applied to become a full and equal member of the United Nations, [[NATO]] and the [[European Union]] and many other international organisations.<ref name="scotland.gov.uk">{{cite web |date=26 November 2013 |title=Scotland's Future |url=http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2013/11/9348/0 |access-date=13 June 2014 |website=The Scottish Government |publisher=Crown Copyright}}</ref> With an [[wikt:autonomous|autonomous]] voice in international politics, Scottish independence campaigners believe the nation's global influence would increase in regard to the defence of its national interests and the promotion of its values. Furthermore, Scottish embassies could be established globally to promote Scotland internationally, and to lobby other governments on the nation's behalf.<ref name="scotland.gov.uk" />
During the 2014 referendum, a major argument against independence was that Scotland would be outside the EU.<ref>{{cite web |title=Scottish independence: Would Scotland be in the EU after a Yes vote? |url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-26173004 |website=BBC News |access-date=13 September 2025 |date=29 April 2014}}</ref> Scotland is very supportive of EU membership, with 62% voting to remain in the [[2016 EU referendum]]. Since [[Brexit]], many have called for a second independence referendum to have a chance to re-enter the EU.<ref>{{cite news |date=22 March 2021 |title=Scottish independence: Will there be a second referendum? |publisher=[[BBC News]] |url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-50813510}}</ref>
As part of the UK, Scotland is part of [[NATO]], the [[G7]], and as a permanent member of the [[UN Security Council]]. In a 2022 poll, 82% of Scots believed that UK membership of these organisations is important.<ref name=":7" /> Opponents of further integration of the European Union have stated that independence, within Europe but outside the ''[[EU three]]'', would mean that Scotland would be more marginalised because, as a relatively small independent country, Scotland would be unable to resist the demands of larger member states.<ref>{{cite magazine |date=5 January 2007 |title=Scottish Independence – Reality or Illusion? |url=http://www.globalpolitician.com/articledes.asp?ID=2725&cid=3&sid=74 |magazine=Global Politician |access-date=20 June 2007}}</ref>
=== Links with the rest of the UK === [[File:British Irish Council meeting in Glasgow.jpg|thumb|right|Scotland has been a member of the [[British-Irish Council]] since 1999, an intergovernmental organisation that aims to improve collaboration between its members]] There are strong historical and contemporary ties between Scotland and the rest of the UK from the [[Scottish Reformation|Reformation]] and [[Union of Crowns]], to Scottish involvement in the growth and development of the [[British Empire]]<ref>{{cite web |title=Colonial histories and legacies in our museums |url=https://www.nms.ac.uk/collections/colonial-histories-and-legacies |website=National Museums Scotland |access-date=13 September 2025 |language=en}}</ref> and contribution of the [[Scottish Enlightenment]] and [[Industrial Revolution]]. Contemporary popular culture is also shared, primarily through the prevalence of the English language. Almost half of the Scottish population have relatives in England.<ref>{{cite news |date=17 February 2008 |title=The Union Jocks |newspaper=Scotland on Sunday |url=http://scotlandonsunday.scotsman.com/opinion/The-Union-Jocks.3786184.jp |access-date=25 June 2008}}</ref> At the time of the 2011 census, approximately 700,000 adults who were born in Scotland lived in the rest of the UK, while about 470,000 adults who were born elsewhere in the UK had moved to live in Scotland.<ref>{{Cite news |last1=Eardley |first1=Nick |date=7 August 2014 |title=Scottish independence: The Scots in England who want Scotland to go it alone |newspaper=BBC News |url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-27655496 |access-date=8 September 2014}}</ref> There are also significant economic links with the Scottish [[military-industrial complex]],<ref>{{cite news |last=Gray |first=Louise |date=27 July 2007 |title=Doubts raised over future of shipyards under independence |work=The Scotsman |location=Edinburgh |url=http://news.scotsman.com/scotland.cfm?id=1171132007 |access-date=20 August 2007}}</ref> and as argued by [[David Cameron]], close links within the financial sector.<ref>{{cite news |date=11 April 2007 |title=Scots and English flourish in the Union |work=The Daily Telegraph |location=London |url=https://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/personal-view/3639114/Scots-and-English-flourish-in-the-Union.html |url-status=live |url-access=subscription |access-date=20 June 2007 |archive-url=https://ghostarchive.org/archive/20220112/https://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/personal-view/3639114/Scots-and-English-flourish-in-the-Union.html |archive-date=12 January 2022}}{{cbignore}}</ref>
In ''Scotland's Future'', the Scottish Government wrote that an independent Scotland would "not affect the many other ties that bind Scotland to the other nations of the UK" and that there will still be a social union of family, history, culture and language within the British Isles.<ref name="scotland.gov.uk" />{{Rp|page=215}} The UK Government wrote that a relationship of two sovereign states based on self-interest is 'profoundly differently' from being part of one state, and thus any co-operation would need to be in the interest of the rest of the UK, as well as Scotland.<ref name=":0" /> In the ''[[Building a New Scotland]]'' series of papers, published to support the argument for independence in a proposed second independence referendum, the Scottish Government advocates that "independence would mark a new phase in the evolution of Scotland’s relationships with the UK and Ireland. While the ‘social union’ of shared histories, sport, culture, languages, and family ties would continue as before, a renewed Scottish democracy would be a force for good across these islands". The Scottish Government advocates that an independent Scotland "will have close, mutually beneficial relationships across these islands on defence and security matters".<ref name="gov.scot">{{cite web |title=Independence and regional and international cooperation |url=https://www.gov.scot/publications/building-new-scotland-independent-scotlands-place-world/pages/10/#:~:text=Independence%20would%20mark%20a%20new,for%20good%20across%20these%20islands. |website=www.gov.scot |access-date=3 April 2024 |language=en}}</ref>
The Scottish Government proposes that a reformed [[British-Irish Council]] would "provide a formal forum for managing some of these relationships, complementing regular bilateral discussions".<ref name="gov.scot"/>
Another [[Constitutional reform in the United Kingdom|constitutional reform]] option, a [[Confederal United Kingdom|confederation]], where the [[countries of the United Kingdom]]; England, [[Scotland]], [[Wales]], as well as [[Northern Ireland]], become separate [[Sovereign state|sovereign groups or states]] that pool certain key resources within a [[Confederation|confederal system]], has been proposed as an alternative, particularly in the context of [[Welsh independence]].<ref name="A new model for the UK">{{Cite web |last=Cennydd Jones |first=Glyndwr |date=11 October 2019 |title=A new model for the UK? |url=https://www.iwa.wales/agenda/2019/10/a-new-model-for-the-uk/ |access-date=8 April 2022 |website=Institute of Welsh Affairs |language=en-US}}</ref>
Beginning close to the time of the 2014 referendum, it became a topic of discussion across British news outlets that [[Doncaster]] in [[South Yorkshire]], England has a claim to belonging to [[Scotland]], by technicality. This originates from the [[Treaty of Durham (1136)|1136]] and [[Battle of the Standard#Another peace agreement|1139]] Treaties of Durham, in which [[David I of Scotland]] and his son [[Henry of Scotland|Henry]] were granted the Lordship of Doncaster by [[Stephen of England]] to dissuade David from invading England. Historians observed that no known agreement in writing ever returned to Doncaster to England, unlike other territory offered from the north by Stephen, which is more commonly documented as being returned as a condition of the [[Malcolm IV of Scotland#Malcolm IV and Henry II|1157 Treaty of Chester]].<ref>{{Cite web |date=2025-01-12 |title=Why an historical anomaly means 'Bonny Donny' could leave the UK too |url=https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11104004/Why-an-historical-anomaly-means-Bonny-Donny-could-leave-the-UK-too.html |access-date=2025-01-12 |website=The Telegraph |language=en-GB}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |date=2025-01-12 |title=The 'Scottish' town stranded in England |url=https://www.bbc.com/travel/article/20211019-the-scottish-town-stranded-in-england |access-date=2025-01-12 |website=BBC Travel |language=en-GB}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |date=2025-01-12 |title=Malcolm IV |url=https://www.britannica.com/biography/Malcolm-IV |access-date=2025-01-12 |website=Encyclopedia Britannica |language=en-GB}}</ref>
=== Comparison to Brexit === The ''Centre for Constitutional Change'' stated during the 2016 EU referendum campaign that the "international relations aspect of the Brexit debate looks somewhat similar to the debate about Scottish independence".<ref>{{Cite web |title=As others see us: The striking similarities between Brexit and Scottish independence debates |url=https://www.centreonconstitutionalchange.ac.uk/opinions/others-see-us-striking-similarities-between-brexit-and-scottish-independence-debates |access-date=2021-05-28 |website=Centre on Constitutional Change |language=en}}</ref> There is no agreed process for Scottish independence and there would be no negotiations of the terms of independence before a positive referendum result.<ref>{{Cite web |title=House of Lords - Scottish independence: constitutional implications of the referendum - Constitution Committee |url=https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201314/ldselect/ldconst/188/18807.htm |access-date=2021-05-23 |website=publications.parliament.uk |quote=Moreover, unless and until a "yes" vote is delivered, neither the UK nor the Scottish government have any mandate to negotiate independence.}}</ref> [[Ruth Davidson]] has described "independence because of Brexit" as "amputating your foot because you've stubbed your toe".<ref>{{Cite web |date=3 March 2017 |title=10 reasons against Scottish independence |url=https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/10-reasons-against-scottish-independence-1454805 |access-date=2021-05-16 |website=www.scotsman.com |language=en}}</ref> The common use of the term Brexit has led some sources to describe Scottish independence as '''Scexit''',<ref>{{Cite web |date=2021-05-12 |title=Scottish elections: the problems with Scexit |url=https://www.theparliamentmagazine.eu/news/article/scottish-elections-the-problems-with-scexit |access-date=2021-05-28 |website=The Parliament Magazine |language=en}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |date=6 February 2021 |title=Nationalists must face the economic reality that Scottish independence would be much worse than Brexit – Brian Wilson |url=https://www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/columnists/scottish-independence-economic-reality-scexit-would-be-much-worse-brexit-brian-wilson-3125247 |access-date=2021-05-28 |website=www.scotsman.com |language=en}}</ref><ref>{{Cite news |last=Schindler |first=Jörg |date=4 May 2021 |title=A Fateful Election in Scotland: After Brexit Could Come Scexit |language=en |newspaper=Der Spiegel |url=https://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/a-fateful-election-in-scotland-after-brexit-could-come-scexit-a-cdac4820-17f6-44b9-988a-7abf84cf261d |access-date=2021-05-28}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |last=Ferry |first=John |date=23 April 2021 |title=Sturgeon has no credible answers on economics of Scexit {{!}} The Spectator |url=https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/sturgeon-has-no-credible-answers-on-economics-of-scexit |access-date=2021-05-28 |website=www.spectator.co.uk |language=en}}</ref> a portmanteau of Scotland + exit.<ref>{{Cite web |title=SCEXIT (noun) definition and synonyms {{!}} Macmillan Dictionary |url=https://www.macmillandictionary.com/dictionary/british/scexit |access-date=2021-05-28 |website=www.macmillandictionary.com |language=en}}</ref>
==Support for independence== [[File:Scottish independence rally 2018 Largs.jpg|thumb|right|Pro-independence rally in [[Glasgow]], 2018]] Scottish independence is supported most prominently by the [[Scottish National Party]], but other parties also support independence. Other pro-independence parties which have held representation in the Scottish Parliament or the UK Parliament include the [[Scottish Greens]],<ref>{{cite news |url=https://www.ft.com/content/47aa8386-5b1a-11e7-9bc8-8055f264aa8b |archive-url=https://ghostarchive.org/archive/20221210/https://www.ft.com/content/47aa8386-5b1a-11e7-9bc8-8055f264aa8b |archive-date=10 December 2022 |url-access=subscription |title=Sturgeon postpones plans for second Scottish independence referendum |first=Mure |last=Dickie |date=27 June 2017 |access-date=24 September 2017 |work=Financial Times }}</ref> the [[Alba Party]] and the [[Scottish Socialist Party]]. Other parties which support Scottish independence include the [[Independence for Scotland Party]], the [[Scottish Libertarian Party]], and [[Sovereignty (Scotland)|Sovereignty]].<ref>{{Cite news |last=Crow |first=Allan |date=2 May 2022 |title=Sovereignty political party makes council election debut in Fife |url=https://www.fifetoday.co.uk/news/politics/council/sovereignty-political-party-makes-council-election-debut-in-fife-3677206 |access-date=15 June 2025 |work=Fife Today}}</ref> At the [[2021 Scottish Parliament election]], 72 of the 129 seats available were won by pro-independence parties (64 SNP and 8 Greens). The independence movement consists of many factions with varying political views. The SNP wants Scotland to keep the monarchy (see [[personal union]]) and become an independent [[Commonwealth realm]], similar to Canada, Australia or New Zealand. All of the other aforementioned pro-independence parties want Scotland to become an independent republic. The SSP has led republican protests and authored the [[Declaration of Calton Hill]], calling for an independent republic.<ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2004/oct/10/scotland.devolution |title= Holyrood survives birth pains |work=The Guardian | date=10 October 2004|access-date=21 June 2007 | location=London | first=Lorna | last=Martin}}</ref>
The [[Scottish Independence Convention|Independence Convention]] was set up in 2005, seeking "Firstly, to create a forum for those of all political persuasions and none who support independence; and secondly, to be a national catalyst for Scottish independence."<ref>{{cite news |url=https://www.theguardian.com/uk/scotland-blog/2012/jun/22/scottish-independence-campaign-groups |title=The claymore count: the groups fighting for and against Scottish independence |first=Severin |last=Carrell |work=The Guardian |date=22 June 2012 |access-date= 29 March 2015}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.scottishindependenceconvention.com/Introduction.asp |title= Introduction: Aims and Questions |publisher=Scottish Independence Convention |access-date=4 July 2007}}</ref> The [[Scottish Republican Socialist Movement]] is a Pan-Socialist independence movement that believes that Scotland should be made an independent republic. This movement has a Firebrand socialist ethos, however is not affiliated with the SSP or the Scottish Communist Party. It believes that a failure to become independent should lead to mass emigration elsewhere, or as put as a slogan "Independence or Desertion".
Apart from the official [[Yes Scotland]] campaign for independence in the 2014 referendum, other groups in support of independence were formed at that time. This included the [[National Collective]], an artist-driven movement which describes itself as "an open and non-party political collaboration of talent focused on driving social and political change in Scotland through a variety of the arts".<ref>{{cite web|title=About Us|url=http://nationalcollective.com/about-us/|access-date=13 February 2013}}</ref> It was responsible for organising a mock referendum held at the [[University of Glasgow]] in February 2013.<ref>{{cite news|title=Scottish independence: Glasgow University students plan ballot|url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-21066510|date=18 January 2013|access-date=13 February 2013|work=BBC News}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|title=Join the Debate: Glasgow Launches Independence Referendum|url=http://nationalcollective.com/2013/01/18/join-the-debate-glasgow-launches-independence-referendum/|date=18 January 2013|access-date=13 February 2013}}</ref> Another group, the [[Radical Independence Campaign]], described itself as "fighting for an independent Scotland that is for the millions not the millionaires". RIC was formed after the Radical Independence Conference 2012 in Glasgow, which was attended by at least 650 people and has been described as a "[bringing together of] the Scottish Greens, the Scottish Socialists, some of the more militant trade unionists, nuclear-disarmament campaigners and anti-monarchist republicans".<ref>{{cite news|title=Radicals threaten Salmond and Scottish independence campaign |url=https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/radicals-threaten-salmond-and-scottish-independence-campaign-8347545.html|date=24 November 2012|access-date=13 February 2013|location=London|work=The Independent}}</ref>
During the 2014 referendum campaign, independence attracted little support from newspapers. The ''[[Sunday Herald]]'' was the only publication to endorse a "Yes" vote in the referendum.<ref name="national" /><ref>[http://www.holdthefrontpage.co.uk/2014/news/scottish-newspapers-divide-over-referendum-vote/ "Scottish newspapers divide over referendum vote"]. HoldTheFrontPage.co.uk. 16 September 2014.</ref> ''[[The National (Scotland)|The National]]'', a daily newspaper supporting independence, was launched in November 2014, in wake of the Yes Scotland campaign's defeat.<ref name="national">{{cite news |url=https://www.theguardian.com/media/2014/nov/24/the-national-scotland-newsquest-pro-independence |title=The National launches in Scotland 'to fly flag for independence' |work=The Guardian |date=24 November 2014 |access-date=30 March 2015}}</ref>
In October 2014, the lobby group [[All Under One Banner]] (AUOB) was formed. AUOB stages regular public marches in support of Scottish independence throughout Scotland.
Proponents of Brexit and Scotland's independence share relatively similar, but incompatible, objectives and difficulties.<ref>{{Cite journal|doi=10.1080/11926422.2019.1617759|title=Rival economic nationalisms: Brexit and the Scottish independence movement compared|year=2020|last1=Rioux|first1=X. Hubert|journal=Canadian Foreign Policy Journal|volume=26|pages=8–24|s2cid=191854170}}</ref> Despite this, those who voted for Brexit in 2016 tend to be more unionist than those who voted to remain. The BBC reported that 39% of those who voted Leave in 2016 would vote Yes, while 59% of those who voted Remain would do the same.<ref name=":3" />
On 14 October 2025, [[Zack Polanski]], the [[Leader of the Green Party of England and Wales|leader]] of the [[Green Party of England and Wales]] announced his support for both Scottish and [[Welsh independence]] with the [[Scottish Greens]] publishing a statement shortly after that "Every vote for Greens is vote for independence."<ref>{{cite web |title=Every vote for Greens is vote for independence |url=https://greens.scot/news/every-vote-for-greens-is-vote-for-independence |website=[[Scottish Greens]] |access-date=18 October 2025}}</ref><ref>{{cite web |last1=Garton-Crosbie |first1=Abbi |title=Zack Polanski backs Scottish and Welsh independence |url=https://www.thenational.scot/news/25542694.zack-polanski-backs-scottish-welsh-independence/ |website=[[The National (Scotland)|The National]] |date=15 October 2025 |access-date=18 October 2025}}</ref>
==Unionism== {{Main|Unionism in Scotland}}
[[File:Scottish_Referendum_-_No_thanks_sign.jpg|thumb|A "No thanks" sign from the 2014 anti-independence referendum campaign]] The [[Conservative Party (UK)|Conservative Party]], [[Labour Party (UK)|Labour Party]] and [[Liberal Democrats (UK)|Liberal Democrats]], which all have seats in the [[Scottish Parliament]], are in favour of unionism. In 2012 they established the cross-party [[Better Together (campaign)|Better Together]] campaign. Other parties that oppose Scottish independence include the [[UK Independence Party]] (UKIP),<ref>{{cite news|author=Mark Aitken |url=http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/ukip-leader-nigel-farage-insists-1884127 |title=UKIP leader Nigel Farage insists he will play a key role in the campaign against Scottish independence |newspaper=Daily Record |date=12 May 2013 |access-date=18 October 2013}}</ref><ref name = scotsman2021>{{cite news |url=https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/scottish-election-2021-who-are-the-20-smaller-parties-running-for-holyrood-including-scottish-family-party-abolish-the-scottish-parliament-party-and-alba-3226016 |title=Scottish Election 2021: Who are the 20 smaller parties running for Holyrood including Scottish Family Party, Abolish the Scottish Parliament Party and Alba? |first=Hannah |last=Brown |newspaper=The Scotsman |date=5 May 2021 |access-date=9 May 2021}}</ref> [[All for Unity]],<ref name = scotsman2021/> [[Reform UK]],<ref name = scotsman2021/> [[Abolish the Scottish Parliament Party|Abolish the Scottish Parliament]],<ref name = scotsman2021/> the [[British National Party]] (BNP),<ref>{{cite web|title=Why does Scotland matter?|url=http://www.bnp.org.uk/news/national/why-does-scotland-matter|publisher=British National Party|access-date=26 August 2014|date=27 July 2014|url-status=dead|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140826203754/http://www.bnp.org.uk/news/national/why-does-scotland-matter|archive-date=26 August 2014}}</ref> [[Britain First]],{{efn|De-registered by the Electoral Commission in February 2017}}<ref>Britain First official website. [https://www.britainfirst.org/statement-of-principles-2/ Statement of Principles] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20141009014543/http://www.britainfirst.org/statement-of-principles-2/ |date=9 October 2014 }}. "Britain First is a movement of British Unionism. We support the continued unity of the United Kingdom whilst recognising the individual identity and culture of the peoples of England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. We abhor and oppose all trends that threaten the integrity of the Union". Retrieved 8 July 2014.</ref> the [[Scottish Unionist Party (1986)|Scottish Unionist Party]] (SUP), and the [[Unionism in Ireland|Ulster unionist]] parties.
[[Scotland in Union]] is a campaign group established in 2015 following the independence referendum. It has encouraged [[tactical voting]] in elections and a positive outlook on unionism.<ref name = "scotland in union">{{Cite news|url=https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11444202/New-pro-Union-campaign-to-identify-seats-where-tactical-voting-could-defeat-SNP.html |archive-url=https://ghostarchive.org/archive/20220112/https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11444202/New-pro-Union-campaign-to-identify-seats-where-tactical-voting-could-defeat-SNP.html |archive-date=12 January 2022 |url-access=subscription |url-status=live|title=New pro-Union campaign to identify seats where tactical voting could defeat SNP|date=2 March 2015|work=The Telegraph|last1=Cramb|first1=Auslan}}{{cbignore}}</ref><ref>{{Cite news|url=https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11453045/Unionists-can-hold-back-the-SNP-if-they-act-together.html |archive-url=https://ghostarchive.org/archive/20220112/https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11453045/Unionists-can-hold-back-the-SNP-if-they-act-together.html |archive-date=12 January 2022 |url-access=subscription |url-status=live|title=Unionists can hold back the SNP 'if they act together'|date=6 March 2015|work=The Telegraph|last1=Johnson|first1=Simon}}{{cbignore}}</ref><ref>{{Cite news|url=https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/11516292/How-the-tactical-voting-tables-stand.html |archive-url=https://ghostarchive.org/archive/20220112/https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/11516292/How-the-tactical-voting-tables-stand.html |archive-date=12 January 2022 |url-access=subscription |url-status=live|title=Anti-SNP tactical voting: can it hold back the nationalist tide?|date=5 March 2015|work=The Telegraph|last1=Gilligan|first1=Andrew}}{{cbignore}}</ref> In late 2017, a new campaign group called UK Unity separated from Scotland in Union. The new organisation supported Brexit and was critical of Scotland in Union's "agnostic" stance on the issue.<ref>{{cite news |url=http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15707230.Unionist_campaign_splits_over_Brexit_and_second_referendum/ |title=Unionist campaign splits over Brexit and second referendum |first=Tom |last=Gordon |work=The Herald |date=7 December 2017 |access-date=11 January 2018}}</ref>
Many leaders of foreign nations expressed support for Unionism during the 2014 independence referendum. [[Barack Obama]] expressed his support for a "strong, robust and united" UK,<ref>{{Cite news|date=2014-06-05|title=Scottish independence: Barack Obama backs 'strong and united' UK|language=en-GB|work=BBC News|url=https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-27713327|access-date=2021-05-23}}</ref> and the Swedish foreign minister and former prime minister [[Carl Bildt]] opposed what he called the "[[Balkanisation]] of the British Isles".<ref>{{Cite news|last=Milne|first=Richard|date=2014-06-03|title=Bildt warns of British 'Balkanisation'|url=https://www.ft.com/content/1a45b9bc-e258-11e3-89fd-00144feabdc0 |archive-url=https://ghostarchive.org/archive/20221210/https://www.ft.com/content/1a45b9bc-e258-11e3-89fd-00144feabdc0 |archive-date=10 December 2022 |url-access=subscription |url-status=live|access-date=2021-05-23|newspaper=Financial Times|language=en-GB}}</ref>
The [[Orange Order]], a Protestant brotherhood with thousands of members [[Grand Orange Lodge of Scotland|in Scotland]], campaigned against Scottish independence,<ref>{{Cite news|url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-28020183|title=Scottish independence: Orange Lodge registers to campaign for a 'No' vote|newspaper=BBC News|access-date=8 September 2014|date=25 June 2014}}</ref> and formed a campaign group called British Together.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.britishtogether.co.uk/index.php|title=British Together campaign|access-date=8 September 2014|url-status=usurped|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140831191633/http://www.britishtogether.co.uk/index.php|archive-date=31 August 2014}}</ref> In September 2014, it held a march of at least 15,000 Orangemen, [[Ulster loyalism|loyalist]] bands and supporters from Scotland and across the UK;<ref>[https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/13/orange-order-march-edinburgh-scottish-independence-vote "Orange Order anti-independence march a 'show of pro-union strength'"]. The Guardian. 13 September 2014.</ref> described as the biggest pro-Union demonstration of the campaign.<ref>[https://www.ft.com/content/cb47511e-3b70-11e4-885d-00144feabdc0 "Orange Order march through Edinburgh to show loyalty to UK"]. Financial Times. 13 September 2014.</ref>
==Public opinion== {{main|Opinion polling on Scottish independence}}
===Polling ahead of the 2014 referendum=== {{main|Opinion polling for the 2014 Scottish independence referendum}}
Many opinion polls were conducted about Scottish independence during the [[2014 Scottish independence referendum|2014 referendum]] campaign.{{efn|Attributed to multiple sources:<ref>{{cite news| url=https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1535193/Britain-wants-UK-break-up-poll-shows.html |archive-url=https://ghostarchive.org/archive/20220112/https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1535193/Britain-wants-UK-break-up-poll-shows.html |archive-date=12 January 2022 |url-access=subscription |url-status=live | location=London | work=The Daily Telegraph | first1=Patrick | last1=Hennessy | first2=Melissa | last2=Kite | title=Britain wants UK break up, poll shows | date=26 November 2006}}{{cbignore}}</ref><ref>{{cite news| url=https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/9015374/Britain-divided-over-Scottish-independence.html |archive-url=https://ghostarchive.org/archive/20220112/https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/9015374/Britain-divided-over-Scottish-independence.html |archive-date=12 January 2022 |url-access=subscription |url-status=live | location=London | work=The Daily Telegraph | title=Britain divided over Scottish Independence |date=15 January 2012 | first=Patrick | last=Hennessy}}{{cbignore}}</ref><ref>{{cite news |url=http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/scotland/article5908726.ece|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110913202706/http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/scotland/article5908726.ece|url-status=dead|archive-date=13 September 2011| title=Voters ditch SNP over referendum | work=The Times | date=15 March 2009 | access-date=16 March 2009 | location=London | first=Jason | last=Allardyce}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/scottish-independence|title=Scottish Independence|access-date=8 September 2014|archive-date=21 December 2010|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20101221190054/http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/scottish-independence|url-status=dead}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.tns-bmrb.co.uk/assets-uploaded/documents/tns-voting-intentions-poll-december-2010_1294676878.pdf|title=Independence Poll|access-date=8 September 2014|archive-date=25 April 2012|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120425141434/http://www.tns-bmrb.co.uk/assets-uploaded/documents/tns-voting-intentions-poll-december-2010_1294676878.pdf|url-status=dead}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/politics/support-for-independence-growing-1.1105921?localLinksEnable=false|title=Support for independence growing|work=Herald Scotland|access-date=8 September 2014|archive-date=22 May 2022|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220522172712/https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/12565457.Support_for_independence_growing/|url-status=dead}}</ref><ref name="Dinwoodie">{{cite news|url=http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/politics/yes-voters-take-lead-in-new-independence-poll-1.1121712|title=Yes voters take lead in new independence poll|last=Dinwoodie|first=Robbie|date=5 September 2011|work=The Herald|access-date=5 September 2011|location=Glasgow|archive-date=22 May 2022|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220522172708/https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/12556282.Yes_voters_take_lead_in_new_independence_poll/|url-status=dead}}</ref>}} Professor [[John Curtice]] stated in January 2012 that polling had shown support for independence at between 32% and 38% of the Scottish population.<ref name = "poll research">{{cite news|url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-16473265|title=Q&A: Scottish independence row|work=BBC News|publisher=BBC|date=17 January 2012|access-date=19 January 2012}}</ref> This had fallen somewhat since the SNP were first elected to become the Scottish Government in 2007.<ref name = "poll research"/> The research also showed, however, that the proportion of the population strongly opposed to independence had also declined.<ref name = "poll research"/> Curtice stated in April 2014 that support for independence had increased since December 2013, although there was disagreement between the polling companies as to the true state of public opinion.<ref>{{cite news |url=https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/scottish-independence-depending-on-the-pollster-it-looks-like-a-photo-finish-9284634.html |title=Scottish independence: Depending on the pollster, it looks like a photo finish |work=The Independent |first=John |last=Curtice |date=24 April 2014 |access-date=25 April 2014}}</ref> Polls in the run-up to the referendum vote showed a closing of the gap, with one [[YouGov]] poll giving the Yes campaign a 51–49 lead. In the referendum Scotland voted against independence by 55.3% to 44.7%, with an overall turnout of 84.5%.<ref name="No" /><ref name="Now"/>
===Polling since the 2014 referendum===
[[File:Flag_of_Scotland_with_Lion_Rampant.png|thumb|Banner adopted by the Scottish Labour Hub to represent a new direction for the [[Scottish Labour|Labour Party]] in Scotland.]]
Since six weeks after the 2014 referendum, opinion polls have asked how people would vote in a proposed second referendum.<ref>{{cite news |url=http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/scottish-politics/new-poll-scotland-would-back-indy-if-fresh-vote-was-held-now.1414830607 |title=New poll: Scotland would back indy if fresh vote was held now |work=The Herald |date=1 November 2014|access-date=13 March 2015}}</ref> Twenty-five polls were conducted in the year after the referendum, with seventeen of them having "No" as the predominant answer, seven having "Yes", and one having an equal proportion of respondents for each opinion.<ref>{{Cite news |url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-34277133 |title=What are the latest polls saying about Scottish independence? |newspaper=BBC News |publisher=BBC |first=John |last=Curtice |date=18 September 2015 |access-date=19 September 2015}}</ref><!--John Curtice's site www.whatscotlandthinks.org lists six Panelbase polls. The two "missing" polls give 42Y, 51N ("Jan 2015") and 42Y, 51N ("Apr 2015"). There are no tables for these polls on www.panelbase.com/media/Polls.aspx-->
In the year from September 2016 to September 2017, 25 of 26 polls conducted showed "No" as the most popular answer and only one showed "Yes" as the most popular answer.<ref>{{cite web |url=http://whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/how-would-you-vote-in-the-in-a-scottish-independence-referendum-if-held-now-ask#table|title=How would you vote in a Scottish independence referendum if held now? (asked after the EU referendum) |work=WhatScotlandThinks |publisher=Scotcen |first=John |last=Curtice |access-date=9 October 2017}}</ref> "No" continued to show a lead in opinion polls until July 2019, when one poll by [[Michael Ashcroft]] showed a narrow majority for "Yes".<ref name = ashcroft/> Professor John Curtice said after this poll was released that there had recently been a swing towards "Yes", and that this was concentrated among people who had voted to "Remain" in the 2016 Brexit referendum.<ref name = ashcroft>{{cite web |url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-49243355 |title=Nicola Sturgeon points to 'growing urgency' for Scottish independence |work=BBC News |date=5 August 2019 |access-date=6 August 2019}}</ref>
This pro-independence trend continued into 2020, as three polls in the early part of the year put "Yes" support at between 50% and 52%.<ref>{{cite news |url=https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/feb/04/scottish-independence-survey-shows-brexit-has-put-union-at-risk |title=Scottish independence surveys 'show Brexit has put union at risk' |newspaper=The Guardian |first=Severin |last=Carrell |date=4 February 2020 |access-date=5 February 2020}}</ref> In October 2020, an [[Ipsos MORI]]/[[STV News]] poll saw support for independence at its highest ever level, with 58% saying they would vote "Yes".<ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.thenational.scot/news/18793584.record-public-support-scottish-independence-new-poll-shows/|title=Record public support for Scottish independence, new poll shows|last=Paterson|first=Kirsteen|date=14 October 2020|website=The National|access-date=14 October 2020}}</ref> As of December 2020, fifteen consecutive opinion polls had shown a lead for "Yes".<ref>{{cite news |url=https://www.npr.org/2020/12/15/946242592/support-for-scottish-independence-is-growing-partly-due-to-u-k-s-covid-19-respon?t=1609197063332 |title=Support For Scottish Independence Is Growing, Partly Due To U.K.'s COVID-19 Response |first=Frank |last=Langfitt |date=15 December 2020 |access-date=30 December 2020 |newspaper=NPR}}</ref> The run of polls showing a "Yes" lead continued into January 2021, although the average support for Yes was down by two percentage points compared to polls by the same companies in late 2020.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-55803103 |title=How Brexit shapes people's views on Scottish independence |first=John |last=Curtice |website=BBC News |date=26 January 2021 |access-date=26 January 2021}}</ref> Polls conducted in early March 2021, following testimony by Alex Salmond and Nicola Sturgeon at a Holyrood parliamentary inquiry, showed narrow leads for "No".<ref>{{Cite web|title=Scottish independence: More would vote for remaining in UK if referendum were held tomorrow, poll suggests|url=https://news.sky.com/story/scottish-independence-more-would-vote-for-remaining-in-uk-if-referendum-were-held-tomorrow-poll-suggests-12238501|access-date=7 March 2021|website=Sky News|language=en}}</ref>
Support for independence in opinion polling depends upon the format of the question being asked. Polling company Survation have asked Scottish voters the question "Should Scotland remain in the United Kingdom or leave the United Kingdom?". Since 2018, none of these polls have shown a lead for Remain of less than 10%.<ref>For a full list of polls to August 2022, see [[Opinion polling on Scottish independence#Polls using Remain / Leave Question]]</ref> The rest of the UK generally supports Scotland remaining a part of the UK. YouGov polling between late 2019 and early 2022 shows that support for Scottish independence is at around 30%, while support for Scotland remaining in the UK is at around 45%.<ref>{{Cite web |title=GB support for Scottish independence |url=https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/support-for-scottish-independence |access-date=2022-08-05 |website=yougov.co.uk |language=en-gb}}</ref>
Following the Supreme Court Judgement of 23 November 2022, determining that the Scottish Government did not have the power to conduct a consultative independence referendum, the first five polls showed majority support for independence in the range of 51% - 56%. In a separate UK-wide poll, for the first time majority support (55%) was expressed across the UK for the right of the Scottish Government to hold an independence referendum.<ref>{{Cite web |title=UK Voters Back Scottish Independence Referendum |url=https://www.bylinesupplement.com/p/exclusive-poll-public-sees-conservatives |publisher=Omnisis for the Byline Times|access-date=2022-12-02}}</ref>
==See also== ;Other major independence or related movements * [[Yes Scotland]] * [[All Under One Banner]] * [[Welsh independence]] * [[YesCymru]] * [[Proposed Welsh independence referendum]] * [[United Ireland]] * [[Ireland's Future]] * [[English independence]] * [[List of active separatist movements in Europe]] * [[Catalan independence movement]]
;Related topics * [[Scottish devolution]] * [[Scottish nationalism]] * [[Scottish republicanism]] * [[Separatism in the United Kingdom]]
;Organisations * [[Scottish Liberals for Independence]] * [[Scottish Socialist Youth]]
==Notes== {{notelist}}
== References == === Citations === {{Reflist|30em}}
=== Sources === {{refbegin}} * {{cite book |author-link=Andrew Marr |last=Marr |first=Andrew |title=The Battle for Scotland |url=https://archive.org/details/battleforscotlan0000marr |url-access=registration |year=2013 |publisher=Penguin Books |isbn=978-0-241-96793-5 }} {{refend}}
== Further reading == * {{cite book |last=Hassan | first=Gerry | title=Radical Scotland: Arguments for Self-Determination | publisher=Luath Press|year=2011}} * {{cite book |last=Keating |first=Michael |title=The Independence of Scotland: Self-Government and the Shifting Politics of Union |year=2009 |publisher=Oxford University Press |location=Oxford}} * {{cite book |last=Keating |first=Michael |title=Secessionism and Separatism in Europe and Asia |publisher=Routledge |year=2013 |edition=1st |pages=127–144 |chapter=Nationalism, unionism and secession in Scotland}} * {{cite book |last=Murkens | first=Jo Eric | title=Scottish Independence: A Practical Guide | publisher=Edinburgh University Press | year=2002 | isbn=978-0-7486-1699-2}} * {{cite book |last=Pittock | first=Murray | title=The Road to Independence?: Scotland Since the Sixties | publisher=Reaktion Books|year=2008}}
==External links== {{Sister project links|d=y|n=Category:Scottish Independence|wikt=no|v=no|voy=no|m=no|mw=no|commons=Category:Scottish nationalism|s=no|q=no|b=no}}
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