{{Short description|American cryptocurrency-based prediction market}} {{Use American English|date=August 2024}} {{Use mdy dates|date=August 2024}} {{Infobox company | name = Polymarket | logo = Company_Logo_Polymarket.png | logo_upright = 1.1 | industry = [[Prediction market]] | founder = [[Shayne Coplan]] | founded = {{start date and age|2020}} | hq_location = 1280 [[Lexington Avenue]]<br/>[[New York City|New York]], [[New York (state)|NY]] 10028<br /> U.S.<ref name=PolymarketHQAddress>{{cite web|url=https://www.cbinsights.com/company/polymarket|title=Polymarket|publisher=CB Insights|access-date=October 21, 2024}}</ref> | key_people = Shayne Coplan ([[CEO]]) | website = {{Official URL}} }}
'''Polymarket''' is an American [[cryptocurrency]]-based [[prediction market]] which offers a platform where individuals can place [[bets]] on future outcomes, including [[Sports betting|sports matches]], [[economic indicator]]s, [[Weather|weather patterns]], awards, political and legislative outcomes, and [[War|military conflicts]]. Participants can deposit [[USD Coin|USDC]] [[cryptocurrency]] through the [[Polygon (blockchain)|Polygon blockchain network]] and trade shares that represent the likelihood of specific future outcomes. The company is headquartered in [[Manhattan]], New York City, where the platform was launched in 2020.
The [[Controversy|controversial]] nature of the betting markets offered by the company (which allow gambling on military strikes and ongoing wars), as well as the ability of individuals with insider information to bet on outcomes, have been described by the ''[[The Wall Street Journal|Wall Street Journal]]'' as a "legal and ethical grey area."<ref name="Osipovich-Jan2026">{{Cite news |last=Osipovich |first=Jack Pitcher and Alexander |date=2026-01-08 |title=Traders Bet on the U.S.'s Next Airstrike Target |url=https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/traders-bet-on-the-u-s-s-next-airstrike-target-6914b6e4 |website=The Wall Street Journal |language=en-US |url-access=subscription}}</ref> Numerous instances of suspicious [[insider trading]] have been observed on Polymarket,<ref name="ftwar"/><ref>{{Cite news |date=2026 |title=Prediction markets are rife with insider betting |url=https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2026/02/19/prediction-markets-are-rife-with-insider-betting |work=The Economist |issn=0013-0613}}</ref><ref name="Aratani-2026">{{Cite news |last=Aratani |first=Lauren |date=2026-04-18 |title=Traders placed over $1bn in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war. What is going on? |url=https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/apr/18/iran-war-bets-ethics-concerns |work=The Guardian |language=en-GB |issn=0261-3077}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |date=2026 |title=DOJ arrests soldier who made $400,000 betting on Maduro's removal: Sources |url=https://abcnews.com/US/doj-arrests-soldier-made-400000-betting-maduros-removal/story?id=132325426 |website=ABC News |language=en}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |last=Blunt |first=Katherine |date=2026-05-30 |title=The Google Engineer Accused of Risking It All With an Insider Polymarket Bet |url=https://www.wsj.com/tech/google-engineer-polymarket-bet-4d27b6b7 |website=The Wall Street Journal |language=en-US}}</ref> as well as attempts by gamblers to manipulate outcomes<ref name="Meduza-2025" /><ref>{{Cite news |last1= Abboud |first1=Leila |last2= White |first2=Sarah |last3= Stacey |first3= Stephanie |last4= Georgiadis |first4 = Philip |last5 = Dubois |first5= Laura |date=2026 |title=French weather service alerts police to tampering after suspicious Polymarket bets |url=https://www.ft.com/content/89be7df3-b7b8-4b4a-8b88-e24e877b439d |work=Financial Times|url-access=subscription}}</ref> and pressure journalists to change reporting.<ref>{{Cite news |date=2026-03-17 |title=A journalist reported a missile strike. Then came the death threats. |url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2026/03/17/israel-journalist-polymarket-iran-strike/ |work=The Washington Post |language=en-US |issn=0190-8286}}</ref> 0.1% of accounts net 67% of the profits on Polymarket, while more than 70% of users are losing money.<ref>{{Cite web |date=2026-05-04 |title=Why Almost Everyone Loses—Except a Few Sharks—on Prediction Markets |url=https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/polymarket-kalshi-betting-profits-prediction-markets-eb23ac11 |website=The Wall Street Journal |language=en-US}}</ref> An estimated 3% of traders account for the majority of [[price discovery]] on the platform.<ref>{{Cite web |title=The Green Beret was just the start: New data suggests military insider trading crisis on Polymarket |url=https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/04/30/polymarket-s-military-markets-show-signs-of-insider-edge-report-suggests |access-date=2026-05-06 |website=www.coindesk.com |language=en}}</ref><ref>{{Citation |last=Gomez Cram |first=Roberto |title=Prediction Market Accuracy: Crowd Wisdom or Informed Minority? |date=2026 |url=https://www.ssrn.com/abstract=6617059 |access-date=2026-05-06 |doi=10.2139/ssrn.6617059 |last2=Guo |first2=Yunhan |last3=Jensen |first3=Theis Ingerslev |last4=Kung |first4=Howard}}</ref>
Polymarket has been banned by governments in multiple jurisdictions, such as France and Brazil.<ref name="Osipovich-Feb2026" /> The platform was initially blocked in the United States amid regulatory scrutiny. The [[Age of majority|minimum age]] for joining Polymarket is 18 years old, despite state-level policy in the United States that restricts gambling at the state level to the age of 21. While it is not labelled a sports betting platform, 63% of trades on the platform are for [[Sports betting|sports bets]].<ref>{{Cite web |date=2026-04-28 |title=How Polymarket Users Move From Crypto to Sports And Why It Matters |url=https://www.financemagnates.com/cryptocurrency/how-polymarket-users-move-from-crypto-to-sports-and-why-it-matters/ |access-date=2026-05-06 |website=Financial and Business News {{!}} Finance Magnates |language=en}}</ref> The [[Second presidency of Donald Trump|second Donald Trump administration]] eased the regulatory environment for Polymarket.<ref name="Osipovich-Feb2026" /><ref name="Miller-2025" /> At the same time, Polymarket added [[Donald Trump Jr.]] as an advisor, after his firm [[1789 Capital]] invested in Polymarket.<ref name="Osipovich-Feb2026" /><ref name="Miller-2025" />
The company advertises that its markets "reflect real-time sentiment";<ref name="Polymarket Documentation" /> however, scholars have challenged that the platform efficiently and accurately aggregates information about outcomes.<ref name="Sides-2025" /><ref>{{Cite web |last=Johnston |first=Daisy |date=2026-03-23 |title=The Battlefield is the Next Betting Market |url=https://warontherocks.com/2026/03/the-battlefield-is-the-next-betting-market/ |website=War on the Rocks |language=en-US}}</ref> A review by the ''[[The New York Times|New York Times]]'' of Polymarket's social media posts found that the platform has published hundreds of false and misleading posts.<ref name="Thompson-2026">{{Cite news |last=Thompson |first=Stuart A. |last2=Yaffe-Bellany |first2=David |last3=Isaac |first3=Mike |date=2026-03-20 |title=Polymarket Says It Deals in Truth, but Its Social Feeds Are Filled With Falsehoods |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/20/technology/polymarket-social-feeds-falsehoods.html |work=The New York Times |language=en-US |issn=0362-4331}}</ref>
== History == Founded in 2020 by [[Shayne Coplan]],<ref name="Forbes24">{{cite news |last1=Folk |first1=Zachary |date=14 May 2024 |title=Peter Thiel Invests In Polymarket Political Betting Platform—But The Future Of Gambling On Elections Remains Unclear |url=https://www.forbes.com/sites/zacharyfolk/2024/05/14/peter-thiel-invests-in-polymarket-political-betting-platform-but-the-future-of-gambling-on-elections-remains-unclear/ |access-date=19 June 2024 |work=Forbes |archive-date=September 6, 2024 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240906023225/https://www.forbes.com/sites/zacharyfolk/2024/05/14/peter-thiel-invests-in-polymarket-political-betting-platform-but-the-future-of-gambling-on-elections-remains-unclear/ |url-status=live }}</ref> Polymarket is a prediction market that allows users to gain/lose on the outcome of world events.<ref name="NBC232">{{Cite web |date=2023-07-10 |title=A resurgent online betting market is boosted by crypto and current events |url=https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/internet/polymarket-online-bet-submersible-russia-war-rcna93122 |access-date=2023-12-13 |website=NBC News |language=en |archive-date=September 6, 2024 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240906022827/https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/internet/polymarket-online-bet-submersible-russia-war-rcna93122 |url-status=live }}</ref> In January 2022, Polymarket was fined US$1.4 million by the [[Commodity Futures Trading Commission]] (CFTC), and received a [[cease and desist|cease-and-desist]] order for regulatory violations, including failure to register as a [[Swap Execution Facility]].<ref>{{Cite web |date=2022-01-04 |title=CFTC Fines Polymarket and Issues a Cease and Desist |url=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cftc-fines-polymarket-issues-cease-025617843.html |access-date=2023-12-13 |work=FXEmpire |via=Yahoo Finance |language=en-US |archive-date=December 13, 2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20231213123352/https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cftc-fines-polymarket-issues-cease-025617843.html |url-status=live }}</ref><ref>{{Cite news |date=2022-01-03 |title=Event-Betting Platform Polymarket to Pay $1.4 Million U.S. Fine |language=en |work=Bloomberg.com |url=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-03/event-betting-platform-polymarket-to-pay-1-4-million-cftc-fine |access-date=2023-12-13 |archive-date=January 15, 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220115135428/https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-03/event-betting-platform-polymarket-to-pay-1-4-million-cftc-fine |url-status=live }}</ref> According to the CFTC, Polymarket offered "substantial cooperation" throughout the investigation, which resulted in the company receiving a lower fine.<ref name="Forbes24"></ref>
In May 2022, Polymarket appointed [[J. Christopher Giancarlo]], a former commissioner of the CFTC, as chairman of its advisory board.<ref>{{Cite news |date=2022-05-19 |title=Crypto Betting Service Polymarket Taps Ex-CFTC Head as Chair After Agency Probe |url=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-19/polymarket-names-cryptodad-board-chair-months-after-cftc-probe |access-date=2024-10-20 |work=Bloomberg |language=en}}</ref> In May 2024, the company announced that it had raised $70 million across two [[Securities offering|funding rounds]].<ref name=Bloomberg24>{{cite news |last1=Natarajan |first1=Sridhar |last2=Pan |first2=David |title=Peter Thiel's VC Firm Backs Election Betting With Polymarket Investment |url=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-14/peter-thiel-s-founders-fund-backs-election-betting-with-polymarket-funding?embedded-checkout=true |access-date=19 June 2024 |work=Bloomberg |date=14 May 2024 |quote=Polymarket has raised $70 million across two rounds, with the most recent raise led by Founders Fund... |archive-date=September 6, 2024 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240906022330/https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-14/peter-thiel-s-founders-fund-backs-election-betting-with-polymarket-funding?embedded-checkout=true |url-status=live }}</ref> These rounds included investments from [[Vitalik Buterin]], the cofounder of [[Ethereum]], and [[Founders Fund]], a [[venture capital]] firm founded by [[Peter Thiel]].<ref name=Forbes24></ref>
In June 2023, ''[[Mother Jones (magazine)|Mother Jones]]'' reported that interest around the company had increased after a tweet about the outcome of the [[Titan (submersible)|''Titan'' submersible]] went viral;<ref name="MotherJones23">{{cite news |last1=Breland |first1=Ali |date=23 June 2023 |title=Meet the Internet Gamblers Who Won Big Betting on the Submarine's Fate |url=https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2023/06/titanic-submarine-bets/ |access-date=29 February 2024 |work=Mother Jones |archive-date=April 24, 2024 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240424163851/https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2023/06/titanic-submarine-bets/ |url-status=live }}</ref> the premise of the bet was whether the submersible would be found by a certain date,<ref name="MotherJones23" /> rather than a wager on the fate of the passengers.<ref name="NBC23">{{Cite web |date=2023-07-10 |title=A resurgent online betting market is boosted by crypto and current events |url=https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/internet/polymarket-online-bet-submersible-russia-war-rcna93122 |access-date=2023-12-13 |website=NBC News |language=en |archive-date=December 13, 2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20231213123350/https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/internet/polymarket-online-bet-submersible-russia-war-rcna93122 |url-status=live }}</ref> Polymarket had over 60 [[Prediction market|markets]] available at the time of the submersible wager, including the outcome of the Guatemalan presidential election, the likelihood of [[Twitter]] suing [[Meta Platforms|Meta]], and the likelihood that [[Russia and weapons of mass destruction|Russia would use nuclear force]].<ref name="NBC23" />
Polymarket blocked access to United States customers from 2022 to December 2, 2025, following a settlement with the [[Commodity Futures Trading Commission]], which accused the company of running an unregistered [[Derivative (finance)|derivatives-trading]] platform.<ref>{{Cite web |title=CFTC Orders Event-Based Binary Options Markets Operator to Pay $1.4 Million Penalty |url=https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8478-22 |archive-date= |date=January 3, 2022 |access-date=November 16, 2024}}</ref> The [[Second presidency of Donald Trump|second Donald Trump administration]] eased the regulatory environment for Polymarket.<ref name="Miller-2025" /> At the same time, Polymarket added [[Donald Trump Jr.]] as an advisor, whose firm [[1789 Capital]] also invested in the company.<ref>{{Cite news |last=Saini |first=Manya |date=26 August 2025 |title=Polymarket secures investment from Trump Jr-backed 1789 Capital |url=https://www.reuters.com/business/polymarket-secures-investment-trump-jr-backed-1789-capital-2025-08-26/ |access-date=5 April 2026 |work=Reuters}}</ref>
In October 2025, Polymarket secured up to a $2 billion investment from [[Intercontinental Exchange]] (ICE), which valued the company at $8 billion.<ref>{{Cite news |last1= Osipovich |first1=Alexander |last2= Thomas |first2=Lauren |date=2025-10-07 |title=NYSE Owner to Invest Up to $2 Billion in Polymarket |url=https://www.wsj.com/business/deals/nyse-owner-near-deal-for-2-billion-stake-in-polymarket-1e02c88e |access-date=2025-10-07 |work=The Wall Street Journal |language=en-US |url-access=subscription}}</ref> By February 2026, the company was valued at $9 billion.<ref name="Osipovich-Feb2026">{{Cite news | last1= Osipovich |first1=Alexander |last2=Ostroff |first2=Caitlin |date=2026-02-02 |title=The Wild Markets Behind Polymarket's 'Truth Machine' |url=https://www.wsj.com/finance/regulation/polymarket-prediction-markets-kalshi-dd4702d6 |work=The Wall Street Journal |language=en-US |url-access=subscription}}</ref>
The company advertises that its markets "reflect real-time sentiment";<ref name="Polymarket Documentation">{{Cite web |title=Polymarket vs. Polling |url=https://docs.polymarket.com/polymarket-learn/FAQ/polling |access-date=2026-02-08 |website=Polymarket Documentation |language=en}}</ref> however, scholars have challenged how efficiently and accurately it aggregates information about outcomes.<ref name="Sides-2025">{{Cite web |last=Sides |first=John |date=December 18, 2025 |title=The perils of election prediction markets |url=https://goodauthority.org/news/the-perils-of-election-prediction-markets/ |access-date=January 10, 2026 |website=Good Authority |language=en-US}}</ref> A review by the ''[[The New York Times|New York Times]]'' of Polymarket's social media posts found that the platform has published hundreds of false and misleading posts.<ref name="Thompson-2026" />
In March 2026, Polymarket acquired Brahma, a crypto and [[Decentralized finance|DeFi]] infrastructure startup, to simplify its [[blockchain]] infrastructure for users.<ref>{{Cite web |last=Garcia |first=Carlos |date=March 18, 2026 |title=Exclusive: Polymarket acquires the startup Brahma, in effort to scale its crypto and DeFi infrastructure |url=https://fortune.com/2026/03/18/exclusive-polymarket-acquires-the-startup-brahma/ |access-date=23 March 2026 |website=Fortune}}</ref>
=== 2024 United States elections === In 2024, the outcome of [[2024 U.S. elections|U.S. elections]] became the most active market on the platform,<ref name="Bloomberg24"></ref> with over $3.3 billion (as of November 5, 2024)<ref>{{Cite web |title=Presidential Election Winner 2024 |url=https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024/will-kamala-harris-win-the-2024-us-presidential-election |access-date=2024-09-25 |website=Polymarket |language=en}}</ref> wagered on the presidential race between the [[Republican party (U.S.)|Republican]] candidate [[Donald Trump]] and [[Democratic party (U.S.)|Democratic]] candidate [[Kamala Harris]].<ref name="Forbes24"></ref> [[Nate Silver]], founder of polling analysis firm ''[[FiveThirtyEight]]'', became an advisor to Polymarket in 2024.<ref>{{cite news |last1=Salmon |first1=Felix |title=Prediction markets notch an important win with Biden's drop out |url=https://www.axios.com/2024/07/22/prediction-markets-biden-drop-out |access-date=22 July 2024 |publisher=Axios |date=July 22, 2024 |archive-date=September 6, 2024 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240906022319/https://www.axios.com/2024/07/22/prediction-markets-biden-drop-out |url-status=live }}</ref>
A few days after the [[2024 United States presidential debates|2024 U.S. presidential debate]] held on June 27, 2024, Polymarket predicted a 70% chance that Democratic candidate [[Joe Biden]] would withdraw from the [[2024 U.S. presidential election]] race (an increase from 20%), weeks before he officially announced his withdrawal.<ref>{{cite news |last1=Tapscott |first1=Alex |title=Forget the pundits and polls—internet prediction markets anticipated Biden's withdrawal weeks ago |url=https://fortune.com/2024/07/25/forget-pundits-polls-internet-prediction-markets-anticipated-biden-withdrawal-weeks-ago-crypto-elections-finance-politics/ |work=Fortune |language=en}}</ref> By contrast, on August 5, Polymarket showed 68% odds Kamala Harris would pick Pennsylvania governor [[Josh Shapiro]] as her running mate, with Minnesota governor [[Tim Walz]] at 23% odds. Harris selected Walz the next day.<ref>{{cite news |last1=King |first1=John |last2=Zeleny |first2=Jeff |last3=Gangel |first3=Jamie |last4=Lee |first4=MJ |last5=Strauss |first5=Daniel |last6=Krieg |first6=Gregory |last7=Holmes |first7=Kristen |last8=Klein |first8=Betsy |title=Harris decides on Tim Walz as running mate |url=https://edition.cnn.com/2024/08/06/politics/tim-walz-harris-vice-president/index.html |publisher=CNN |date=August 6, 2024}}</ref>
On October 7, 2024, Polymarket showed a spike in the odds Donald Trump would win the 2024 election, to 53.3%, with a corresponding decline in Kamala Harris's odds, to 46.1%. Two Polymarket competitors continued to show Harris with better odds of winning, at about 51%; Polymarket also showed a slight edge for Harris throughout September. That day, the ''FiveThirtyEight'' simulation model found Harris had a 55% chance to win the election, while elections statistician [[Nate Silver]] said his model gave Harris 54.7% odds. ''[[Forbes]]'' reported on theories for the Polymarket divergence, including that one or more major wagers had been placed on Trump, possibly because [[Elon Musk]] had spoken at a Trump rally two days earlier, and had previously promoted Polymarket. On the day of the Trump spike, Musk reposted an [[Twitter|X]] post that asserted "Kamala is collapsing before our eyes." However, due to Polymarket lacking a cap on individual investor amounts, large wagers by one or a few bettors may not reflect a material change in the election landscape. Silver, a Polymarket advisor, said the shift in Trump's favor was a "larger [[Swing (politics)|swing]] than is justified."<ref>{{cite news |last1=Small |first1=Derek |title=Trump's Election Odds Spike On Polymarket As Musk Touts Betting Site |url=https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2024/10/07/trumps-election-odds-spike-on-polymarket-as-musk-touts-election-betting-site/ |work=[[Forbes]] |date=October 7, 2024}}</ref> Polymarket competitor [[PredictIt]] had since shown Trump with better odds of winning after previously favoring Kamala Harris.<ref>{{cite web |last1=Sorkin |first1=Andrew Ross |title=Prediction Markets Tell a Different Story From the Polls |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/15/business/dealbook/prediction-markets-trump-harris.html |work=The New York Times |date=October 15, 2024 |access-date=17 October 2024}}</ref>
The divergence continued into mid-October 2024, showing Trump with 60% odds on October 18. ''[[The Wall Street Journal]]'' reported the market moves might be a [[mirage]] created by four bettors with about $30 million in Trump wagers, though the bets were not necessarily nefarious. The four bettors behaved in similar fashion, leading at least one blockchain analyst to conclude there was "strong reason to believe they are the same entity." Polymarket initiated an investigation of potential market manipulation for an influence campaign in favor of the [[Donald Trump 2024 presidential campaign]].<ref>{{Cite news |last=Osipovich |first=Alexander |date=October 18, 2024 |title=A Mystery $30 Million Wave of Pro-Trump Bets Has Moved a Popular Prediction Market |url=https://www.wsj.com/finance/betting-election-pro-trump-ad74aa71 |url-access=subscription |access-date=October 18, 2024 |work=The Wall Street Journal |archive-url=https://archive.today/20241102222243/https://www.wsj.com/finance/betting-election-pro-trump-ad74aa71 |archive-date=2 November 2024}}</ref> The company confirmed on October 24 that the four accounts were controlled by one French trader with "extensive trading experience and a financial services background," finding no evidence of efforts at market manipulation.<ref>{{cite news |last1=Breuninger |first1=Kevin |title=French trader bet over $28 million on Trump election win using 4 Polymarket accounts |url=https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/24/polymarket-trump-french-election-bet.html |publisher=CNBC |date=October 24, 2024}}</ref> The trader ultimately won $85 million upon Trump's victory.<ref>{{cite web |title=Trump Whale Scores $85 Million Windfall on Election|url=https://www.wsj.com/finance/trump-whale-scored-85-million-windfall-on-election-7c2cd906 |work= The Wall Street Journal|first=Alexander|last=Osipovich|date=13 November 2024|access-date=16 November 2024}}</ref>
In October 2025, [[Intercontinental Exchange]] (ICE) invested $2 billion in Polymarket, bringing the company's valuation to $9 billion.<ref>{{Cite news |last=Bhandari |first=Ateev |date=7 October 2025 |title=NYSE owner takes $2 billion stake in Polymarket as prediction markets heat up |url=https://www.reuters.com/business/nyse-parent-nears-deal-2-billion-stake-polymarket-wsj-reports-2025-10-07/ |work=Reuters}}</ref>
=== Relationship with Trump family === The [[Second presidency of Donald Trump|second Donald Trump administration]] eased the regulatory environment for Polymarket.<ref name="Miller-2025">{{Cite news |last1= Miller |first1=Joe |last2= Rogers |first2= Alex |title=Trump's Truth Social to allow trading on election results |url=https://www.ft.com/content/485594b3-5a72-4ae1-aa93-8ee987be1569 |work=Financial Times|date=October 28, 2025|access-date=January 10, 2026 |url-access=subscription}}</ref> In July 2025, the [[United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission|Commodity Futures Trading Commission]] (CFTC) and [[United States Department of Justice|Department of Justice]] ended a probe into Polymarket.<ref name="Miller-2025" /> The CFTC under the Joe Biden administration had entered into a settlement with Polymarket whereby Polymarket agreed to wind down U.S. operations after being accused of running an illegal exchange.<ref name="Miller-2025" /> [[Donald Trump Jr.]], a member of the [[Trump family]], has taken on an advisory role at Polymarket.<ref name="Miller-2025" />
== War bets == Polymarket allows bets on armed conflicts, which has led to members of [[Military|armed forces]] placing bets on operations, impacts on [[War correspondent|war reporting]], and bets about [[Nuclear warfare|nuclear war]]. War bets may rely on [[Classified information|classified military information]].<ref name="ftwar">{{cite news | url=https://www.ft.com/content/989d335e-275b-4cdc-b51d-4b29fd8895b0 | title=Half of 'long shot' Polymarket bets on military action are successful | last1=Stacey | first1=Stephanie | last2=Cook | first2=Chris | last3=Shah | first3=Jill R | publisher=Financial Times | date=2026-04-30 | access-date=2026-04-30 |url-access=subscription}}</ref> According to the Anti-Corruption Data Collective, 52% of military action long-shot bets—defined as those worth $2,500 or more with odds at or below 35%—are successful, compared to 25% for politics bets and 14% of all bets.<ref name="ftwar"/>
=== Russo-Ukrainian War === During the [[Russo-Ukrainian war]], the [[Institute for the Study of War]] (ISW) indicated on a map that Russian forces had advanced into downtown [[Myrnohrad]] on November 14, 2025, despite no evidence to support such an advance. After a bet that the city would be captured by Russia by November 15 was closed, the fictitious advance was removed from the map. The next day, a Polymarket user accused ISW of [[fraud]] because its maps did not reflect the actual extent of Russian advances. Ukrainian [[DeepStateMap.Live|DeepState]] in turn accused Polymarket of improperly using its maps and data to fuel bets.<ref name="Meduza-2025">{{cite news |title=Ukrainian war-tracking project DeepState accuses crypto prediction platform Polymarket of using its battlefield data for real-time gambling |url=https://meduza.io/en/feature/2025/12/02/ukrainian-war-tracking-project-deepstate-accuses-crypto-prediction-platform-polymarket-of-using-its-battlefield-data-for-real-time-gambling |access-date=21 December 2025 |work=[[Meduza]] |date=1 December 2025 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20251202224351/https://meduza.io/en/feature/2025/12/02/ukrainian-war-tracking-project-deepstate-accuses-crypto-prediction-platform-polymarket-of-using-its-battlefield-data-for-real-time-gambling |archive-date=2 December 2025 |language=en |url-status=live}}</ref> === 2026 United States attack on Venezuela === A newly created Polymarket account netted over $400,000 in January 2026 from positions held on [[Nicolás Maduro]] being ousted from office and U.S. military action against [[Venezuela]] before January 31. These bets came under scrutiny on social media for potential [[insider trading]] due to them being placed before the [[2026 United States intervention in Venezuela]] was publicly announced.<ref>{{Cite web |date=2026-01-04 |title=Suspicious bets on Maduro's removal raise eyebrows as user nets over US$400,000 |url=https://www.scmp.com/economy/global-economy/article/3338677/suspicious-bets-maduros-removal-raise-eyebrows-user-nets-over-us400000 |access-date=2026-01-04 |website=South China Morning Post |language=en}}</ref><ref>{{Cite news |title=Was Someone Insider Trading Right Before Trump's Attack on Venezuela? |url=https://newrepublic.com/post/204885/insider-trading-trump-attack-venezuela-maduro-polymarket |access-date=2026-01-04 |work=The New Republic |issn=0028-6583}}</ref><ref name="Osipovich-Jan2026" /> A U.S. [[United States special operations forces|Special Forces]] soldier was later arrested and charged. He is alleged to have had access to classified information and been involved in the planning and execution of the raid.<ref name="b172">{{cite web | last1=Rabinowitz | first1=Hannah | last2=Scannell | first2=Kara | title=US special forces soldier arrested after allegedly winning $400,000 on Maduro raid | website=CNN | date=2026-04-23 | url=https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/23/politics/us-special-forces-soldier-arrested-maduro-raid-trade | access-date=2026-04-24}}</ref> Polymarket stated it had cooperated with the investigation.<ref>{{Cite web |date=2026-04-24 |title=U.S. soldier involved in Maduro raid charged with betting on the operation |url=https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/soldier-charged-over-maduro-raid-bet-rcna341710 |access-date=2026-04-24 |website=NBC News |language=en}}</ref> === Nuclear war bets === Polymarket came under scrutiny after users placed nearly $850,000 in bets on [[Nuclear explosion|nuclear detonations]] following the beginning of the [[2026 Iran war]]. The bet had been first listed in November 2025.<ref>{{Cite web |date=2026-03-04 |title=Polymarket quietly pulls nuclear detonation prediction market after it draws nearly $850K in bets |url=https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/polymarket-quietly-pulls-nuclear-detonation-145615266.html |access-date=2026-03-06 |website=Yahoo News |language=en-US}}</ref> Polymarket removed the bet shortly after the majority of bets were placed.<ref>{{Cite web |title=Polymarket Removes Betting Market on Nuclear Detonation |url=https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-03-04-2026/card/polymarket-removes-betting-market-on-nuclear-detonation-yL1mTyAiMKUvrBzznQPH |access-date=2026-03-06 |website=The Wall Street Journal |language=en-US}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |last=Landymore |first=Frank |title=Polymarket quietly takes down bet on nuclear detonation |url=https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/polymarket-quietly-takes-down-bet-on-nuclear-detonation/ar-AA1XxnI8?ocid=BingNewsSerp |website=Futurism}}</ref>
=== Twelve-Day War and 2026 Iran War ===
There have been multiple cases of suspiciously timed trades related to the [[2026 Iran war]] on Polymarket.<ref name="Aratani-2026" />
Users who had placed large bets related to an Iranian missile strike in March 2026 are alleged to have harassed and threatened Israeli journalist [[Emanuel Fabian]] of ''[[The Times of Israel]]'' in an attempt to pressure him to alter his reporting and influence the market's outcome. Fabian refused, reported the threats to police, and Polymarket subsequently condemned the behavior and banned those involved, prompting broader criticism of [[Prediction market|prediction markets]] over ethical risks and incentives tied to real-world events.<ref name="v129">{{cite web | last=Fabian | first=Emanuel | title=Gamblers trying to win a bet on Polymarket are vowing to kill me if I don't rewrite an Iran missile story | website=The Times of Israel | date=2026-03-16 | url=https://www.timesofisrael.com/gamblers-trying-to-win-a-bet-on-polymarket-are-vowing-to-kill-me-if-i-dont-rewrite-an-iran-missile-story/ | access-date=2026-04-01}}</ref><ref>{{cite news |title=A journalist reported a missile strike. Then came the death threats. |url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2026/03/17/israel-journalist-polymarket-iran-strike/ |work=The Washington Post |date=2026-03-17}}</ref> The incident drew condemnation from [[Reporters Without Borders]] (RSF), which reiterated that the safety of journalists is "non-negotiable" and that all actors must respect [[Freedom of the press|press freedom]] and the [[Freedom of information|right to information]].<ref>{{cite web |title=RSF statement on journalist safety and press freedom |url=https://x.com/RSF_inter/status/2033972015091048737 |website=X (formerly Twitter) |publisher=Reporters Without Borders |date=2026-03-17}}</ref> It also coincided with renewed political scrutiny in the United States, where lawmakers, including Representative [[Mike Levin]], cited similar concerns about betting on war-related events while promoting legislation to restrict or ban such markets, arguing that they could incentivize [[profiteering]] from violence and misuse of sensitive information.<ref>{{cite news |title=U.S. Democratic lawmakers introduce bill to crack down on prediction markets |url=https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/us-democratic-lawmakers-introduce-bill-crack-down-prediction-markets-2026-03-17/ |work=Reuters |date=2026-03-17}}</ref>
Multiple members of the [[Israeli Air Force]] have been interrogated or indicted regarding bets on the timing of Israeli and American strikes on Iran during the [[Twelve-Day War]].<ref name="i914">{{cite web | last=Breiner | first=Josh | title=IDF Air Crew Member Suspected of Betting on Iran War in Polymarket: 'The Entire Air Force Is Betting' | website=Haaretz | date=2026-03-29 | url=https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/israel-security/2026-03-29/ty-article/.premium/second-idf-air-crew-member-suspected-of-betting-on-iran-war-in-polymarket/0000019d-359c-d5ae-abfd-b7dd62b20000 | access-date=2026-03-30}}</ref> An air force officer gave information on the 2025 strikes to a colleague and the two allegedly earned $244,000.<ref name="e893">{{cite web | last=Breiner | first=Josh | title=Israel Air Force Officer Charged With Leaking Iran Strike Date for Polymarket Bets, Court Reveals | website=Haaretz | date=2026-03-28 | url=https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/israel-security/2026-03-28/ty-article/.premium/court-clears-air-force-officer-charged-with-leaking-iran-strike-for-online-bets/0000019d-2f2e-d868-a1bd-7fef78860000 | access-date=2026-03-30}}</ref> They continued betting on strikes in [[Yemen]] and the questions "Will Israel strike Iran by the end of January?" and "Will Israel strike Iran by the end of March 2026?" and were eventually indicted for "delivering secret information".<ref name="e893"/> A different [[Crewman|crewmember]] was interrogated for placing bets on the Twelve-Day War, allegedly earning $46,000.<ref name="i914"/> He stated during his interrogation that "the entire [[Squadron (aviation)|squadron]] is on Polymarket, the entire air force is betting."<ref name="i914"/>
==Legal and regulatory issues== {{See also|Prediction market#Legality and regulation}}
Polymarket has faced legal issues and has been blocked in several countries. As of September 2024, Polymarket operates its election prediction operations offshore, as domestic operations would be regulated in the U.S. by the [[United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission|CFTC]].<ref>{{cite news |last1=Schwartz |first1=Lee |date=September 9, 2024 |title=Polymarket likely to remain offshore for now despite ruling in favor of U.S. election betting |url=https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/polymarket-likely-remain-offshore-now-155400532.html |work=[[Fortune (magazine)|Fortune]] |agency=via Yahoo! Finance Canada}}</ref>
The betting markets offered by the company, as well as the ability of individuals with [[Insider trading|insider information]] to bet on outcomes, have been described as a "legal and ethical grey area."<ref name="Osipovich-Jan2026" /> The ability of individuals with insider information to bet on outcomes, has been described as a legal grey area by U.S. representative [[Ritchie Torres]].<ref>{{Cite news |last=Rowe |first=Niamh |date=2026-01-30 |title=On Polymarket, 'privileged' users made millions betting on war strikes and diplomatic strategy. What did they know beforehand? |url=https://www.theguardian.com/society/ng-interactive/2026/jan/30/polymarket-prediction-markets-betting |work=The Guardian |language=en-GB |issn=0261-3077}}</ref> Suspicious activities, suggestive of insider information being used for Polymarket betting, have been observed in the [[Russo-Ukrainian war]],<ref>{{Cite news |last=Gault |first=Matthew |date=2025-12-01 |title='Unauthorized' Edit to Ukraine's Frontline Maps Point to Polymarket's War Betting |url=https://www.404media.co/unauthorized-edit-to-ukraines-frontline-maps-point-to-polymarkets-war-betting/ |work=404 Media |language=en |url-access=subscription}}</ref> the [[2026 United States strikes in Venezuela]],<ref name="Osipovich-Jan2026" /> Israeli military operations,<ref>{{Cite news |last1= Lieber |first1=Dov | last2= Osipovich |first2= Alexander |last3=Ostroff |first3= Caitlin |date=2026-02-12 |title=Israeli Soldiers Accused of Using Polymarket to Bet on Strikes |url=https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/israeli-soldiers-accused-of-using-polymarket-to-bet-on-strikes-72d53012 |access-date=2026-02-28 |work=The Wall Street Journal |language=en-US |url-access=subscription}}</ref> the [[2026 Israeli–United States strikes on Iran]],<ref>{{Cite news |date=2026 |title=Polymarket Iran Bets Hit $529 Million as New Wallets Draw Notice |url=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-28/polymarket-iran-bets-hit-529-million-as-new-wallets-draw-notice |work=Bloomberg News}}</ref> and [[OpenAI]].<ref>{{Cite news |last=Knibbs |first=Kate |title=OpenAI Fires an Employee for Prediction Market Insider Trading |url=https://www.wired.com/story/openai-fires-employee-insider-trading-polymarket-kalshi/ |work=Wired |language=en-US |issn=1059-1028}}</ref>
On November 13, 2024, the [[Federal Bureau of Investigation|FBI]] raided Polymarket founder and CEO [[Shayne Coplan]]'s home and seized his phone. According to ''[[Bloomberg News]]'', the [[United States Department of Justice|Department of Justice]] was investigating Polymarket for allegedly allowing U.S.-based users to make bets on the website.<ref>{{cite news |last1=Miller |first1=Myles |last2=Beyoud |first2=Lydia |title=Polymarket Investigated by DOJ for Allegedly Letting US Users Bet on Platform |url=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-13/polymarket-investigated-by-doj-for-letting-us-users-bet-on-platform |access-date=15 November 2024 |work=Bloomberg.com |date=13 November 2024 |language=en|url-access=subscription}}</ref><ref>{{cite news |last1=Osipovich |first1=Alexander |title=FBI Seizes Polymarket Founder's Phone in Raid of Home |url=https://www.wsj.com/us-news/law/fbi-polymarket-ceo-investigation-75472d18?mod=breakingnews |access-date=13 November 2024 |work=The Wall Street Journal |date=13 November 2024}}</ref><ref>{{cite news |last1=Conlin |first1=Michelle |title=FBI raids Polymarket CEO's home, seizing phone, electronics |url=https://www.reuters.com/world/us/fbi-raids-polymarket-ceos-home-seizing-phone-electronics-ny-post-reports-2024-11-13/ |access-date=15 November 2024 |work=Reuters |date=13 November 2024}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-criminal-civil-authorities-probing-polymarket-source-says-2024-11-14/|title=US criminal, civil authorities probing Polymarket, source says|work=Reuters|first=Chris|last=Prentice|date=14 November 2024|access-date=16 November 2024}}</ref>
=== Regional lawsuits and bans === Polymarket has at some point been banned in a number of countries that regulate [[gambling]] and [[sports betting]], including [[France]], [[Italy]], [[Singapore]], [[Switzerland]], [[Poland]], [[Romania]],<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://hotnews.ro/polymarket-interzis-in-romania-platforma-permitea-pariuri-privind-castigatorii-in-alegeri-onjn-peste-600-de-milioane-in-tranzactii-la-prezidentiale-din-romania-2098489|title=Polymarket, interzis în România. Platforma permitea pariuri privind câștigătorii în alegeri. ONJN: Peste 600 de milioane de dolari în tranzacții la prezidențiale din România|trans-title=Polymarket, outlawed in Romania. The platform permitted betting on winners in elections. ONJN: Over 600 million dollars in transactions on Romanian presidential elections|date=2025-10-30|access-date=2026-03-08|website=[[Hotnews]]}}</ref> [[Australia]]<ref>https://cryptonews.com.au/news/australia-blocks-polymarket-after-regulator-targets-illegal-online-betting-130407/</ref> and the United States.
==== Asia and Europe ====
On November 26, 2024, the [[Swiss Gambling Supervisory Authority]] added Polymarket.com to its blocked domains list due to the controversial aspects of prediction markets in violation of the regulation on gambling and sports betting.<ref>{{cite web |title=Access blocking — gespa |url=https://www.gespa.ch/en/fighting-illegal-gambling/access-blocking |access-date=5 March 2025 |work=Gespa - [[Swiss Gambling Supervisory Authority]] |language=en}}</ref><ref>{{cite web |title=Regulation — gespa |url=https://www.gespa.ch/en/regulation-and-licensing/regulation |access-date=12 March 2025 |work=Gespa - [[Swiss Gambling Supervisory Authority]] |language=en}}</ref> Three days later, the French [[National Gaming Authority]] announced that after having investigated Polymarket because its gaming offerings were likely in violation of French laws.<ref>{{Cite web |date=2024-11-07 |title=French regulator probes Peter Thiel-backed betting platform |url=https://www.politico.eu/article/french-regulator-opens-probe-into-election-betting-platform-polymarket/ |access-date=2025-07-08 |website=[[Politico]] |language=en-GB}}</ref> The company agreed to perform a [[Geo-blocking|geo-block]] in France.<ref>{{Cite web |date=2024-11-29 |title=Suite à l'intervention de l'ANJ, le site POLYMARKET ne propose plus ses services sur le territoire français |url=https://anj.fr/suite-lintervention-de-lanj-le-site-polymarket-ne-propose-plus-ses-services-sur-le-territoire |access-date=2025-07-08 |website=anj.fr |language=fr}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |date=2 December 2024 |title=French Regulator Blocks Polymarket |url=https://gameongazette.com/french-regulator-blocks-polymarket/ |website=Gameongazette}}</ref>
Polymarket.com was added to the Internet gambling blacklists of [[Ministry of Finance (Poland)|Poland's Ministry of Finance]] and Singapore's [[Gambling Regulatory Authority]] on January 8<ref>{{Cite web |title=Rejestr Domen Służących do Oferowania Gier Hazardowych Niezgodnie z Ustawą |url=https://hazard.mf.gov.pl/ |access-date=2025-05-07 |website=hazard.mf.gov.pl |language=pl}}</ref> and January 12, 2025,<ref>{{Cite news |date=2025-01-15 |title=Singapore, Thailand Move to Block Crypto Betting Site Polymarket |url=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-15/singapore-thailand-move-to-block-crypto-betting-site-polymarket |access-date=16 January 2025 |work=Bloomberg.com |language=en}}</ref> respectively, due to the site being in violation of those countries' gambling laws. On February 3, 2025, the Belgian Gaming Commission, ''Commission des Jeux de Hasard'', banned the platform in [[Belgium]], warning users trying to connect that use of the platform in Belgium is illegal.<ref>{{Cite web |date=2025-02-03 |title=La Belgique interdit Polymarket, un site pour parier sur l'actualité en cryptomonnaie |url=https://www.rtbf.be/article/la-belgique-interdit-polymarket-un-site-pour-parier-sur-l-actualite-en-cryptomonnaie-11498501 |access-date=2025-07-08 |website=RTBF |language=fr}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |title=List of illegal gambling sites |url=https://commissiondesjeuxdehasard.be/en/gaming-commission/illegal-games-of-chance/list-of-illegal-gambling-sites |access-date=2025-07-08 |website=Belgian Gaming Commission}}</ref>
On February 2, 2026, Sofia Regional Court of [[Bulgaria]] issued a demand for [[Internet service provider|Internet providers]] to block Polymarket as it does not have a valid gambling license in the country. <ref>{{Cite web |date=2026-02-04 |url=https://nra.bg/wps/wcm/connect/nra.bg25863/8d7106d2-e648-4c0b-b5f5-74954c522d94/%D0%A0%D0%B0%D0%B7%D0%BF%D0%BE%D1%80%D0%B5%D0%B6%D0%B4%D0%B0%D0%BD%D0%B5+%D0%B8%D0%B7%D1%85.+%E2%84%96+%D0%A0%D0%94-30-510_04.02.2026.pdf?MOD=AJPERES |title=република българия софийски районен съд |access-date=2026-04-11 |website=nra.bg |language=bg}}</ref> On March 17, 2026, the Portuguese Gaming Policy and Regulation Service (SRIJ) issued a nationwide ban on Polymarket, ordering local Internet service providers to block access to the platform due to a lack of proper licensing for gambling and sports betting operations.<ref>{{Cite news |last=Correia |first=Ricardo |title=Portugal suspende acesso ao Polymarket por falta de licenciamento |url=https://www.publico.pt/2026/03/17/economia/noticia/portugal-suspende-acesso-polymarket-falta-licenciamento-2083941 |access-date=2026-03-20 |work=Público}}</ref>
On 19 May 2026 [[Tánaiste]] [[Simon Harris]] said at the [[Banking and Payments Federation Ireland]] conference that the government would examine "suspicious bets" made on Polymarket.<ref name=rte-govt-to-examine-suspicious-bets-on-dublin-central>{{Cite news |title=Govt to examine 'suspicious bets' on Dublin Central by-election |date=2026-05-19 |url=https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2026/0519/1574193-polymarket-tanaiste/ |access-date=2026-05-20 |agency=[[PA Media]]}}</ref> In particular, there was concern about bets placed on the [[2026 Dublin Central by-election]] as a million dollars was placed on it, with hundreds of thousands of Euro on [[Gerry Hutch]] to lose.<ref name=rte-govt-to-examine-suspicious-bets-on-dublin-central/> There is no suggestion that any candidate is guilty of wrongdoing.<ref name=rte-govt-to-examine-suspicious-bets-on-dublin-central/> Harris also expressed concerns about the issues of gambling and money laundering, saying that he is concerned with issues of both gambling and money laundering and that the [[Department of Justice, Home Affairs and Migration|Department of Justice]], the [[Garda Síochána]], the [[Gambling Regulatory Authority of Ireland]], the [[Central Bank of Ireland]], partners in the EU and relevant agencies.<ref name=rte-govt-to-examine-suspicious-bets-on-dublin-central/>
On 22 May 2026, [[Ministry of Communication and Digital Affairs]] blocked access to Polymarket in [[Indonesia]] due to predicting possible early ending a president [[Prabowo Subianto|Prabowo Subianto's]] tenure. The Supervisor Digital [[Alexander Sabar]] was labeled as online gambling on their prediction market.<ref name="bloomberg-2026-indonesia-block-by-komdigi">{{Cite news |title=Polymarket Banned in Indonesia After Bets on Prabowo's Ouster|date=2026-05-25 |url=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-25/polymarket-banned-in-indonesia-after-bets-on-prabowo-s-ouster|access-date=2026-05-25|agency=Bloomberg}}</ref>
==== South America ====
Polymarket, along with other [[Prediction market|prediction markets]], was banned in [[Brazil]] on April 26, 2026.<ref>{{cite news | url=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-24/brazil-moves-to-ban-prediction-markets-on-elections-sports | title=Brazil blocks Polymarket, Kalshi Over 'Illegal Betting' | last1=Reis | first1=Beatriz | last2=Beck | first2=Martha | last3=Carvalho | first3=David | publisher=Bloomberg | date=2026-04-26}}</ref>
==== United States ==== On July 15, 2025, [[CNBC]] reported that the [[United States Department of Justice|U.S. Department of Justice]] and the [[Commodity Futures Trading Commission]] (CFTC) formally ended their investigations into Polymarket without bringing new charges. This development marked the resolution of regulatory scrutiny following the company's earlier settlement with the CFTC in 2022 and enforcement actions in 2024.<ref>{{cite web |title=Polymarket escapes regulatory crackdown as DOJ, CFTC end investigations |url=https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/15/polymarket-investigations-doj-cftc-betting-market.html |access-date=2025-07-27 |work=CNBC |date=15 July 2025 |language=en}}</ref> Following the end of the investigations, Polymarket announced the acquisition of QCEX, a CFTC-licensed derivatives exchange and clearinghouse, for $112 million. The acquisition allowed Polymarket to legally operate within the United States under [[regulatory compliance]].<ref>{{cite web |title=Polymarket to return to U.S. after acquisition|url=https://www.axios.com/2025/07/21/prediction-market-polymarket-us |access-date=2026-01-16 |work=Axios|first=Nathan|last=Bomey |date=21 July 2025 |language=en}}</ref>
The company received an Amended Order of Designation from the CFTC in November 2025 and began actively expanding in the United States market.<ref name="PRNewswire2025">{{cite press release |title=Polymarket Receives CFTC Approval of Amended Order of Designation, Enabling Intermediated U.S. Market Access |date=November 2025 |publisher=PR Newswire |url=https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/polymarket-receives-cftc-approval-of-amended-order-of-designation-enabling-intermediated-us-market-access-302625833.html |access-date=January 31, 2026}}</ref> Some individual states soon thereafter opened court cases claiming that Polymarket should be regulated as a gambling or gaming operator within their state. In January 2026, the [[Nevada Gaming Control Board]] filed a civil complaint against Polymarket seeking to prevent the platform from offering event contracts to Nevada residents without a state-issued gaming license. This action followed a preliminary injunction issued in the [[Massachusetts Superior Court]] case ''Commonwealth v. KalshiEX LLC'', which found that similar prediction market contracts functioned as illegal sports wagering under state law.<ref name="GamblingInsider2026">{{cite news |last1=Harrison |first1=Joe |title=Nevada cites Massachusetts Kalshi ruling, seeks to shut down Polymarket |url=https://www.gamblinginsider.com/news/105265/nevada-kalshi-massachusetts-ruling-polymarket-injunction |work=Gambling Insider |date=January 2026 |access-date=January 31, 2026}}</ref> Nevada regulators used the Massachusetts ruling as supplemental authority to argue that state jurisdiction over gambling remains intact despite federal oversight by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).<ref name="FinanceMagnates2026">{{cite news |last1=Solomon |first1=Shoshanna |title=Kalshi, Polymarket and Crypto.com Prediction Markets Kicked Out of Another State Over Sports Betting |url=https://www.financemagnates.com/forex/kalshi-polymarket-and-cryptocom-prediction-markets-kicked-out-of-another-state-over-sports-betting/ |work=Finance Magnates |date=January 20, 2026 |access-date=January 31, 2026}}</ref> The conflicting rulings have led to ongoing litigation regarding whether the federal [[Commodity Exchange Act]] preempts state-level gambling enforcement against prediction markets.<ref name="MassGov2026">{{cite web |title=AG Campbell Secures Court Order That Will Block Kalshi from Offering Unlawful Sports Wagers in Massachusetts |url=https://www.mass.gov/news/ag-campbell-secures-court-order-that-will-block-kalshi-from-offering-unlawful-sports-wagers-in-massachusetts |publisher=Office of Attorney General Andrea Joy Campbell |date=January 14, 2026 |access-date=January 31, 2026}}</ref>
In May 2026, Minnesota enacted a law banning prediction markets as of August 1, 2025.<ref>{{Cite news |last=Allyn |first=Bobby |date=2026-05-19 |title=Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets |url=https://www.npr.org/2026/05/19/nx-s1-5821265/minnesota-ban-prediction-markets |access-date=2026-05-31 |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20260526031459/https://www.npr.org/2026/05/19/nx-s1-5821265/minnesota-ban-prediction-markets |archive-date=2026-05-26 |work=NPR |language=en}}</ref> The U.S. DOJ filed a lawsuit the following day seeking to stop the law from taking effect.<ref>{{Cite news |last=Pereira |first=Ivan |title=Federal government sues Minnesota over prediction market ban |url=https://abcnews.com/US/federal-government-sues-minnesota-prediction-market-ban/story?id=133151891 |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20260526131023/https://abcnews.com/US/federal-government-sues-minnesota-prediction-market-ban/story?id=133151891 |archive-date=2026-05-26 |access-date=2026-05-31 |work=ABC News |language=en-US}}</ref> President Trump wrote in a social media post that it “critically important” that the federal government retain control “exclusive authority” over prediction markets and called Minnesota Governor Walz, among others "SCUM" for trying to set rules.<ref>{{Cite news |date=2026-05-27 |last=Planas |first=Roque |title=‘Scum’: Trump attacks US states’ efforts to regulate prediction markets |url=https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/may/26/trump-prediction-markets-kalshi-polymarket |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20260528032812/https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/may/26/trump-prediction-markets-kalshi-polymarket |archive-date=2026-05-28 |access-date=2026-05-31 |work=the Guardian |language=en}}</ref>
== See also == * [[Prediction market#List of prediction markets|Prediction market § List of prediction markets]] * [[Online gambling]] * [[Policy Analysis Market]] – a defunct U.S. government-run futures prediction market * [[PredictIt]] – New Zealand-based online prediction market, exclusive to U.S. users * [[Kalshi]] – U.S.-based online prediction market, exclusive to U.S. users
== References == {{reflist}}
== External links == {{Commons-inline}} *{{Official website}}
{{Gambling|state=collapsed}}
[[Category:Prediction markets]] [[Category:Cryptocurrency companies]] [[Category:Cryptocurrency gambling websites]] [[Category:American companies established in 2020]] [[Category:Polygon (blockchain)]] [[Category:Gambling websites]] [[Category:Betting exchanges]]