{{Short description|American economist, academic, and government official}} {{Infobox officeholder | name = Kim J. Ruhl | office = Member of the Council of Economic Advisors | president = Donald Trump | occupation = Professor, Chair of Economics Department | education = Bowling Green State University University of Minnesota | predecessor = Kirabo Jackson | successor = Aaron Hedlund | term_start = February 4, 2025 | term_end = February 27, 2026 | image = Headshot KimRuhl.jpg }} '''Kim J. Ruhl''' is an American economist, academic, and government official, known for his work in international economics. He served as a Member of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) in the Executive Office of the President of the United States in 2025-2026.<ref name=":0">{{Cite web |last=UW–Madison |first=University of Wisconsin |date=2025-02-04 |title=UW–Madison economics professor Kim Ruhl appointed as member of President's Council of Economic Advisers |url=https://news.wisc.edu/uw-madison-economics-professor-kim-ruhl-appointed-as-member-of-presidents-council-of-economic-advisers/ |access-date=2025-11-19 |website=News |language=en-US}}</ref><ref name=":1">{{Cite web |title=White House Press Release - President Trump Appoints the Members of his Council of Economic Advisers {{!}} The American Presidency Project |url=https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/white-house-press-release-president-trump-appoints-the-members-his-council-economic |access-date=2025-11-19 |website=www.presidency.ucsb.edu}}</ref><ref name=":16">{{Cite web |last=House |first=The White |date=2026-04-13 |title=2026 Economic Report of the President Released |url=https://www.whitehouse.gov/releases/2026/04/2026-economic-report-of-the-president-released/ |access-date=2026-04-18 |website=The White House |page=356 |language=en-US}}</ref> He is the Curt and Sue Culver Chair of Economics at the University of Wisconsin–Madison, where he also co-directs the Center for Research on the Wisconsin Economy (CROWE).<ref name=":2">{{Cite web |title=Information & Resources |url=https://www.whitehouse.gov/cea/information-resources/ |access-date=2025-11-19 |website=The White House |language=en-US}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |date=2018-08-13 |title=Ruhl, Kim |url=https://econ.wisc.edu/staff/ruhl-kim/ |access-date=2025-11-19 |website=Department of Economics |language=en-US}}</ref><ref name=":3">{{Cite web |last=Press release |first=CROWE |date=2022-11-22 |title=CROWE names Kim Ruhl and Ananth Seshadri as new co-directors |url=https://crowe.wisc.edu/wp-content/uploads/sites/313/2022/11/CROWE-press-release-11.17.22.pdf |access-date=2025-11-19 |website=The Center for Research on the Wisconsin Economy (CROWE)}}</ref> Ruhl was a Special Sworn Researcher at the U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), and is a research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).<ref name="Three NBER Affiliates Join CEA">{{Cite web |date=2025-05-14 |title=Three NBER Affiliates Join CEA |url=https://www.nber.org/news/three-nber-affiliates-join-cea |access-date=2025-11-19 |website=NBER |language=en}}</ref><ref name="bea.gov">{{Cite web |title=Kim J. Ruhl {{!}} U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) |url=https://www.bea.gov/authors/kim-j-ruhl |access-date=2025-11-19 |website=www.bea.gov |language=en}}</ref>
== Early life and education == Ruhl was raised in Madison, Wisconsin, where he attended Madison East High School.<ref name=":0" /> He earned a Bachelor of Science degree in economics in 1999 from Bowling Green State University, Ohio, and a Ph.D. in economics in 2004 from the University of Minnesota, under the supervision of economist Timothy J. Kehoe.<ref name=":4">{{Cite web |last=Ruhl |first=Kim |date=2025 |title=Kim Joseph Ruhl CV |url=https://www.kjrs3.com/misc/ruhl_cv.pdf |access-date=2025-11-19 |website=Kim J Ruhl Website}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal |date=2005 |title=Doctoral Dissertations in Economics One-Hundred-Second Annual List |url=https://www.jstor.org/stable/4129418 |journal=Journal of Economic Literature |volume=43 |issue=4 |pages=1190–1218 |issn=0022-0515}}</ref><ref>{{Cite book |last=Ruhl |first=Kim Joseph |url=https://www.google.com.eg/books/edition/Essays_on_International_Economics/iiSnWtex2ykC?hl=en&gbpv=0&bsq=inauthor:%22Kim%20Joseph%20Ruhl%22 |title=Essays on International Economics |date=2004 |publisher=University of Minnesota |language=en}}</ref>
== Academic career == Prior to joining the Department of Economics at the University of Wisconsin-Madison as an Associate Professor in 2018, Ruhl held faculty positions at the University of Texas at Austin, the New York University Stern School of Business, and Penn State University.<ref>{{Cite web |title=New Faculty Focus: Kim Joseph Ruhl |url=https://ls.wisc.edu/news/new-faculty-focus-kim-joseph-ruhl |access-date=2025-11-19 |website=College of Letters & Science, University of Wisconsin-Madison |language=en}}</ref>
He was appointed to the Mary Sue and Mike Shannon Chair in Economics in 2018, a position he held until 2022, when he was named the Curt and Sue Culver Chair of Economics.<ref name=":5">{{Cite web |date=2019-04-04 |title=Ruhl, Kim |url=https://crowe.wisc.edu/staff/ruhl-kim/ |access-date=2025-11-19 |website=CROWE |language=en-US}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |title=Trading Policies: Kim Ruhl Joins The UW Now Livestream to Discuss Presidential Platforms Ahead of the 2024 Election {{!}} Wisconsin Alumni Association |url=https://www.uwalumni.com/news/trading-policies-kim-ruhl-joins-the-uw-now-livestream-to-discuss-presidential-platforms-ahead-of-the-2024-election/ |access-date=2025-11-19 |website=www.uwalumni.com |language=en}}</ref><ref name=":4" />
Since 2022, Ruhl has also served as co-director at the Center for Research on the Wisconsin Economy (CROWE), where he oversees the center's data initiative.<ref name=":5" /><ref>{{Cite web |last=Hannemann |first=Benjamin |title=Center for Research on the Wisconsin Economy (CROWE, UW-Madison) |url=https://www.bradleyimpactfund.org/areas-of-impact-listing/center-for-research-on-the-wisconsin-economy-crowe-uw-madison |access-date=2025-11-19 |website=www.bradleyimpactfund.org |language=en}}</ref> The initiative centralizes state-level data resources and produces analysis relevant to policymakers on the Wisconsin economy.<ref name=":3" />
Ruhl has held various editorial roles, including co-editor of the Journal of International Economics, and associate editor at Economics Letters and the Review of Economic Dynamics.<ref>{{Cite web |title=Professor Kim Ruhl {{!}} The Weslie and William Janeway Institute for Economics |url=https://www.janeway.econ.cam.ac.uk/person/professor-kim-ruhl |access-date=2025-11-19 |website=www.janeway.econ.cam.ac.uk}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |title=Kim RUHL |url=https://www.lesrencontreseconomiques.fr/en/speakers/kim-ruhl/ |access-date=2025-11-19 |website=Les Rencontres Économiques |language=en-US}}</ref><ref name=":5" />
Ruhl served as a Special Sworn Researcher at the U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and has received National Science Foundation research grants.<ref name="bea.gov"/><ref name=":2" /><ref>{{Cite web |title=Research Using Company-Level Data {{!}} U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) |url=https://www.bea.gov/research/special-sworn-researcher-program/papers |access-date=2025-11-19 |website=www.bea.gov |language=en}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |title=Search Results - NSF Award Search |url=https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/search-results/?queryText=kim%20ruhl |access-date=2025-11-19 |website=www.nsf.gov}}</ref> He is a research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), where he is affiliated with the International Trade and Investment and International Finance and Macroeconomics programs.<ref name="Three NBER Affiliates Join CEA"/>
== Research and contributions == Ruhl's research spans three distinct trajectories in international economics: multinational firms, firm dynamics and trade, and trade policy uncertainty.
=== Multinational firms ===
==== Multinational firms' offshore profit shifting and Aggregate Measurement ==== In a 2017 study with economists Fatih Guvenen, Raymond Mataloni, and Dylan Rassier, Ruhl examined how U.S. multinational corporations shift profits to low-tax jurisdictions, causing distortions in official U.S economic statistics, particularly in the measurement of GDP and productivity growth.<ref name=":6">{{Citation |last=Guvenen |first=Fatih |title=Offshore Profit Shifting and Aggregate Measurement: Balance of Payments, Foreign Investment, Productivity, and the Labor Share |date=2017-04-01 |type=Working Paper |url=https://www.nber.org/papers/w23324 |access-date=2025-11-19 |series=Working Paper Series |publisher=National Bureau of Economic Research |doi=10.3386/w23324 |id=23324 |last2=Mataloni |first2=Jr., Raymond J. |last3=Rassier |first3=Dylan G. |last4=Ruhl |first4=Kim J.}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |title=Hutchins Roundup: Dodd-Frank, productivity mismeasurement, and more |url=https://www.brookings.edu/articles/hutchins-roundup-dodd-frank-productivity-mismeasurement-and-more/ |access-date=2025-11-19 |website=Brookings |language=en-US}}</ref> The researchers utilized data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis on multinational enterprises between the years 1982 and 2016 to reattribute earnings on U.S. Direct Investment Abroad (USDIA). Using labor compensation and sales to unaffiliated parties as proxies for the true location of economic activity, they reattributed 38% of earnings on USDIA back to the United States, from low-tax countries such as Bermuda, Ireland, and the Netherlands.<ref>{{Cite web |title=Profit Shifting Affects Calculations of US Growth Rate |url=https://www.nber.org/digest/jul17/profit-shifting-affects-calculations-us-growth-rate |access-date=2025-11-19 |website=NBER |language=en}}</ref><ref name=":7">{{Cite journal |last=Guvenen |first=Fatih |last2=Mataloni, Jr |first2=Raymond J. |last3=Rassier |first3=Dylan G. |last4=Ruhl |first4=Kim J. |date=2017-04-01 |title=Offshore Profit Shifting and Aggregate Measurement: Balance of Payments, Foreign Investment, Productivity, and the Labor Share |url=https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w23324/w23324.pdf |journal=NBER Working Paper |issue=23324}}</ref> The study concluded that adjusting for profit shifting would raise U.S. aggregate productivity growth rates and measured GDP.<ref name=":7" />
The study's findings contribute to ongoing economic debates about the role of measurement in understanding key trends in economic performance, including the productivity slowdown and the decline in the labor share.<ref name=":6" /><ref>{{Cite web |last=Hebous |first=Shafik |last2=Klemm |first2=Alexander |last3=Wu |first3=Yuou |date=2021-02-01 |title=IMF Working Paper. How Does Profit Shifting Affect the Balance of Payments? |url=https://www.imf.org/en/-/media/files/publications/wp/2021/english/wpiea2021041-print-pdf.pdf |access-date=2025-11-19 |website=International Monetary Fund}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |last=Forero |first=Margarita Lopez |date=2024-12-01 |title=Banque de France Working Paper. Aggregate Labor Share and Tax Havens: Things are not always what they seem |url=https://www.banque-france.fr/system/files/2024-12/WP982.pdf? |access-date=2025-11-19 |website=Banque de France}}</ref>
==== Intrafirm Trade and Vertical Fragmentation in the U.S. Multinational Enterprises ==== In a 2016 study with economists Natalia Ramondo and Veronica Rappoport, Ruhl analyzed trade flows within U.S. multinational corporations using Bureau of Economic Analysis data from 2004.<ref name=":8">{{Cite journal |last=Ramondo |first=Natalia |last2=Rappoport |first2=Veronica |last3=Ruhl |first3=Kim J. |date=2016-01-01 |title=Intrafirm trade and vertical fragmentation in U.S. multinational corporations |url=https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0022199615001257 |journal=Journal of International Economics |volume=98 |issue=c |pages=51–59}}</ref> The research found that the transactions between a parent company and its foreign affiliates, otherwise known as intrafirm trade, are relatively rare compared to what previous literature has shown.<ref name=":9">{{Cite web |last=Vieira |first=Helena |date=2016-08-19 |title=Most multinationals use unaffiliated suppliers in their supply chains - LSE Business Review |url=https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/businessreview/2016/08/19/most-multinationals-use-unaffiliated-suppliers-in-their-supply-chains/ |access-date=2025-11-19 |website=LSE Business Review - Social Sciences for Business, Markets, and Enterprises}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal |last=Alfaro |first=Laura |last2=Charlton |first2=Andrew |date=2009 |title=Intra-industry Foreign Direct Investment |url=https://www.hbs.edu/ris/Publication%20Files/Intra-Industry%20Foreign%20Direct%20Investment_a80f0751-823e-4fea-aab3-6596d31b5916.pdf |journal=American Economic Review |volume=99 |issue=5 |pages=2096–2119.}}</ref> It also showed that it is highly concentrated among a small number of large affiliates, with the median manufacturing affiliate shipping nothing to or from its parent company and the largest 5% of affiliates, accounting for approximately half of all trade between parents and affiliates.<ref name=":9" /><ref>{{Cite journal |last=Blanas |first=Sotiris |last2=Seric |first2=Adnan |date=2018 |title=Determinants of intra-firm trade: Evidence from foreign affiliates in Sub-Saharan Africa |url=https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/roie.12348 |journal=Review of International Economics |language=en |volume=26 |issue=4 |pages=917–956 |doi=10.1111/roie.12348 |issn=1467-9396}}</ref>
The study also questioned the validity of input–output linkages, a commonly used measure for vertical fragmentation, as a reliable tool for explaining intrafirm trade within multinational enterprises.<ref>{{Cite web |date=2015-10-07 |title=How US corporations structure their international production chains |url=https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/how-us-corporations-structure-their-international-production-chains |access-date=2025-11-19 |website=CEPR |language=en}}</ref><ref name=":8" /> Despite its common usage in the literature, the authors found that there was no significant relationship between the flow of goods between parents and affiliates and the input-output links between them.<ref>{{Cite web |last=Blanas |first=Sotiris |last2=Seric |first2=Adnan |date=2017 |title=Knowledge Transfer and Intra-Firm Trade |url=https://www.lancaster.ac.uk/media/lancaster-university/content-assets/documents/lums/economics/working-papers/LancasterWP2017_020.pdf |access-date=2025-11-19 |website=Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department}}</ref> They concluded that multinational firm boundaries may be shaped more by the transfer of intangible assets such as knowledge and capabilities than by the shipment of physical goods.
=== Firm dynamics and trade === Ruhl's body of work on firm-level behavior in international trade foregrounds how dynamic adjustment, uncertainty, and firm heterogeneity influence import patterns and aggregate trade outcomes.<ref>{{Citation |last=Boehm |first=Christoph |title=Dynamic Models, New Gains from Trade? |date=2024-06-01 |work=NBER |issue=w32565 |type=Working Paper |url=https://www.nber.org/papers/w32565 |access-date=2025-11-19 |series=Working Paper Series |publisher=National Bureau of Economic Research |doi=10.3386/w32565 |id=32565 |last2=Levchenko |first2=Andrei A. |last3=Pandalai-Nayar |first3=Nitya |last4=Toma |first4=Hiroshi}}</ref> In a 2014 working paper (published in 2021), co-authored with economists George Alessandria and Horag Choi, Ruhl developed a dynamic general equilibrium model that incorporated time and risk into the fixed-variable cost tradeoff.<ref name=":10">{{Citation |last=Alessandria |first=George |title=Trade Adjustment Dynamics and the Welfare Gains from Trade |date=2014-11-01 |type=Working Paper |url=https://www.nber.org/papers/w20663 |access-date=2025-11-19 |series=Working Paper Series |publisher=National Bureau of Economic Research |doi=10.3386/w20663 |id=20663 |last2=Choi |first2=Horag |last3=Ruhl |first3=Kim}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal |last=Alessandria |first=George |last2=Choi |first2=Horag |last3=Ruhl |first3=Kim J. |date=2021 |title=Trade adjustment dynamics and the welfare gains from trade |url=https://ideas.repec.org//a/eee/inecon/v131y2021ics0022199621000350.html |journal=Journal of International Economics |language=en |volume=131 |issue=C}}</ref> The model demonstrated that aggregate trade dynamics result from producer-level decisions to invest gradually and with uncertainty to reduce their future variable export costs. It further showed that tariff reforms generate time-varying trade elasticities.<ref>{{Cite journal |last=Monarch |first=Ryan |last2=Schmidt-Eisenlohr |first2=Tim |date=2023-11-01 |title=Longevity and the value of trade relationships |url=https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022199623001289 |journal=Journal of International Economics |volume=145 |article-number=103842 |doi=10.1016/j.jinteco.2023.103842 |issn=0022-1996}}</ref><ref name=":11">{{Cite web |last=Alessandria |first=George |last2=Choi |first2=Horag |last3=Ruhl |first3=Kim J. |date=2014 |title=Trade adjustment dynamics and the welfare gains from trade |url=https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/frbp/assets/working-papers/2014/wp14-14.pdf |access-date=2025-11-19 |website=Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia}}</ref> Their findings suggest that the benefits of lowering tariffs mostly come from firms focusing on increasing how much they export, rather than creating new exporting firms.<ref name=":11" />
This dynamic approach contrasts with the static models that do not take into account change over time, and have traditionally dominated the international trade literature.<ref name=":10" /><ref>{{Cite journal |last=Costinot |first=Arnaud |last2=Rodríguez-Clare |first2=Andrés |date=2014 |title=Chapter 4 - Trade Theory with Numbers: Quantifying the Consequences of Globalization |url=https://economics.mit.edu/sites/default/files/publications/CRC_Handbook.pdf |journal=Handbook of International Economics |volume=4 |pages=197–261}}</ref>
Building on this trajectory, for a 2017 study with economist Jonathon Willis, titled "New Exporter Dynamics," Ruhl used detailed data from Colombian manufacturing plants to study new exporters' behavior over time. They found that new exporters initially exported small amounts, grew gradually, and were most likely to exit the export market in their first few years, with only 63% surviving to export the following year.<ref name=":12">{{Cite journal |last=Ruhl |first=Kim J. |last2=Willis |first2=Jonathan L. |date=2017-08-01 |title=New Exporter Dynamics |url=https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/iere.12232 |journal=International Economic Review |volume=58 |issue=3 |pages=703–725}}</ref> Their findings denote that survival dynamics are more complex than traditional sunk cost models suggest, as standard sunk-cost models assume immediate large-scale exporting upon entry, thus failing to capture these patterns of slow growth and early exit.<ref name=":12" /><ref>{{Cite web |last=Mix |first=Carter |date=2020-10-01 |title=Technology, Geography, and Trade over Time: The Dynamic Effects of Changing Trade Policy |url=https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/ifdp/files/ifdp1304.pdf |website=Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System}}</ref>
To address this, Ruhl and Willis introduced a model that incorporates gradual investment and uncertainty in exporting decisions to account for the high turnover and slow growth patterns observed in data. They found that the entry costs needed to match the data were three times smaller than those in the standard sunk-cost model, highlighting customer base accumulation and learning.<ref name=":12" /><ref>{{Citation |last=Fitzgerald |first=Doireann |title=Exporters and Shocks: Dissecting the International Elasticity Puzzle |date=2014-03-01 |type=Working Paper |url=https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w19968/w19968.pdf |access-date=2025-11-19 |series=Working Paper Series |publisher=National Bureau of Economic Research |doi=10.3386/w19968 |id=19968 |last2=Haller |first2=Stefanie}}</ref><ref name=":13">{{Cite journal |last=Alessandria |first=George |last2=Johnson |first2=Robert C. |last3=Yi |first3=Kei-Mu |date=2023-10-02 |title=Perspectives on trade and structural transformation |journal=Oxford Development Studies |volume=51 |issue=4 |pages=455–475 |doi=10.1080/13600818.2023.2279665 |issn=1360-0818}}</ref> The researchers concluded that dynamic models with richer plant-level heterogeneity are needed to accurately represent exporter behavior.<ref>{{Cite journal |last=Alessandria |first=George |last2=Avila |first2=Oscar |date=2020-06-01 |title=Trade Integration in Colombia: A Dynamic General Equilibrium Study with New Exporter Dynamics |url=https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165188920300403 |journal=Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control |series=St. Louis Fed -JEDC-SCG-SNB-UniBern Conference, titled "Disaggregate Data and Macroeconomic Models" |volume=115 |article-number=103871 |doi=10.1016/j.jedc.2020.103871 |issn=0165-1889}}</ref>
Surveying the literature on firm dynamics and trade, in a 2021 paper co-authored with economists George Alessandria and Costas Arkolakis, Ruhl contended that dynamic models produce substantially different welfare predictions than static models when past export participation is taken into consideration for current export status prediction.<ref name=":14">{{Cite journal |last=Alessandria |first=George |last2=Arkolakis |first2=Costas |last3=Ruhl |first3=Kim J. |date=2021-08-05 |title=Firm Dynamics and Trade |url=https://www.annualreviews.org/content/journals/10.1146/annurev-economics-090919-025159 |journal=Annual Review of Economics |language=en |volume=13 |issue= |pages=253–280 |doi=10.1146/annurev-economics-090919-025159 |issn=1941-1383}}</ref> The study showed that static models fail to approximate the short-run or long-run outcomes of dynamic adjustment processes.<ref name=":13" />
The survey has identified current unresolved questions in trade policy, including how uncertainty, temporary policies, and pre-announced future policies influence firm decisions and aggregate outcomes. The authors called for research integrating firm-level dynamic decisions across multiple destinations with geographic trade cost models.<ref name=":14" />
=== Trade policy uncertainty === Ruhl's research on trade policy uncertainty examines how temporary trade policies and uncertainty about their duration affect firm behavior and aggregate trade outcomes.<ref>{{Cite journal |last=Ahmed |first=Walid M. A. |last2=Sleem |first2=Mohamed A. E. |date=2024-12-31 |title=US domestic sentiment reactions to climate and economic policy uncertainties: a quantile ARDL approach |journal=Journal of Applied Economics |volume=27 |issue=1 |article-number=2405779 |doi=10.1080/15140326.2024.2405779 |issn=1514-0326}}</ref>
In a 2011 study, he developed a dynamic model analyzing producer responses to Canada's 2003 bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) case, which triggered a worldwide ban on Canadian beef imports of uncertain duration.<ref>{{Cite web |title=U.S. Blocks Canadian Beef Imports |url=https://www.iatp.org/news/us-blocks-canadian-beef-imports |access-date=2025-11-19 |website=www.iatp.org |language=en}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal |last=Ruhl |first=Kim J. |date=2010-12-21 |title=Trade Dynamics under Policy Uncertainty |url=https://academic.oup.com/ajae/article-abstract/93/2/450/53031?redirectedFrom=fulltext |journal=American Journal of Agricultural Economics |language=en |volume=93 |issue=2 |pages=450–456 |doi=10.1093/ajae/aaq161 |issn=0002-9092 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180603223107/https://academic.oup.com/ajae/article-abstract/93/2/450/53031?redirectedFrom=fulltext |archive-date=2018-06-03 |access-date=2025-11-19 |url-status=live }}</ref> The model incorporated "time to build" constraints in cattle production and showed that producers' expectations about the policy duration significantly influenced immediate production and investment decisions.<ref>{{Cite journal |last=Gopinath |first=Munisamy |date=2021 |title=Does Trade Policy Uncertainty Affect Agriculture? |url=https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/aepp.13083 |journal=Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy |language=en |volume=43 |issue=2 |pages=604–618 |doi=10.1002/aepp.13083 |issn=2040-5804}}</ref> Calibrated to observed data, the model replicated the sharp decline in slaughter rates and investment in new calves during the ban period, demonstrating that longer expected policy durations produced stronger immediate impacts on production decisions.
In a related strand of research, Ruhl co-authored a 2025 study with George Alessandria, Shafaat Yar Khan, Armen Khederlarian and Joseph Steinberg, which examined the evolution of trade policy uncertainty through the lens of US-China relations, over the course of six decades, between 1950 and 2008.<ref>{{Citation |last=Alessandria |first=George A. |title=Trade-Policy Dynamics: Evidence from 60 Years of U.S.-China Trade |date=2021-08-01 |type=Working Paper |url=https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w29122/w29122.pdf |access-date=2025-11-19 |series=Working Paper Series |publisher=National Bureau of Economic Research |doi=10.3386/w29122 |id=29122 |last2=Khan |first2=Shafaat Y. |last3=Khederlarian |first3=Armen |last4=Ruhl |first4=Kim J. |last5=Steinberg |first5=Joseph B.}}</ref> The research documented how shifting tariff regimes, from embargo to normalization and China's accession to the World Trade Organization, affected trade flows dynamically rather than through immediate responses to tariff changes alone. Ruhl and co-authors developed a framework to separate the effects of past trade policy reform from expectations about future policy changes.<ref name=":15">{{Cite web |title=Trade-Policy Dynamics: Evidence from 60 Years of US-China Trade |url=https://voxchina.org/show-3-276.html |access-date=2025-11-19 |website=voxchina.org}}</ref> They contended that the 1980 decision to grant China most-favored nation (MFN) tariff rates lowered U.S. trade barriers, but that Chinese exports did not surge immediately because firms feared the policy could be reversed during annual congressional reviews.<ref>{{Cite web |last=Salam |first=Reihan |date=2018-06-08 |title=Normalizing Trade Relations With China Was a Mistake |url=https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2018/06/normalizing-trade-relations-with-china-was-a-mistake/562403/ |access-date=2025-11-19 |website=The Atlantic |language=en}}</ref><ref>{{Cite news |date=2024-05-21 |title=Taking the Long View of U.S.-China Trade |url=https://poole.ncsu.edu/thought-leadership/article/taking-the-long-view-of-u-s-china-trade/ |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240619174313/https://poole.ncsu.edu/thought-leadership/article/taking-the-long-view-of-u-s-china-trade/ |archive-date=2024-06-19 |access-date=2025-11-19 |work=Poole Thought Leadership |language=en-US |url-status=live }}</ref> This persistent uncertainty discouraged Chinese producers from making the large, upfront investments required to enter and scale in the U.S. market, causing export growth to unfold slowly over several decades rather than all at once. Using historical data and a dynamic model of exporter behavior, the study finds that resolving this long-standing uncertainty was a major driver of the eventual expansion in Chinese exports during the 1990s and 2000s.<ref name=":15" />
== Government service == On February 4, 2025, Ruhl was appointed as a member of President Donald Trump's Council of Economic Advisors (CEA).<ref>{{Cite news |date=2025-02-04 |title=Trump appointed two new members to his White House Council of Economic Advisers |url=https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/02/04/us/trump-administration-rfk-jr-gabbard |access-date=2025-11-19 |language=en}}</ref><ref name=":1" /><ref>{{Cite web |last=Swartz |first=Sam |date=2025-02-05 |title=UW-Madison economics professor picked as member for Trump's Council of Economic Advisers |url=https://www.wmtv15news.com/2025/02/05/uw-madison-economics-professor-picked-member-trumps-council-economic-advisers/ |access-date=2025-11-19 |website=wmtv15news |language=en}}</ref> His selection marked a milestone for the University of Wisconsin-Madison as the first sitting economist to serve as a member of the council.<ref>{{Cite web |last=Frederick |first=Zindzi |title=UW Economics Professor appointed to President's Council of Economic Advisers |url=https://badgerherald.com/news/breaking/2025/02/05/uw-economics-professor-appointed-to-presidents-council-of-economic-advisers/ |access-date=2025-11-19 |website=The Badger Herald}}</ref><ref name=":0" /> Ruhl's leave of absence at the University ended in February 2026. He left the council on February 27, 2026 and returned to UW-Madison. He was succeeded by Aaron Hedlund.<ref name=":16" />
== References == {{Reflist}}
{{DEFAULTSORT:Ruhl, Kim}} Category:Living people Category:21st-century American economists Category:People from Madison, Wisconsin Category:University of Minnesota alumni Category:Bowling Green State University alumni Category:Year of birth missing (living people)