{{Short description|2024 book by Marcel Dirsus}} {{Infobox book | name = How Tyrants Fall: And How Nations Survive | author = Marcel Dirsus | language = English | country = United Kingdom | subject = Political science | publisher = John Murray | isbn = 978-1399809481 | image = File:How_Tyrants_Fall.jpg | size = | series = | pub_date = 2024 | english_pub_date = | media_type = Print | pages = 304 pp. | dewey = | congress = | oclc = | followed_by = }} '''''How Tyrants Fall: And How Nations Survive''''' is a 2024 non-fiction book written by Marcel Dirsus and published by John Murray.<ref name=":0">{{Cite news |last=Anil |first=Pratinav |date=2024-08-21 |title=How Tyrants Fall by Marcel Dirsus review – road to revolution |url=https://www.theguardian.com/books/article/2024/aug/21/how-tyrants-fall-marcel-dirsus-review-plotting-coup |access-date=2024-11-26 |work=The Guardian |language=en-GB |issn=0261-3077}}</ref><ref name=":1">{{Cite news |title=Taking on the global brotherhood of despots |url=https://www.economist.com/culture/2024/07/17/taking-on-the-global-brotherhood-of-despots |access-date=2024-11-26 |work=The Economist |issn=0013-0613}}</ref> The book examines historical strategies for overthrowing dictators and their effectiveness in the modern era, particularly in the context of contemporary mass surveillance technologies.<ref name=":2">{{Cite news |title=The best books of 2024, as chosen by The Economist |url=https://www.economist.com/culture/2024/11/22/the-best-books-of-2024-as-chosen-by-the-economist |access-date=2024-11-26 |work=The Economist |issn=0013-0613}}</ref>
The book has been recognized as one of the "Books of the Year" by ''The Economist''.''<ref name=":2" /><ref name=":3" />'' It has been translated into ten languages.<ref name=":3" />
== Summary == The book draws on historical evidence to explore the downfall of dictators. To inform his writing, the author consulted with a diverse range of experts, including diplomats, journalists, regime opponents, ex-spies, and nuclear experts.<ref name=":3">{{Cite web |date=2024-10-21 |title=Bringing down dictators: "Contrary to myth, tyrants are fragile. Most fall in the end" |url=https://www.calcalistech.com/ctechnews/article/bo42vy8rf |access-date=2024-11-26 |website=ctech |language=en}}</ref> The author notes that every dictator has vulnerabilities, asserting that "even if the price is heavy, there is room for hope. These people can be brought down, and sometimes it happens in an instant."<ref name=":3" />
Dirsus cites research showing that since World War II, 23% of national rulers lost power through exile or imprisonment, with the figure rising to 69% for dictators, who were often exiled, imprisoned, or killed.<ref name=":4">{{Cite news |last=Coughlin |first=Con |date=2024-06-30 |title=How do you get rid of a dictator? Here are some tips |url=https://www.telegraph.co.uk/books/non-fiction/review-marcel-dirsus-how-tyrants-fall/ |access-date=2024-11-26 |work=The Telegraph |language=en-GB |issn=0307-1235}}</ref><ref name=":0" /> He characterizes dictatorships as inherently unstable, susceptible to collapse from even seemingly minor events.<ref name=":0" /> The author demonstrates that non-violent campaigns are almost ten times more likely to result in democratic outcomes than violent uprisings, with 57% of successful non-violent movements leading to democracy, compared to less than 6% for violent ones.<ref name=":1" /><ref name=":5">{{Cite news |last=Judah |first=Tim |date=2024-07-27 |title=Can tyrants be curtailed? |url=https://www.ft.com/content/5f622c1d-f36f-478b-8c2f-60d34d3e6941 |access-date=2024-11-26 |work=Financial Times}}</ref> It also suggests that autocrats who embrace democratic reforms tend to have safer and more peaceful post-leadership lives.<ref name=":1" /> Furthermore, it notes that party-based autocratic systems are generally more stable than regimes centered around individual leaders.<ref name=":1" />
The book discusses the Romanian revolution of 1989 as an example of how dictators often misjudge their power. On December 21, 1989, Nicolae Ceaușescu's speech to a crowd in Bucharest turned into a disaster, with the audience heckling him in response to the regime's brutal suppression of protests.<ref name=":4" /> Fearing for their safety, the Ceaușescus attempted to flee by helicopter but were soon informed that the military had turned against them. Their subsequent capture led to a quick trial and execution. Dirsus notes Ceaușescu's overconfidence, writing that he failed to prepare for the possibility of his downfall, making his escape impossible once the situation turned against him.<ref name=":4" />
Drawing on Erica Chenoweth's "3.5% rule", the author asserts that mass protests involving just 3.5% of the population can be enough to topple a regime.<ref name=":0" /> According to this rule, "no revolution has failed once 3.5% of the population mobilized at the peak of resistance, whether through mass protests or other forms of non-cooperation."<ref name=":3" /> The author argues that while regimes like North Korea are skilled at preventing mass protests, diminishing their effectiveness, such movements can succeed with toppling regimes such as the Islamic Republic of Iran.<ref name=":3" /> In addressing such movements, he advises against violent suppression, writing that "if you shoot, you lose," as escalating violence tends to fuel further cycles of resistance and repression.<ref name=":0" />
The book highlights that overthrowing well-established tyrannies such as North Korea and Iran can be challenging. Dirsus demonstrates that such changes typically occur through internal conflicts or the defection of key allies, citing historical examples such as the overthrow of Ferdinand Marcos in 1986 and Francisco Macias Nguema in 1979.<ref name=":4" />
The book's actionable recommendations for removing tyrants are presented in its concluding section.<ref name=":0" /> The author proposes a strategy centered on weakening the leader, strengthening the elites, and empowering the masses. He suggests specific actions such as halting weapons shipments that dictators might use against their citizens, imposing economic sanctions to limit their ability to reward allies, and disrupting access to surveillance software to hinder the tracking of opponents.<ref name=":3" /><ref name=":0" /> The book also critiques Western complicity in enabling despots to acquire significant assets in democratic economies, citing examples like Qatar Holdings LLC's stake in Volkswagen.<ref name=":0" />
== Reception == The book has been recognized as one of the "Books of the Year" by ''The Economist''.''<ref name=":2" /><ref name=":3" /> The Daily Telegraph'' described it as "thought-provoking" and "entertaining".<ref name=":4" /> The ''Financial Times'' called it a "compelling book".<ref name=":5" />
As of October 2024, the book has been translated into ten languages.<ref name=":3" />
== See also ==
* ''Coup d'État: A Practical Handbook''
== References == <references /> Category:2024 non-fiction books Category:Books about coups d'état Category:Political science books Category:John Murray (publishing house) books Category:Books about revolutions Category:Dictatorship