{{Short description|American public opinion analyst}} {{Use mdy dates|date=January 2022}} {{Use American English|date=January 2022}} {{Infobox person | name = Elmo Roper | birth_date = {{birth date|1900|7|31|mf=y}} | birth_place = Hebron, Nebraska, United States | death_date = {{death date and age|1971|4|30|1900|7|31}} | death_place = West Redding, Connecticut, United States | occupation = Public opinion analyst | years_active = 1933–1966 }}
'''Elmo Burns Roper Jr.''' (July 31, 1900 in Hebron, Nebraska – April 30, 1971 in Redding, Connecticut) was an American pollster known for his pioneering work in market research and opinion polling, alongside friends-cum-rivals Archibald Crossley and George Gallup.
== Early life == Elmo Burns Roper, Jr. was born in Hebron, Nebraska, on July 31, 1900. His father, Elmo Burns Roper, was a banker. After receiving his preliminary education, he attended the University of Minnesota and the University of Edinburgh from 1919 to 1921, but did not receive a degree. In 1921, he started a jewelry store, which made him interested in customer opinions. However, the store was closed in 1928. In the following years, he worked as a salesman for the Seth Thomas Clock Company and the New Haven Clock Company. In 1933, during the Great Depression, Roper became a sales analyst for the Traub Manufacturing Company.<ref name = ":Wells" >{{Cite web|last=Wells|first=Harwell|date=2000|orig-date=1999|title=Roper, Elmo|url=https://www.anb.org/view/10.1093/anb/9780198606697.001.0001/anb-9780198606697-e-0700462|url-access=subscription|url-status=live|access-date=January 6, 2022|website=American National Biography|publisher=Oxford University Press|doi=10.1093/anb/9780198606697.article.0700462|isbn=978-0-19-860669-7 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180603002952/http://www.anb.org/view/10.1093/anb/9780198606697.001.0001/anb-9780198606697-e-0700462 |archive-date=June 3, 2018 }}</ref><ref name = ":Encyclopædia Britannica" >{{Cite encyclopedia|title=Elmo Roper|encyclopedia=Encyclopædia Britannica|url=https://www.britannica.com/biography/Elmo-Burns-Roper-Jr|access-date=January 6, 2022|date=July 27, 2021}}</ref><ref name = ":White" >{{Cite book|last=White|first=Eric|title=Encyclopedia of Survey Research Methods|publisher=SAGE Publications|year=2008|isbn=978-1-4129-1808-4|editor-last=Lavrakas|editor-first=Paul J.|chapter=Roper, Elmo (1900–1971)}}</ref>{{Rp|page=769}}
== Career == In 1933,<ref name = ":Roper Center" >{{Cite web|title=Elmo Roper|url=https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/pioneers-polling/elmo-roper|url-status=live|access-date=January 6, 2021|publisher=Roper Center for Public Opinion Research|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190607204540/https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/pioneers-polling/elmo-roper |archive-date=June 7, 2019 }}</ref> Roper, alongside Richardson Wood and Paul T. Cherington, co-founded "Cherington, Wood, and Roper", a marketing research firm. Woods suggested Henry Luce, the director of ''Fortune'' magazine, to include survey of social and political trend in the magazine; Luce agreed.<ref name = ":Wells" /> Subsequently in 1935, Roper became the director of the ''Fortune'' survey.<ref name = ":Roper Center" /> Unlike other popular surveys, his survey relied on relatively fewer respondents. This initially lead to many questioning poll's accuracy.<ref name = ":Wells" /> The ''Fortune'' survey was the first national poll to use scientific sampling strategies.<ref name = ":White" />
In the 1936 presidential election, incumbent Democratic President Franklin D. Roosevelt was challenged by Alf Landon, the Republican candidate.<ref name = ":The New York Times" >{{Cite news|date=May 1, 1971|title=Elmo Roper, Pollster, Is Dead; Predicted '36 Roosevelt Victory|work=The New York Times|url=https://www.nytimes.com/1971/05/01/archives/elmo-roper-pollster-is-dead-predicted-36-roosevelt-victory-adapted.html|access-date=January 6, 2022}} </ref>''The Literary Digest''{{'s}} presidential poll, which surveyed millions of people, predicted Landon to win. However, Roper, and other pollsters like George Gallup and Archibald Crossley predicted Roosevelt's re-election.<ref name = ":Wells" /> Roper predicted Roosevelt to receive 61.7% of the popular vote.<ref name=":The New York Times" /> His prediction was correct to within 0.9%;<ref name = ":St. Petersburg Times" >{{Cite news|last=Andrews|first=Charles H.|date=May 4, 1944|title=Odds Favor Roosevelt for Fourth Term, Should He Run, Elmo Roper Predicts|work=St. Petersburg Times|url=https://news.google.com/newspapers?id=D6FPAAAAIBAJ&sjid=yE4DAAAAIBAJ&pg=3432%2C8777|access-date=January 6, 2021|via=Google News}}</ref> Roosevelt received 60.7% of the popular vote.<ref name=":The New York Times" /> In the 1940 presidential election, Roper again predicted Roosevelt's victory against Wendell Willkie. His prediction was correct to within 0.5%.<ref name=":St. Petersburg Times" /> In the 1944 presidential election, he again accurately predicted Roosevelt to win a fourth term against Thomas E. Dewey.<ref name=":St. Petersburg Times" />
In the 1948 presidential election, however, Roper predicted Dewey to defeat the incumbent Democratic President Harry S. Truman. He announced that his organization would discontinue polling since it had already predicted Dewey's victory by a large majority of electoral votes.<ref name = ":Lemelin" >{{Cite journal|last=Lemelin|first=Bernard|date=2001|title=The U.S. Presidential Election of 1948 – The Causes of Truman's 'Astonishing' Victory|journal=Revue française d'études américaines|volume=87|pages=38–61|doi=10.3917/rfea.087.0038|issn=0397-7870|doi-access=free}}</ref>{{Rp|page=42}} He said that his whole inclination was to predict Dewey's victory by a heavy margin, and to devote his time and efforts in other things.<ref name = ":Frantz" >{{Cite book|last=Frantz|first=Douglas|author-link=Douglas Frantz|title=Friends in High Places – The Rise and Fall of Clark Clifford|publisher=Little, Brown and Company|year=1995|isbn=978-0-316-29162-0|lccn=95002361|ol=1271143M|url=https://archive.org/details/friendsinhighpla00fran/mode/2up?view=theater|access-date=November 8, 2021|url-access=registration|via=the Internet Archive}}</ref>{{Rp|page=86}} His latest poll showed Dewey leading by an "unbeatable" 44% to Truman's 31%.<ref name = ":Lemelin" />{{Rp|page=42}}
When that partnership fell apart, he founded his own research company, Elmo Roper, Inc.
In 1940, Roosevelt hired Roper to assess public opinion of Lend-Lease prior to its implementation.{{cn|date=January 2022}}
In 1942 he was hired by William Joseph Donovan to be the deputy director of the Office of Strategic Services; Roper subsequently worked with the Office of War Information. After leaving the OWI he founded the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research at the Williams College in 1947.
From 1956 he served as chairman of board of directors of Fund for the Republic<ref>[https://www.nytimes.com/1956/11/21/archives/fund-for-republic-elects-chairman-and-3-new-directors.html Fund for Republic Elects Chairman and 3 New Directors], in ''The New York Times''; published 21 November 1956; retrieved 5 October 2021</ref><ref>{{Cite web|url=https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/pioneers-polling/elmo-roper|title = Elmo Roper | Roper Center for Public Opinion Research}}</ref> succeeding Paul G. Hoffman.
Roper Opinion Research Company (the "Roper Poll") was later renamed Roper Starch Worldwide Company and eventually acquired by NOP World and then GfK in 2005.
== Personal life and family== His son, Bud Roper, was also a pollster.<ref>[http://www.stat.cmu.edu/~fienberg/Stat36-303-03/NewspaperArticles/RoperObit-StarTribune-1-23-03.html Pioneering pollster Burns Roper dead at 77] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150924105848/http://www.stat.cmu.edu/~fienberg/Stat36-303-03/NewspaperArticles/RoperObit-StarTribune-1-23-03.html |date=September 24, 2015 }}, Associated Press, January 23, 2003, archived at Carnegie Mellon University.</ref>
== See also == * Harry S. Truman 1948 presidential campaign
== References == {{Reflist}}
{{-}} {{authority control}} {{DEFAULTSORT:Roper, Elmo}} Category:1900 births Category:1971 deaths Category:People of the Office of Strategic Services Category:People of the United States Office of War Information Category:American political consultants Category:Market researchers Category:Pollsters Category:People from Hebron, Nebraska Category:20th-century American statisticians