{{Short description|American econometrician and macroeconomist (1942–2026)}} {{redirect|Christopher Sims}} {{Use mdy dates|date=October 2011}} {{Infobox economist | name = Christopher A. Sims | school_tradition = | color = | image = Nobel Prize 2011-Press Conference KVA-DSC 7720.jpg | image_size = | caption = Sims in 2011 |birth_name=Christopher Albert Sims | birth_date = {{birth date|1942|10|21}} | birth_place = Washington, D.C., U.S. | death_date = {{death date and age|2026|3|14|1942|10|21}} | death_place = Minneapolis, Minnesota, U.S. | institution = Princeton University<br />Yale University<br />University of Minnesota<br />Harvard University | field = Macroeconomics<br />Econometrics<br />Time series | doctoral_advisor = Hendrik S. Houthakker | academic_advisors = | doctoral_students = Lars Peter Hansen<br />Harald Uhlig<ref>{{cite web |title=Advantage Financial Harald Uhlig |url=http://www.advantagefinancial.net/en/knowledge-en/advantage-view/harald-uhlig/ |access-date=2016-09-28 |archive-date=October 1, 2016 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20161001185930/http://www.advantagefinancial.net/en/knowledge-en/advantage-view/harald-uhlig/ |url-status=dead }}</ref> | notable_students = | influences = | influenced = | contributions = Use of vector autoregression | awards = Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences (2011) | signature = <!-- file name only --> | repec_prefix = e | repec_id = psi12 |education=Harvard University (AB, PhD) | thesis_title = The dynamics of productivity change: a theoretical and empirical study | thesis_url = https://www.proquest.com/docview/302361291/ | thesis_year = 1968 }}
'''Christopher Albert Sims''' (October 21, 1942 – March 14, 2026) was an American econometrician and macroeconomist. He was the John J.F. Sherrerd '52 University Professor of Economics at Princeton University.<ref name=thompsonreuters>{{cite web|title=Christopher A Sims|url=http://science.thomsonreuters.com/nobel/laureates/sims-christopher|work=Thomson Reuters website|access-date=October 10, 2011|archive-date=October 17, 2011|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20111017120520/http://science.thomsonreuters.com/nobel/laureates/sims-christopher|url-status=dead}}</ref> Together with Thomas Sargent, he won the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences in 2011.<ref>{{cite news|title=Nobel prize for economics awarded to two Americans|url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15241454|access-date=October 10, 2011|newspaper=BBC News website|date=October 10, 2011}}</ref> The award cited their "empirical research on cause and effect in the macroeconomy".<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economics/laureates/2011/ |title=The Prize in Economic Sciences 2011 |publisher=Nobelprize.org |date=December 10, 2008 |access-date=October 10, 2011}}</ref>
== Background == Sims was born in Washington, D.C., the son of Ruth Bodman (Leiserson), a Democratic politician and daughter of William Morris Leiserson, and Albert Sims, a state department worker.<ref>{{Cite news | url=https://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/14/nyregion/ruth-sims-first-woman-elected-to-lead-greenwich-conn-dies-at-92.html | title=Ruth Sims, First Woman Elected to Lead Greenwich, Conn., Dies at 92| newspaper=The New York Times| date=2012-06-13| last1=Slotnik| first1=Daniel E.}}</ref> His father was of English and Northern Irish descent, and his mother was of half Estonian Jewish and half English ancestry.<ref>{{cite web|title=Christopher A. Sims - Biographical|url=https://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economic-sciences/laureates/2011/sims-bio.html|publisher=Nobel Foundation|access-date=31 May 2017}}</ref> His uncle was Yale economist Mark Leiserson.<ref>{{cite web | title=Yale Bulletin and Calendar | website=Yale University | date=2002-08-30 | url=http://archives.news.yale.edu/v31.n1/story20.html | access-date=2024-02-24}}</ref> Sims earned his A.B. in mathematics from Harvard University ''magna cum laude'' in 1963 and his PhD in economics from Harvard in 1968 under supervision of Hendrik S. Houthakker.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.dictionaryofeconomics.com/article?id=pde2012_S000550|url-status=dead|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160303202250/http://www.dictionaryofeconomics.com/article?id=pde2012_S000550|archive-date=2016-03-03|title=Sims, Christopher Albert (born 1942)}}</ref> During the 1963–64 academic year, he was a graduate student at the University of California, Berkeley. He served as a faculty member in the department of economics at the University of Minnesota for 20 years (1970–90). He also held teaching positions at Harvard, Yale University, and, from 1999, Princeton where he spent the longest portion of his career.<ref>{{cite web|title=CV (Christopher A. Sims)|url=http://sims.princeton.edu/yftp/vita4web.pdf|publisher=Princeton University|access-date=31 May 2017}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/2011/sims/biographical/|title=Christopher A. Sims|website=nobelprize.org}}</ref> Sims was a Fellow of the Econometric Society (from 1974),<ref name="fellow">{{cite web|url=http://www.econometricsociety.org/fellows.asp|title=Fellows of the Econometric Society as of February 2011|url-status=dead|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20081210090215/http://www.econometricsociety.org/fellows.asp |archive-date=December 10, 2008}}</ref> a member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences (from 1988), a member of the National Academy of Sciences (from 1989), and a member of the American Philosophical Society (from 2012).<ref>{{Cite web|title=APS Member History|url=https://search.amphilsoc.org/memhist/search?creator=Christopher+A.+Sims&title=&subject=&subdiv=&mem=&year=&year-max=&dead=&keyword=&smode=advanced|access-date=2021-03-29|website=search.amphilsoc.org}}</ref> In 1995 he was president of the Econometric Society; in 2012, he was president of the American Economic Association.
Sims died from injuries sustained in a fall at his home in Minneapolis, Minnesota, on March 14, 2026, at the age of 83.<ref>{{cite web |last1=Hagerty |first1=James R. |title=Christopher A. Sims, 83, Dies; Won Nobel for Modeling Economic Policy |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/17/business/economy/christopher-a-sims-dead.html |website=The New York Times |access-date=March 17, 2026}}</ref><ref>{{cite news |title=Christopher Sims obituary: Nobel prizewinning economist |url=https://www.thetimes.com/uk/obituaries/article/christopher-sims-obituary-nobel-prizewinning-economist-pk3prxn2r |access-date=17 May 2026 |publisher=The Times |date=17 May 2026}}</ref>
== Contributions and views == Sims published numerous important papers in his areas of research: econometrics and macroeconomic theory and policy. Among other things, he was one of the main promoters of the use of vector autoregression in empirical macroeconomics. However, some of the maintained assumptions in such models have been incorrectly tested (Sims, 1980) using asymptotic distribution theory since it is infeasible to test over 200 restrictions on model parameters using only 60 observations on time series (Sargan, 1961). He also advocated Bayesian statistics, arguing for its power in formulating and evaluating economic policies.<ref>Sims, Christopher A. "The Role of Models and Probabilities in the Monetary Policy Process". Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2002, 1-62</ref>
He was an outspoken opponent of the rational expectations revolution in macroeconomics, arguing that it should be thought of as a "cautionary footnote" to econometric policy analysis, rather than "a deep objection to its foundations."<ref>{{Cite journal | last1 = Sims | first1 = Christopher A. | last2 = Goldfeld | first2 = Stephen M. | last3 = Sachs | first3 = Jeffrey D. | year = 1982 | title = Policy Analysis with Econometric Models | journal = Brookings Papers on Economic Activity | volume = 1982 | issue = 1 | pages = 107–164 | jstor = 2534318 | url = https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/1982/01/1982a_bpea_sims_goldfeld_sachs.pdf| doi = 10.2307/2534318 }}</ref> He was similarly skeptical of the value of real business cycle models.<ref>{{Cite journal | last1 = Sims | first1 = Christopher A. | year = 1996 | title = Macroeconomics and Methodology | journal = Journal of Economic Perspectives | volume = 10 | issue = 1 | pages = 105–120 | jstor = 2138286 | doi=10.1257/jep.10.1.105 |doi-access=free| citeseerx = 10.1.1.202.8675 }}</ref>
Sims also helped develop the fiscal theory of the price level and the theory of rational inattention.
In June 2024, 16 Nobel Prize in Economics laureates, including Sims, signed an open letter arguing that Donald Trump’s fiscal and trade policies coupled with efforts to limit the Federal Reserve's independence would reignite inflation in the United States.<ref>{{cite news |last=Nichols |first=Hans |date=June 25, 2024 |title=Scoop: 16 Nobel economists see a Trump inflation bomb |url=https://www.axios.com/2024/06/25/nobel-prize-winners-biden-economy-trump-inflation |access-date=June 26, 2024 |website=Axios |publisher=Cox Enterprises}}</ref><ref>{{cite news |last=Picciotto |first=Rebecca |date=June 25, 2024 |title=Sixteen Nobel Prize-winning economists warn a second Trump term would 'reignite' inflation |url=https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/25/nobel-prize-economists-warn-trump-inflation.html |access-date=June 26, 2024 |publisher=CNBC |archive-date=June 26, 2024 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240626002547/https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/25/nobel-prize-economists-warn-trump-inflation.html |url-status=live}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |last=Picchi |first=Aimee |date=June 25, 2024 |title=16 Nobel Prize-winning economists warn that Trump's economic plans could reignite inflation |url=https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-economy-nobel-prize-winners-letter-inflation-warning/ |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240709175720/https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-economy-nobel-prize-winners-letter-inflation-warning/ |archive-date=July 9, 2024 |access-date=July 12, 2024 |website=www.cbsnews.com |language=en-US |quote=Trump's policies could prove to be inflationary, other economists also warned, such as his proposal to create a 10% across-the-board tariff on all imports to deporting immigrants. The tariff plan would add $1,700 in annual costs for the typical U.S. household, essentially acting as an inflationary tax, according to experts at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.}}</ref>
== Nobel Memorial Prize and lecture == On October 10, 2011, Sims and Thomas J. Sargent were awarded the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences. The award cited their "empirical research on cause and effect in the macroeconomy".<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economics/laureates/2011/ |title=The Prize in Economic Sciences 2011 |publisher=Nobelprize.org |date=2008-12-10 |access-date=2011-10-10}}</ref> His Nobel lecture, titled "Statistical Modeling of Monetary Policy and its Effects" was delivered on December 8, 2011.<ref>{{cite web | title=The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2011 | website=NobelPrize.org | date=2011-12-08 | url=https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/2011/sims/lecture/ | access-date=2024-02-24}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://sims.princeton.edu/yftp/Nobel/NobelLect.pdf|title=Statistical Modeling of Monetary Policy and its Effects, Nobel lecture|url-status=dead|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230308042034/http://sims.princeton.edu/yftp/Nobel/NobelLect.pdf|archive-date=2023-03-08}}</ref>
Translating his work into everyday language, Sims said it provided a technique to assess the direction of causality in central bank monetary policy. It confirmed the theories of monetarists like Milton Friedman that shifts in the money supply affect inflation. However, it also showed that causality went both ways. Variables like interest rates and inflation also led to changes in the money supply.<ref name="sommer">{{cite news |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/04/business/nobel-winners-in-economics-the-reluctant-celebrities.html |title=Good Morning. You're Nobel Laureates |first=Jeff |last=Sommer |newspaper=New York Times |date=December 3, 2011 }}</ref>
== Further reading == * {{Cite journal|last=Sims|first=Christopher|date=1980|title=Macroeconomics and reality|journal=Econometrica|volume=48|issue=1|pages=1–48|jstor=1912017|url=http://www.ekonometria.wne.uw.edu.pl/uploads/Main/macroeconomics_and_reality.pdf|doi=10.2307/1912017|citeseerx=10.1.1.163.5425}} * Sargan, J.D. (1961). The maximum likelihood estimation of economic relationships with autoregressive residuals. Econometrica, 29, 414–426.
== References == {{reflist|2}}
== External links == {{commons category|Christopher A. Sims}} * {{Nobelprize}} * [https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/2011/sims/biographical/ Sims's biography on the official website of the Nobel Prize] * [https://www.princeton.edu/~sims Sims's homepage on the Princeton University website] * {{Google Scholar id|uXNOHdAAAAAJ}} * {{cite web|title=Christopher A. Sims|url=https://www.jstor.org/action/doBasicSearch?Query=au%3A%22Christopher+A.+Sims%22|publisher=JSTOR}}
{{s-start}} {{s-ach|aw}} {{s-bef | before = Peter A. Diamond | before2 = Dale T. Mortensen | before3 = Christopher A. Pissarides }} {{s-ttl | title = Laureate of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics | years = 2011 | alongside = Thomas J. Sargent }} {{s-aft | after = Alvin E. Roth | after2 = Lloyd S. Shapley }} {{s-aca}} {{s-bef | before = Orley Ashenfelter}} {{s-ttl | title = President of the American Economic Association | years = 2012– 2013 }} {{s-aft | after = Claudia Goldin }} {{s-end}}
{{Nobel laureates in economics 2001-2025|state=expanded}} {{2011 Nobel Prize winners}} {{Presidents of the Econometric Society}} {{Presidents of the American Economic Association}} {{Authority control}}
{{DEFAULTSORT:Sims, Christopher A.}} Category:1942 births Category:2026 deaths Category:American Nobel laureates Category:American people of Estonian-Jewish descent Category:American statisticians Category:Bayesian econometricians Category:Bayesian statisticians Category:Time series econometricians Category:Fellows of the American Statistical Association Category:Fellows of the Econometric Society Category:Fellows of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences Category:Harvard University alumni Category:Nobel laureates in Economics Category:Presidents of the Econometric Society Category:Princeton University faculty Category:Harvard University faculty Category:University of Minnesota faculty Category:Yale University faculty Category:Members of the United States National Academy of Sciences Category:20th-century American writers Category:20th-century American economists Category:21st-century American economists Category:Presidents of the American Economic Association Category:National Bureau of Economic Research Category:Members of the American Philosophical Society Category:Harvard University Department of Economics faculty Category:American people of English descent