Baruch Fischhoff

{{short description|American academic (born 1946)}} {{Use mdy dates|date=October 2015}} {{Infobox scientist | name = Baruch Fischhoff | image = Baruch Fischhoff.png | image_size = 245px | birth_date = {{birth date |1946|04|21}} | birth_place = Detroit, Michigan, U.S. | field = Decision theory, risk | workplaces = {{ubl|Decision Research|Carnegie Mellon University|Stockholm University|National Academy of Sciences|National Academy of Medicine}} | alma_mater = {{ubl|The Hebrew University of Jerusalem |Wayne State University}} | known_for = {{ubl|Judgment and decision making|Risk analysis|Communication sciences}} | doctoral_students = {{ubl|Cynthia Atman|Shane Frederick|Donna Riley}} }} '''Baruch Fischhoff''' (born April 21, 1946, Detroit, Michigan) is an American academic who is the Howard Heinz University Professor in the Carnegie Mellon Institute for Strategy and Technology and the Department of Engineering and Public Policy at Carnegie Mellon University. He is an elected member of the (US) National Academy of Sciences<ref>https://www.nasonline.org/directory-entry/baruch-fischhoff-vifwyc/</ref> and National Academy of Medicine. His research focuses on judgment and decision making, including risk perception and risk analysis. He has authored numerous academic books and articles. Fischhoff completed his graduate education at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem under the supervision of Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky.<ref name='klein'>Klein, Olivier, Peter Hegarty, and Baruch Fischhoff. [https://www.cmu.edu/epp/people/faculty/research/Memory%20Studies%20interview.pdf "Hindsight 40 years on: An interview with Baruch Fischhoff"]. ''Memory Studies''. 2017, Vol. 10(3) 249–260</ref>

He has been honored with a 'Distinguished Achievement Award' by the Society for Risk Analysis,<ref>Society for Risk Analysis (1991). [http://www.sra.org/awards "Distinguished Achievement Award".] Society for Risk Analysis. Retrieved October 2, 2015.</ref> a Distinguished Scientific Award for an Early Career Contribution to Psychology by the American Psychological Association, an Andrew Carnegie Fellowship, the William Procter Prize for Scientific Achievement,<ref>[https://www.cmu.edu/epp/news/2021/fischhoff-awarded-sigma-xi-william-procter-prize-for-scientific-achievement.html Fischhoff awarded Sigma Xi William Procter Prize for Scientific Achievement]</ref> and a Doctorate of Humanities, honoris causa, by Lund University. He has chaired committees of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, the National Academy of Sciences, and the Environmental Protection Agency. He is a past president of the Society for Risk Analysis<ref>Society for Risk Analysis (2004–2005). [http://www.sra.org/past-officers-and-councilors "Past Officers and Councilors".] Society for Risk Analysis. Retrieved October 2, 2015.</ref> and Society for Judgment and Decision Making.<ref>Society for Judgment and Decision Making (1990–1991). [http://www.sjdm.org/history.html#officers "SJDM Presidents".] Judgment and Decision Making. Retrieved October 2, 2015.</ref> He is a fellow of the American Psychological Association, Association for Psychological Science, Society of Experimental Psychologists, American Association for the Advancement of Science, and Society for Risk Analysis. He has received Carnegie Mellon University’s Ryan Award for Meritorious Teaching and College of Engineering Outstanding Mentoring Award.

His research includes work on hindsight bias,<ref>Fischhoff, B. (1975). Hindsight foresight: The effect of outcome knowledge on judgment under uncertainty. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 1(3), 288-299. https://doi.org/10.1037/0096-1523.1.3.288 Fischhoff, B. (2025). Fifty years of hindsight bias research. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 51(2),143-150. https://doi.org/10.1037/xhp0001232</ref> calibration of probability judgments<ref>Lichtenstein, S. & Fischhoff, B. (1977). Do those who know more also know more about how much they know? The calibration of probability judgments. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 20, 159-183. https://doi.org/10.1016/0030-5073(77)90001-0</ref><ref> Lichtenstein, S. & Fischhoff, B. (1980). Training for calibration. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 26, 149-171. https://doi.org/10.1016/0030-5073(80)90052-5</ref> (over/underconfidence), preference elicitation (and construction),<ref>Fischhoff, B. (1991). Value elicitation: Is there anything in there? American Psychologist, 46(8), 835-847. https://doi.org/10.1037/0003-066X.46.8.835</ref><ref> Fischhoff, B., Welch, N., & Frederick, S. (1999). Construal processes in preference elicitation. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 19, 139-164. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1007823326511</ref> adolescent decision making,<ref>Quadrel, M.J., Fischhoff, B., & Davis, W. (1993). Adolescent (in)vulnerability. American Psychologist, 48, 102-116. https://doi.org/10.1037/0003-066X.48.2.102</ref><ref>Fischhoff, B. (2008). Assessing adolescent decision-making competence. Developmental Review, 28(1), 12-28. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.dr.2007.08.001</ref> individual differences in decision-making competence,<ref>Bruine de Bruin, W., Parker, A., & Fischhoff, B. (2007). Individual differences in adult decision-making competence (A-DMC). Journal of Personality and Social Psychology. 92, 938-956. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.92.5.93</ref><ref>Parker, A.M., Bruine de Bruin, W., Fischhoff, B., & Weller, J. (2018). Robustness of decision-making competence: Evidence from two measures and an 11-year longitudinal study. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 31, 380-391. https://doi.org/10.1002/bdm.2059</ref> climate and energy,<ref>Wong-Parodi, G., Krishnamurti, T., Davis, A.L., Schwartz, D., & Fischhoff, B. (2016). Integrating social science in climate and energy solutions: A decision science approach. Nature Climate Change, 6, 563-569. https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE2917</ref><ref>Fischhoff, B. (2021). Making behavioral science integral to climate science and action. Behavioural Public Policy, 5(4) 439-453. https://www.doi.org/10.1017/bpp.2020.38</ref> risk analysis,<ref>Fischhoff, B. (2015). The realities of risk-cost-benefit analysis. Science, 350(6260), 527. https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aaa6516 </ref> expert judgment,<ref>Henrion, M. & Fischhoff, B. (1986). Assessing uncertainty in physical constants. American Journal of Physics, 54, 791-798. https://doi.org/10.1119/1.14447</ref><ref> Fischhoff, B., & Davis, A.L. (2014). Communicating scientific uncertainty. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111 (Supplement 4), 13664-13671. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.131750411</ref> pandemic disease,<ref>Fischhoff, B., Bruine de Bruin, W., Guvenc, U., Caruso, D., & Brilliant, L. (2006). Analyzing disaster risks and plans: An avian flu example. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty. 33, 133-151. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-006-0175-8</ref><ref>Fischhoff, B. (2021). The COVID communication breakdown. Foreign Affairs. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2021-10-04/covid-communication-breakdown</ref> medicine,<ref>Fischhoff, B. (2017). Breaking ground for psychological science: The U.S. Food and Drug Administration. American Psychologist, 72(2). 118-125. https://doi.org/10.1037/a0040438</ref><ref>Mohan, D., Fischhoff, B., Angus, D.C., Rosengart, M.R., Wallace, D.J., Yealy, D.M., Farris, C., Chang, C.-C.H., Kerti, S., & Barnato, A.E. (2018). Serious video games may improve physicians’ heuristics in trauma triage. PNAS, 115(37), 9204-9209. https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.1805450115</ref> usability of AI,<ref>Arnold, J., Davis, A.L., Fischhoff, B., Yecies, E., Grace, J.O., Klobuka, A., Hand, M.O., Mohan, D., & Hanmer, J.Z. (2019). Comparing the predictive ability of a commercial artificial intelligence early warning system with physician judgment for clinical deterioration in hospitalized general internal medicine patients, a prospective observational study. BMJ Open, 9, e032187. doi:10.1136/bmjopen-2019-03218 https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/bmjopen/9/10/e032187</ref><ref>nning, R., Fischhoff, B., & Davis, A.L. (2024). When do humans heed AI agents’ advice? When should they? Human Factors. 66(7), 1914-1927. https://doi.org/10.1177/00187208231190459</ref> risk perception and communication,<ref>Fischhoff, B. (2011). Communicating the risks of terrorism (and anything else). American Psychologist, 66, 520-531. https://doi.org/10.1037/a0024570</ref><ref>Woloshin, S., Yang, Y., & Fischhoff, B. (2023). Communicating health information with visual displays. Nature Medicine, 29, 1085-1091. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-023-02328-1</ref> science communication,<ref>Fischhoff, B. (2013). The sciences of science communication. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 110 (Supplement 3), 14033-14039. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1213273110.</ref><ref>Fischhoff, B. (2019). Evaluating science communication. PNAS, 116(16), 7670-7675. www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1805863115 13664-13671. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.131750411</ref> security,<ref>Fischhoff, B., Atran, S., & Fischhoff, N. (2007). Counting casualties: A framework for respectful, useful records. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 34, 1-19. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-006-9001-6</ref> and interdisciplinary collaboration.<ref>Fischhoff, B. (2024). Heuristic assumptions. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty. (special issue tribute to Daniel Kahneman). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-024-09437-3</ref><ref>Fischhoff, B. (2025). Bounded disciplines and unbounded problems (The Clarendon Lectures in Management). Oxford: Oxford University Press. https://academic.oup.com/book/59320</ref>

==Books== *Fischhoff, B. (2025). [https://academic.oup.com/book/59320 Bounded disciplines and unbounded problems] (The Clarendon Lectures in Management). Oxford: Oxford University Press. *Fischhoff, B. (in press). [https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/798083/decisions-by-baruch-fischhoff/ Decisions: Studying and supporting people making hard decisions]. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. *Fischhoff, B., & Kadvany, J. (2011). [https://academic.oup.com/book/454 Risk: A very short introduction]. Oxford: Oxford University Press. *Fischhoff, B., Lichtenstein, S., Slovic, P., Derby, S. L. & Keeney, R. L. (1981). [https://www.cambridge.org/gb/universitypress/subjects/psychology/applied-psychology/acceptable-risk Acceptable risk]. New York: Cambridge University Press. *Fischhoff, B., Kotovsky, K., Tuma, H. & Bielak, J. (eds.) (1993). [https://www.cmu.edu/epp/files/a-two-state-solution-in-the-middle-east-fischhoff.pdf A two-state solution in the Middle East: Prospects & possibilities]. Pittsburgh: Carnegie Mellon University Press. *Morgan, M.G., Fischhoff, B., Bostrom, A., & Atman, C. (2001). [https://www.cambridge.org/us/universitypress/subjects/psychology/cognition/risk-communication-mental-models-approach Risk communication: A mental models approach]. New York: Cambridge University Press. *Fischhoff, B., Brewer, N., & Downs, J.S. (eds.). (2011). [https://www.fda.gov/about-fda/reports/communicating-risks-and-benefits-evidence-based-users-guide Communicating risks and benefits: An evidence-based user’s guide]. Washington, DC: Food and Drug Administration. *Fischhoff, B., & Chauvin, C. (eds.). (2011). [http://www.nap.edu/catalog/13062/ Intelligence analysis: Behavioral and social science foundations]. Washington, DC: National Academy Press. *Fischhoff, B., & Manski, C. (eds.). (1999). [https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-94-017-1406-8 The elicitation of preferences]. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 19(1-3). *Seybolt, T., Aronson, J., & Fischhoff, B. (eds.). (2013). [https://global.oup.com/academic/product/counting-civilian-casualties-9780199977314?cc=us&lang=en& Counting civilian casualties: An introduction to recording and estimating nonmilitary deaths in conflict]. Oxford: Oxford University Press. *Fischhoff, B. (2011). [https://www.routledge.com/Judgment-and-Decision-Making/Fischhoff/p/book/9781849714457 Judgment and decision making]. Oxford: Routledge/Earthscan. *Fischhoff, B. (2011). [https://www.taylorfrancis.com/books/edit/10.4324/9780203140710/risk-analysis-human-behavior-baruch-fischhoff Risk analysis and behavioral research]. Oxford: Routledge/Earthscan.

==References== {{reflist}}

== External links == *[https://epp.engineering.cmu.edu/directory/bios/fischhoff-baruch.html Carnegie Mellon faculty page]

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{{DEFAULTSORT:Fischhoff, Baruch}} Category:Hebrew University of Jerusalem alumni Category:Wayne State University alumni Category:Carnegie Mellon University faculty Category:Living people Category:1946 births Category:Members of the National Academy of Medicine