{{short description|Advocacy for Alberta seceding from Canada}} {{Use mdy dates|date=January 2026}} [[File:Alberta in Canada 2.svg|thumb|[[Alberta]] in Canada]]
'''Alberta separatism''', also known as the '''Alberta sovereignty movement''', consists of a series of 20th- and 21st-century movements advocating the [[secession]] of the province of [[Alberta]] from [[Canada]], with some groups also supporting the creation of a sovereign union with the other provinces of [[Western Canada]], and other groups supporting Alberta joining the [[United States]].
The main issues driving separatist sentiment have been the power disparity relative to [[Ottawa]] and other [[western provinces]]; a sense of distinctiveness with regard to Alberta's [[Culture of Alberta|cultural]] and [[Politics of Alberta|political identity]];{{citation needed|date=February 2026}} and Canadian economic policy, particularly as it pertains to [[History of the Petroleum industry in Alberta|Alberta's petroleum industry]] and equalization payments.
The concept of separation has gained considerable media attention in the aftermath of the [[2025 Canadian federal election|2025 federal election]]. In 2025, the Alberta Forever Canada citizen initiative opposing Alberta's separation from Canada was launched and verified by [[Elections Alberta]] pending its surpassing the required amount of signatures.<ref name="CBCNews_2025-12-01" /> In early 2026, Elections Alberta approved a petition which, pending legal challenges, intends to lead to a separation referendum.<ref>{{cite news |last=Zhao |first=Emma |date=22 December 2025 |title=Proposed referendum question on separation from Canada approved by Elections Alberta |url=https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/alberta-referendum-question-approved-9.7025892 |work=[[CBC News]] |access-date=4 April 2026}}</ref><ref>{{cite news| title=Why an Alberta separation vote in 2026 is looking more likely |first=Sean |last=Amato |work=Global News | date=December 16, 2025 | url=https://edmonton.citynews.ca/2025/12/16/alberta-separatists-new-petition-referendum-vote/ | access-date=December 23, 2025 | archive-date=December 20, 2025 | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20251220154416/https://edmonton.citynews.ca/2025/12/16/alberta-separatists-new-petition-referendum-vote/ | url-status=live }}</ref><ref>{{cite news| title='Independent state?' Proposed referendum question approved on Alberta separation | date=December 23, 2025 | url=https://www.ctvnews.ca/edmonton/article/proposed-referendum-question-approved-on-alberta-separation/ |work=[[CTV News]] |agency=[[The Canadian Press]] | access-date=December 23, 2025 | archive-date=December 23, 2025 | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20251223220652/https://www.ctvnews.ca/edmonton/article/proposed-referendum-question-approved-on-alberta-separation/ | url-status=live }}</ref><ref>{{Cite news|url=https://globalnews.ca/news/11766792/alberta-separation-question-court/|title=Alberta separatism question to head back to court |work=Global News |first=Erik |last=Bay |date=April 6, 2026}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.ctvnews.ca/calgary/article/alberta-independence-organizers-claim-signature-threshold-met-according-to-reports/|title=Alberta independence organizers claim signature threshold met|first1=Alesia |last1=Fieldberg |first2= Sneha|last2=Kainth|date=April 8, 2026|website=CTVNews}}</ref>
A legal challenge to the proposed referendum on separation from Canada was addressed by Alberta Justice Shaina Leonard who on 13 May 2026 ruled in favour of several [[First Nations in Alberta|First Nations]] whose lawyers argued that Alberta's referendum process involving its use for possible separation of Alberta from Canada has been [[Constitution of Canada|unconstitutional]] because First Nations were not consulted and that separation under these circumstances would violate treaty rights.<ref name="JackFarrell_2026-05-13">{{cite news|last1=Farrell |first1=Jack |title=Judge quashes Alberta separation petition in favour of First Nations |url=https://globalnews.ca/news/11848163/alberta-judge-quashes-separation-petition-in-favour-of-first-nations/ |date=May 13, 2026 |agency=[[The Canadian Press]]|website=Global News |access-date=15 May 2026}}</ref> This issue of treaty rights has arisen because Alberta is within the territories of several of the [[Numbered Treaties]] between First Nations and the [[monarchy of Canada]] agreed to prior to the creation of Alberta as a province. On 21 May 2026, [[Premier of Alberta|Alberta Premier]] [[Danielle Smith]] responded to the ruling by announcing that Alberta will hold a referendum on whether to trigger the process for holding a binding referendum on Alberta separating from Canada.<ref name="Bellefontaine">{{cite news|last=Bellefontaine|first=Michelle|url=https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/alberta-separation-referendum-televised-address-9.7208162|title=Alberta to hold fall referendum on whether to have binding referendum on separating from Canada|work=[[CBC News]] |date=May 21, 2026}}</ref>
Alberta's secession would be subject to the federal [[Clarity Act]] and the Supreme Court's ruling in [[Reference re Secession of Quebec]], both of which require a clear referendum result followed by constitutional negotiations — not unilateral separation.<ref name="lexum_SCC_1998" /><ref name="Gilan_2023" /> Recent legal challenges have also emphasized that any separation process must comply with the [[Constitution of Canada]] and uphold the treaty and constitutional rights of Indigenous peoples and other minorities.<ref name="JackFarrell_2026-05-13" />
==History==
===1940s to 1970s: discovery of oil after World War II, monopolies, Alberta gas, 1970s oil crises===
The discovery of vast reserves of oil in the 1940s ushered in a twenty-year period of intense exploration, new discoveries, and rapid expansion of Alberta's oil industry.<ref name="auto">{{cite web |title=Oil Developments After Leduc |url=http://history.alberta.ca/energyheritage/oil/the-leduc-era-1947-to-1970s/oil-developments-after-leduc/banner-years-of-oil-discovery-1949-1953.aspx |website=history.alberta.ca |publisher=Alberta Culture and Tourism}}</ref> Alberta, however, was still "heavily rural and bitter with western grievance. Freight rates and protectionism made economic diversification in the prairies all but impossible. It was said to be cheaper to send cows and grain to be slaughtered in Ontario than it was to ship meat."<ref name="National Post">{{cite news |last1=Gerson |first1=Jen |title=A legacy rich as oil: Ex-Alberta premier Peter Lougheed's ideas imprinted on party still in power 41 years later |url=https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/a-legacy-rich-as-oil-ex-alberta-premier-peter-lougheeds-ideas-imprinted-on-party-still-in-power-41-years-later |access-date=January 30, 2022 |work=National Post |date=September 14, 2012}}</ref>
According to political scientists David Elton and Roger Gibbins, a 1969 provincial poll found that only 5 per cent of those polled "expressed interest in even discussing the merits of separation."<ref name=":0" />
In the 1970s, the world experienced two major oil crises. The first, the [[1973 oil crisis]], coincided with the [[Yom-Kippur War]]: the decision by the US to support Israel in the conflict caused retaliation by [[Egypt]] and [[Syria]], enacting an [[oil embargo]] that resulted in oil prices spiking in North America.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.history.alberta.ca/energyheritage/oil/energy-crises-political-debates-and-environmental-concerns-1970s-1980s/the-energy-crises-1973-and-1978-79.aspx|title=The Energy Crises: 1973 and 1978–79 – Conventional Oil – Alberta's Energy Heritage|website=www.history.alberta.ca|access-date=January 30, 2019|archive-date=May 4, 2019|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190504002146/http://www.history.alberta.ca/energyheritage/oil/energy-crises-political-debates-and-environmental-concerns-1970s-1980s/the-energy-crises-1973-and-1978-79.aspx|url-status=live}}</ref> The second oil crisis came [[1979 oil crisis|in 1979]], in the wake of the [[Iranian Revolution]].<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.history.alberta.ca/energyheritage/oil/energy-crises-political-debates-and-environmental-concerns-1970s-1980s/the-energy-crises-1973-and-1978-79.aspx#page-3|title=The Energy Crises: 1973 and 1978–79 – Conventional Oil – Alberta's Energy Heritage|website=www.history.alberta.ca|access-date=January 30, 2019|archive-date=May 4, 2019|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190504002146/http://www.history.alberta.ca/energyheritage/oil/energy-crises-political-debates-and-environmental-concerns-1970s-1980s/the-energy-crises-1973-and-1978-79.aspx#page-3|url-status=live}}</ref> Some members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries ([[OPEC]]) and a few similarly minded oil-rich nations had ceased all oil exports to the United States and countries that supported Israel. In both cases, the price of oil sold to North America spiked and service stations ran out of fuel; long lines were evident at [[gas stations]] across North America.
The Alberta government and the Canadian federal government responded politically to address oil reserves and conservation of petroleum resources. In 1971, the Alberta government, headed by [[Harry Strom]], created an environmental ministry, the first of its kind, with a mandate to manage and conserve Alberta's natural resources.<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.history.alberta.ca/energyheritage/oil/energy-crises-political-debates-and-environmental-concerns-1970s-1980s/the-energy-crises-1973-and-1978-79.aspx#page-2 |title=The Energy Crises: 1973 and 1978–79 – Conventional Oil – Alberta's Energy Heritage |website=www.history.alberta.ca |access-date=January 30, 2019 |archive-date=May 4, 2019 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190504002146/http://www.history.alberta.ca/energyheritage/oil/energy-crises-political-debates-and-environmental-concerns-1970s-1980s/the-energy-crises-1973-and-1978-79.aspx#page-2 |url-status=live }}</ref> Federally, in 1974, the Office of Energy Conservation was created. Conflict arose between Alberta and Canada after the 1973 crisis, over the management and distribution of Alberta's oil resources, and financial wealth. Nevertheless, support for independence remained a fringe phenomenon. A 1974 survey conducted in Calgary found less than four per cent of respondents "expressed even the most cautious support for separatism"; three years later, 1977 survey by the ''[[Calgary Herald]]'' found that only 2.7 per cent of Albertans supported independence.<ref name=":0" />
=== 1980-1984: growth of western alienation === [[File:Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau 1975 (UPI press photo) (cropped).jpg|thumb|[[Prime Minister of Canada|Canadian Prime Minister]] [[Pierre Trudeau]] and his federal government's [[National Energy Program]] (NEP) have been regarded as causing a surge of Alberta separatism in the early 1980s.]] [[File:Peter_Lougheed_-_Premier_of_Alberta_-_1983.jpg|thumb|[[Premier of Alberta|Alberta Premier]] [[Peter Lougheed]] and his government disputed with the Trudeau federal government over the NEP in the 1980s.]] [[File:Oil Prices Since 1861.svg|thumb|400px|Long-term oil prices, 1861–2007 (top line adjusted for inflation)]]
Support for Alberta separatism increased after [[Pierre Trudeau]] returned as prime minister following the [[1980 Canadian federal election|1980 federal election]]. A 1981 poll by the [[Canada West Foundation]] found that 49 percent of respondents agreed that "Western Canadians get so few benefits from being part of Canada that they might as well go it on their own."<ref name=":0">{{cite web |last1=Wagner |first1=Michael |date=July 1, 2020 |title=WAGNER: How Pierre Trudeau created the Alberta independence movement, and his son made it mainstream |url=http://dev.westernstandardonline.com/2020/07/wagner-how-pierre-trudeau-created-the-alberta-independence-movement-and-his-son-made-it-mainstream/ |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220111174104/https://dev.westernstandardonline.com/2020/07/wagner-how-pierre-trudeau-created-the-alberta-independence-movement-and-his-son-made-it-mainstream/ |archive-date=January 11, 2022 |access-date=January 11, 2022 |website=The Western Standard |language=en-CA}}</ref>
Alberta had experienced rapid economic growth in the oil sector because of high oil prices. In October 1980, the Trudeau government implemented the [[National Energy Program]] (NEP). The government argued that Canadian ownership and control of natural resources were important to national energy security. Trudeau also argued that Canada's energy policy had become divisive and required greater fairness in revenue sharing.<ref name="Tupper_pg215-17">{{cite book |last=Tupper |first=Allan |editor=Bradford J. Rennie |title=Alberta Premiers of the Twentieth Century |year=2004 |publisher=Canadian Plains Research Center, University of Regina |location=[[Regina, Saskatchewan]] |isbn=978-0-88977-151-2 |chapter=Peter Lougheed |url=https://archive.org/details/albertapremierso0000unse |url-access=registration |pages=215–217}}</ref> The program expanded domestic [[price controls]], included revenue-sharing measures, incentives for oil exploration on federally owned lands,<ref name="Tupper_pg215-17"/> and tax on oil and gas revenues but excluded the oil sands.<ref name="boereport.com">{{cite web |url=https://boereport.com/2015/10/06/remember-when-albertas-economy-and-trudeau-the-elder/ |title=Remember when? Alberta's economy under Trudeau (Sr.) |first=James |last=Rose |date=October 6, 2015 |website=BOE Report |access-date=January 30, 2019 |archive-date=September 19, 2018 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180919112819/https://boereport.com/2015/10/06/remember-when-albertas-economy-and-trudeau-the-elder/ |url-status=live }}</ref> Alberta Premier [[Peter Lougheed]] opposed these aspects of the program. He challenged the program in court and criticized it publicly, including in a televised address in which he warned that the NEP would bring more "Ottawa" into Alberta's affairs.<ref name="Tupper_pg215-17"/>
Lougheed threatened to reduce Alberta's oil and gas production if the federal government increased taxes on the industry. Reduced Alberta production would have required Central Canadian refineries and businesses to purchase foreign oil, which the federal government would have subsidized. Lougheed argued that the federal government could not afford that subsidy while running a $13.7 billion deficit in 1980.<ref name="PerryCraig_pg534-535">{{cite book |last1=Perry |first1=Sandra E. |last2=Craig |first2=Jessica J. |title=The Mantle of Leadership: Premiers of the Northwest Territories and Alberta |year=2006 |publisher=Legislative Assembly of Alberta |location=[[Edmonton]], [[Alberta]] |isbn=0-9689217-2-8 |url-access=registration|url=https://archive.org/details/centennialseries02perr |pages=534–535}}</ref> He announced a 60,000-barrel reduction in Alberta's crude oil production over nine months beginning in April 1981. He also suspended two oil sands projects.<ref name="Tupper_pg215-17"/><ref name="PerryCraig_pg534-535" /><ref>{{cite book |last1=Wood |first1=David G. |title=The Lougheed legacy |date=1985 |publisher=Key Porter Books |location=Toronto |isbn=978-0-919493-48-3 |url=https://archive.org/details/lougheedlegacy0000wood |url-access=registration |oclc=910363674 |page=175}}</ref> In 1981, the ''Oil Accord'' removed parts of the NEP that Alberta opposed.<ref name="PerryCraig_pg534-535" /> Many Albertans viewed the NEP as federal intrusion into provincial affairs.<ref name="McKenzie_1981">{{citation |editor-last=McKenzie |editor-first=Helen |title=Current Issues System: Western Alienation in Canada |location=Ottawa |work=Research Branch, Library of Parliament, Government of Canada |year=1981}}</ref> Edmonton economist Alan Scarfe argued that many people in Western Canada, especially Alberta, viewed the NEP as a policy that benefited eastern provinces at Alberta's expense.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Scarfe |first1=Brian L. |title=The Federal Budget and Energy Program, October 28th, 1980: A Review |journal=Canadian Public Policy |date=1981 |volume=7 |issue=1 |pages=1–14 |doi=10.2307/3549850 |jstor=3549850 |url=https://www.jstor.org/stable/3549850 |access-date=January 30, 2022 |issn=0317-0861 |url-access=subscription |archive-date=January 30, 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220130232808/https://www.jstor.org/stable/3549850 |url-status=live }}</ref>
Shortly after the NEP's implementation, the [[1980s oil glut]] began. Energy prices fell sharply because of declining demand.<ref>{{cite book |last1=Wood |first1=David G. |title=The Lougheed legacy |date=1985 |publisher=Key Porter Books |location=Toronto |isbn=978-0-919493-48-3 |url=https://archive.org/details/lougheedlegacy0000wood |url-access=registration |oclc=910363674 |page=182}}</ref> Lower prices contributed to a recession in Alberta, the abandonment of oil and gas projects, and high unemployment. Lower international prices also led Eastern Canada to purchase foreign oil, undermining the NEP's goal of self-sufficiency.
The NEP has been blamed for an infrastructure deficit, and reduced growth of the [[Alberta Heritage Savings Trust Fund]], which was meant to save as much of the earnings during high oil prices to act as a "rainy day" cushion if oil prices collapsed because of the cyclical nature of the oil and gas industry.<ref name="National Post" /> A popular slogan that appeared on [[bumper stickers]] was "Let the Eastern bastards freeze in the dark." Other bumpers stated "I'd rather push this thing a mile than buy gas from [[Petro-Canada|PetroCan]]."<ref name="abheritage">{{citation |last=Vicente |first=Mary Elizabeth |title=The National Energy Program |work=Canada's Digital Collections. Heritage Community Foundation |date=January 2005 |url=http://www.abheritage.ca/abpolitics/events/issues_nep.html |access-date=January 30, 2022 |archive-date=April 24, 2005 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20050424231001/http://www.abheritage.ca/abpolitics/events/issues_nep.html |url-status=live }}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url= https://parli.ca/let-the-eastern-bastards-freeze-in-the-dark/|title= Let the eastern bastards freeze in the dark|work= The Dictionary of Canadian Politics|publisher= Parli|year= 2021|access-date= April 2, 2021|archive-date= April 17, 2021|archive-url= https://web.archive.org/web/20210417140705/https://parli.ca/let-the-eastern-bastards-freeze-in-the-dark/|url-status= live}}</ref>
In October 1980, when Trudeau dismissed the threat of Alberta separatism as a bargaining tool from Western Canadians premiers, Lougheed agreed with him, telling [[Don Newman (broadcaster)|Don Newman]] that no one in Western Canada wants to separate and they are "a part of the mainstream of Canadian life".<ref>{{Cite web |title=In the '70s and '80s, some wanted Alberta to separate from Canada |url=https://www.cbc.ca/archives/alberta-separation-talk-1980-1.5332287 |date=October 24, 2019 |work=CBC Archives |access-date=March 1, 2026 |archive-date=November 1, 2019 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20191101013520/https://www.cbc.ca/archives/alberta-separation-talk-1980-1.5332287 |url-status=live }}</ref> However, some critics argued that Lougheed ran a hostile and polarizing campaign against federal oil and gas policy and forced Albertans to choose between provincial and national citizenship.<ref name="Tupper_pg215-17"/> Hostility toward the federal government contributed to Alberta separatism, which became more visible when separatist [[Gordon Kesler]] was elected to the Legislative Assembly of Alberta in a 1982 by-election.<ref name="Tupper_pg215-17"/> British Columbia lawyer [[Doug Christie (lawyer)|Doug Christie]] formed the [[Western Canada Concept]] to promote western separatism. The party drew 2,700 people to a speech at the Jubilee Auditorium in Edmonton.<ref>{{cite news |last1=Roquette |first1=Tiphanie |title=Programme énergétique national: l'est l'a oublié, l'ouest le hait toujours |trans-title=National energy program: the east has forgotten it, the west still hates it |url=https://ici.radio-canada.ca/recit-numerique/1062/programme-national-energie-politique-trudeau-lougheed-40-ans |access-date=February 5, 2022 |publisher=CBC Radio-Canada |date=November 20, 2020 |archive-date=February 5, 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220205070713/https://ici.radio-canada.ca/recit-numerique/1062/programme-national-energie-politique-trudeau-lougheed-40-ans |url-status=live }}</ref> In the [[1982 Alberta general election|1982 provincial election]], the Western Canada Concept received 111,131 votes (11.8 percent of the total vote), but did not elect any members.<ref>{{cite book |author1=Office of the Chief Electoral Officer |author2=Legislative Assembly Office |author2-link=Legislative Assembly of Alberta |authorlink1=Elections Alberta |title=A Century of Democracy: Elections of the Legislative Assembly of Alberta, 1905–2005 |date=2006 |publisher=Legislative Assembly of Alberta |series=The Centennial Series |location=Edmonton |isbn=0-9689217-8-7 |url=https://archive.org/details/centennialseries04perr/mode/2up |accessdate=May 25, 2020 |pages=25–26}}</ref>
=== 1984 to mid 2010s: Decline of separatism and rise of the Reform and Conservative Parties ===
[[File:Supreme court of Canada in summer.jpg|thumb|In 1997, the [[Supreme Court of Canada]] delivered unanimous reasons in '''[[Reference Re Secession of Quebec]]'' regarding the legality, under both Canadian and international law, of a unilateral [[secession]] of Quebec from Canada.]]
Separatism and the Western Canada Concept's popularity declined after [[Brian Mulroney]] led the [[Progressive Conservative Party of Canada|Progressive Conservative Party]] to victory in the [[1984 Canadian federal election|1984 federal election]]. Mulroney agreed to the ''Western Accord on Energy'', which phased out the NEP over three years.<ref name="PerryCraig_pg534-535" /> However, by the end of Mulroney's time in office, many Albertans viewed his government as neglectful of Western Canada.<ref>{{Cite news |last=Nossal |first=Kim Richard |date=June 1, 2003 |title=The Mulroney Years: Transformation and Tumult |url=https://policyoptions.irpp.org/magazines/the-best-pms-in-the-past-50-years/the-mulroney-years-transformation-and-tumult/ |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170502072705/https://policyoptions.irpp.org/magazines/the-best-pms-in-the-past-50-years/the-mulroney-years-transformation-and-tumult/ |archive-date=May 2, 2017 |access-date=November 8, 2023 |work=[[Policy Options]]}}</ref>
Two attempts at separatist political parties occurred in the early 2000s. The [[Alberta Independence Party]] was founded prior to the [[2001 Alberta general election]], but was unable to gather sufficient signatures to register as a political party.<ref>{{cite news|last1=MacEachern |first1=Meagan |date=April 1, 2019 |title=Another name joins the ballot |url=https://www.lakelandtoday.ca/beyond-local/another-name-joins-the-ballot-1910929 |access-date=April 12, 2024 |website=Lakeland Today |publisher=[[Great West Media]] |archive-date=March 2, 2021 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210302174447/https://www.lakelandtoday.ca/beyond-local/another-name-joins-the-ballot-1910929 |url-status=live }}</ref> In the election it unsuccessfully ran 14 of its supporters as independent candidates, receiving approximately 7,500 votes.<ref name="TorontoStar_2019-03-04">{{cite news|date=March 4, 2019 |title=New Alberta separatist party raises questions about splintering of conservative voters |url=https://www.thestar.com/edmonton/2019/03/04/new-alberta-separatist-party-raises-questions-about-splintering-of-conservative-voters.html |website=[[Toronto Star]] |access-date=September 18, 2025 |archive-date=June 3, 2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230603132149/https://www.thestar.com/edmonton/2019/03/04/new-alberta-separatist-party-raises-questions-about-splintering-of-conservative-voters.html |url-status=live }}</ref><ref>{{cite news|date=January 28, 2010 |title=Wildrose less than fresh |url=https://www.reddeeradvocate.com/opinion/wildrose-less-than-fresh-7034065 |access-date=July 11, 2025 |website=[[Red Deer Advocate]] |publisher=[[Black Press Media]] }}{{Dead link|date=March 2026 |bot=InternetArchiveBot }}</ref> In the [[2004 Alberta general election|2004 election]], the [[Separation Party of Alberta]] nominated 12 candidates who won 4,680 votes (0.5% of provincial total, without electing a candidate.
There was significant opposition within Alberta to the [[Kyoto Protocol]] as the Kyoto treaty was believed to have negative effects on the provincial economy, which is based to a large degree on the oil and gas industry. (Alberta had the world's second largest proven reserves of oil, behind only Saudi Arabia.<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.redorbit.com/news/science/246436/alberta_oil__gas_prospect_restarts_operations/index.html |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090224030914/http://redorbit.com/news/science/246436/alberta_oil__gas_prospect_restarts_operations/index.html |archive-date=February 24, 2009 |title=Alberta Oil & Gas Prospect Re-Starts Operations – Science – redOrbit}}</ref>)
Naturalized Albertan [[Stephen Harper]] (b. Leaside, Toronto, 1959) became Prime Minister of Canada in a [[minority government]] in the [[2006 Canadian federal election|2006 federal election]]. Harper had been a significant figure in the Reform Party and was leader of the Canadian Alliance from 2002 until its merger with the PCs. Due to Harper's Reform roots, Albertans held faith that he would be the trusted figure to protect Alberta's interests.{{citation needed|date=May 2026}} As a result, Alberta's separatist movement sat on the side-lines, with uncertain prospects.{{citation needed|date=May 2026}} Some pundits predicted that this result would cause support for separatism to ebb away.{{citation needed|date=May 2026}}
Public support for separation existed but remained limited during this period. In January 2004, Premier Ralph Klein told ''[[Reader's Digest]]'' that one in four Albertans supported separation. In August 2005, a poll commissioned by the ''[[Western Standard]]'' found that 42 percent of Albertans and 35.6 percent of respondents across the four western provinces supported the statement that "Western Canadians should begin to explore the idea of forming their own country."<ref>{{cite news |last1=Steel |first1=Kevin |title=A nation torn apart |url=http://www.westernstandard.ca/website/article.php?id=928 |work=[[Western Standard]] |date=August 22, 2005 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110527075128/http://www.westernstandard.ca/website/article.php?id=928 |archive-date=May 27, 2011}}</ref>
==== The ''Clarity Act'' ====
In 2000, [[Parliament of Canada|Parliament]] passed the ''[[Clarity Act]]'' at the urging of [[Prime Minister of Canada|Prime Minister]] [[Jean Chrétien]]. The Act sets out the conditions under which the federal government would enter negotiations after a provincial referendum on secession. It requires a clear referendum question and a clear majority of eligible voters in favour of secession before negotiations can begin. The Act does not define a fixed numerical threshold for a clear majority. Instead, the House of Commons is authorized to decide whether the referendum question was clear and whether a clear majority voted in favour of secession.{{citation needed|date=May 2026}}
===Mid 2010s to present: Surge of separatism and proposed referendum on separation=== {{weasel|section|date=July 2025}}
Support for Albertan separatism increased with the [[2015 Canadian federal election|Canadian federal election]] victory of the Liberal Party led [[Justin Trudeau]] on October 19, 2015.<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.630ched.com/2016/02/16/separatists-getting-louder-with-a-quiet-alberta-economy/ |title=Separatists getting louder with a quiet Alberta economy |publisher=630 CHED |date=February 16, 2016 |first=Tyler |last=Loutan |access-date=May 26, 2016}}</ref><ref name="Vice News">{{cite news |last1=Brown |first1=Drew |last2=Lamoureux |first2=Mack |title=The Last Best West: Meet Alberta's New Separatists |url=https://www.vice.com/en/article/yvx8jy/the-last-best-west-meet-albertas-new-separatists |access-date=April 18, 2022 |work=Vice News |date=February 29, 2016 |archive-date=April 18, 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220418025744/https://www.vice.com/en/article/yvx8jy/the-last-best-west-meet-albertas-new-separatists |url-status=live }}</ref><ref name="GersonInterview">{{Cite web|last=Gerson |first=Jen |title= Why leaving Canada makes sense for Alberta, and U.S. would likely welcome a new state |work=[[National Post]]|date= March 18, 2015|url=https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/why-leaving-canada-makes-sense-for-alberta-and-u-s-would-likely-welcome-a-new-state}}</ref> While speaking at a town hall in [[Peterborough, Ontario]], on January 13, 2017, Trudeau said, "We can't shut down the oil sands tomorrow. We need to phase them out. We need to manage the transition off of our dependence on fossil fuels. That is going to take time."<ref>{{Cite news|url=https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/alberta/trudeaus-oil-sands-phase-out-comments-spark-anger-in-alberta/article33622908/|title=Trudeau's oil sands 'phase-out' comments spark anger in Alberta |first1=Shawn |last1=McCarthy |first2=Kelly |last2=Cryderman |work=[[The Globe and Mail]] |date=January 13, 2017 |access-date=August 7, 2018|archive-date=September 21, 2019|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190921031934/https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/alberta/trudeaus-oil-sands-phase-out-comments-spark-anger-in-alberta/article33622908/|url-status=live}}</ref> The next day at a Calgary vs Edmonton hockey game in Edmonton, Trudeau was loudly booed by the crowd.<ref>{{Cite news|url=https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2017/01/16/justin-trudeau-booed-edmonton-oilers_n_14207906.html|title=Prime Minister Justin Trudeau Booed At Edmonton Oilers Hockey Game|date=January 16, 2017|work=HuffPost|access-date=August 7, 2018|archive-date=August 8, 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180808073121/https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2017/01/16/justin-trudeau-booed-edmonton-oilers_n_14207906.html|url-status=live}}</ref> His unpopularity in Alberta was a significant rallying point for Alberta separatists. The topic of Alberta separating from Canada was the subject of a number of mainstream media reports.<ref>{{cite news |url=http://medicinehatnews.com/commentary/opinions/2015/11/07/talk-of-the-town-is-separatism-rising-here-again/ |title=Talk of the Town: Is separatism rising here again? |newspaper=Medicine Hat News |date=November 7, 2015 |access-date=May 26, 2016 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160418225623/http://medicinehatnews.com/commentary/opinions/2015/11/07/talk-of-the-town-is-separatism-rising-here-again/|archive-date=April 18, 2016}}</ref><ref name="Vice News" /><ref name="GersonInterview" />
Geopolitical analyst [[Peter Zeihan]] stated: "Right now, every man, woman and child in Alberta pays $6,000 more into the national budget than they get back. Alberta is the only province that is a net contributor to that budget — by 2020, the number will exceed $20,000 per person, $40,000 per taxpayer. That will be the greatest wealth transfer in per capita terms in the Western world."<ref name="GersonInterview" /> Per [[Statistics Canada]], in 2015 Alberta paid $27 billion more into the federal treasury than it received back in services.<ref>{{Cite web |last= Collins |first= Erin |title= Analysis: Another decade, another Trudeau, another stab at sovereignty in Alberta |work= [[CBC News]] |date= June 10, 2017 |url= http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/alberta-politics-separatists-1.4148590 |access-date= June 11, 2018 |archive-date= June 22, 2018 |archive-url= https://web.archive.org/web/20180622212627/http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/alberta-politics-separatists-1.4148590 |url-status= live }}</ref>
A September 2018 poll by [[Ipsos]] indicated that 62% of Albertans believed that Alberta "does not get its fair share from Confederation" (up from 45% in 1997), 46% felt "more attached to their province than to their country" (up from 39% in 1997), 34% "feel less committed to Canada than I did a few years ago" (up from 22% in 1997), 18% believed "the views of western Canadians are adequately represented in Ottawa" (down from 22% in 2001), and 25% believed "My province would be better off if it separated from Canada" (up from 19% in 2001).<ref>{{Cite web |title=Western Alienation on the Rise? Not So Much |website=[[Ipsos]] |date=October 9, 2018 |url=https://www.ipsos.com/en-ca/news-polls/western-alienation-on-rise-not-so-much |access-date=November 23, 2019 |archive-date=November 23, 2019 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20191123180205/https://www.ipsos.com/en-ca/news-polls/western-alienation-on-rise-not-so-much |url-status=live }}</ref><ref>{{Cite news|first=Lawrence |last= Solomon |author-link= Lawrence Solomon |title= Lawrence Solomon: If Alberta turns separatist, the Rest of Canada is in big trouble |newspaper=[[Financial Post]]|date=December 7, 2018 |url= https://business.financialpost.com/opinion/lawrence-solomon-if-alberta-turns-separatist-the-rest-of-canada-is-in-big-troublehttps://business.financialpost.com/opinion/lawrence-solomon-if-alberta-turns-separatist-the-rest-of-canada-is-in-big-trouble }}</ref>
A February 2019 poll from [[Angus Reid (market research)|Angus Reid]] found 50% of Albertans would support secession from Canada but also found the likelihood that Alberta would separate to be "remote."<ref>{{cite news |title=A new poll suggests Alberta is the province that most wants to separate from Canada — not Quebec|url=https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/a-new-poll-suggests-alberta-is-the-province-that-most-wants-to-separate-from-canada-not-quebec |date=March 1, 2019 |language=en-CA|newspaper=[[National Post]]|first=Desai|last=Desai}}</ref>
After Trudeau's Liberals were re-elected with a minority government in the [[2019 Canadian federal election|federal election on October 21, 2019]], #Wexit (a [[wordplay]] on "[[Brexit]]", the United Kingdom's departure from the [[European Union]]) trended on social media.<ref name=":5">{{Cite news|url=https://www.ctvnews.ca/lifestyle/article/ottawa-doesnt-care-western-separatist-movement-gains-traction-as-albertans-react-to-liberal-victory/ |title='Ottawa doesn't care': Western separatist movement gains traction as Albertans react to Liberal victory|last=Bogart|first=Nicole|date=October 22, 2019|work=[[CTV News]]|language=en|access-date=October 22, 2019|url-status=live}}</ref> On November 4, the separatist group "Wexit Alberta" applied for federal political party status.<ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/wexit-federal-registration-1.5347597|title=Wexit group applies to become federal political party|work=[[CBC News]]|first=Sarah |last=Rieger |date=November 4, 2019|access-date=November 5, 2019|archive-date=July 6, 2021|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210706210633/https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/wexit-federal-registration-1.5347597|url-status=live}}</ref> On November 6, a poll conducted by Ipsos showed a historic high of interest of secession from Canada in both [[Alberta]] and [[Saskatchewan]] of 33% and 27%, respectively.<ref>{{Cite news|url=https://globalnews.ca/news/6127133/alberta-saskatechewan-ipsos-poll-separatism/|title=Separatist sentiment in Alberta, Saskatchewan at 'historic' highs: Ipsos poll|last=Maryam|first=Shah|date=November 6, 2019|work=[[Global News]]|access-date=November 9, 2019|archive-date=November 29, 2019|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20191129010424/https://globalnews.ca/news/6127133/alberta-saskatechewan-ipsos-poll-separatism/|url-status=live}}</ref><ref>{{Cite news|url=https://globalnews.ca/video/6132193/ipsos-poll-on-western-separation-records-historic-highs|title=Ipsos poll on Western separation records historic highs|date=November 6, 2019|work=[[Global News]]|access-date=November 6, 2019|archive-date=July 6, 2021|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210706210653/https://globalnews.ca/wp-content/mu-plugins/search/elasticpress/dist/css/related-posts-block-styles.min.css?m=1625069676g|url-status=live}}</ref> On January 12, 2020, [[Wexit Canada]] was granted eligibility for the next federal election.<ref>{{Cite news |url=https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/wexit-peter-downing-western-separatism-elections-canada-1.5423793 |title=Wexit party granted eligibility for next federal election |last=Dryden |first=Joel |work=[[CBC News]] |date=January 11, 2020 |access-date=January 12, 2020 |archive-date=July 6, 2021 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210706210646/https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/wexit-peter-downing-western-separatism-elections-canada-1.5423793 |url-status=live }}</ref>
A May 2020 poll by Northwest Research for [[Derek Fildebrandt]]'s ''[[Western Standard]]'' found that 41% of respondents would support independence in a referendum, 50% would be opposed, and 9% were not sure.<ref>{{Cite web|title=POLL: 45–48% of Albertans back independence|url=https://www.westernstandardonline.com/2020/05/poll-45-48-of-albertans-back-independence/|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200605235001/https://www.westernstandardonline.com/2020/05/poll-45-48-of-albertans-back-independence/|url-status=dead|archive-date=June 5, 2020|last=Naylor|first=Dave|website=[[The Western Standard]] |date=May 25, 2020 |language=en-CA|access-date=May 26, 2020}}</ref> Removing undecideds, 45% would support and 55% would be opposed. Respondents were also asked if they would support a referendum if "the federal government is unwilling to negotiate with Alberta on a new constitutional arrangement": 48% said yes, while 52% said no. Support for independence was higher outside of Alberta's two biggest cities, with Edmonton being the most opposed.
Today, supporters of Alberta independence or greater separation from Canada cite economic and political reasons as their main motivations, including resource and energy management, taxation, and federal policy.<ref>{{cite news |last1=Heintz |first1=Lauryn |title=Alberta separatism still has minority support despite resurgence in popularity: poll |url=https://edmonton.citynews.ca/2025/05/15/alberta-separatism-leger-poll/ |access-date=May 16, 2025 |work=CityNews |date=May 15, 2025 |archive-date=May 15, 2025 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250515200742/https://edmonton.citynews.ca/2025/05/15/alberta-separatism-leger-poll/ |url-status=live }}</ref> Modern Alberta separatism also differs from the [[Quebec sovereignty movement]] in its partisan base. In Alberta, support comes primarily from the political right, while Quebec sovereignty has drawn support from both the left and the right. According to an [[Angus Reid Institute|Angus Reid]] poll, 65 percent of [[United Conservative Party]] voters would vote for separation, while 97 percent of [[New Democratic Party of Alberta|Alberta NDP]] voters would vote to stay in Canada. Many Albertans polled also said they would stop supporting separation if the federal government adopted more oil-and-gas-friendly policies, such as building pipelines or repealing energy regulations. This suggests that support for Alberta separation is primarily economic, unlike the Quebec sovereignty movement.<ref>{{cite web |title=Referendum Reality? Half in Alberta & Saskatchewan call for vote on independence, but fewer would actually leave |url=https://angusreid.org/referendum-alberta-saskatchewan-smith-moe/ |website=[[Angus Reid Institute]] |date=May 8, 2025 |access-date=May 17, 2025 |archive-date=May 16, 2025 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250516071413/https://angusreid.org/referendum-alberta-saskatchewan-smith-moe/ |url-status=live }}</ref>
In the lead-up to the [[2025 Canadian federal election|2025 federal election]], some Alberta politicians and activists said that another Liberal Party victory after 10 years of government, would increase support for Alberta independence. The rise in support for the Liberal Party was partly a response to United States President [[Donald Trump]]'s call for [[Movements for the United States annexation of Canada#Proposals to annex Canada by Donald Trump|Canada to be annexed by the United States]]. Most Canadians opposed annexation, but support was higher in Alberta than in other provinces. Some Alberta residents cited stronger cultural and economic connections with the United States than with [[Eastern Canada]].<ref>{{cite news |url=https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cgkg8r85n1eo |title='We have more in common with America than the rest of Canada' |first=Nadine |last=Yousif |work=[[BBC News]] |date=April 26, 2025 |access-date=April 26, 2025 |archive-date=September 2, 2025 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250902021350/https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cgkg8r85n1eo |url-status=live }}</ref>
Following the election of a minority Liberal government, Alberta's government amended the ''Citizen Initiative Act'' to make it easier for citizens to initiate referendums, including on provincial separation from Canada. The amendments lowered the participation threshold from 20 percent of eligible voters to 10 percent of votes cast in the previous election. They also extended the signature-gathering period for petitions from 90 days to 120 days.<ref name="Johnson_20250515">{{cite news |last=Johnson |first=Lisa |date=May 15, 2025 |title=Alberta amends referendum bill as First Nations fear it will trample treaty rights |url=https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/alta-referendum-1.7535537 |access-date=August 15, 2025 |work=[[CBC News]] |archive-date=August 24, 2025 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250824191859/https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/alta-referendum-1.7535537 |url-status=live }}</ref><ref name="Kanwar_20250623">{{cite web |last=Kanwar |first=Parul |date=June 23, 2025 |title=Alberta's Bill 54 makes separation votes easier to trigger |url=https://policyoptions.irpp.org/magazines/june-2025/alberta-separatism/ |access-date=August 15, 2025 |work=[[Policy Options]] |archive-date=August 11, 2025 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250811154500/https://policyoptions.irpp.org/magazines/june-2025/alberta-separatism/ |url-status=live }}</ref><ref>{{cite news |last1=Bellefontaine |first1=Michelle |date=April 29, 2025 |title=Alberta overhauls election laws to allow corporate donations, change referendum thresholds |url=https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/alberta-overhauls-election-laws-to-allow-corporate-donations-change-referendum-thresholds-1.7522144 |access-date=May 16, 2025 |work=[[CBC News]] |archive-date=April 30, 2025 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250430003924/https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/alberta-overhauls-election-laws-to-allow-corporate-donations-change-referendum-thresholds-1.7522144 |url-status=live }}</ref> Indigenous leaders criticized the amendments and raised concerns that a separation referendum could threaten existing treaty rights.<ref name="Johnson_20250515" /> The government introduced late-stage amendments to clarify that no referendum question would be permitted to jeopardize those treaty rights.<ref name="Johnson_20250515" />
In May 2025, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith announced that she would hold a referendum on provincial separation in 2026 if citizens gathered the required signatures on a petition.<ref>{{cite news |last1=Markusoff |first1=Jason |date=May 9, 2025 |title=Will Danielle Smith steer Alberta away from separation, or will this train keep gathering steam? |url=https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/danielle-smith-separatism-demands-ottawa-analysis-1.7530569 |access-date=May 16, 2025 |work=[[CBC News]]}}</ref> In June 2025, [[2025 Alberta provincial by-elections|Alberta held three provincial by-elections]]. The separatist [[Republican Party of Alberta]] received 0.67 percent and 3.42 percent of the vote in two Edmonton by-elections, and 17.66 percent in [[Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills]].<ref>{{Cite news |title=Alberta Premier, Danielle Smith, calls 3 byelections where NDP leader and separatist leader to run |date=May 26, 2025 |url=https://globalnews.ca/news/11197879/alberta-provincial-byelections-called/ |first=Jack |last=Farrell |agency=[[The Canadian Press]] |access-date=May 27, 2025 |work=[[Global News]] |language=en-CA |archive-date=May 27, 2025 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250527000440/https://globalnews.ca/news/11197879/alberta-provincial-byelections-called/ |url-status=live }}</ref>
In June 2025, the separatist Alberta Prosperity Project, led by Mitch Sylvestre, submitted a referendum petition question: "Do you agree that the province of Alberta shall become a sovereign country and cease to be a province in Canada?"<ref name="albertaprosperityproject_20250705">{{cite press release |title=Alberta Prosperity Project Officially Files Application for Citizens Initiative Led Petition |date=July 5, 2025 |url=https://albertaprosperityproject.com/featured/for-immediate-release-alberta-prosperity-project-officially-files-application-for-citizens-initiative-led-petition/ |access-date=August 15, 2025 |website=Alberta Prosperity Project |archive-date=August 10, 2025 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250810212612/https://albertaprosperityproject.com/featured/for-immediate-release-alberta-prosperity-project-officially-files-application-for-citizens-initiative-led-petition/ |url-status=live }}</ref><ref name="Gonzalez_20250815">{{cite news |last=Gonzalez |first=Daniel |date=August 15, 2025 |title=Mitch Sylvestre speaks on King's Bench ruling on Alberta independence |url=https://calgaryherald.com/news/court-ruling-has-no-impact-on-alberta-prosperity-project-according-to-ceo-mitch-sylvestre |access-date=August 15, 2025 |newspaper=[[Calgary Herald]] |archive-date=August 15, 2025 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250815203509/https://calgaryherald.com/news/court-ruling-has-no-impact-on-alberta-prosperity-project-according-to-ceo-mitch-sylvestre |url-status=live }}</ref> Alberta Chief Electoral Officer Gordon McClure referred the question to the [[Court of King's Bench of Alberta]] on constitutional grounds. On December 5, 2025, Justice Colin C.J. Feasby ruled that the referendum proposal violated the Constitution of Canada.<ref>{{Cite news |title=Judge rules proposed Alberta separation referendum would be unconstitutional |date=December 5, 2025 |work=[[Global News]] |first=Ken |last=MacGillivray |url=https://globalnews.ca/news/11564162/alberta-judge-proposed-referendum-quesion-unconstitutional/ |access-date=January 13, 2026 |language=en-US}}</ref> The day before the judgement was released, the government tabled a bill amending the ''Citizen Initiative Act'' terminating ongoing court proceedings and removing the requirement that referendum proposals be constitutional.<ref>{{cite news |last1=Smith |first1=Madeline |title=Judge says referendum proposal on Alberta independence would be unconstitutional |url=https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/alberta-judge-proposed-referendum-unconstitutional-9.7004982 |work=[[CBC News]] |date=December 5, 2025}}</ref>
[[File:Thomas Lukaszuk, MLA Deputy Premier.jpg|thumb|Former MLA [[Thomas Lukaszuk]] led the Forever Canada petition, opposing Alberta's separation from Canada.]] Two competing referendum petitions on Alberta sovereignty followed. In August 2025, [[Thomas Lukaszuk]] launched Alberta Forever Canada, a citizen initiative opposing Alberta's separation from Canada. The proposed question asked, "Do you agree that Alberta should remain in Canada?" Lukaszuk's application cited concerns about the economic, citizenship, and treaty-rights consequences of Alberta separation. It also stated that only a minority of Albertans supported independence.<ref name="MacCuish_20250730">{{cite news |last=MacCuish |first=Cameron |date=July 30, 2025 |title=Petition for referendum to ensure Alberta remains in Canada approved by Elections Alberta |url=https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/anti-separation-petition-approved-1.7597522 |access-date=August 15, 2025 |work=[[CBC News]]}}</ref><ref name="Forever Canadian">{{cite web |title=Forever Canadian Official Campaign Website |url=https://www.forever-canadian.ca/sign-the-petition |access-date=August 15, 2025 |work=Forever Canadian |archive-date=August 14, 2025 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250814121635/https://www.forever-canadian.ca/sign-the-petition |url-status=live }}</ref><ref name="CIP_ElectionsAB_20250605">{{cite web |date=June 5, 2025 |title=Citizen Initiative Petition (CIP) Alberta Forever Canada |url=https://www.elections.ab.ca/uploads/2025-CIP-04-Application_Redacted.pdf |access-date=August 15, 2025 |publisher=[[Elections Alberta]] |archive-date=August 1, 2025 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250801112616/https://www.elections.ab.ca/uploads/2025-CIP-04-Application_Redacted.pdf |url-status=live }}</ref> Elections Alberta validated Alberta Forever Canada after it received 404,293 signatures. The government then referred the proposal to a legislative committee.<ref name="CBCNews_2025-12-01">{{Cite news|url=https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/forever-canada-petition-9.6999279|title='Forever Canadian' petition verified as successful by Elections Alberta|date=December 1, 2025 |work=[[CBC News]] }}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |last=Hunt |first=Stephen |date=February 21, 2026 |title=Premier set to form bipartisan committee to discuss Forever Canadian campaign |url=https://www.ctvnews.ca/calgary/article/premier-set-to-form-bipartisan-committee-to-discuss-forever-canadian-campaign/ |access-date=February 22, 2026 |website=[[CTV News]] |language=en |archive-date=February 22, 2026 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20260222040638/https://www.ctvnews.ca/calgary/article/premier-set-to-form-bipartisan-committee-to-discuss-forever-canadian-campaign/ |url-status=live }}</ref>
Stay Free Alberta launched a second petition in support of separation. The group claimed that it collected more than 301,000 signatures between January 3 and May 2, 2026, though this number has been disputed.<ref>{{cite news| title=Elections Alberta approves proposed referendum question on separating from Canada |first=Jack |last=Farrell |agency=[[The Canadian Press]] | work=[[The Globe and Mail]] | date=December 22, 2025 | url=https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/alberta/article-alberta-referendum-question-independence-separate-canada-danielle/ | access-date=December 24, 2025 | archive-date=December 25, 2025 | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20251225073657/https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/alberta/article-alberta-referendum-question-independence-separate-canada-danielle/ | url-status=live }}</ref><ref>{{cite news| title=Alberta Separatists Say They have 300,000 Supporters; the Evidence is Thin |first=Jared J. |last=Wesley |work=[[The Walrus]] | date=May 25, 2026 | url=https://thewalrus.ca/did-alberta-separatists-really-collect-300000-signatures/ | access-date=May 26, 2026 | url-status=live }}</ref><ref>{{Cite news |date=May 4, 2026 |title=Alberta separatist group says it has enough signatures to trigger referendum on leaving Canada |url=https://apnews.com/article/alberta-separation-canada-referendum-e93c247ccc2e5f0340a5490d88ab0da2 |access-date=May 5, 2026 |website=AP News |language=en}}</ref><ref>{{cite news |first=Matthew |last=Black |date=December 14, 2025 |title='Basically in campaign mode': Alberta separatists launch renewed referendum push after Bill 14 passes |url=https://edmontonjournal.com/news/politics/alberta-separatists-launch-renewed-referendum-push-after-bill-14-passes |work=[[Edmonton Journal]] |access-date=December 18, 2025 |archive-date=December 26, 2025 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20251226075000/https://edmontonjournal.com/news/politics/alberta-separatists-launch-renewed-referendum-push-after-bill-14-passes |url-status=live }}</ref> Its proposed question asked, "Do you agree that the province of Alberta shall become a sovereign country and cease to be a province in Canada?" [[Sturgeon Lake Cree Nation]], [[Athabasca Chipewyan First Nation]], and the [[Blackfoot Confederacy]] challenged the petition. On May 13, 2026, Justice Shaina Leonard ruled that Elections Alberta could not certify it.<ref>{{Cite news |last=Kavanagh |first=Hannah |date=May 14, 2026 |title=Alberta separation petition overturned as judge rules in favour of First Nations |url=https://www.ctvnews.ca/edmonton/article/alberta-separation-petition-overturned-as-judge-rules-in-favour-of-first-nations/ |access-date=May 14, 2026 |work=[[CTV News]] |agency=[[The Canadian Press]] |language=en}}</ref><ref>{{Cite news |last=Farrell |first=Jack |agency=[[The Canadian Press]] |date=April 11, 2026 |title=Judge orders temporary pause on Alberta separation referendum petition process |url=https://www.sootoday.com/national-news/judge-orders-temporary-pause-on-alberta-separation-referendum-petition-process-12128481 |access-date=April 17, 2026 |website=SooToday.com |language=en}}</ref> Later that day, Premier Danielle Smith said that the government would appeal the decision.<ref>{{Cite news |last=Kavanagh |first=Hannah |date=May 14, 2026 |title=Alberta separation petition overturned as judge rules in favour of First Nations |url=https://www.ctvnews.ca/edmonton/article/alberta-separation-petition-overturned-as-judge-rules-in-favour-of-first-nations/ |access-date=May 14, 2026 |work=[[CTV News]] |agency=[[The Canadian Press]] |language=en}}</ref>
In 2025, Danielle Smith gave Mark Carney until November 16 to fulfill nine demands, leading some to speculate separatism might be pursued by her government if talks fail.<ref>{{cite news |last=Mohamed |first=Rahim |date=October 7, 2025 |title=Danielle Smith says she's giving Carney until Grey Cup to fix nine 'bad laws' |url=https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/danielle-smith-says-shes-giving-carney-until-grey-cup-to-fix-nine-bad-laws |work=[[National Post]] |location=Toronto |publisher=[[Postmedia Network]] |access-date=April 4, 2026}}</ref>
On September 3, 2025, {{langr |fr |[[Parti Québécois]]}} leader [[Paul St-Pierre Plamondon]] expressed support for Alberta separatism movement.<ref>{{Cite news |last=Laberge|first=Thomas|date=September 3, 2025|title=Paul St-Pierre Plamondon ira en Alberta pour parler des « abus de pouvoir du fédéral » |trans-title=Paul St-Pierre Plamondon will go to Alberta to talk about "federal abuses of power" |url=https://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/2025-09-03/paul-st-pierre-plamondon-ira-en-alberta-pour-parler-des-abus-de-pouvoir-du-federal.php|access-date=February 16, 2026|work=La Presse|language=fr-CA}}</ref> Plamondon later revealed in January 2026 that he met with the leaders of the Alberta Prosperity Project in September, established a positive relationship with them and would be opened to assisting them in a referendum.<ref>{{Cite news |last=Lévesque |first=Fanny |date=January 30, 2026 |title=Le chef du PQ se rapproche d'un leader souverainiste de l'Alberta |url=https://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/2026-01-30/le-chef-du-pq-se-rapproche-d-un-leader-souverainiste-de-l-alberta.php |access-date=February 16, 2026 |work=La Presse |language=fr-CA}}</ref>
On April 20, 2026, Elections Alberta revealed that it believed that the APP violated third-party advertising laws by paying for public messaging over the province's $1,000 limit for non-registered groups and filed an injunction in March against them.<ref>{{Cite news |date=April 20, 2026 |title=Elections Alberta seeks injunction to force prominent separatist group to disclose finances, donors |url=https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/alberta/article-elections-alberta-seeks-injunction-for-prominent-separatist-group-to/ |access-date=April 22, 2026 |work=[[The Globe and Mail]] |first=Matthew |last=Scace |language=en-CA}}</ref> On April 30, the Republican Party of Alberta along with the Centurion Project were implicated in a large privacy breach for distributing the private information of millions of Albertans. Originally, the list was given legally to the Republican Party of Alberta but ended up being hosted by the Centurion Project on a public facing website.<ref>{{Cite news |last=Snowdon|first=Wallis|date=April 30, 2026|title=Salted Names|url=https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/livestory/elections-alberta-electors-list-9.7182971?ts=1777571176748|url-status=live|access-date=April 30, 2026|work=[[CBC News]]}}</ref> Elections Alberta went to court and was granted an injunction that database be taken down.<ref name=":12">{{Cite news |title=Alberta separatist group ordered to take down list of voters, RCMP investigating alleged privacy breach |first= Karen |last=Bartko |date=April 30, 2026 |url=https://globalnews.ca/news/11823997/alberta-elector-list-breach/|access-date=May 1, 2026|work=[[Global News]]|language=en-CA }}</ref> The [[RCMP|Alberta RCMP]] launched an investigation collaborating with other law enforcement partners in the province to determine if any other laws were broken.<ref name=":12" /><ref>{{cite web |last1=Cecco |first1=Leyland |title=Canada court quashes bid by Alberta separatists for independence referendum |url=https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/may/14/alberta-separation-referendum-independence-petition-overturned-court-canada |website=The Guardian |access-date=May 15, 2026 |date=May 14, 2026}}</ref>
[[File:Danielle Smith 2014.jpg|thumb|Premier [[Danielle Smith]], announced a referendum on whether Alberta should trigger the process for a binding referendum to separate from Canada.]] A legal challenge to the proposed referendum on separation from Canada was addressed by Alberta Justice Shaina Leonard who on 13 May 2026 ruled in favour of several First Nations whose lawyers argued that Alberta's referendum process involving its use for possible separation of Alberta from Canada has been unconstitutional because First Nations were not consulted and that separation under these circumstances would violate treaty rights.<ref name="JackFarrell_2026-05-13" /> Neil Dobson, the lawyer representing Alberta, said that it was premature for the Alberta government to consult First Nations at this point because the Alberta government was not taking any action at the time to take Alberta out of Canada and said that regarding a political discussion with First Nations over possible Alberta separation “The collection of signatures and the ability to put forward the petition in the first place is really the commencement of that political discussion”.<ref name="JackFarrell_2026-05-13" /> Jeffrey Rath of Stay Free Alberta stated that the organization is going to file an appeal.<ref name="JackFarrell_2026-05-13" /> On 21 May 2026, [[Premier of Alberta|Alberta Premier]] [[Danielle Smith]] responded to the ruling by announcing that Alberta will hold a referendum on whether to trigger the process for holding a binding referendum on Alberta separating from Canada.<ref name="Bellefontaine"/>
==Sovereignist and sympathetic organizations==
===Groups interested in establishing a sovereign country=== *Alberta Prosperity Project<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://albertaprosperityproject.com/about-us/|title=About Us – Alberta Prosperity Project|date=May 10, 2021}}</ref> *Stay Free Alberta<ref>{{Cite web |title=Stay Free Alberta – Alberta Independence Petition |url=https://stayfreealberta.com/ |access-date=2026-05-14 |website=Stay Free Alberta |language=en-CA}}</ref> *The Centurion Project<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.thecenturionproject.ca/|title=Home|website=The Centurion Project}}</ref> *Take Back Alberta<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.takingbackalberta.net/about|title=About|website=Take Back Alberta}}</ref>
===Sovereignist political parties=== ====Registered Alberta political parties==== *[[Independence Party of Alberta]]<ref>{{Cite web |url=https://albertaindependenceparty.net/ |title=Home – Alberta Independence Party |access-date=July 29, 2018 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180729111722/https://albertaindependenceparty.net/ |archive-date=July 29, 2018 |url-status=dead }}</ref> *[[Republican Party of Alberta]] (formerly the Buffalo Party of Alberta){{Citation needed|date=April 2026}} *[[Wildrose Independence Party of Alberta]] (formed through a merger of the [[Freedom Conservative Party of Alberta]] and [[Wexit Canada|Wexit Alberta]]){{Citation needed|date=April 2026}} *[[United Conservative Party of Alberta]] (elements){{Citation needed|date=April 2026}}
====Past parties, organizations, and media==== *[[Maverick Party]] (2020–2025){{Citation needed|date=April 2026}}
===Groups interested in joining the United States=== *Alberta 51 Project/Alberta USA Foundation ([[Peter Downing]])<ref>{{Cite web |date=2026-04-06 |title=Alberta 51 Project |url=https://www.ab51project.com/}}</ref><ref>{{cite web | url=https://www.narcity.com/news/ca/ab/edmonton/peter-downing-says-he-wants-alberta-to-join-the-us-due-to-better-healthcare-taxes | title=Peter Downing Explains Why Alberta Has to Ditch Canada & Join the U.S. | date=September 4, 2020 }}</ref> *[[Republican Party of Alberta]] (formerly the Buffalo Party of Alberta)
{{Use mdy dates|date=May 2026}}
==External positions==
===United States=== Since 2025, Alberta's independence movement has benefited from support and encouragement from the United States.
Between April 2025 and January 2026, the Alberta Prosperity Project met three times with [[United States Department of State]] officials. A joint meeting with the US State Department and [[United States Department of the Treasury]] is planned for February 2026 for a half trillion credit mechanism upon achieving independence.{{citation needed|date=February 2026}} Officials for the State Department and White House said these were routine meetings with civil society groups without commitments. In January 2026 [[Scott Bessent]], the US Treasury Secretary described Albertans as "a very independent people" and that Alberta was a natural American partner.<ref>{{Cite news |last1=Gridneff |first1=Ilya |last2=McCormick |first2=Myles |date=January 28, 2025 |title=Trump officials met group pushing Alberta independence from Canada |url=https://www.ft.com/content/11dc2140-6a5d-4536-b766-52c920affcc7 |access-date=January 29, 2025 |work=[[Financial Times]] |archive-date=January 29, 2026 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20260129171403/https://www.ft.com/content/11dc2140-6a5d-4536-b766-52c920affcc7 |url-status=live }}</ref> PM [[Mark Carney]] and Alberta Premier [[Danielle Smith]] said the United States should respect Canadian sovereignty. Carney said they "expect the US administration to respect Canadian sovereignty – I'm always clear with President Trump to that effect," while Smith said she expected US officials to leave discussions about the province's "democratic process" to Albertans and Canadians. Additionally, a spokesperson for Smith stated that "the overwhelming majority of Albertans are not interested in becoming a US state."<ref>{{Cite web |date=January 29, 2026 |title='Respect Canadian sovereignty', Carney tells US officials after they meet Alberta separatists |url=https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cr57j780pgmo |access-date=January 30, 2026 |website=www.bbc.com |language=en-GB}}</ref><ref name=":2">{{Cite web |date=January 29, 2026 |title=Trump officials met with Canadian separatists that want to break from rest of country |url=https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-alberta-independence-canada-separatists-b2910227.html |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20260129145116/https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-alberta-independence-canada-separatists-b2910227.html |archive-date=January 29, 2026 |access-date=January 30, 2026 |website=The Independent |language=en}}</ref> Ontario Premier [[Doug Ford]] called on Smith to take a stand and declare that "enough is enough." He called the meetings "unethical" and "unacceptable".<ref name="::3">{{Cite news |last=Tunney |first=Catharine |date=January 29, 2026 |title=B.C. premier says Alberta separatists seeking assistance from U.S. is 'treason' |url=https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/eby-alberta-separatism-9.7066320 |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20260129223008/https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/eby-alberta-separatism-9.7066320 |archive-date=January 29, 2026 |access-date=January 30, 2026 |work=CBC}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |title=B.C. premier calls meeting between Alberta separatists, Trump officials 'treason' |url=https://globalnews.ca/news/11643234/remier-eby-alberta-separation-treason/ |access-date=January 30, 2026 |website=Global News |language=en-US}}</ref> Jeffrey Rath, legal counsel for the Alberta Prosperity Project, stated that the group believed the US was "extremely enthusiastic" about an independent Alberta, claiming that its representatives had met with senior US officials who proceeded directly to the [[Oval Office]] following the discussions. Carlo Dade, an international policy expert at [[University of Calgary]], remarked that "the Americans are more than happy to continue to play Canadians off each other."<ref name=":2" />
On January 29, 2026, [[Andy Ogles]], a Republican US representative, claimed that [[Albertans]] would prefer to join the United States of America rather than stay within Canada.<ref>{{Cite news |last=Tunney |first=Catharine |date=January 29, 2026 |title=B.C. premier says Alberta separatists seeking assistance from U.S. is 'treason' |url=https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/eby-alberta-separatism-9.7066320 |access-date=January 30, 2026 |work=[[CBC News]] |archive-date=January 29, 2026 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20260129223008/https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/eby-alberta-separatism-9.7066320 |url-status=live }}</ref> Jeff Rath responded that joining the United States was not possible, preferring an independent Alberta with zero tariffs with the US and a [[single market]].<ref name=":2" /><ref name=":3">{{Cite news|url=https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/analysis-alberta-separatism-scott-bessent-9.7059168|title=The more Trump allies covet Alberta, the less popular separatism may get|last=Markusoff|first=Jason|date=January 24, 2026|access-date=January 30, 2026|work=[[CBC News]]|archive-date=January 27, 2026|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20260127015844/https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/analysis-alberta-separatism-scott-bessent-9.7059168|url-status=live}}</ref> The US stated that the meetings were regular meetings that the US pursues with various civic society actors over the years and that, allegedly no official commitment to separatism had been pursued as of yet.<ref name="CBCNews_2025-12-01" /><ref>{{Cite web|title=Smith, Carney say Trump team must respect Canadian sovereignty|url=https://ottawa.citynews.ca/2026/01/29/eby-calls-reported-meeting-between-alberta-separatists-and-u-s-official-treason/|website=CityNews Ottawa|date=January 29, 2026|access-date=January 30, 2026}}</ref>
== Criticism ==
=== Legal framework ===
Any attempt by Alberta to secede would be governed by the federal [[Clarity Act]] and the [[Supreme Court of Canada]]'s opinion in ''[[Reference re Secession of Quebec]]''.<ref name="Justice Canada">{{cite web |title=An Act to give effect to the requirement for clarity as set out in the opinion of the Supreme Court of Canada in the Quebec Secession Reference |url=https://laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/PDF/C-31.8.pdf |website=Justice Laws Website |publisher=Government of Canada |access-date=2026-05-29}}</ref><ref name="Russell_2019">{{cite web |last=Russell |first=Peter H. |title=Reference re Quebec Secession |url=https://www.constitutionalstudies.ca/2019/07/reference-re-quebec-secession/ |website=Centre for Constitutional Studies |publisher=University of Alberta |access-date=2026-05-29}}</ref> Alberta would first be required to hold a province-wide referendum posing a clear question about secession. Parliament would then decide whether the question and any resulting majority met the threshold for negotiations to begin.<ref name="EBSCO_2023">{{cite web |last=Gordon |first= Nancy M. |date=2023 |title=Canadian Parliament Passes the Clarity Act |url=https://www.ebsco.com/research-starters/history/canadian-parliament-passes-clarity-act |website=EBSCO Research Starters |publisher=EBSCO |access-date=2026-05-29}}</ref><ref name="Bowal_Bowal_2020">{{Cite web| last1 = Bowal| first1 = Peter |last2=Bowal|first2=Mackenzie |title = Provinces Leaving Canada Part II: The Clarity Act| work = LawNow Magazine| access-date = 2026-05-29| date = 2020-03-03| url = https://www.lawnow.org/famous-cases-provinces-leaving-canada-part-ii-the-clarity-act/}}</ref>
The Clarity Act sets no numerical threshold for a "clear majority," leaving that determination to Parliament based on factors such as turnout, the size of the majority, and the broader political context.<ref name="Gilan_2023">{{cite web | last = Gilan| first = Gertz|title=Clarity Act |url=https://www.ebsco.com/research-starters/social-sciences-and-humanities/clarity-act |website=EBSCO Research Starters |date=2023 |publisher=EBSCO |access-date=2026-05-29}}</ref>
In the Quebec Secession Reference, the Supreme Court held that a clear majority on a clear question would create a mutual obligation on all parties to the [[Canadian Confederation]] to negotiate constitutional changes, but confirmed that no province has a unilateral right to secede — and that any negotiations must respect the [[Constitution of Canada]], including the rights and interests of [[indigenous peoples in Canada]] and the protection of minorities.<ref name="lexum_SCC_1998">{{cite court |litigants=Reference re Secession of Quebec |year=1998 |court=SCC |url=https://scc-csc.lexum.com/scc-csc/scc-csc/en/item/1643/index.do |report=2 S.C.R. 217 |access-date=2026-05-29}}</ref><ref name="Centre for Constitutional Studies_2019">{{cite web |title=A Long and Uncertain Road to Alberta Independence |date=2019 |url=https://www.constitutionalstudies.ca/2019/07/a-long-and-uncertain-road-to-alberta-independence/ |website=Centre for Constitutional Studies |publisher=[[University of Alberta]] |access-date=2026-05-29}}</ref><ref>{{Cite news|first=Ken |last=MacGillivray |date=December 5, 2025|title=Judge rules proposed Alberta separation referendum would be unconstitutional |url=https://globalnews.ca/news/11564162/alberta-judge-proposed-referendum-quesion-unconstitutional/ |access-date=December 8, 2025 |website=Global News |language=en-US |archive-date=December 8, 2025 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20251208000028/https://globalnews.ca/news/11564162/alberta-judge-proposed-referendum-quesion-unconstitutional/ |url-status=live }}</ref>
====Numbered Treaties between First Nations and the monarchy of Canada==== [[File:Numbered-Treaties-Map.svg|thumb|Map of Canada showing the Numbered Treaties between First Nations and the Crown.]]
There is considerable First Nations opposition to Alberta separation. Alberta is covered by five [[Numbered Treaties]] between First Nations and the [[Monarchy of Canada|Crown]] (i.e., the Canadian state) which were agreed to before Alberta became a province.
The [[Confederacy of Treaty No. 6 First Nations]] stated that Alberta separation would be unconstitutional, illegal, and a threat to the treaties. It made the statement in solidarity with other First Nations in Alberta, including First Nations under [[Treaty 7]] and [[Treaty 8]].<ref name="McIntosh_20250815">{{cite news |last=McIntosh |first=Sean |date=August 15, 2025 |title=Judge to proceed with review of Alberta separation question |url=https://www.terracestandard.com/national-news/judge-to-proceed-with-review-of-alberta-separation-question-8195116 |access-date=August 15, 2025 |newspaper=Red Deer Terrace Standard |archive-date=August 15, 2025 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250815193201/https://www.terracestandard.com/national-news/judge-to-proceed-with-review-of-alberta-separation-question-8195116 |url-status=live }}</ref> The Confederacy's claims are that separation and the proposed referendum threatens and violates Aboriginal and treaty rights protected under [[section 35 of the Constitution Act, 1982|section 35 of the ''Constitution Act, 1982'']].<ref name="McIntosh_20250815" /> The Confederacy stated that it would continue opposing the Alberta government and the Alberta Prosperity Project over the proposed separation referendum; and reinforced that treaties are not only historical documents, but living agreements that bind all parties.<ref name="McIntosh_20250815" />
=== Creating economic uncertainty ===
Some economists have warned that separatist discourse could discourage investment in Alberta and make energy infrastructure negotiations more difficult.<ref name="CTV_2025-05-16">{{cite news |last1=Bruch |first1=Timm |date=May 13, 2025 |title=Critics questioning why Smith is leaving the door open to Alberta separation |url=https://www.ctvnews.ca/calgary/article/critics-questioning-why-smith-is-leaving-the-door-open-to-alberta-separation/ |access-date=May 16, 2025 |work=[[CTV News]] |location=Calgary |archive-date=May 16, 2025 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250516134029/https://www.ctvnews.ca/calgary/article/critics-questioning-why-smith-is-leaving-the-door-open-to-alberta-separation/ |url-status=live }}</ref> Retired [[McGill University]] economist [[Reuven Brenner]] compared the movement to [[Quebec separatist movement|Quebec separatism]], which contributed to major companies and thousands of residents leaving Quebec.<ref>{{Cite news |last=Tumilty |first=Ryan |date=February 16, 2026 |title=How Alberta's separatists threaten to derail billions of dollars in investments |url=https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/how-alberta-s-separatists-threaten-to-derail-billions-of-dollars-in-investments/article_d9b2e2cf-2452-4f34-8028-77449a2a429d.html |access-date=February 17, 2026 |work=[[Toronto Star]] |url-access=subscription |language=en |archive-date=February 17, 2026 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20260217062740/https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/how-alberta-s-separatists-threaten-to-derail-billions-of-dollars-in-investments/article_d9b2e2cf-2452-4f34-8028-77449a2a429d.html |url-status=live }}</ref> Trevor Tombe, a professor of economics at the [[University of Calgary]] estimates separation would reduce Alberta's economic activity by $20 billion (roughly $3,900 per Albertan), and make Alberta's economy $30 billion smaller.<ref>{{Cite news |first=Trevor |last=Tombe |title=Trevor Tombe: A separate Alberta would be a poorer Alberta |url=https://thehub.ca/2025/07/24/trevor-tombe-a-separate-alberta-would-be-a-poorer-alberta/ |access-date=February 17, 2026 |website=thehub.ca |date=July 24, 2025 |language=en-CA}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |last=Belouizdad |first=Skander |date=July 4, 2025 |title=A separate Alberta would be a poorer Alberta: Trevor Tombe in The Hub |url=https://macdonaldlaurier.ca/a-separate-alberta-would-be-a-poorer-alberta-trevor-tombe-in-the-hub/ |access-date=February 17, 2026 |website=[[Macdonald–Laurier Institute]] |language=en-CA |archive-date=March 3, 2026 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20260303080927/https://macdonaldlaurier.ca/a-separate-alberta-would-be-a-poorer-alberta-trevor-tombe-in-the-hub/ |url-status=live }}</ref> Economist Claude Lavoie notes that although an independent Alberta would collect its own taxes, it would also pay more per capita for services currently provided by the federal government, including [[national defense]], [[embassies]], [[border control]], [[employment insurance]], [[Old Age Security|old age security]] and the [[criminal justice system]].<ref name=":4">{{Cite news |first=Claude |last=Lavoie |date=March 19, 2026 |title=Opinion: Separatists think independence makes Quebec and Alberta richer. Really? |url=https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/commentary/article-separatists-think-independence-makes-quebec-and-alberta-richer-really/ |access-date=March 22, 2026 |work=[[The Globe and Mail]] |language=en-CA}}</ref> Lavoie argued that separation would weaken Alberta's trade position because an independent Alberta would not automatically inherit Canada's trade relationships with other countries.<ref name=":4" />
In March 2026, the [[Calgary Chamber of Commerce]] released a poll of Calgary businesses on the economic effects of separatist discourse. The poll found that 83 percent of respondents believed the discourse increased the risk of recession and reduced business investment. It also found that 74 percent believed businesses were considering relocation or expansion outside Alberta; 71 percent believed the discourse made it harder to attract workers; 60 percent believed it made trade or business expansion with other provinces more difficult; and 56 percent believed the discourse was affecting Alberta's economy.<ref>{{Cite news|last=Fakiha|first=Baig|date=March 12, 2026 |title=Alberta's chambers of commerce say separation talk not helping attract business |url=https://calgary.citynews.ca/2026/03/12/alberta-chambers-of-commerce-separation/ |access-date=March 13, 2026 |work=CityNews Calgary |agency=[[The Canadian Press]]|language=en}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |last=Dryden |first=Joel |date=March 9, 2026 |title=Alberta separation talk already affecting more than a quarter of surveyed Calgary businesses |url=https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/deborah-yedlin-calgary-rene-levesque-nancy-southern-9.7121058 |website=CBC News |access-date=March 13, 2026 |archive-date=March 10, 2026 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20260310010857/https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/deborah-yedlin-calgary-rene-levesque-nancy-southern-9.7121058 |url-status=live }}</ref>
=== Allegations of foreign interference ===
==== Russian government and media ==== After the [[2025 Canadian federal election|2025 federal election]], a website known as albertaseparatist.com appeared alongside a YouTube and TikTok account using the same name. Investigators later found that a Russian covert influence network, [[Storm-1516]], created the website and social media accounts. Storm-1516 has created fictional websites that target audiences in several countries.<ref>{{cite news|first=Jason |last=Markusoff |url=https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/russia-and-u-s-amplifying-alberta-separatist-narratives-to-stoke-division-distrust-report-9.7189604|title=Russia and U.S. amplifying Alberta separatist narratives to stoke division, distrust: report|date=May 6, 2026|access-date=May 12, 2026|work=[[CBC News]]}}</ref>
A joint report by the Global Centre for Democratic Resilience, the Centre for Artificial Intelligence, Data and Conflict, and DisinfoWatch stated that "Russian-aligned information infrastructure" and other social media accounts used Albertan grievances to promote separatist narratives and undermine Canada's democratic integrity, national security, and cognitive sovereignty.<ref>{{cite report |first1=Marcus |last1=Kolga |first2=Jennie |last2=Phillips |first3=Brian |last3=McQuinn |first4=Bartel |last4=Van de Walle|title=Decision Making and National Unity Under Threat: Foreign Interference, Cognitive Sovereignty, and the Alberta Referendum |url=https://disinfowatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/Alberta-and-Foreign-Interference-Report-Final-052026-web.pdf |publisher=DisinfoWatch |date=May 5, 2026}}</ref><ref>{{cite news|first=Ana |last=Faguy|url=https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cze2dnn8kgwo|title=US and Russia fuelling separatist debate in Canada, new report says|date=May 6, 2026|access-date=May 12, 2026|website=[[BBC News]]}}</ref>
==== Other ==== After the Liberal Party of Canada won a minority government in the [[2019 Canadian federal election|October 21, 2019, federal election]], #Wexit trended on social media. The term was a [[wordplay]] on "[[Brexit]]," the name used for the United Kingdom's departure from the [[European Union]].<ref name=":5" />
However, [[Hill+Knowlton]]'s analysis attributed part of the online activity to [[disinformation]] and [[Internet bot|bots]].<ref name=":6">{{Cite news|url=https://calgaryherald.com/news/local-news/canada-wexit-and-the-federal-election-targeted-in-russian-disinformation-campaign-academics-say|title=Canada, Wexit targeted in Russian disinformation campaign, experts say|last=Laing|first=Zach|date=November 3, 2019|website=[[Calgary Herald]]|access-date=November 10, 2019|archive-date=July 6, 2021|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210706210628/https://calgaryherald.com/news/local-news/canada-wexit-and-the-federal-election-targeted-in-russian-disinformation-campaign-academics-say|url-status=live}}</ref><ref name=":7">{{Cite news|url=https://www.ctvnews.ca/edmonton/article/wexit-company-says-bots-aggregators-boosted-alberta-separatist-movement-on-twitter/|title=#Wexit: Company says bots, aggregators boosted Alberta separatist movement on Twitter|last=Romero|first=Diego|date=October 22, 2019|website=[[CTV News]]|access-date=November 10, 2019|archive-date=April 25, 2025|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250425015738/https://www.ctvnews.ca/edmonton/article/wexit-company-says-bots-aggregators-boosted-alberta-separatist-movement-on-twitter/|url-status=live}}</ref> In April 2026, the Canadian Digital Media Research Network identified roughly 20 YouTube channels as part of a coordinated network that promoted separatism in western Canadian provinces through [[slopaganda]].<ref name=":8">{{Cite news |first1=Eric |last1=Szeto |first2=Ivan |last2=Angelovski |first3=Christian |last3=Paas-Lang |date=April 23, 2026 |title=Dutch YouTube creators behind Alberta separatist videos getting millions of views |url=https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/alberta-separatist-youtube-channels-netherlands-9.7174719 |work=[[CBC News]]}}</ref><ref>{{Cite news|last=Le |first=Kathy |date=April 21, 2026 |title=Network of YouTube channels pushing U.S. annexation and Alberta secession narrative, report finds |url=https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/article/co-ordinated-network-of-fake-youtube-channels-pushing-alberta-secession-and-us-annexation-narrative-report-finds/ |access-date=April 26, 2026 |website=CTVNews |language=en}}</ref> [[CBC News]] later traced some of these accounts to three individuals in the Netherlands who hired actors to appear on the YouTube channels.<ref name=":8" />
== Opinion polling on separation==
=== On the referendum question === A non-binding [[2026 Alberta independence referendum|October 2026 referendum]] will ask voters whether Alberta should begin the legal process for an actual independence referendum. {| class="wikitable sortable mw-collapsible" style="text-align:center;font-size:95%;line-height:14px" |- ! Date(s) conducted ! data-sort-type="number" style="background: rgb(0, 129, 66); color:white; width:100px;" | Yes ! data-sort-type="number" style="background: rgb(220, 36, 31); color:white; width:100px;" | No ! data-sort-type="number" style="width:40px" | Lead (pp) ! data-sort-type="number" | Sample ! Conducted by ! Polling type ! Margin of error ! Notes |- | data-sort-value="2026-05-24" | May 22–24, 2026 |35% | style="background: rgb(233, 107, 103);" | '''60%''' | style="background: rgb(220, 36, 31); color: white;" |25 |800 |Angus Reid<ref name=":1" /> |Online |±3% |Not Sure 5% |- |May 21, 2026 | colspan="8" |'''Alberta Premier [[Danielle Smith]] announces the referendum on a televised address''' |}
=== On a hypothetical separation question ===
==== Graphical summary ==== [[File:Alberta separatism opinion polling.png|center|thumb|800x800px|From March 2025 to the scheduled referendum date.]]
==== Table of polls ==== {| class="wikitable sortable mw-collapsible" style="text-align:center;font-size:95%;line-height:14px" |- ! Date(s) conducted ! data-sort-type="number" style="background: rgb(0, 129, 66); color:white; width:100px;" | Yes (Separate) ! data-sort-type="number" style="background: rgb(220, 36, 31); color:white; width:100px;" | No (Remain) !Undecided{{Efn|Includes "not sure" and "don't know"}} ! data-sort-type="number" style="width:40px" | Lead (pp) ! data-sort-type="number" | Sample ! Conducted by ! Polling type ! Margin of error ! Notes |- | data-sort-value="2026-05-24" | May 22–24, 2026 |30% | style="background: rgb(233, 107, 103);" | '''67%''' |3% | style="background: rgb(220, 36, 31); color: white;" |37 |800 |Angus Reid<ref name=":1">{{cite web |title=Alberta Separation: Three-in-five say they'd vote in October to stay, but half say the question is “confusing” |url=https://angusreid.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/2026.05.24_Alberta_referendum.pdf |website=Angus Reid |access-date=May 25, 2026 |date=May 25, 2026}}</ref> |Online |±3% | |- | data-sort-value="2026-04-22" | April 20–22, 2026 |28.1% | style="background: rgb(233, 107, 103);" | '''60.1%''' |11.8% | style="background: rgb(220, 36, 31); color: white;" |32.0 |3,129 |Mainstreet Research<ref>{{cite web |title=Alberta Survey |url=https://cdn.prod.website-files.com/66c8dfb086a015b3b519e988/6a07a4631b3925ba43a7a10f_Alberta_Apr_2026.pdf |website=[[Mainstreet Research]] |access-date=May 16, 2026 |date=May 15, 2026}}</ref> |IVR |±1.8% | |- | data-sort-value="2026-04-22" | April 7–22, 2026 |27% | style="background: rgb(233, 107, 103);" | '''67%''' |6% | style="background: rgb(220, 36, 31); color: white;" |40 |1,200 |Janet Brown Opinion Research<ref>{{Cite web |date=April 10, 2026 |title=CBC Calgary 2026 Road Ahead Poll |url=https://www.planetjanet.ca/_files/ugd/586d9d_5d66bc7eeaa347da955f18479423ec7d.pdf |access-date=April 28, 2026 |website=planetjanet.ca|language=en-CA}}</ref> |Telephone/online |±2.8% | |- | data-sort-value="2026-04-06" | April 2–6, 2026 |17% | style="background: rgb(233, 107, 103);" | '''71%''' |12% | style="background: rgb(220, 36, 31); color: white;" |54 |531 |Spark Insights<ref>{{Cite web |date=April 30, 2026 |title=Alberta politicians and businesses are essential to making the case against separatism. |url=https://sparkadvocacy.ca/insights/2026/04/alberta-politicians-and-businesses-are-essential-to-making-the-case-against-separatism |access-date=May 16, 2026 |website=sparkadvocacy.ca|language=en-CA}}</ref> |Online | | |- | data-sort-value="2026-03-04" | March 2–4, 2026 |29% | style="background: rgb(233, 107, 103);" | '''64%''' |7% | style="background: rgb(220, 36, 31); color: white;" |35 |1,003 |Léger<ref>{{Cite web |date=April 10, 2026 |title=Government of Alberta Report Card April 2026 |url=https://5233025.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na1.net/hubfs/5233025/Études%20Médiatiques/Études%20Médiatiques%20-%202026/4.%20ÉM%20-%20Avril%202026/20260410%20-%20AB%20-%20BC%20Government%20Poll/LEGER_AB%20Gov%20Report%20Card_EN_Apr2026.pdf |access-date=April 11, 2026 |website=[[Léger (company)|Leger]] |language=en-CA}}</ref> |Online |±3.1% |Independent country 23% Join USA 6% |- | data-sort-value="2026-03-25" | March 16–25, 2026 |25% | style="background: rgb(233, 107, 103);" | '''69%''' |6% | style="background: rgb(220, 36, 31); color: white;" |44 |3,200 |Pollara<ref>{{Cite web |date=April 2026 |title=Alberta Spotlight|url=https://www.pollara.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/Alberta-Spotlight-Apr-2026-media.pdf |access-date=April 9, 2026 |website=pollara.com |language=en-CA}}</ref> |Online |±1.7% | |- | data-sort-value="2026-03-04" | March 2–4, 2026 |21% | style="background: rgb(233, 107, 103);" | '''70%''' |9% | style="background: rgb(220, 36, 31); color: white;" |49 |1,001 |Léger<ref>{{Cite web |date=March 12, 2026 |title=Government of Alberta Report Card – Pulse Check March 2026 |url=https://leger360.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/Leger_ABGovReportCard_March2026.pdf?utm_source=blogs&utm_medium=webpage&utm_content=march2026&utm_campaign=etudesmediatiques |access-date=March 16, 2026 |website=[[Léger (company)|Leger]] |language=en-CA}}</ref> |Online |±3.1% |Independent country 17%; Join USA 4% |- | data-sort-value="2026-02-25" | February 20–25, 2026 |26% | style="background: rgb(233, 107, 103);" | '''64%''' |9% | style="background: rgb(220, 36, 31); color: white;" |38 |1,000 |Abacus<ref>{{Cite web |last=Coletto |first=David |date=March 5, 2026 |title=Alberta Independence Remains a Minority View. Most Believe Premier Smith Would Vote to Separate. |url=https://abacusdata.ca/alberta-independence-remains-a-minority-view-most-believe-premier-smith-would-vote-to-separate/ |access-date=March 6, 2026 |website=[[Abacus Data]] |language=en |archive-date=March 10, 2026 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20260310163741/https://abacusdata.ca/alberta-independence-remains-a-minority-view-most-believe-premier-smith-would-vote-to-separate/ |url-status=live }}</ref> |Online |±3.1% |Of Remain: 56% strongly, 9% somewhat Of Leave: 13% strongly, 13% somewhat |- | data-sort-value="2026-02-06" | February 2–6, 2026 |29% | style="background: rgb(233, 107, 103);" | '''65%''' |5% | style="background: rgb(220, 36, 31); color: white;" |34 |979 |Angus Reid<ref>{{Cite web |date=February 9, 2026 |title=Unity or Separation: Quebec, Alberta & Canada's future: In Alberta, a divided right dampens the sovereignty spark |url=https://angusreid.org/alberta-unity-separation-smith-carney-prosperity/ |access-date=February 9, 2026 |website=[[Angus Reid (market research)|Angus Reid]] |language=en-CA |archive-date=February 9, 2026 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20260209180150/https://angusreid.org/alberta-unity-separation-smith-carney-prosperity/ |url-status=live }}</ref> |Online |±3% |Of Remain: 57% strongly, 8% leaning;<br />Of Leave: 8% strongly, 21% leaning. |- |- | data-sort-value="2026-01-26" | January 23–26, 2026 |23% | style="background: rgb(233, 107, 103);" | '''71%''' |6% | style="background: rgb(220, 36, 31); color: white;" |48 |1,003 |Léger<ref>{{Cite web |date=January 23, 2026 |title=Government of Alberta Report Card – Pulse Check |url=https://leger360.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/LEGER_ABGovReportCard_Jan2026.pdf |access-date=February 3, 2026 |website=[[Léger (company)|Leger]] |language=en-CA}}</ref> |Online |±3.1% |Independent country 18%; Join USA 5% |- | data-sort-value="2026-01-14" | January 9–14, 2026 |28% | style="background: rgb(233, 107, 103);" | '''72%''' |12% | style="background: rgb(220, 36, 31); color: white;" |44 |500 |Ipsos<ref>{{Cite web |date=January 23, 2026 |title=Support for Independence in Alberta Reaches Levels Similar to Quebec |url=https://www.ipsos.com/en-ca/support-independence-alberta-reaches-levels-similar-quebec |access-date=January 30, 2026 |website=[[Ipsos]] |language=en-CA |archive-date=January 29, 2026 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20260129164717/https://www.ipsos.com/en-ca/support-independence-alberta-reaches-levels-similar-quebec |url-status=live }}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |date=January 23, 2026 |title=Data Tables |url=https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2026-01/Alberta%20Tables.pdf |access-date=January 30, 2026 |website=[[Ipsos]] |language=en-CA}}</ref> |Online |±5.4% | |- | data-sort-value="2026-01-06" | January 4–6, 2026 |31% | style="background: rgb(233, 107, 103);" | '''62%''' |7% | style="background: rgb(220, 36, 31); color: white;" |31 |703 |Research Co.<ref>{{Cite web |last=Canseco |first=Mario |date=January 8, 2026 |title=Three-in-Ten Albertans Open to Independence from Canada |url=https://researchco.ca/2026/01/08/alberta-separation-3/ |access-date=January 8, 2026 |website=Research Co. |language=en-CA |archive-date=January 11, 2026 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20260111164415/https://researchco.ca/2026/01/08/alberta-separation-3/ |url-status=live }}</ref> |Online |±3.7% | |- | data-sort-value="2025-12-20" | December 5–20, 2025 |19% | style="background: rgb(233, 107, 103);" | '''75%''' |6% | style="background: rgb(220, 36, 31); color: white;" |56 |1,000 |Pollara<ref>{{Cite web |last=Arnett |first=Kelsea |date=January 9, 2026 |title=New poll suggests one in five Albertans would vote to separate |url=https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/alberta-separation-poll-9.7039022 |access-date=January 19, 2026 |website=[[CBC News]] |language=en-CA |archive-date=January 18, 2026 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20260118232412/https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/alberta-separation-poll-9.7039022 |url-status=live }}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |title=Pollara sovereignty poll, December 2025 |url=https://338canada.com/alberta/20251213-pol-ind.htm |access-date=2026-05-25 |website=338canada}}</ref> |Online |±3.1% | |- | data-sort-value="2025-09-22" | September 5–22, 2025 |41% | style="background: rgb(233, 107, 103);" | '''52%''' |5% | style="background: rgb(220, 36, 31); color: white;" |11 |1,044 |Ekos Politics<ref>{{Cite web |date=February 1, 2026 |title=Dread Deepens to Record High as Canadians Rally to a More Churchillian Carney |url=https://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2026/01/dread-deepens-to-record-high-as-canadians-rally-to-a-more-churchillian-carney/ |access-date=February 9, 2026 |website=[[Ekos Research Associates|EKOS Politics]] |language=en-CA |archive-date=February 2, 2026 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20260202044748/https://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2026/01/dread-deepens-to-record-high-as-canadians-rally-to-a-more-churchillian-carney/ |url-status=live }}</ref> |Online |±2.2% |Poll asked: I think my province would be better off as an independent country. |- | data-sort-value="2025-05-21" | May 15–21, 2025 |18% | style="background: rgb(233, 107, 103);" | '''69%''' |13% | style="background: rgb(220, 36, 31); color: white;" |51 |400 |Abacus<ref>{{Cite web |last=Coletto |first=David |date=June 5, 2025 |title=Is Alberta Really Leaving Canada? What Canadians and Albertans Think About the Prospect of Alberta Sovereignty |url=https://abacusdata.ca/is-alberta-really-leaving-canada-what-canadians-and-albertans-think-about-the-prospect-of-alberta-sovereignty/ |access-date=June 6, 2025 |website=[[Abacus Data]] |language=en-CA |archive-date=June 6, 2025 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250606064510/https://abacusdata.ca/is-alberta-really-leaving-canada-what-canadians-and-albertans-think-about-the-prospect-of-alberta-sovereignty/ |url-status=live }}</ref> |Online |±5.0% | |- | data-sort-value="2025-05-21" | May 7–21, 2025 |28% | style="background: rgb(233, 107, 103);" | '''67%''' |5% | style="background: rgb(220, 36, 31); color: white;" |40 |1,200 |Janet Brown Opinion Research<ref>{{Cite web |date=May 22, 2025 |title=CBC Calgary Road Ahead Poll: Attitudes Toward Separation |url=https://www.planetjanet.ca/_files/ugd/586d9d_3ab8aa8a25fb439897f719aaac66a0d9.pdf |website=planetjanet.ca |access-date=June 2, 2025 |archive-date=May 29, 2025 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250529223611/https://www.planetjanet.ca/_files/ugd/586d9d_3ab8aa8a25fb439897f719aaac66a0d9.pdf |url-status=live }}</ref> |Telephone/online |±2.8% | |- | data-sort-value="2025-05-21" | May 16–21, 2025 |22% | style="background: rgb(233, 107, 103);" | '''68%''' | | style="background: rgb(220, 36, 31); color: white;" |46 |500 |Pollara<ref>{{Cite web |date=June 2025 |title=Divided or United? Public Opinion on Separatism and Federal Fairness |url=https://www.pollara.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/National-Unity-Media-Deck-June-2025.pdf |website=Pollara}}</ref> |Online |±4.4% | |- | data-sort-value="2025-05-18" | May 16–18, 2025 |47% | style="background: rgb(233, 107, 103);" |'''48%''' |5% | style="background: rgb(220, 36, 31); color: white;" |1 |171 |Léger<ref>{{Cite web |date=May 12, 2025 |title=Trust in Government, and Views on Provincial Sovereignty |url=https://leger360.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Special-report-May-20th.pdf |website=[[Léger (company)|Leger]] |access-date=June 1, 2025 |archive-date=May 30, 2025 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250530201224/https://leger360.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Special-report-May-20th.pdf |url-status=live }}</ref> |Online | |Of Remain: 38% strongly, 10% somewhat Of Leave: 29% strongly, 18% somewhat |- | data-sort-value="2025-05-15" | May 6–15, 2025 |45% | style="background: rgb(233, 107, 103);" | '''55%''' | | style="background: rgb(220, 36, 31); color: white;" |10 |810 |Kolosowski Strategies<ref>{{Cite web |last=Oldcorn |first=Christopher |date=May 16, 2025 |title=Slim majority of Albertans would stay in Canada, poll shows |url=https://www.westernstandard.news/alberta/slim-majority-of-albertans-would-stay-in-canada-poll-shows/64851 |access-date=February 4, 2026 |work=[[Western Standard]] |language=en |archive-date=May 17, 2025 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250517174834/https://www.westernstandard.news/alberta/slim-majority-of-albertans-would-stay-in-canada-poll-shows/64851 |url-status=live }}</ref> |Online |±3% | |- | data-sort-value="2025-05-12" | May 9–12, 2025 | 29% | style="background: rgb(233, 107, 103);" | '''67%''' | | style="background: rgb(220, 36, 31); color: white;" | 38 | 1,000 | Léger<ref>{{Cite web |date=May 12, 2025 |title=Alberta Politics and Separatism Sentiments |url=https://leger360.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Leger-x-National-Post_-AB-Separatism_05.14.pdf |website=[[Léger (company)|Leger]]}}</ref> |Online |±3% | |- | data-sort-value="2025-05-08" | May 6–8, 2025 |38% | style="background: rgb(233, 107, 103);" | '''62%''' | | style="background: rgb(220, 36, 31); color: white;" |24 |790 |Angus Reid<ref>{{Cite web |date=May 8, 2025 |title=Referendum Reality? Half in Alberta & Saskatchewan call for vote on independence, but fewer would actually leave – Western Canada referendum support |url=https://angusreid.org/referendum-alberta-saskatchewan-smith-moe/ |access-date=February 4, 2026 |website=[[Angus Reid (market research)|Angus Reid]] Institute |language=en-US |archive-date=May 11, 2025 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250511224337/https://angusreid.org/referendum-alberta-saskatchewan-smith-moe/ |url-status=live }}</ref> |Online |±3% | |- | colspan="12" align="center" style="background-color:#CECECE;" |The '''[[Liberal Party of Canada]] is elected a fourth consecutive term in the [[2025 Canadian federal election]] (April 28, 2025)''' |- | data-sort-value="2025-04-14" |April 10–14, 2025 |29% | style="background: rgb(233, 107, 103);" | '''71%''' | | style="background: rgb(220, 36, 31); color: white;" |42 |301 |Léger<ref>{{Cite web |date=April 16, 2025 |title=Élections fédérales 2025: Sondage auprès de la population canadienne |url=https://leger360.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/Rapport-Journal-de-Montreal-x-National-Post-16-avril-2025.pdf |website=[[Léger (company)|Leger]]}}</ref> |Online |±6% | |- |March 21, 2025 |30% | style="background: rgb(233, 107, 103);" | '''69%''' | | style="background: rgb(220, 36, 31); color: white;" |39 | |Mainstreet Research<ref>{{Cite web |last=Hodgson |first=Jen |date=March 21, 2025 |title=Poll suggests growing support for Alberta sovereignty |url=https://www.westernstandard.news/news/poll-suggests-growing-support-for-alberta-sovereignty/63328 |access-date=June 7, 2025 |work=[[Western Standard]] |language=en |archive-date=June 3, 2025 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250603080522/https://www.westernstandard.news/news/poll-suggests-growing-support-for-alberta-sovereignty/63328 |url-status=live }}</ref> |Online | | |- | data-sort-value="2025-03-24" |March 20–24, 2025 |25% | style="background: rgb(233, 107, 103);" | '''75%''' | | style="background: rgb(220, 36, 31); color: white;" |50 |600 |Angus Reid<ref>{{Cite web |title=Angus Reid Data Tables |url=https://angusreid.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/2025.04.05_sov_release_tables.pdf |website=[[Angus Reid (market research)|Angus Reid]] |access-date=May 6, 2025 |archive-date=May 6, 2025 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250506122605/https://angusreid.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/2025.04.05_sov_release_tables.pdf |url-status=live }}</ref> |Online |±4% | |- | data-sort-value="2025-03-18" |March 18, 2025 |25% | style="background: rgb(233, 107, 103);" | '''56%''' | | style="background: rgb(220, 36, 31); color: white;" |31 |1,228 |Mainstreet Research<ref>{{Cite web |last=Hodgson |first=Jen |date=March 21, 2025 |title=Poll suggests growing support for Alberta sovereignty |url=https://www.westernstandard.news/news/poll-suggests-growing-support-for-alberta-sovereignty/63328 |access-date=February 4, 2026 |work=[[Western Standard]] |language=en |archive-date=June 3, 2025 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250603080522/https://www.westernstandard.news/news/poll-suggests-growing-support-for-alberta-sovereignty/63328 |url-status=live }}</ref>
|Online |±3% | |- | colspan="12" align="center" style="background-color:#CECECE;" |The '''[[United Conservative Party]] (UCP) led by [[Danielle Smith]] is elected a 2nd term in the [[2023 Alberta general election]] (May 29, 2023)''' |- | data-sort-value="2023-06-12" |Jun 10–12, 2023 |24% | style="background: rgb(233, 107, 103);" | '''76%''' | | style="background: rgb(220, 36, 31); color: white;" |52 |800 |Research Co.<ref>{{Cite web |last=Canseco |first=Mario |date=July 7, 2023 |title=Fewer Than One-in-Four Albertans Consent to Full Independence |url=https://researchco.ca/2023/07/07/alberta-separation-2/ |access-date=February 4, 2026 |website=Research Co. |language=en-US}}</ref>
|Online |±3% | |- | data-sort-value="2022-08-22" |Aug 21–23, 2022 |25% | style="background: rgb(233, 107, 103);" | '''75%''' | | style="background: rgb(220, 36, 31); color: white;" |50 |700 |Research Co.<ref>{{Cite web |last=Canseco |first=Mario |date=September 2, 2022 |title=Fewer Than One-in-Four Albertans Support Outright Sovereignty |url=https://researchco.ca/2022/09/02/heritage-day-2022/ |access-date=February 4, 2026 |website=Research Co. |language=en-US |archive-date=October 4, 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20221004165019/https://researchco.ca/2022/09/02/heritage-day-2022/ |url-status=live }}</ref>
|Online |±4% | |- |October 13, 2021 |40% | style="background: rgb(233, 107, 103);" | '''45%''' | | style="background: rgb(220, 36, 31); color: white;" | 5 |935 |Mainstreet Research<ref>{{cite web| url = https://westernstandardonline.com/2021/10/ws-exclusive-poll-support-for-alberta-independence-hits-new-high/| archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20211019184120/https://westernstandardonline.com/2021/10/ws-exclusive-poll-support-for-alberta-independence-hits-new-high/ | url-status = dead| archive-date = October 19, 2021| title = WS Exclusive POLL: Support for Alberta independence hits new high |work=The Western Standard| date = October 19, 2021}}</ref> |Online |±3% | |- | colspan="12" align="center" style="background-color:#CECECE;" |The '''[[Liberal Party of Canada]] is elected a third consecutive term in the [[2021 Canadian federal election]] (September 20, 2021)''' |- | data-sort-value="2021-02-09" |Feb 7–9, 2021 |27% | style="background: rgb(233, 107, 103);" |'''73%''' | | style="background: rgb(220, 36, 31); color: white;" |46 |600 |Research Co.<ref>{{Cite web |last=Canseco |first=Mario |date=February 16, 2021 |title=One-in-Four Albertans Support Becoming an Independent Nation |url=https://researchco.ca/2021/02/16/western-alienation/ |access-date=February 4, 2026 |website=Research Co. |language=en-US |archive-date=February 18, 2021 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210218010723/https://researchco.ca/2021/02/16/western-alienation/ |url-status=live }}</ref>
|Online |±4% | |- | data-sort-value="2020-05-19" |May 14–19, 2020 |45% | style="background: rgb(233, 107, 103);" |'''55%''' | | style="background: rgb(220, 36, 31); color: white;" |10 |1,094 |Northwest Research<ref>{{Cite web |date=May 25, 2020 |title=Perspectives on Independence In Alberta |url=https://www.westernstandardonline.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Western-Standard-Research-May-25th.pdf |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200604071612/https://www.westernstandardonline.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Western-Standard-Research-May-25th.pdf |archive-date=June 4, 2020 |access-date=February 4, 2026 |work=[[Western Standard]]}}</ref> | |±3% |- | data-sort-value="2019-12-20" |Dec 18–20, 2019 |42% | style="background: rgb(233, 107, 103);" |'''58%''' | | style="background: rgb(220, 36, 31); color: white;" |16 | | Research Co.<ref>{{Cite web |last=Canseco |first=Mario |date=January 7, 2020 |title=Alberta premier's unpopularity blunts spike in support for separatism: poll |url=https://www.biv.com/news/commentary/alberta-premiers-unpopularity-blunts-spike-support-separatism-poll-8258570 |website=Business Intelligence for BC |access-date=February 4, 2026 |archive-date=August 8, 2025 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250808093439/https://www.biv.com/news/commentary/alberta-premiers-unpopularity-blunts-spike-support-separatism-poll-8258570 |url-status=live }}</ref> |Online | |Sample size was 1,000 for all of Canada |- | data-sort-value="2019-11-17" |Nov 12–17, 2019 |25% | style="background: rgb(233, 107, 103);" |'''75%''' | | style="background: rgb(220, 36, 31); color: white;" |50 | |Abacus<ref>{{Cite web |date=November 19, 2019 |title=Does Alberta want in or out and how does the rest of the country feel? |url=https://abacusdata.ca/alberta-wexit-separation-poll-abacus-data/ |access-date=February 4, 2026 |website=[[Abacus Data]] |language=en-CA |archive-date=June 5, 2020 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200605082743/https://abacusdata.ca/alberta-wexit-separation-poll-abacus-data/ |url-status=live }}</ref> |Online | |Sample size was 3,000 for all of Canada |- | data-sort-value="2019-11-01" |Oct 24 – November 1, 2019 |38% | style="background: rgb(233, 107, 103);" |'''62%''' | | style="background: rgb(220, 36, 31); color: white;" |24 |250 |Ipsos<ref>{{Cite web |date=November 5, 2019 |title=Canadians Across All Regions Feel Country More Divided than Ever |url=https://www.ipsos.com/en-ca/news-polls/Canadians-Across-Regions-Feel-Country-More-Divided-than-Ever |access-date=February 4, 2026 |website=[[Ipsos]] |language=en-ca |archive-date=May 24, 2020 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200524151359/https://www.ipsos.com/en-ca/news-polls/Canadians-Across-Regions-Feel-Country-More-Divided-than-Ever |url-status=live }}</ref> |Online |±6% | |- | colspan="12" align="center" style="background-color:#CECECE;" |The '''[[Liberal Party of Canada]] is elected a second consecutive term in the [[2019 Canadian federal election]] (October 21, 2019)''' |- | colspan="12" align="center" style="background-color:#CECECE;" |The '''[[United Conservative Party]] (UCP) led by [[Jason Kenney]] is elected in the [[2019 Alberta general election]] (April 16, 2019)''' |- | data-sort-value="2018-17-8" |Sep 11–17, 2018 |25% | style="background: rgb(233, 107, 103);" |'''75%''' | | style="background: rgb(220, 36, 31); color: white;" |50 |400 |Ipsos<ref>{{Cite web |date=October 9, 2018 |title=Western Alienation on the Rise? Not So Much. |url=https://www.ipsos.com/en-ca/news-polls/western-alienation-on-rise-not-so-much |access-date=February 4, 2026 |website=[[Ipsos]] |language=en-ca |archive-date=November 23, 2019 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20191123180205/https://www.ipsos.com/en-ca/news-polls/western-alienation-on-rise-not-so-much |url-status=live }}</ref> |Online |±5% | |- |}
==See also== *[[Quebec sovereignty movement]] *[[1995 Quebec referendum]] *[[51st State#Alberta]] *[[Pro-Americanism]] *[[Athabasca oil sands]] *[[Annexation movements of Canada|Movements for an American annexation of Canada]] *[[Cascadia movement]] *[[List of political parties in Alberta]] *[[Politics of Alberta]] *[[Politics of Montana]] *[[Secessionist movements of Canada]] *[[Western alienation]] *[[Western Canada Concept]] *[[Anti-Canadian sentiment]] *[[Jordan Cove Energy Project]] and [[Alaska LNG]]
== Notes == {{Notelist}}
== References == {{Reflist}}
==Further reading== {{Wikiquote|Alberta}} {{refbegin}} * {{cite journal |last1=Bell |first1=Edward |title=Separatism and Quasi-Separatism in Alberta |journal=Prairie Forum |date=September 2007 |volume=32 |issue=2 |pages=335–355}} * {{cite book |last1=Pratt |first1=Larry |last2=Stevenson |first2=Garth |title=Western Separatism: The Myths, Realities & Dangers |date=1981 |publisher=Hurtig Publ |location=Edmonton |isbn=0-88830-206-1}} * {{cite book |last1=Wagner |first1=Michael |title=Alberta: Separatism Then and Now |date=2009 |publisher=Freedom Press |location=St. Catharines, ON |isbn=978-1-927684-32-0}}, favourable account that concludes, "The odds of Alberta actually leaving Confederation are remote, at this point." However, he adds, "in my view, separatism has a future." * {{cite book |last1=Zeihan |first1=Peter |title=The Accidental Superpower: the next generation of American preeminence and the coming global disorder |date=2014 |publisher=Twelve |location=New York |isbn=978-1-4555-8366-9 |url=https://archive.org/details/accidentalsuperp0000zeih |url-access=registration}}, Chapter devoted to Alberta separatism. {{refend}}
{{Topics on Alberta}} {{Conservatism in Canada}} {{Secession in Countries}}
{{DEFAULTSORT:Alberta Separatism}} [[Category:Politics of Alberta]] [[Category:Separatism in Canada]] [[Category:Politics of Western Canada]] [[Category:Anti-Canadian sentiment| ]] [[Category:Secessionist organizations in Canada]] [[Category:Pro-Americanism]] [[Category:Rural society in Canada]] [[Category:Independence movements]] [[Category:Proposed countries]] [[Category:Western Canadian separatism]]