{{Short description|Canadian political commentary website}} {{Infobox website | name = 338Canada | native_name_lang = en | logo = | language = English | founded = 2017 | country_of_origin = Canada | founder = Philippe J. Fournier | url = {{URL|338canada.com}}<br>{{URL|qc125.com}} }} '''338Canada''', also known as '''Qc125''' in Quebec, is a Canadian political forecasting and commentary website that was founded in 2017. The website's name refers to the 338 federal constituencies that were represented in the House of Commons between 2015 and 2025. The website provides projections for Canadian elections, as well as French and American presidential elections.
==History== 338Canada was founded by Philippe J. Fournier in 2017 as an electoral statistics and projections website.<ref>{{cite web |title=Philippe J. Fournier |url=https://www.politico.com/contributor/philippe-j-fournier |website=POLITICO |access-date=15 January 2025}}</ref> In 2020 and 2024, the site produced projections for the 2020 United States presidential election and the 2024 United States presidential election.<ref>{{cite web |title=A final 338Canada U.S. election projection: Where the race will be won or lost |url=https://macleans.ca/politics/washington/a-final-338canada-u-s-election-projection-where-the-race-will-be-won-or-lost/ |website=Maclean's |access-date=15 January 2025}}</ref><ref>{{cite web |title=Donald Trump’s potential path to victory: 338Canada |url=https://macleans.ca/politics/washington/donald-trumps-potential-path-to-victory-338canada/ |website=Maclean’s |access-date=15 January 2025}}</ref>
===2025 Canadian federal election=== In January 2025, the site gave the Conservative Party of Canada a >99% chance to win the 2025 Canadian federal election,<ref>{{cite web |title='Trudeau can't go on like this': Why Canada's PM is under growing pressure to quit |url=https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/rest-of-world/trudeau-cant-go-on-like-this-why-canada-pm-is-under-growing-pressure-to-quit/articleshow/111291935.cms |website=The Times of India |access-date=15 January 2025}}</ref> but this has since reversed.<ref>{{cite web |title='338Canada Odds of Winning the Most Seats': 338Canada Odds of Winning the Most Seats|url=https://338canada.com/federal.htm|website=338Canada|access-date=26 March 2025}}</ref> Fournier called the 2024 Toronto—St. Paul's federal by-election a "disaster for the Liberals."<ref>{{cite web |title=Canada's Trudeau to stay in office after special election 'disaster' |url=https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/canadas-trudeau-under-fresh-pressure-after-special-election-disaster-2024-06-25/ |website=Reuters |access-date=15 January 2025}}</ref> In April 2025, the month of the election, the projection had switched from a very likely Conservative win to a "safe" win for Mark Carney, of the Liberal Party.<ref>{{cite web |title=Among riding races for political leaders, Carney ‘safe’ bet to win; Singh likely to ‘lose,’ says 338Canada’s Fournier |url=https://www.hilltimes.com/story/2025/04/21/among-riding-races-for-political-leaders-liberal-mark-carney-only-safe-bet-to-win-the-ndps-jagmeet-singh-likely-to-lose-says-338canadas-philipp/457139/ |website=Hill Times |access-date=24 April 2025}}</ref>
==Projections== The site creates federal projections, as well as projections for province-level ridings.<ref>{{cite web |title=Richmond ridings projected by 338Canada.com |url=https://www.richmond-news.com/local-news/richmond-ridings-projected-by-338canadacom-3144392 |website=Richmond News |access-date=15 January 2025}}</ref> Overall, the site has a 89.7% projection rate across 17 total provincial and federal elections, with the most accurate projection being in the 2024 Nova Scotia general election.<ref>{{cite web |title=Federal polls show Conservative wave sweeping much of Nova Scotia |url=https://www.saltwire.com/atlantic-canada/federal-polls-show-conservative-wave-sweeping-much-of-nova-scotia-100999261 |website=PNI Atlantic News |access-date=15 January 2025}}</ref><ref>{{cite web |title=The Record So Far |url=https://338canada.com/record.htm |website=338Canada |access-date=15 January 2025}}</ref> ==References== {{reflist}}
Category:Canadian political websites Category:Internet properties established in 2017 Category:2017 establishments in Canada Category:Aggregation websites Category:Opinion polling in Canada