See also: 2018 United States gubernatorial elections
Governor
presidential
Election name2018 New Mexico gubernatorial election
CountryNew Mexico
Ongoingno
Previous election2014 New Mexico gubernatorial election
Previous year2014
Next election2022 New Mexico gubernatorial election
Next year2022
Election dateNovember 6, 2018
Nominee 1Michelle Lujan Grisham
Party 1Democratic Party (United States)
Running mate 1Howie Morales
Popular vote 1398,368
Percentage 157.20%
Nominee 2Steve Pearce
Party 2Republican Party (United States)
Running mate 2Michelle Garcia Holmes
Popular vote 2298,091
Percentage 242.80%
Before electionSusana Martinez
Before partyRepublican Party (United States)
After electionMichelle Lujan Grisham
After partyDemocratic Party (United States)

The 2018 New Mexico gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the next governor of New Mexico, concurrently with the election of New Mexico's Class I U.S. Senate seat, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various local elections. This was one of eight Republican-held governorships up for election in a state carried by Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election.

Incumbent Republican Governor Susana Martinez was term-limited and could not seek a third consecutive term. Following party primaries on June 5, 2018, U.S. Representative Steve Pearce was the Republican nominee and U.S. Representative Michelle Lujan Grisham was the Democratic nominee. Lujan Grisham won the election by a substantial margin, which in fact was a complete and exact reversal of the 2014 gubernatorial results. Her win also signaled a continuation of the pattern of the partisanship of the office changing every two terms, beginning with Gary Johnson's first election in 1994. Furthermore, the pattern of the partisanship changing with each officeholder was continued, a pattern first started after Toney Anaya left office in 1987. Furthermore, the margin between the candidates (57.2% to 42.8%) was the same as the previous election, albeit with the parties switched.

Background

At the presidential level, New Mexico has begun to trend into a Democratic-leaning swing state. It has gone Democratic in all but one presidential election since 1992. The only break in this trend came in 2004, when George W. Bush won it by less than a point. However, in 2008, Barack Obama won the state over John McCain by 15 points and in 2012 by 10 points over Mitt Romney. In 2016, Democrat Hillary Clinton defeated Republican Donald Trump by eight points.

However, in 2010, then-District Attorney of New Mexico's Third Judicial District Susana Martinez won the election, becoming the first US Latina Governor, over Lieutenant Governor Diane Denish, former running mate of two-term Democrat Bill Richardson, by approximately seven points. In 2014, Martinez was re-elected over state Attorney General Gary King by nearly 15 points. It has been described as one of the Democrats' best chances at a pickup, due to Gov. Martinez's unpopularity and because "she's leaving behind a high unemployment rate and struggling education system."[1]

The 2018 primary election results show 116,311 votes for Democratic candidate Michelle Lujan Grisham and a total of 175,182 for all three Democratic candidates while Republican candidate/nominee Steve Pearce received 74,705; note that 23% of New Mexico's registered voters are third party or independents (280,000), who do not vote in the primary election.

Republican primary

Governor

Candidates

Nominated
Declined

Lieutenant governor

Candidates

Declared
Withdrew
  • Kelly Zunie, former secretary of the New Mexico Indian Affairs Department[9][10]
Declined

Democratic primary

Governor

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[a]		Margin
of error		Jeff
Apodaca		Joe
Cervantes		Michelle
Lujan Grisham		OtherUndecided
Research & Polling, Inc.[28]May 20–24, 2018444 (LV)± 4.6%15%9%57%–19%
GQR Research (D)[29][A]February 14–19, 2018400 (LV)± 4.9%13%6%72%2%[b]6%
GQR Research (D)[30][B]October 12–18, 2017446 (LV)± 4.6%10%3%75%2%[b]10%

Lieutenant governor

Candidates

Declared
Withdrew
Declined

Libertarian primary

Based on the party's voter registration numbers and presidential nominee Gary Johnson's result in 2016, the Libertarian Party holds major-party status in New Mexico.[39] Under New Mexico law, both gubernatorial and lieutenant governor candidates must receive each at least 230 signatures from registered Libertarian voters to formally receive the nomination and be placed on the ballot as the Libertarian nominees. Both Walsh and Dunn failed to meet that requirement and were not on the ballot.[40]

Governor

Candidates

Declared
  • Bob Walsh, retired mathematician[41]
Declined

Lieutenant governor

Candidates

Declared

General election

Debates

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[47]October 26, 2018
The Washington Post[48]November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[49]November 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report[50]November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[51]November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[52]November 4, 2018
Daily Kos[53]November 5, 2018
Fox News[54][c]November 5, 2018
Politico[55]November 5, 2018
Governing[56]November 5, 2018

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[a]		Margin
of error		Steve
Pearce (R)		Michelle Lujan
Grisham (D)		Undecided
Research Co.[57]November 1–3, 2018450 (V)± 4.6%41%53%6%
Research & Polling, Inc.[58]October 26 – November 1, 2018993 (LV)± 3.1%43%53%4%
Carroll Strategies[59]October 29, 20181,200 (LV)± 2.8%45%51%4%
Emerson College[60]October 24–26, 2018936 (LV)± 3.4%44%53%4%
GQR Research (D)[61][A]October 22–26, 2018600 (LV)± 4.0%44%53%4%
Pacific Market Research[62]October 19–24, 2018400 (LV)± 4.9%39%48%13%
NSON Opinion Strategy (L)[63][C]September 20–24, 2018932 (LV)–40%44%16%
Research & Polling, Inc.[64]September 7–13, 2018966 (LV)± 3.1%43%50%–
Global Strategy Group (D)[65][D]August 27–30, 2018601 (LV)± 4.0%42%52%5%
GQR Research (D)[66][A]August 18–22, 2018600 (LV)± 4.0%44%52%–
Emerson College[67]August 17–18, 2018500 (RV)± 4.6%40%42%18%
The Tarrance Group (R)[68][E]April 9–12, 2018608 (LV)± 4.1%45%47%8%
The Tarrance Group (R)[69]May 20–23, 2017605 (RV)± 4.1%43%47%10%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[a]		Margin
of error		Steve
Pearce (R)		Michelle Lujan
Grisham (D)		Bob
Walsh (L)		Undecided
NSON Opinion Strategy (L)[70]July 2018500 (LV)–37%44%7%11%
SurveyUSA[71]June 19–23, 2018535 (LV)± 5.0%38%51%3%8%
Carroll Strategies[72]June 15–16, 20181,199 (LV)± 2.8%42%51%3%4%

Results

By county

County[73]Michelle Lujan Grisham
Democratic		Steve Pearce
Republican		MarginTotal votes cast
%%%
Bernalillo149,48062.10%91,22137.90%58,25924.20%240,701
Catron51127.73%1,33272.27%-821-44.55%1,843
Chaves5,34832.02%11,35267.98%-6,004-35.95%16,700
Cibola3,98855.94%3,14144.06%84711.88%7,129
Colfax2,32749.91%2,33550.09%-8-0.17%4,662
Curry3,10630.41%7,10769.59%-4,001-39.18%10,213
De Baca22928.06%58771.94%-358-43.87%816
Doña Ana36,95460.64%23,98539.36%12,96921.28%60,939
Eddy4,63129.29%11,17870.71%-6,547-41.41%15,809
Grant7,04359.72%4,75040.28%2,29319.44%11,793
Guadalupe1,02160.27%67339.73%34820.54%1,694
Harding17837.24%30062.76%-122-25.52%478
Hidalgo78548.25%84251.75%-57-3.50%1,627
Lea3,08622.15%10,84577.85%-7,759-55.70%13,931
Lincoln2,62533.48%5,21666.52%-2,591-33.04%7,841
Los Alamos6,00558.61%4,24041.39%1,76517.23%10,245
Luna2,96748.30%3,17651.70%-209-3.40%6,143
McKinley13,11771.46%5,23828.54%7,87942.93%18,355
Mora1,66471.05%67828.95%98642.10%2,342
Otero6,45037.73%10,64462.27%-4,194-24.53%17,094
Quay1,14437.03%1,94562.97%-801-25.93%3,089
Rio Arriba9,35273.00%3,45927.00%5,89346.00%12,811
Roosevelt1,43030.74%3,22269.26%-1,792-38.52%4,652
San Juan13,34735.78%23,96164.22%-10,614-28.45%37,308
San Miguel7,00175.78%2,23824.22%4,76351.55%9,239
Sandoval30,42555.09%24,80344.91%5,62210.18%55,228
Santa Fe52,69278.54%14,39421.46%38,29857.09%67,086
Sierra1,88039.81%2,84360.19%-963-20.39%4,723
Socorro3,59657.44%2,66442.56%93214.89%6,260
Taos11,80681.46%2,68718.54%9,11962.92%14,493
Torrance2,04838.17%3,31761.83%-1,269-23.65%5,365
Union41528.15%1,05971.85%-644-43.69%1,474
Valencia11,71748.07%12,65951.93%-942-3.86%24,376
Total398,36857.20%298,09142.80%100,27714.40%696,459

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Grisham won two of three congressional districts, with Pearce winning the remaining one, which elected a Democrat.[74]

DistrictPearceLujan GrishamRepresentative
39%61%Michelle Lujan Grisham
Deb Haaland
53%47%Steve Pearce
Xochitl Torres Small
39%61%Ben Ray Luján

See also

Notes

  1. ^ Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ Peter DeBenedittis with 2%
  3. ^ The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Partisan clients

  1. ^ Poll conducted for Lujan Grisham's campaign.
  2. ^ Poll conducted for The Majority Institute, a research and strategy hub affiliated with the Democratic Party.
  3. ^ Poll conducted for the Elect Liberty PAC, an organization dedicated to promoting Libertarian candidates.
  4. ^ Poll conducted for Hector Balderas, the incumbent New Mexico Attorney General.
  5. ^ Poll conducted for Pearce's campaign.

References

  1. ^ Phillips, Amber, "The top 10 gubernatorial races of 2018, "The Washington Post", January 6, 2018
  2. ^ Coleman, Michael (July 10, 2017). "Pearce to run for governor of New Mexico". Albuquerque Journal. Retrieved July 10, 2017.
  3. ^ Haussamen, Heath (August 10, 2016). "Q&A: Land Commissioner Dunn has his own proposal to fund early childhood programs". NMPolitics.net. Retrieved December 8, 2016.
  4. ^ Oxford, Andrew (May 13, 2017). "Pearce confirms he's weighing run for governor". The Santa Fe New Mexican. Retrieved May 15, 2017.
  5. ^ Terrell, Steve (July 10, 2017). "Land Commissioner Dunn will announce his political plans early next week". The Santa Fe New Mexican. Retrieved July 12, 2017.
  6. ^ Terrell, Steve (December 7, 2016). "Citing strength as senator, Udall says he won't run for governor in 2018". The Santa Fe New Mexican. Retrieved December 8, 2016.
  7. ^ Terrell, Steve (July 11, 2017). "John Sanchez NOT running for governor". The Santa Fe New Mexican. Retrieved July 12, 2017.
  8. ^ Oxford, Andrew (November 30, 2017). "Newly registered Republican makes bid to become GOP lieutenant governor nominee". The Santa Fe New Mexican. Retrieved December 6, 2017.
  9. ^ Chacón, Daniel J. (August 15, 2017). "Native American running for GOP lieutenant governor spot". The Santa Fe New Mexican. Retrieved September 1, 2017.
  10. ^ Boyd, Dan (November 17, 2017). "Republican drops out of race for lieutenant governor, cites residency rules". Albuquerque Journal. Retrieved November 20, 2017.
  11. ^ Monahan, Joe (August 16, 2017). "Campaign Trail Dust: Not So Fast On GOP Lt. Gov. Nod; Race Developing, Latest Perceptions On Dem Guv Chase And Our Continuing Crime Wave Coverage". New Mexico Politics with Joe Monahan. Retrieved September 1, 2017.
  12. ^ Boyd, Dan (December 13, 2016). "U.S. Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham announces 2018 gubernatorial bid". Albuquerque Journal. Retrieved December 13, 2016.
  13. ^ Reichbach, Matthew (December 8, 2016). "Udall said no, but some Dems still looking at 2018 run for governor". New Mexico Political Report. Retrieved December 7, 2016.
  14. ^ Oxford, Andrew (May 3, 2017). "Jeff Apodaca to run for governor". Santa Fe New Mexican. Retrieved May 3, 2017.
  15. ^ Peters, Joey (July 7, 2017). "Las Cruces legislator cites budget, jobs crisis for why he's running for governor". NMPolitics.net. Retrieved July 10, 2017.
  16. ^ Terrell, Steve (May 16, 2017). "Balderas to seek re-election as AG, won't run for governor". The Santa Fe New Mexican. Retrieved May 17, 2017.
  17. ^ Haussamen, Heath (December 9, 2016). "Santa Fe mayor also considering running for governor". New Mexico Politics. Retrieved December 9, 2016.
  18. ^ Last, T.S. (November 28, 2014). "Is the Governor's Office the next stop for Mayor Gonzales?". Albuquerque Journal. Retrieved July 6, 2016.
  19. ^ Nott, Robert (December 9, 2017). "Gonzales announces bid for lt. gov. in crowded Dem field". The Santa Fe New Mexican. Retrieved December 11, 2017.
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  21. ^ Monahan, Joe (March 10, 2015). "'18 Guv Positioning Takes Shape". New Mexico Politics with Joe Monahan. Retrieved March 18, 2015.
  22. ^ Haussamen, Heath (May 12, 2016). "Q&A: Auditor Keller says better funding his office would protect tax dollars". NMPolitics.net. Retrieved July 14, 2016.
  23. ^ Boyd, Dan (December 10, 2016). "Governor's race could get crowded". Albuquerque Journal. Retrieved December 11, 2016.
  24. ^ Terrell, Steve (November 9, 2016). "Udall weighs run for governor in 2018". The Santa Fe New Mexican. Retrieved November 10, 2016.
  25. ^ Coleman, Michael (December 7, 2016). "Udall won't run for governor in 2018". Albuquerque Journal. Retrieved December 7, 2016.
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  28. ^ "Research & Polling, Inc."
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  30. ^ GQR Research (D)
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  32. ^ Horwath, Justin (June 12, 2017). "Miera and McTeigue announce runs for Lt. Gov.". The Santa Fe New Mexican. Retrieved September 1, 2017.
  33. ^ Oxford, Andrew (December 5, 2017). "Sen. Morales launches bid for lieutenant governor". The Santa Fe New Mexican. Retrieved December 6, 2017.
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  35. ^ "Home". Javier Gonzales. Archived from the original on 2018-02-20. Retrieved 2018-02-20.
  36. ^ Terrell, Steve (July 19, 2017). "State Sen. Padilla will run for lieutenant governor". The Santa Fe New Mexican. Retrieved September 1, 2017.
  37. ^ McKay, Dan (December 4, 2017). "Padilla drops bid for lieutenant governor". Albuquerque Journal. Retrieved December 6, 2017.
  38. ^ Boyd, Dan (July 21, 2017). "State Sen. Padilla will run for lieutenant governor". Albuquerque Journal. Retrieved September 1, 2017.
  39. ^ Press release [dead link]
  40. ^ Oxford, Andrew (June 26, 2018). "Libertarian candidate for governor fails to make ballot". Santa Fe New Mexican
  41. ^ Oxford, Andrew (March 20, 2018). "Three Dunns running: For New Mexico's Libertarian Party, it's a family affair". Santa Fe New Mexican. Retrieved May 13, 2018.
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  43. ^ "Son: State Land Commissioner Aubrey Dunn mulling run for governor, as Libertarian". Retrieved 22 May 2018.
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  45. ^ Morgan Lee - The Associated Press (13 November 2017). "With easy ballot access, Libertarian Party seeks N.M. candidates; Dunn eyes bid for governor". Retrieved 22 May 2018.
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  74. ^ "DRA 2020". Daves Redistricting

Official Governor campaign websites

Official Lt. Governor campaign websites