# Ray Fair

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{{short description|American economist (born 1942)}}
{{Blp sources|date=June 2025}}{{Infobox economist
| birth_date = {{birth date and age|1942|10|4}}
| birth_place = [Fresno](/source/Fresno%2C_California), [California](/source/California), U.S.
| institution = [Yale University](/source/Yale_University) <!-- or: | institutions =  -->
| field = [Macroeconomics](/source/Macroeconomics)
| alma_mater = [Massachusetts Institute of Technology](/source/Massachusetts_Institute_of_Technology)<br>[Fresno State College](/source/California_State_University%2C_Fresno)
| doctoral_advisor = [Robert Solow](/source/Robert_Solow)<ref>{{Cite web |title=New search platform launched {{!}} MIT Libraries |url=https://libraries.mit.edu/research-support/new-search-platform-launched/ |access-date=2025-06-11 |website=libraries.mit.edu |language=en-US}}</ref>
| awards = 
| spouse = [Sharon Oster](/source/Sharon_Oster) <!-- or: | spouses =  -->
| repec_prefix = e
| repec_id = pfa24
}}

'''Ray Clarence Fair''' (born October 4, 1942) is an American economist who is a John M. Musser Professor of [Economics](/source/Economics) at [Yale University](/source/Yale_University).

== Education and career ==
Fair received his B.A. from [Fresno State College](/source/California_State_University%2C_Fresno) in 1964 and his Ph.D. from [MIT](/source/Massachusetts_Institute_of_Technology) in 1968.  He spent several years at [Princeton University](/source/Princeton_University) before moving to Yale.  He is now a professor within the [Cowles Foundation](/source/Cowles_Foundation) and the International Center for Finance.

Fair's teaching and research interests include [macroeconomic theory](/source/macroeconomics), [econometrics](/source/econometrics), and [macroeconometric modeling](/source/Macroeconomic_model).  He is the author, along with [Karl Case](/source/Karl_Case) of [Wellesley College](/source/Wellesley_College), of the economics textbook ''Principles of Economics''.  He has also authored several books pertaining to modeling, including ''Testing Macroeconometric Models'' (1994) and ''Estimating How the Macroeconomy Works'' (2004).

He is noted for his methods for predicting the outcome of U.S. presidential elections, for which his work has been frequently cited. He published ''Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things'' on this subject in 2002.

Ray Fair maintains a macroeconomic model, data, software and forecasts on his home page and that are also available for free downloading for use on a personal computer. The Fair Model macroeconomic model forecasts for the United States and 38 other countries. His model predicted a Trump victory in 2016.<ref>{{Cite web |last=Prokop |first=Andrew |date=2016-11-09 |title=Few predicted Trump had a good shot of winning. But political science models did. |url=https://www.vox.com/2016/11/9/13571872/why-donald-trump-won |access-date=2025-06-11 |website=Vox |language=en-US}}</ref>

Fair lives in [New Haven](/source/New_Haven%2C_Connecticut), [Connecticut](/source/Connecticut). He was married to [Sharon Oster](/source/Sharon_Oster), a professor at the [Yale School of Management](/source/Yale_School_of_Management), until her death in 2022. He is the father of [Emily Oster](/source/Emily_Oster), an economist at [Brown University](/source/Brown_University).

==References==
{{Reflist}}

== External links ==
*[http://fairmodel.econ.yale.edu/ Ray C. Fair Home Page (Yale)]
*[https://www.nytimes.com/2004/08/15/magazine/15QUESTIONS.html Ray C. Fair Interview (New York Times Magazine)]

{{Authority control}}

{{DEFAULTSORT:Fair, Ray}}
Category:1942 births
Category:Living people
Category:Economists from California
Category:Yale University faculty
Category:California State University, Fresno, alumni
Category:Massachusetts Institute of Technology alumni
Category:Fellows of the Econometric Society
Category:21st-century American economists

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Adapted from the Wikipedia article [Ray Fair](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ray_Fair) by Wikipedia contributors ([contributor history](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ray_Fair?action=history)). Available under [Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International](https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/). Changes may have been made.