# 338Canada

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**338Canada**, also known as **Qc125** in [Quebec](/source/Quebec), is a Canadian political forecasting and commentary website that was founded in 2017. The website's name refers to the [338 federal constituencies](/source/List_of_Canadian_electoral_districts_(2013%E2%80%932023)) that were represented in the [House of Commons](/source/House_of_Commons_of_Canada) between 2015 and 2025. The website provides projections for [Canadian elections](/source/Elections_in_Canada), as well as [French](/source/French_presidential_elections_under_the_Fifth_Republic) and [American presidential elections](/source/United_States_presidential_election).

## History

338Canada was founded by Philippe J. Fournier in 2017 as an electoral statistics and projections website.[1] In 2020 and 2024, the site produced projections for the [2020 United States presidential election](/source/2020_United_States_presidential_election) and the [2024 United States presidential election](/source/2024_United_States_presidential_election).[2][3]

### 2025 Canadian federal election

In January 2025, the site gave the [Conservative Party of Canada](/source/Conservative_Party_of_Canada) a >99% chance to win the [2025 Canadian federal election](/source/2025_Canadian_federal_election),[4] but this has since reversed.[5] Fournier called the [2024 Toronto—St. Paul's federal by-election](/source/2024_Toronto%E2%80%94St._Paul's_federal_by-election) a "disaster for the [Liberals](/source/Liberal_Party_of_Canada)."[6] In April 2025, the month of the election, the projection had switched from a very likely Conservative win to a "safe" win for [Mark Carney](/source/Mark_Carney), of the Liberal Party.[7]

## Projections

The site creates federal projections, as well as projections for province-level [ridings](/source/Riding_(division)).[8] Overall, the site has a 89.7% projection rate across 17 total provincial and federal elections, with the most accurate projection being in the [2024 Nova Scotia general election](/source/2024_Nova_Scotia_general_election).[9][10]

## References

1. ["Philippe J. Fournier"](https://www.politico.com/contributor/philippe-j-fournier). *POLITICO*. Retrieved 15 January 2025.

1. ["A final 338Canada U.S. election projection: Where the race will be won or lost"](https://macleans.ca/politics/washington/a-final-338canada-u-s-election-projection-where-the-race-will-be-won-or-lost/). *Maclean's*. Retrieved 15 January 2025.

1. ["Donald Trump’s potential path to victory: 338Canada"](https://macleans.ca/politics/washington/donald-trumps-potential-path-to-victory-338canada/). *Maclean’s*. Retrieved 15 January 2025.

1. ["'Trudeau can't go on like this': Why Canada's PM is under growing pressure to quit"](https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/rest-of-world/trudeau-cant-go-on-like-this-why-canada-pm-is-under-growing-pressure-to-quit/articleshow/111291935.cms). *The Times of India*. Retrieved 15 January 2025.

1. ["'338Canada Odds of Winning the Most Seats': 338Canada Odds of Winning the Most Seats"](https://338canada.com/federal.htm). *338Canada*. Retrieved 26 March 2025.

1. ["Canada's Trudeau to stay in office after special election 'disaster'"](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/canadas-trudeau-under-fresh-pressure-after-special-election-disaster-2024-06-25/). *Reuters*. Retrieved 15 January 2025.

1. ["Among riding races for political leaders, Carney ‘safe’ bet to win; Singh likely to ‘lose,’ says 338Canada’s Fournier"](https://www.hilltimes.com/story/2025/04/21/among-riding-races-for-political-leaders-liberal-mark-carney-only-safe-bet-to-win-the-ndps-jagmeet-singh-likely-to-lose-says-338canadas-philipp/457139/). *Hill Times*. Retrieved 24 April 2025.

1. ["Richmond ridings projected by 338Canada.com"](https://www.richmond-news.com/local-news/richmond-ridings-projected-by-338canadacom-3144392). *Richmond News*. Retrieved 15 January 2025.

1. ["Federal polls show Conservative wave sweeping much of Nova Scotia"](https://www.saltwire.com/atlantic-canada/federal-polls-show-conservative-wave-sweeping-much-of-nova-scotia-100999261). *PNI Atlantic News*. Retrieved 15 January 2025.

1. ["The Record So Far"](https://338canada.com/record.htm). *338Canada*. Retrieved 15 January 2025.

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Adapted from the Wikipedia article [338Canada](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/338Canada) by Wikipedia contributors ([contributor history](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/338Canada?action=history)). Available under [Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International](https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/). Changes may have been made.